Team Board Mock Draft Pick #12

[PHX FireBirds18]

I think the majority of scouting reports on Danielson are laughably incorrect. I feel like half the social media scouts commenting on his game haven’t seen him play. I don’t see any connection to what I’ve seen when I read about him. I’ve honestly only seen two decent scouting reports on him; Pronman and Tessler.

View attachment 683999
View attachment 684001
^ Pronman

Scouting Report: Nate Danielson - Smaht Scouting

Smaht Scouting's Josh Tessler takes an in-depth look at 2023 NHL Draft prospect Nate Danielson (C, Brandon).

smahtscouting.com

^ Tessler

I noticed that as well. Certainly odd to say the least.

Would Couturier be a good comp for Danielson??

I’m not sure I have an upside comparison that’s good enough here, but I see his floor being Craig Smith. Valuable 2-3C. Dependent on team depth. Not super sexy but a coveted player on teams taking a run every year in the playoffs. Will provide great utility on special teams. Maybe not that exciting to think about, but after our drafting record I’m fine with NHL players minimum. Like BA said. Stack nhl players on top of each other.

 

[PHX FireBirds18]

He’s not mean like Leonard, but he’s big, strong, assertive, hard working and backchecks. I think he’s more physical than Wood, anyway. I’m surprised Barlow isn’t getting more love in this poll. I think he’s the more BA version of Wood.

Love Barlow. I think the focus on pick 6 is taking away the excitement of what’s available at 12. There’s just several players in that range that are intriguing and personally im good with whomever our staff picks.

 

[rt]

Love Barlow. I think the focus on pick 6 is taking away the excitement of what’s available at 12. There’s just several players in that range that are intriguing and personally im good with whomever our staff picks.

He’s above average at all things but seems to be very intelligent on the ice, has a shot that is a difference maker, and has all the hallmarks of being a character contributor.

From what I watched in 21/22 and 22/23 - he’s made a ton of progress in his game. And he was already highly touted.

I think he’s become a plus-skater and a plus-stick handler. It’s extremely hard to protect the puck and go inside, to the net, and get a shot off mid-stride, with a guy on you. And he does it a lot. That’s coming with progress to his feet and his puck handling and his overall strength.

I also believe his shot has improved quite a bit. His catch and release, the way it’s coming off of his stick and how he’s added a mid-stride wrister. He was all about hanging out in and ripping one timers. That and mop up. But he’s really bringing some deceptive shot selections to the table these days. And he’s deadly as the bumper on the PP, too. Handling in a hurry, turning and firing.

There was a lot of Hoffman in there. But there’s a lot more Horvat, now.

And I’m talking offense only. He’s also very good defensively, great compete, and kills penalties well. Not like a Hoffman, at all.

Another factor is that he’s doing it on a minus team with a below league average offense, little depth, and two 5’10 linemates without NHL futures (one undrafted and the other a late round pick). Owen Sound ain’t Winnipeg.

I had Cutter Gauthier 5th or 6th overall in the last draft. Barlow is pretty much a winger version of that. More or less.

Barlow had 59gp and 46g this season. How does he stack up against recent Top 10 picks from the CHL in their draft years?

2022
4th Wright - 63gp 32g
8th Savoie - 65gp 35g

2021 *COVID*

2020
1st Lafreniere - 52gp 35g
2nd Byfield - 45gp 32g
8th Quinn - 62gp 52g
9th Rossi - 56gp 39g
10th Perfetti - 61gp 37g

2019
3rd Dach - 62gp 25g
7th Cozens- 68gp 34g

2018
2nd Svechnikov - 44gp 40g
5th Hayton - 63gp 21g
6th Zadina - 57gp 44g

2017
1st Hischier - 57gp 38g
2nd Patrick - 33gp 20g
6th Glass - 69gp 32g
9th Rasmussen - 50gp 32g
10th Tippett - 60gp 44g

That’s 17 kids in those five classes. Barlow would rank 2nd among them in goals.

On average, those 17 profile as a 5th overall pick (5.47th overall - lol), who had 57gp and 34g.

What does that mean? Well nothing. Because it’s just goal scoring. But among top 10 picks in the NHL draft, he’s one of the most prolific goal scorers in recent history.

I think he definitely does fit the typical profile of a Top 10 pick. Exceeds it really. Given he doesn’t have mobility or size or character or nationality concerns and his goal scoring is so much higher than typical. He grades out on these VERY narrow parameters as more like a Top 5 pick in an average top five (at least recently).

I’ve got him 11th but I think I just convinced myself to move him to 10th and knock Reinbacher down one.

 

[NA Hockey]

He’s above average at all things but seems to be very intelligent on the ice, has a shot that is a difference maker, and has all the hallmarks of being a character contributor.

From what I watched in 21/22 and 22/23 - he’s made a ton of progress in his game. And he was already highly touted.

I think he’s become a plus-skater and a plus-stick handler. It’s extremely hard to protect the puck and go inside, to the net, and get a shot off mid-stride, with a guy on you. And he does it a lot. That’s coming with progress to his feet and his puck handling and his overall strength.

I also believe his shot has improved quite a bit. His catch and release, the way it’s coming off of his stick and how he’s added a mid-stride wrister. He was all about hanging out in and ripping one timers. That and mop up. But he’s really bringing some deceptive shot selections to the table these days. And he’s deadly as the bumper on the PP, too. Handling in a hurry, turning and firing.

There was a lot of Hoffman in there. But there’s a lot more Horvat, now.

And I’m talking offense only. He’s also very good defensively, great compete, and kills penalties well. Not like a Hoffman, at all.

Another factor is that he’s doing it on a minus team with a below league average offense, little depth, and two 5’10 linemates without NHL futures (one undrafted and the other a late round pick). Owen Sound ain’t Winnipeg.

I had Cutter Gauthier 5th or 6th overall in the last draft. Barlow is pretty much a winger version of that. More or less.

Barlow had 59gp and 46g this season. How does he stack up against recent Top 10 picks from the CHL in their draft years?

2022
4th Wright - 63gp 32g
8th Savoie - 65gp 35g

2021 *COVID*

2020
1st Lafreniere - 52gp 35g
2nd Byfield - 45gp 32g
8th Quinn - 62gp 52g
9th Rossi - 56gp 39g
10th Perfetti - 61gp 37g

2019
3rd Dach - 62gp 25g
7th Cozens- 68gp 34g

2018
2nd Svechnikov - 44gp 40g
5th Hayton - 63gp 21g
6th Zadina - 57gp 44g

2017
1st Hischier - 57gp 38g
2nd Patrick - 33gp 20g
6th Glass - 69gp 32g
9th Rasmussen - 50gp 32g
10th Tippett - 60gp 44g

That’s 17 kids in those five classes. Barlow would rank 2nd among them in goals.

On average, those 17 profile as a 5th overall pick (5.47th overall - lol), who had 57gp and 34g.

What does that mean? Well nothing. Because it’s just goal scoring. But among top 10 picks in the NHL draft, he’s one of the most prolific goal scorers in recent history.

I think he definitely does fit the typical profile of a Top 10 pick. Exceeds it really. Given he doesn’t have mobility or size or character or nationality concerns and his goal scoring is so much higher than typical. He grades out on these VERY narrow parameters as more like a Top 5 pick in an average top five (at least recently).

I’ve got him 11th but I think I just convinced myself to move him to 10th and knock Reinbacher down one.

I know you mention that it is only goals but it is important to note that he only had 33 assists in 59 games. Also, he only 79 points which is pretty good but would put him near the bottom of all of the players mentioned in point totals.

His advanced physical development is also a thing to consider when projecting into the future.

 

[rt]

I know you mention that it is only goals but it is important to note that he only had 33 assists in 59 games. Also, he only 79 points which is pretty good but would put him near the bottom of all of the players mentioned in point totals.

His advanced physical development is also a thing to consider when projecting into the future.

1) Assists are low, note;
A) These are ONLY top 10 picks
B) The linemate situation on OS

2) Goals only puts him 2nd, and would be elite compared to other 5th overall (average) picks. The lack of assist is why I dropped down to “5-10” and used the word “standard”. Especially when you factor back in the size, skating, complete two way game, and intangibles. He’s a top ten pick in any standard draft.

3) RE: Advanced physical development; this gets talked about a lot and people have a few cherry picked names they like to point to, but I’m not convinced this is more than an urban legend. I can come up with a handful of examples right off the top of my head where this was a benefit and and a handful where it was a detriment. Same with left handed kids and kids with red hair. I’m not going to just accept the idea that early onset whiskers and a barrel chest means there’s less upside.

 

[rt]

EDIT: thinking of just recent drafts, and just early picks, I’m recalling criticisms of a similar nature (too physically mature, too easy against kids, what happens when the field catches up) levied against Aaron Ekblad, Timo Meier, and Jakob Chychrun.

 

[NA Hockey]

1) Assists are low, note;
A) These are ONLY top 10 picks
B) The linemate situation on OS

2) Goals only puts him 2nd, and would be elite compared to other 5th overall (average) picks. The lack of assist is why I dropped down to “5-10” and used the word “standard”. Especially when you factor back in the size, skating, complete two way game, and intangibles. He’s a top ten pick in any standard draft.

3) RE: Advanced physical development; this gets talked about a lot and people have a few cherry picked names they like to point to, but I’m not convinced this is more than an urban legend. I can come up with a handful of examples right off the top of my head where this was a benefit and and a handful where it was a detriment. Same with left handed kids and kids with red hair. I’m not going to just accept the idea that early onset whiskers and a barrel chest means there’s less upside.

First off to clarify, I think he is a top 20 pick and could see him a world where he is top 10 but I don't see it as a slam dunk.

Assists are very low when compared to other top 10 picks, but lower than most other 1st round picks after pick 10 as well.

In regards to line mates, I don't think his quality of linemate was that bad in relation to other top 10 picks. He only had 10 points more than his next closest teammate. A lot of other top 10 picks were significantly higher scoring than their next closest teammate.

Re physical development, to me he gets by by being bigger and stronger than everyone on the ice in the OHL and that has led directly to his success. At the next level that will not be the case. He hasn't had to learn all of the problem solving skills required at the next level. Will he get bigger and stronger than he is now? Yes. Will his strength and size increase at the same rate in relation to his peers? No. Will he be bigger and stronger than everyone in the NHL? No

Lastly, small sample sizes but his Hlinka and U18 were middling. He played ok in both but was not great in either.

I wish him the best but I have a few small doubts about the next step. It's a big one for everyone.

 

[rt]

First off to clarify, I think he is a top 20 pick and could see him a world where he is top 10 but I don't see it as a slam dunk.

My assertion is that he is a generally of the quality profile found in any standard 5th-10th overall pick in any standard draft.

He’s 10th on my list for this particular draft because it’s particularly good.

Assists are very low when compared to other top 10 picks, but lower than most other 1st round picks after pick 10 as well.

In regards to line mates, I don't think his quality of linemate was that bad in relation to other top 10 picks. He only had 10 points more than his next closest teammate. A lot of other top 10 picks were significantly higher scoring than their next closest teammate.

He’s on a minus team with a below league average offense, little depth, and two 5’10 linemates without NHL futures (one undrafted and the other a late round pick). Owen Sound ain’t Winnipeg.

Re physical development, to me he gets by by being bigger and stronger than everyone on the ice in the OHL and that has led directly to his success. At the next level that will not be the case. He hasn't had to learn all of the problem solving skills required at the next level. Will he get bigger and stronger than he is now? Yes. Will his strength and size increase at the same rate in relation to his peers? No. Will he be bigger and stronger than everyone in the NHL? No

First, I now doubt that you watched this player in league play. Your assessment of his game is way off. Have you watched his play develop over the last couple of years, while watching Owen Sound games? I think the answer is no.

“He gets by by being bigger and stronger than everyone on the ice in the OHL” is not a statement anyone who watches him play in the OHL regularly would ever say.

Next, I’ve heard that little story about physical maturity many times. I don’t believe it’s reality based. Or at least I’m highly skeptical. I have seen this argument used against players who did ultimately bust. And I’ve seen it used against players who ultimately succeeded. I expect it’s irrelevant. I’ve watched every draft since 1996 and I’ve followed them very closely since 2003. This isn’t a generalization I’m willing to give any weight to unless I see some shred of evidence that it has merit.

 

[NA Hockey]

My assertion is that he is a generally of the quality profile found in any standard 5th-10th overall pick in any standard draft.

He’s 10th on my list for this particular draft because it’s particularly good.

He’s on a minus team with a below league average offense, little depth, and two 5’10 linemates without NHL futures (one undrafted and the other a late round pick). Owen Sound ain’t Winnipeg.

First, I now doubt that you watched this player in league play. Your assessment of his game is way off. Have you watched his play develop over the last couple of years, while watching Owen Sound games? I think the answer is no.

“He gets by by being bigger and stronger than everyone on the ice in the OHL” is not a statement anyone who watches him play in the OHL regularly would ever say.

Next, I’ve heard that little story about physical maturity many times. I don’t believe it’s reality based. Or at least I’m highly skeptical. I have seen this argument used against players who did ultimately bust. And I’ve seen it used against players who ultimately succeeded. I expect it’s irrelevant. I’ve watched every draft since 1996 and I’ve followed them very closely since 2003. This isn’t a generalization I’m willing to give any weight to unless I see some shred of evidence that it has merit.

OK you win he is a top 10 pick for sure. I hope he is and has great career.

In reality, I don't think he is a good as most of the players that you listed as top 10 picks from before and yes I have watched him a lot over the years. Both in the GTHL, the OHL and internationally.

Based on your comments, I wonder if you have seen him much yourself.

The sad thing is I really like the player but I do have reservations, thats all.

In regards to the bolded, I have heard MANY people in and around the OHL say the same thing. Early maturity doesn't affect all players the same but I have seen many many players who physically dominate in junior to being a man in a boys game, not translate as well to the next level.

 

[Vinny Boombatz]

Barlow isn't overly physical is the thing...he may be fully matured, that beard is something else, but his play style is not so rough and tough, but more firm and leveraged.

he seems to be able to find inside areas to score, but his playmaking is the reason why I have him outside the top 10 but inside the top 15

 

[rt]

OK you win he is a top 10 pick for sure.

You aren’t even reading what I’m posting.

In reality, I don't think he is a good as most of the players that you listed as top 10 picks

That’s a fine statement. No issues with that.

from before and yes I have watched him a lot over the years. Both in the GTHL, the OHL and internationally.

Based on your comments, I wonder if you have seen him much yourself.

I don’t believe you.

In regards to the bolded, I have heard MANY people in and around the OHL say the same thing.

I don’t believe you.

Early maturity doesn't affect all players the same but I have seen many many players who physically dominate in junior to being a man in a boys game, not translate as well to the next level.

If you’d paid attention over the years as you say you have you’d know it cuts both ways. Many, many cases of both.

 

[NA Hockey]

You aren’t even reading what I’m posting.


That’s a fine statement. No issues with that.

I don’t believe you.


I don’t believe you.

If you’d paid attention over the years as you say you have you’d know it cuts both ways. Many, many cases of both.

= I was being a bit sarcastic obviously, I have definitely read what you are saying.

= Thanks

= You don't believe me? lol Why would I lie? I really actually don't care, was just stating my opinion and having a debate. I was trying to be cordial and nice but whatever. I don't believe you know much either so we are even.

= It does cut both ways (I think I said that in my earlier post that it doesn't affect all players) but to ME it goes negative more often than not and is a factor to consider when scouting.

 

[NA Hockey]

Barlow isn't overly physical is the thing...he may be fully matured, that beard is something else, but his play style is not so rough and tough, but more firm and leveraged.

he seems to be able to find inside areas to score, but his playmaking is the reason why I have him outside the top 10 but inside the top 15

Totally agree.

Fully mature to me means he doesn't have much if any physical maturing to do, which is a bit of a concern.

I think of him as a 10-20 player

 

[rt]

Barlow isn't overly physical is the thing...he may be fully matured, that beard is something else, but his play style is not so rough and tough, but more firm and leveraged.

I mostly agree. His physicality is inconsistent. I think it could be developed. I saw it more the 2nd half of this season than the 1st half which was more than last season.

Saw a bit more animated play and general swagger born from physical confidence, too. Which I think bodes well. Not like Peter Mueller who, on paper, was a similar player that would be easy for someone who didn’t actually watch them to draw comparisons with.

he seems to be able to find inside areas to score, but his playmaking is the reason why I have him outside the top 10 but inside the top 15

Fair. I have him 10th. So I think we mostly agree. I think that this is a great top ten, though. Much better than average. So much so that a player with Barlow’s profile is likely to go 9th-13th, when in a typical year, I think he goes 6th-9th quite comfortably, more often than not.

My actual point in all of this is that while I like several options better at 6th (and probably there will be one or two I like better at 12th) if and I say IF we do get him at 12th, to me, that represents tremendous value. Something like 6th or 7th or 8th last draft.

Which won’t be unique to Barlow in that spot. Which is my point. He’s an easy example to point to for highlighting the strength of the class in this area. Which makes me feel pretty good about that Chychrun trade.

 

[rt]

…which is a bit of a concern.

Except when it’s not. Which is as often as not.

 

[PHX FireBirds18]

@rt That response on Barlow was gold. Feel like you could sell me on drafting rustic auburn sunset…. I must say I’m always missing something from the player when I’m so limited in what I’m able to view from the player. In my limited viewings Barlow isn’t someone that you get super excited about because his game can be muted. They still show up in the box score though but so did Strome so that’s scary. That said, I see a lot Alex Killorn in his game. Not someone that gets talked about a lot, but was a valuable piece on a team that almost completed a 3peat!

 

[Heldig]

EDIT: thinking of just recent drafts, and just early picks, I’m recalling criticisms of a similar nature (too physically mature, too easy against kids, what happens when the field catches up) levied against Aaron Ekblad, Timo Meier, and Jakob Chychrun.

I think there are just as many examples of the physically mature guys that excel in junior and then the field catches up and they are less effective.

Byfield comes to mind.

 

[rt]

I think there are just as many examples of the physically mature guys that excel in junior and then the field catches up and they are less effective.

Byfield comes to mind.

That’s my point. It goes both ways so often that it’s about as worthy of consideration as eye color or hair color. I’m not sure Byfield is a great example as he was pretty skinny. But there are many examples that do work. And many that show the opposite.

EDIT: I could be convinced otherwise with actual data. But it’s too subjective. I’ve held the opposite view previously. But I’ve time as I’ve seen it proven correct in one case and then incorrect in the next, over and over, I’ve grown highly skeptical that it has any merit.