The same management team and coaching staff will be selecting/coaching the 2026 Olympic team, as the current 4 Nations Cup team. Do we really think that group will take a significantly different approach to building out next year's team?
Point - McDavid - Stone
Crosby - MacKinnon - Reinhart
Hagel - Cirelli - Marner
Marchand - Bennett - Konecny
Jarvis
Toews - Makar
Morrissey - Parayko
Sanheim - Doughty
Harley
Injured: Theodore, Pietrangelo
Bolded players above are the players I have as absolute locks to make the 2026 team (barring injury of course). My presumption is that we'll take 25 players to the Olympics in Italy.
Up front, I think they'll move on from Marchand. He found himself a good role on this year's team and is playing as well as (maybe better than?) expected, but he's looking slow and at his age that speed will not improve.
Bennett has been really good, but in an Olympic context with IIHF rules and refereeing, I think the risk of having Bennett out there, playing the rugged game that he excels at, outweights the rewards. It might be a different story if he got slotted-in in the top-6, but he hasn't, so I think this is a one-time deal with Bennett at the best-on-best level.
Stone has played well at the 4 Nations, but alongside McDavid and Point his skating deficiencies are very glaring. However, he is such a smart player and able to contribute in so many ways, that I can't see him not be selected unless there is further deterioration in his skating or accumulated injury risk. I'd say there is a 75%+ chance of him cracking next year's squad.
Jarvis has showed pretty well in limited ice time, and is obviously a player that the brain trust has their eyes on given they selected him for this year's tournament. So same as Stone - 75%+ chance Jarvis makes it.
I'm a big fan of Konecny, going back to his days with the 67s, but I think he's looked a little overwhelmed at this calibre of competition. On paper he's an ideal bottom-6 forward for us - great motor, good speed, plays an in-your-face game and can contribute at ES, but with the team's struggles in scoring goals I can see him be replaced in 2026 by someone with a little more offensive upside. He also plays a position (RW) that we're fairly deep at. I'd say there's a 50% chance he makes it in 2026.
Cirelli is certainly a whipping boy on this year's team, but obviously has the trust of Cooper and is basically doing what he's been asked to do. I don't personally think he's skilled enough to compete at the best-on-best level, but does fill a niche and is a proven winner all the way up from junior. I can't help but wonder whether Thomas would have been selected for that #4C if he entered the season healthy and had more runway before the selections were made. Regardless, Thomas is a much better producer, you lose little in the way of defense relative to Cirelli, Thomas is much better on the faceoff dot, and Cirelli's puck-hounding skills can be covered by others. I'd say there's a 25% chance he's back in 2026.
Who's in? Thomas, for one. He can grab that #4C spot for all the reasons described above. Second, Scheifele is an interesting case as the 4 Nations management group and coaching staff passed on him, and honestly there was a lot to like about his start to the season. Perhaps the feeling is that he's not good enough defensively to play in the bottom-6, nor is he good enough to out-compete McDavid or MacKinnon for those top-6 centre positions. If the same approach to constructing this year's team is followed, he may find himself on the outside looking in again. Another factor is Crosby - is he going to slot-in on the wing next to MacKinnon again next year, or centre his own line? Crosby moving to the wing does open up a centre position, and here's hoping some lessons are learned about adding more scoring touch to the lineup. Why not slot Scheifele in at #3C and give him some defensively-conscious wingers to balance out the line?
With those obvious selections, we're looking a little short on LHS. This is where I'd like to see Fantilli and/or Celebrini take a leap in their game and nail-down a roster spot. Fantilli in particular is a player who checks a lot of boxes - big, strong, fast, and skilled - in the mold of a Patrick Marleau or Jeff Carter who were both very successful at the Olympics. Maybe he's a reach, but the package is enticing. With respect to Celebrini, I think he'll be ready by next year, even if its in a depth/spare forward role. Finally, Johnston is another young player who got off to a slow start, probably torpedoing his chances of making this team. He's picked it up since then, and if he continues with another strong playoff and start to next season I can't see him be left off.
Some other guys I considered upfront were Fantilli, Guenther, Vilardi (goal scoring from the wing position), Byfield (size, speed, strength on the wing), Lafreniere (needs a big bounce-back year, but probably not in the cards), Suzuki (needs to go to the World Championships)
Out:
Marchand
Bennett
Cirelli
In:
Thomas
Schiefele
Celebrini
Johnston
Point - McDavid - Stone
Crosby - MacKinnon - Reinhart
Hagel - Scheifele - Marner
Konecny - Thomas - Jarvis
Celebrini, Johnston
I think the defense is fairly straight-forward honestly.
Toews + Makar return as a pairing. Theodore + Pietrangelo return as a pairing. Morrissey returns. Maybe they're not exactly locks, but Harley and Sanheim likely return as well. Doughty likely ages out, after one of Canada's best international hockey careers. No real need for Parayko provided Pietrangelo is healthy. Final spot needs to go to a RHS, and that should be Weegar or Dobson.
Out:
Doughty
Parayko
In:
Weegar
Toews - Makar
Theodore - Pietrangelo
Morrissey - Weegar
Sanheim, Harley