Dallas is looking bad. At this point I think Vegas makes it and Dallas is out of the playoffs. 4 games left, let's see what happens.
There is one problem though. I think that Dallas still has the upper hand in this, even if Vegas would beat Dallas. Dallas has easier schedule for their remaining 3 games compared to Vegas (Vegas vs Dallas match excluded). Dallas also has 4 home games left and Vegas has only 1 home game left.
They both have played 78 games now. Dallas leads by 2 points. When they have played vs each other, each has 3 games to go. Vegas pretty much has to beat Dallas and it would be good if Vegas would do that on regular time, so 0 points for Dallas.
Let's imagine that Vegas beats Dallas on regular time. So being tied in points then. Those teams have these games remaining:
Seattle at
Dallas
Arizona at
Dallas
Anaheim at
Dallas
Seattle is on a 3 game winning streak, so they could be a decent opponent for Dallas. Arizona is last in the entire NHL in points and they have 8-9 losses in their last 10 games. That should be very easy points for Dallas, especially when Dallas plays at home. Anaheim is in the middle of the league in points and their last 10 games record is similar to that, around as many wins as losses. Played at Dallas, I'd favor Dallas.
San Jose at
Vegas
Vegas at Chicago
Vegas at St. Louis
San Jose is same level team as Anaheim. Chicago is pretty bad. Even if Vegas wins against both of them and Vegas would win against Dallas too, St. Louis has 9 or 10 wins in their last 10 games. St. Louis' home game. So Vegas basically has 2 playoff matches here and Dallas has some more match balls in tennis terms.
That's much easier schedule for Dallas. If they end up tied, then the amount of regular time wins is the first tie breaking rule. If Vegas takes full points from Dallas and keeps Dallas at 0 points gained, then they would be tied in the amount of regular time wins. Next rule is who has more OT wins. Shootout wins are excluded so if other team has more shootout wins, then the team with more shootout wins loses in the tie break procedure. I have no idea who is leading in that category or if they are tied again. It could go down to which team took more points in any Vegas vs Dallas matches this season.
I give something like 25%-33% chance for Vegas to go to playoffs and 66%-75% for Dallas. Anything can happen though so it's interesting.