Value of: Tarasenko (50%) @2.5M

[bert]

He's a better player, but one GM overpaying for Monahan doesn't mean all GM's will suddenly start overpaying for all available forwards. 2 first have already been traded, how many more 1sts do you think will be traded this deadline? And do you honestly feel that Tarasenko is going to be one of the next best available guys, going for a 1st when there still haven't been any defensemen traded yet? I mean, its possible, but not a guarantee. I'd just wait until closer to the deadline if Ottawa is set on a 1st for this guy.

I mean you quoted my post he went for one last year, he is having a better season he isnt coming off an injury and he will be cheaper.

So are all these teams overpaying or are they just paying what it costs for an inexpensive player at the trade deadline which is always a sellers market. I actually agree with you the Oilers should be going after another RD. But that doesnt change the value on the player and what the market has indicated not only last year but seems to be trending that way this year too. Maybe he isnt a fit in Edmonton but he likely would be a good addition for another team that lacks scoring and a veteran prescence.

How many UFA's are available for sale that have Stanley Cup pedigree, scoring at a 60 point pace with limited minutes and opportunity. That are playing well and can be had for 2.5 million. I dont think its a very long list.

 

[TFHockey]

Isn't Holloway himself still just a mid first-round magic bean? Unless I'm unaware of a recent breakout, he hasn't established yet that he's going to produce in the NHL and we're coming up on 4 years since he was drafted.

Holloway has played himself into a regular spot in the line up. Looks good with the big club. I think with the Oilers cap situation they need guys like Holloway to step up so it is unlikely he is available for trade this year.

 

[bert]

I don't think any fans of teams projected to pick in the top-20 of the draft this year would offer up their pick for Holloway. I could be wrong.

I agree it will be a late first if they get one. No one is trading a top 20 pick this year for a rental.

 

[LTIR]

Isn't Holloway himself still just a mid first-round magic bean? Unless I'm unaware of a recent breakout, he hasn't established yet that he's going to produce in the NHL and we're coming up on 4 years since he was drafted.

He is a bean that has finally sprouted. Oilers aren't going to trade someone who they managed to develop correctly for once.

Would Sens trade Greig for a mid first round pick? Or for a rental?

 

[SpezDispenser]

He likes OTT??? Extend that man now....!!!!!

For realz

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Prospects can absolutely lose value relative to draft position with normal development. Jake Bean is a clear example of this. 13OA in 2016. Caught in a deep system. Finally breaks through D+5, forcing his way into regular ice time with his play. Wanting a greater role, Canes make him available after the season. Traded at the 2021 draft for 44OA.

 

[LTIR]

Prospects can absolutely lose value relative to draft position with normal development. Jake Bean is a clear example of this. 13OA in 2016. Caught in a deep system. Finally breaks through D+5, forcing his way into regular ice time with his play. Wanting a greater role, Canes make him available after the season. Traded at the 2021 draft for 44OA.

Sure, that's pretty common but you also have to look at how a prospect has projected and not just the stat line.

If Holloway is worth a 2nd rounder now then so is Greig.
Are Jarventine , Sokolov and Kleven 3rd or 4th rounders?

It's not always cut n dry.
Broberg for example is one more struggling NHL stint away from being worth a 3rd rounder or worse.

 

[bert]

He is a bean that has finally sprouted. Oilers aren't going to trade someone who they managed to develop correctly for once.

Would Sens trade Greig for a mid first round pick? Or for a rental?

Greig and Holloway aren't the same thing but I get what you are saying. Holloway is closer to Jarventie than he is Greig.

If the Oilers are trading Holloway it should be for a defenceman.

 

[NyQuil]

He likes OTT??? Extend that man now....!!!!!

I’m as shocked as you.

 

[LTIR]

I’m as shocked as you.

Well hopefully they find a way to add him back next season even if they trade him as a rental this deadline.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I mean you quoted my post he went for one last year, he is having a better season he isnt coming off an injury and he will be cheaper.

So are all these teams overpaying or are they just paying what it costs for an inexpensive player at the trade deadline which is always a sellers market. I actually agree with you the Oilers should be going after another RD. But that doesnt change the value on the player and what the market has indicated not only last year but seems to be trending that way this year too. Maybe he isnt a fit in Edmonton but he likely would be a good addition for another team that lacks scoring and a veteran prescence.

How many UFA's are available for sale that have Stanley Cup pedigree, scoring at a 60 point pace with limited minutes and opportunity. That are playing well and can be had for 2.5 million. I dont think its a very long list.

I'm not saying he won't. I'm just saying that the deadline is weird. Just because he went for a 1st last year doesn't mean he will again because the market changes. For example, for the longest time, goalies were available for nothing. This year, there don't seem to be any decent goalies available at all, and if they are, the price will be higher because three really good teams are looking for help in net. There also seems to be few centres and defensemen available this year, and if GM's are looking for those to upgrade, then wingers might go for less.

Personally, I only think one team overpaid so far (Winnipeg), I think the Vancouver/Calgary return was fine.

 

[bert]

I'm not saying he won't. I'm just saying that the deadline is weird. Just because he went for a 1st last year doesn't mean he will again because the market changes. For example, for the longest time, goalies were available for nothing. This year, there don't seem to be any decent goalies available at all, and if they are, the price will be higher because three really good teams are looking for help in net. There also seems to be few centres and defensemen available this year, and if GM's are looking for those to upgrade, then wingers might go for less.

Personally, I only think one team overpaid so far (Winnipeg), I think the Vancouver/Calgary return was fine.

I dont think its isolated to just last year or this year. Players at the deadline on expiring contracts have been getting these types of returns for years. Anyways who knows maybe he wont this year I am just basing it on the comparable deals I have seen for a while. I feel like there has never been this type of premium for D men that can play right. There are so few good ones that can log top 4 minutes the premium for this type of player is gonna get nuts. Tanev is going to bring back a massive haul. But to me that's who Edmonton should be going after.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I dont think its isolated to just last year or this year. Players at the deadline on expiring contracts have been getting these types of returns for years. Anyways who knows maybe he wont this year I am just basing it on the comparable deals I have seen for a while. I feel like there has never been this type of premium for D men that can play right. There are so few good ones that can log top 4 minutes the premium for this type of player is gonna get nuts. Tanev is going to bring back a massive haul. But to me that's who Edmonton should be going after.

Different types of players go for different returns, and typically, we only see around 5 first rounders traded each deadline. If we go by most years, we're already down 2 of those 5. So if you think Taraseenko is one of the top 3 guys left available in the eyes of the GM's who are going to spend a pick (he might be, again, I'm not saying he isn't), then your point is justified. All I am saying is that just because he went for x last year, doesn't mean he is going for x again.

 

[bert]

Different types of players go for different returns, and typically, we only see around 5 first rounders traded each deadline. If we go by most years, we're already down 2 of those 5. So if you think Taraseenko is one of the top 3 guys left available in the eyes of the GM's who are going to spend a pick (he might be, again, I'm not saying he isn't), then your point is justified. All I am saying is that just because he went for x last year, doesn't mean he is going for x again.

Thats not what I am saying though. We have multiple examples of similar or even worse players getting traded for first round picks or the equivalent in a prospect. Or an equivalent value in total assets. Its not just isolated to what he returned last year.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Thats not what I am saying though. We have multiple examples of similar or even worse players getting traded for first round picks or the equivalent in a prospect. Or an equivalent value in total assets. Its not just isolated to what he returned last year.

Well, you did make that argument, but I digress. It isn't always about the quality of player. It's also about position and about what skills that player brings. If one of the contenders wants a scoring winger, he'll probably get a 1st. If the contenders are more concerned with other positions, it might be tougher to get that 1st.

If Monahan got a 1st, then Tarasenko should. But GM's are weird this time of year. If Tarasenko is the guy that a contender thinks will put them over the top, he'll go for a 1st. If no contenders are sold, then he might not.

 

[frightenedinmatenum2]

A 2nd round pick that becomes a 1st if the team makes the conference final for Tarasenko and a future 3rd round pick for the retention. Ottawa also takes back an expiring contract to make it cap in/out.

I would love for it to be a 1st straight up, and it might be. He got one last year.

One thing about Monahan is that he is a center. There was only 2-3 top 6 centers on the market as rentals. Monahan would not have gotten a 1st as a winger.

 

[Gurglesons]

I’d give up a 2nd as the Pens for him.

I’d be interested in packaging some stuff for him and Brannstrom or Hamonic too.

 

[KevinRedkey]

He is a bean that has finally sprouted. Oilers aren't going to trade someone who they managed to develop correctly for once.

Would Sens trade Greig for a mid first round pick? Or for a rental?

At this point, Holloway is closer to Jarventie than Greig, and Ottawa isn't chasing a cup - so the situation isn't even close to the same for rentals.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Isn't Holloway himself still just a mid first-round magic bean? Unless I'm unaware of a recent breakout, he hasn't established yet that he's going to produce in the NHL and we're coming up on 4 years since he was drafted.

He was a first round pick magic bean. Now he's a young NHL'er showing signs of breaking out and becoming a very good player. What most teams hope their mid-first round magic beans become.

 

[TFHockey]

I’d give up a 2nd as the Pens for him.

I’d be interested in packaging some stuff for him and Brannstrom or Hamonic too.

I gotta be honest here, I don't think the Pens should be buyers. I think it's time to start a rebuild and move Sidney to a team who has a legit shot. How good would he look in an Avs uniform?

 

[Hale The Villain]

He's still a good 2nd line forward. Could see his play falling off a cliff in his mid-30s but he's still quite effective right now.

There will be a lot of teams willing to pay a 2nd for him. Could see him getting a late 1st from a contender, or at least a 2nd + 3rd/decent prospect.

 

[biturbo19]

I’m super curious if WPG and VAN set the market or if what they paid is going to look silly when teams are picking up some of the second tier guys for much less.

I don't think Tarasenko is really in the same "market" as Lindholm and Monahan in the first place. Centers are always going to command a premium. Tank can't do that, and most of the guys left that actually can play Center are...lackluster options. Henrique, Hayes with multiple years left, Laughton? They're also all guys who are probably better off as Wingers ideally anyway.

So Vancouver and Winnipeg jumped the market to grab a scarce resource early. Basically drained half the market in the process.


I also wouldn't even necessarily completely count either of VAN or WPG out of the market to grab some of these "second tier" Winger guys for much less still as well. Entirely plausible that Vancouver will still be looking to add a Top-6/9 type winger to bump Pius Suter down the the 3rd/4th line.

Tarasenko would fit. Would potentially look pretty good playing with Pettersson. If the acquisition price is right, and low enough.