Olympics: Team Latvia 2022

[Stewie Griffin]

Girgensons have 2 points in 2 games in NHL so far this season. Late bloomer? He was after all drafted 14 overall.

Yeah he was drafted 14th overall...10 years ago. He gets a decent amount of minutes on one of the worst teams in the league, and one of their games was against the only team that might be worse.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Jaks, by the way, was scratched against Ava after being -12 in 6 games before. No idea if his assignments changed or something but with Nazarov at the helm he is just sinking.

 

[Eye of Ra]

And Buffalo is 2-0-0, cup contender?

Also if someone legitimately prefers Ro. Bukarts over Darzins in the lineup I'm just going to assume that person is insane.

I was thinking brother chemistry. I know Darzins is a good player.

 

[SoundAndFury]

I was thinking brother chemistry. I know Darzins is a good player.

It's a nice thought but they don't compliment each other that well since, to begin with, they don't compliment each other that well, LW is a most natural position to both of them and they play at a very different pace.

Furthermore, arguably even more importantly, with the season Roberts is having and him traditionally being useless against anything but C-grade competition he is a prime candidate for that 13th forward slot. In tournaments like the Olympics you want to play guys like Kenins more, and guys like Roberts less.

 

[Namejs]

And Buffalo is 2-0-0, cup contender?

Also if someone legitimately prefers Ro. Bukarts over Darzins in the lineup I'm just going to assume that person is insane.

Dude. Girgensons is literally the same age as Jelisejevs.

You really don't see the irony in this?

 

[Namejs]

Abols has 4 career games played in the ECHL...

Also, I wasn't jubilant, I'd say giddy is the better word. Indeed I found it very funny that the guy who is scoring in KHL is an average ECHLer and 1,5 tiers below the guy who actually is in the ECHL.

Now you are all "we need more data" when it was evidently clear as day just a week ago. This discussion wouldn't have lasted half as long if you weren't so confidently pompous about your half-assed estimations.

It was actually me who said "we can agree he isn't a lock until we see how AHL guys do" which you completely refuted at the time and yet, a week later you need "data points". You basically agreed with my initial statement after wasting all this time. And don't get me wrong, I fully understand you had to agree and would have never done so if not for this Tralmaks to the ECHL situation.

Not to mention you are back to your main horse - NHLe - which is basically a joke stat once again based on completely unreliable massive oversimplification.

Regarding the Karsums case, you didn't need to explain that to me, I knew it. One would say, that was the whole point I was making at the time. Yet what you were trying to do was say that Karsums has only declined by ~13 percent and will surely bounce back because "players don't age overnight like pears". Again, you were very confident at the time and offered me a bet instead of "taking time to aggregate data points".

Also since I re-read huge chunks of that discussion in the spring, it's absolutely hilarious how insistent you were about the things you said and Canada still ended up winning the whole damn thing You know, with the guy worse than Bukarts or Karsums on the roster.

You don't understand chance and probabilities.

If Canada was a stock option, shorting Canada before the World Champs would be a great investment. They were much worse than expected and I was completely correct in my assessments.

The fact that Canada won literally doesn't change anything. Shorting them with the same odds would be a wise decision every single time, if they had to re-play the World Champs a 100 times.

The fact that they won doesn't mean they were the best team or the 6th best team.

The fact that Jelisejevs/Girgensons/whoever had the most points on the team at some point early in the season doesn't mean he's the best player on that team or that he's going to continue scoring at the same rate or that he's improved.

The fact that Germany won silver against non-NHL competition doesn't mean they are the 2nd best team or that they have made massive improvements.

Hockey is a game of chance. Reality is based on chance as well.

The fact that something has happened, doesn't mean it was likely to happen.

Either your opinions are based on data or you're making them up. You look at small sample sizes and interpret all of these different events as inevitable, binary things. That's not how reality works.

If your meteorological model predicts an 80% chance of rain tomorrow, you bring an umbrella with you. What you're doing is saying that you don't think it will rain and that the model was wrong and you were right, because it didn't rain.

That's not how reality works. Bringing an umbrella with you was always the correct decision.

Testing the method happens by taking hundreds of these predictions and looking at whether it really does rain 80 out of 100 times on average. You don't look at individual events or small sample sizes.

If you're not capable of understanding this, there's no point in discussing it.

We will only be able to test the Jelisejevs/Tralmaks/Karsums assessments in a year or so, barring serious injuries.

 

[SoundAndFury]

You really don't see the irony in this?

I don't because I have watched 2 Sabres games this season as well. Both his goals were tip-ins. I feel it's safe to say one doesn't become a 30-goal scorer by just tipping the pucks in. He can still hardly elevate the puck with his actual shots.

That's the difference between you and I, I don't have to wait a year to form an opinion. Buffalo is actually a funny team. You know, seeing Skinner, Okposo play. I thought players don't age overnight like pairs.

If your meteorological model predicts an 80% chance of rain tomorrow, you bring an umbrella with you. What you're doing is saying that you don't think it will rain and that the model was wrong and you were right, because it didn't rain.

Except that's not what you are doing. Like the other poster aptly described, you refuse to take a look through the window if it's raining. You are just certain by default it is because you heard the prediction that there is an 80% rain chance yesterday.

Real-life evidence: like Karsums being cut by Krefeld or not making the OGQ team, Bukarts being dumped by both Severstal and Trinec, Jelisejevs playing 20 minutes per game for Riga, is just meaningless to you. You think it's all coincidence or misinterpretation ("he only plays there by accident or because he's Latvian" - your actual "analytical" explanation about the guy). You don't use the numbers to form a perspective, they are your perspective. And not only that, anyone who actually takes these things into consideration, anyone who thinks those things actually are the way they are for a reason, is just stupid, "not capable of understanding".

Therefore, you explaining to me how reality works was the best part. Truly amazing.

 

[Namejs]

I don't because I have watched 2 Sabres games this season as well. Both his goals were tip-ins. I feel it's safe to say one doesn't become a 30-goal scorer by just tipping the pucks in. He can still hardly elevate the puck with his actual shots.

That's the difference between you and I, I don't have to wait a year to form an opinion. Buffalo is actually a funny team. You know, seeing Skinner, Okposo play. I thought players don't age overnight like pairs.


Except that's not what you are doing. Like the other poster aptly described, you refuse to take a look through the window if it's raining. You are just certain by default it is because you heard the prediction that there is an 80% rain chance yesterday.

You make up your own opinions, exactly. You take pride in that and it boosts your ego. Unfortunately, organized sports is a closed system of probabilistic events dictated by skill and chance. You can't predict the future, analytics models can make predictions.

No individual observer exists who is able to make predictions better than the simplest analytics model. Your own opinions are formed based on experience in detecting and analyzing probabilistic events during the game of hockey. Except that the human brain is not capable of analyzing large data sets intuitively. So your evaluations are by definition not very good at all.

Looking through a window means detecting a certain value of a limited amount of data points. It gives us very limited (if any) value in making long-term predictions.

 

[SoundAndFury]

You make up your own opinions, exactly. You take pride in that and it boosts your ego. Unfortunately, organized sports is a closed system of probabilistic events dictated by skill and chance. You can't predict the future, analytics models can make predictions.

No individual observer exists who is able to make predictions better than the simplest analytics model. Your own opinions are formed based on experience in detecting and analyzing probabilistic events during the game of hockey. Except that the human brain is not capable of analyzing large data sets intuitively. So your evaluations are by definition not very good at all.

Looking through a window means detecting a certain value of a limited amount of data points. It gives us very limited (if any) value in making long-term predictions.

I edited my post, you probably didn't see it so I will repost it:

Real-life evidence: like Karsums being cut by Krefeld or not making the OGQ team, Bukarts being dumped by both Severstal and Trinec, Jelisejevs playing 20 minutes per game for Riga, is just meaningless to you. You think it's all coincidence or misinterpretation ("he only plays there by accident or because he's Latvian" - your actual "analytical" explanation about the guy). You don't use the numbers to form a perspective, they are your perspective. And not only that, anyone who actually takes these things into consideration, anyone who thinks those things actually are the way they are for a reason, is just stupid, "not capable of understanding".

The "individual observer", in these cases, isn't me. It's coaches, GMs, whoever. Actual hockey people whose job it is to make decisions "intuitively". That see those players every day. If you truly think you can make better judgement by looking at the stat sheet for 3 minutes, what can I tell you. You might be the Latvian John Chayka.

 

[SoundAndFury]

And don't get me wrong, analytics can tell a lot about hockey that the naked eye can't see. I believe the Moneyball story, stats and information can help massively. But if you think PPG pace and NHLe is that kind of eye-opening information, your model is a joke.

I actually legitimately wonder how do you evaluate defensemen without watching games. And please don't tell me it's NHLe.

 

[SoundAndFury]

Tralmaks actually scored a hattrick in his ECHL debut and was called back immediately.

 

[Eye of Ra]

Girgensons now has 7 points in 6 games. The man is a latebloomer.

 

[Dofs]

I'll cosplay Namejs a bit and say that such stats probably aren't sustainable in the long run. If 10 games later he is still on similar pace, then it will probably be fair to say that finally something clicked for him. But at least from watching highlights, I don't think Girgensons has turned into a major scorer just yet.

 

[Dofs]

1+1 in the end, what a bum The third period wasn't his best though

I just read his interview and now I get why he was pretty bad in the third period. He actually got injured (that he still misses his games for) in the second period of that game.

 

[SoundAndFury]

So in NA watch, Egle with 0 points in 2 games, Tralmaks 1+0 in 5, Rubins is actually doing very well (considering the expectations) and even got a half-a-day call up to the Leafs. Šilovs is also doing great thus far with .924 but these are A-level prospect numbers so either that's amazing or they are about to go crashing back to Earth.

 

[Eye of Ra]

Egle still with 0 points. Played 4 games.

Tralmaks have 2 points in 9 games in AHL.

Rubins have played 2 games in NHL.

 

[Eye of Ra]

Hard working veteran, Gints Meija, seems to be having a good season. E.Kulda could be a option aswell. Gritty dude.

A.Kulda is doing decent in DEL. Much experiance in that player. Could be a 7-8th guy.

Batna 5 points in 12 games in Liiga. I think he is better than someone like Smirnovs who is having a awful season.

Golovkovs and Marenis is doing great in Allsvenskan. Yes, its second league, but its still a good league.

Džeriņš and Jevpalovs putting up solid numbers in EBEL.

Lots of latvians in Czech league:

#	PLAYER	TEAM	GP	G	A	TP	PPG	PIM	+/-
1.	Martins Dzierkals (LW/RW)	HC Plzen	29	8	13	21	0.72	18	-7
2.	Roberts Bukarts (LW/RW)	HC Vitkovice	22	5	11	16	0.73	6	-1
3.	Uvis Janis Balinskis (D)	HC Litvinov	29	5	9	14	0.48	14	3
4.	Maris Bicevskis (C)	BK Mlada Boleslav	28	4	4	8	0.29	16	-5
5.	Patriks Zabusovs (F)	Berani Zlin	7	3	2	5	0.71	2	2
6.	Kristofers Bindulis (D)	Motor Ceske Budejovice	28	1	3	4	0.14	8	2
7.	Roberts Mamcics (D)	Berani Zlin	13	0	3	3	0.23	33	-5
8.	Guntis Galvins (D)	HC Vitkovice	28	0	2	2	0.07	2	-2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Latvia is fine. Depth is good.

 

[SoundAndFury]

I think real stories/question marks remaining are:

1. The whole Jelisejevs situation didn't become any clearer since he was injured. Naysayers will still believe he is a flash in the pan, his supporters will say after return from injury he is still playing 18 minutes per game, now under a different coach, still being productive and none of his competition for the spot is having a good season unless we were to look at C-grade leagues for guys like Krastenbergs or Marenis. Jevpalovs or Tralmaks who have been mentioned as his main competition before really don't come close.

2. A move to Finland added more creditability to Batna as a player. Stat-watching andies (not going to point fingers) now see him as 0.5 PPG guy in Finland, not some guy doing whatever in France. Consequently, he probably has a leg up on Dzerins or Bicevskis for that 4th line center spot.

3. Kalnins is having a terrible season. In a way, that doesn't change anything since he has a roster spot locked up due to seniority but still rather unfortunate.

 

[Namejs]

I don't want to re-start that argument about Jelisejevs again, we just have to wait before making any conclusions. With every point recorded and every goal scored, the likelihood of it being a fluke decreases. But the jury's still out on him and Tralmaks/Egle, both of whom have been starting to rack up some points in the AHL. Tralmaks recorded 7 points in 2 ECHL games. That's unprecedented in Latvian hockey. Just give it a season.

Obviously, we don't have a season until the Olympics. Realistically, unless Tralmaks starts scoring hat-tricks in the AHL, I'm not sure he's going to make the Olympic team. European coaches have a European bias, North American coaches have a North American bias. It's just the way it is.

A more pertinent question is whether Jelisejevs can be a shutdown player, irrespective of whether he's a (very) late bloomer or a flash in the pan?

I think these are the kinds of questions that will determine the fate of all of these bubble players.

We know for a fact that Batna, Marenis, Krastenbergs can be feisty grinder types and they can give it all in those 10 minutes of ice time. Do we prefer having some wrecking-balls on our 4th line or do we go for someone who potentially has better hands?

I don't see Jelisejevs making the top 3 lines. You have Dzierkals, Bukarts, heck, even Zabusovs should be in the conversation. But are they going to be able to do jack shit against Sweden and Finland? Dzierkals and Bukarts are undersized and Roberts Bukarts is pretty soft and not very useful in puck battles along the boards.

Realistically, we probably need 1-2 shutdown lines with Kenins-Girgensons providing some world class grinding magic on the 3rd line. Especially against Finland and Sweden. So I think it would be a little bit more rational to look for role players among the bubble players not spend time stat watching.

 

[GX]

Vitolins fills in some blanks in this interview:

- Tralmaks and Egle won't be invited to the team. If NHL guys do not participate, they will be replaced with European players
- We invited Toms Andersons, Nikolajs Jelisejevs, Rihards Marenis to the Visp tournament. Players, who are fighting for a spot, in case someone else drops out. Same applies for Patriks Ozols and Nauris Sejejs on defense
- Veterans Darzins, Sotnieks and Cibulskis are spared from the tournament, to 'protect' them; Batna not at the tournament due to 'Covid-19 related issues'

Vītoliņš iezīmē olimpiskā sastāva aprises, Daugaviņš raujas uz izlasi

 

[Namejs]

Vitolins fills in some blanks in this interview:

- Tralmaks and Egle won't be invited to the team. If NHL guys do not participate, they will be replaced with European players
- We invited Toms Andersons, Nikolajs Jelisejevs, Rihards Marenis to the Visp tournament. Players, who are fighting for a spot, in case someone else drops out. Same applies for Patriks Ozols and Nauris Sejejs on defense
- Veterans Darzins, Sotnieks and Cibulskis are spared from the tournament, to 'protect' them; Batna not at the tournament due to 'Covid-19 related issues'

Vītoliņš iezīmē olimpiskā sastāva aprises, Daugaviņš raujas uz izlasi

Bummed about Tralmaks and hoping Vitolinsh is not being a prick about it.

This has the potential of turning into a lose-lose situation for both parties involved over the long term, as I'm hearing Tralmaks isn't happy about this whole situation and rightly so.

 

[Namejs]

OK, so no Blueger, Balcers, Girgensons, Merzlikins. Possibly no Rubins.

Not sure about the AHL players, they're likely going to be available.

Goalies and D are going to be fine, but the forward lines are a steaming pile of dung now. We only have 1 good C. Indrasis will probably have to play C now. Batna is in, Dzerins too.

This is probably going to be almost the same roster as in this year's World Champs. I guess this increases our chances in the tournament, but it's kind of hard to be excited about it.

It's just not it.

 

[Eye of Ra]

Medal is realistic with no NHLers in the tournament.

 

[SoundAndFury]

More realistic - sure. But overall, still extremely unrealistic.

Mediocre goaltending, terrible defense and forwards who were decent 3 years ago.

 

[Eye of Ra]

More realistic - sure. But overall, still extremely unrealistic.

Mediocre goaltending, terrible defense and forwards who were decent 3 years ago.

Only Russia and Finland is stronger than Latvia on the paper. Its very even beetween all nations behind those 2.