GDT: TankTown Express: Everyone Is Broken

[TruBlu]

Some people just don't understand how the game works. Binnington played a hell of a game and can't really be blamed on any of the goals in my opinion.. This game was a perfect example of why I think Binnington has had a solid season despite less-than-great numbers. He did everything he had to, made the big saves when we needed them most. What more can you ask of a goalie?

Hell of a fun game to watch!

Binny isn't the biggest problem, but he's also part of the problem. He reminds me of Moose in his play. He's fine as long as people are kept on the perimeter and lobbing low danger shots, but once he's shaken a little he starts letting them in like a flood valve that's sprung wide open. You're not going anywhere when your goalie is sub .900 and letting in over 3 goals per game.

 

[542365]

Best team game the Blues have played all year. Interesting.

Not even close. That was the shutout of Edmonton.

 

[542365]

Binny isn't the biggest problem, but he's also part of the problem. He reminds me of Moose in his play. He's fine as long as people are kept on the perimeter and lobbing low danger shots, but once he's shaken a little he starts letting them in like a flood valve that's sprung wide open. You're not going anywhere when your goalie is sub .900 and letting in over 3 goals per game.

To further your point, of the goalies who have played 10 games, Binnington ranks 52nd out of 64 in goals saved above expected. He’s bad. Again. The defense is bad too. Both can be, and in this case ARE, true. He isn’t “The problem”. Replacing him with a great goalie doesn’t make us Cup contenders by any stretch, but he’s certainly part of it.

 

[bleedblue1223]

During 5v5, Binnington has given up 62 goals and his xGA has been 62.9. During PK his given up 21 with an xGA of 16.02. Binnington can be at fault for PK, but he's not really the issue at 5v5. It would be nice if he was at his best where his actual GA is below the xGA, but in general, his 5v5 play this year has not been the issue, the defense has been more of the issue.​

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5 less 5v5 goals would put him at a sv% of 91.5%, and near the top 10 GA vs xGA differential among goalies with at least 800 minutes played. So, yes, he is underperforming his contract, but it's not all that significant.​

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It continues to go back to our bigger issue, the PK. Which from the last time I posted about it when it was the worst in history when they started tracking the stats, it is now just the 12th worst in history dating back to 77/78.​

 

[Reality Czech]

To further your point, of the goalies who have played 10 games, Binnington ranks 52nd out of 64 in goals saved above expected. He’s bad. Again. The defense is bad too. Both can be, and in this case ARE, true. He isn’t “The problem”. Replacing him with a great goalie doesn’t make us Cup contenders by any stretch, but he’s certainly part of it.

Ugh, relying on stats to judge goalies is not the way to go. If you disagree with me, you are disagreeing with Wayne Gretzky as well. My eyes tell me that he's helped us win more games this year than helped us lose. The Wild game the other day was one of the few games this year where I thought he looked really bad.

John Gibson is even lower on that list than Binnington is and no one can convince me he's one of the worst goalies in the league. Sure, advanced stats might help explain some things but context is more important. People are fooling themselves if they think replacing Binnington with most other goalies in the league would make much difference.

 

[BlueSeal]

Fix the blueline first. If Binny still looks bad, he’s the problem. Our pairings are severely lacking and fixing just that or even shoring it up will greatly improve the team.

 

[stl76]

Not even close. That was the shutout of Edmonton.

We’re probably talking about different things. There was a resiliency and spark of team-first attitude last night that I have not seen before this season. I’m not talking about the best performance or team structure, I’m talking about everyone looking like they were bought in and pulling in the same direction. Not sure it means anything ultimately, but I found it interesting.

 

[Brian39]

Damn, Samsonov has been crap both games vs us. We lit him up both games this year. 5 this game, 3 out of 4 of the shootout chances and 4 last game. Both games he let in some really bad goals. Neither game is close if he puts up his usual .914 save percentage.

Leafs are 3rd best team in the league by point capture. I don't think a loss where they put up 5 and their goalie shit the bed is indicative of the type of team they are. It will cause their fanbase to explode because its Toronto's fan base. But grand scheme of things, it doesn't matter for them at all. They aren't facing us in the playoffs, that's for sure.

I mostly agree with the sentiment here, but I think there is a very good argument that Samsonov's .914 through 15 games this year isn't his 'usual' self and that the goaltending giving away games is a valid concern in Toronto.

Samsonov was genuinely not good in 2021/22 or 2020/21. He posted an .898 SV% and .351 quality start percentage over those two years. Washington decided not to give him an $875k qualifying offer. He started the year on fire, posting a .939 through 11 games. He's posted an .821, .842, .882, and .844 in the 4 games since that 11 game heater. It's definitely reasonable to think that he might not be good enough to win them a playoff series.

Matt Murray has been better this season, but he carries his own set of question marks. He's had major injury issues over the last several seasons and has already missed time this year. He had multiple seasons of sub-par play when healthy and I'm not sold that he can stay healthy and sustain what he's doing.

I don't think Leafs fans should freak out over this game and I'm rooting for Murray. I'm also rooting for them to get out of the 1st round. But I do think it is fair to view Samsonov's poor two games against us as more than nothing.

 

[Xerloris]

Fix the blueline first. If Binny still looks bad, he’s the problem. Our pairings are severely lacking and fixing just that or even shoring it up will greatly improve the team.

Not just the blueline but the forwards commitment to defense as well. Way to much coasting this year in the defensive end.

 

[Brian39]

It wasn't Binner's best game last night, but he wasn't bad either.

Goal #1: screened deflection back against the grain. He made the correct positional play as the shot was coming in and the goal required a cross-body tip to change the puck's trajectory from far side high to short side low (but still over the pad). Not remotely Binner's fault.

Goal #2: pass goes from low to high out of the corner to the slot above the circles. The Leafs D rips a one-timer far side through a single layer 1 player screen above the hash marks. Not a horrible goal, but very much stoppable. I hesitate to call it a bad goal, but I don't like it. His push toward the shooter could have been better for sure.

Goal #3: Zero chance on this one. Shot from the point going far side to the blocker. There is a Leafs player on the back door blocker side and Binner 100% has to commit toward his blocker slide. He does, but Mikkola blocks the shot and directs the puck directly to the glove-side back door. There is also a Leafs player on this back door and he slams it home without dusting it off at all.

Goal #4: Cross-ice pass from the blocker-side point to the glove side faceoff dot. The league's best shooter grabs the puck a foot behind his skates and releases the shot from that position while it is on edge. He wires home an absolute laser perfectly placed into the top corner short-side. Binner did a good job getting over and square to Matthews for the release but didn't (and couldn't) get out past the top of his paint to challenge. You can nitpick about it being short side, but this is going in almost every time. Look at the start of this release:

It is in the exact-top-corner a split second later. It is absolutely insane that he got that thing to the top corner with the velocity he did. There is absolutely no way to read that off the blade and the shot had too much behind it to react. This was a ridiculous shot from a ridiculous shooter and it followed a fully cross ice pass.

Goal #5: Pass from the bottom of the blocker-side circle to an untouched Leafs player below the hash marks in the center of the ice (slightly off center toward the blocker-side). Binner overcommits to the center of his goal to protect the far/glove side post and is pushing back toward his blocker side as the shot is quickly released. He can't close the hole between his blocker/body in time and gets beaten on a hard shot from 4 feet on top of his crease. Another stoppable goal. Again, I have a hard time calling this a bad goal given the puck movement leading up to it.

No one should have any problem with goals 1, 3, or 4. Goals 1 and 3 fall into the 'nothing he could do' bucket and goal number 4 goes in almost every time.

The only debatable ones are goals 2 and 5 and neither of them are terrible goals. Both of them are preceded by sustained puck movement and pressure from the opposition and both of them are very well placed shots. One is a one-timer and the other is a touch-then-shoot from very close. I'd like to see a more precise lateral push off the post on both of them. I have zero problem if one of these is the worst thing that happens to a goalie all night. I don't want to see both go in.

All in all, I'd say Binner was fine last night. Not good. Not bad. But fine with a slight lean toward bad if I had to pick one or the other. Binner has had nights to complain about this year and he's probably had too many of them. I don't consider last night to be one of them.

 

[bleedblue1223]

And in the end, he made an amazing save on Sandin in the shootout to lead to the win. Sure, a save in a shootout shouldn't absolve a goalie from mistakes made in the actual game, but he came up big when it mattered most.

 

[Brian39]

And in the end, he made an amazing save on Sandin in the shootout to lead to the win. Sure, a save in a shootout shouldn't absolve a goalie from mistakes made in the actual game, but he came up big when it mattered most.

He did, but that is the only save of that caliber that I can think of. The glove save off the rush in the 3rd was important, but it was a save he should be expected to make. I don't view the Sandin save in the shootout as so impressive that it negates the rest. An NHL goalie should make a save or two of that quality every night. He deserves credit for battling through 65 minutes and then coming up with a big stop there. But that one play isn't enough for me to ignore the lateral mistakes made on a couple goals.

 

[bleedblue1223]

He did, but that is the only save of that caliber that I can think of. The glove save off the rush in the 3rd was important, but it was a save he should be expected to make. I don't view the Sandin save in the shootout as so impressive that it negates the rest. An NHL goalie should make a save or two of that quality every night. He deserves credit for battling through 65 minutes and then coming up with a big stop there. But that one play isn't enough for me to ignore the lateral mistakes made on a couple goals.

Yeah, I'm fine with people saying I'm more on the optimistic side of that looking for positives. I still think he's in general too mentally fragile to be a goalie you want to truly rely on. We know he's capable of elite play, but there is something in his head that prevents him from playing that way consistently. That's the frustrating part, of all the goalies we've had recently, he clearly has that extra gear in him that guys like Allen, Elliott, Halak, etc. never had, but that inconsistency is frustrating.

 

[Brian39]

Yeah, I'm fine with people saying I'm more on the optimistic side of that looking for positives. I still think he's in general too mentally fragile to be a goalie you want to truly rely on. We know he's capable of elite play, but there is something in his head that prevents him from playing that way consistently. That's the frustrating part, of all the goalies we've had recently, he clearly has that extra gear in him that guys like Allen, Elliott, Halak, etc. never had, but that inconsistency is frustrating.

I'd love to see if putting him on a 50-55 start pace from start-to-finish instead of riding him like an elite workhorse would impact the consistency. I know I'm a broken record on this topic, but he's once again leading the NHL in starts with 29 (tied with Shesterkin and Hellebuyck). Oettinger and Saros are 1 start back with 28 and everyone else in the league is 2+ starts back.

He's at a 62 start pace and that will remain the case by the midpoint of the season unless we unexpectedly start Greiss on Thursday.

Starting 60+ games is a huge mental grind. We're not doing him any favors by treating him like a workhorse.

 

[bleedblue1223]

I'd love to see if putting him on a 50-55 start pace from start-to-finish instead of riding him like an elite workhorse would impact the consistency. I know I'm a broken record on this topic, but he's once again leading the NHL in starts with 29 (tied with Shesterkin and Hellebuyck). Oettinger and Saros are 1 start back with 28 and everyone else in the league is 2+ starts back.

He's at a 62 start pace and that will remain the case by the midpoint of the season unless we unexpectedly start Greiss on Thursday.

Starting 60+ games is a huge mental grind. We're not doing him any favors by treating him like a workhorse.

Yeah, one of the issues I have with Berube is the desire to lean heavily on certain guys when things aren't going the right way. I think O'Reilly and Parayko and Binnington would be the first to tell you that they haven't been good enough this season, but the coaches are part of the issue for how they are used/deployed.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Can't wait till next year when it should be a 46-36 split between Binner and Hofer.

 

[bleedblue1223]

Can't wait till next year when it should be a 46-36 split between Binner and Hofer.

Hofer might just win the job.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

Hofer might just win the job.

Wouldn't surprise me. Especially if he keeps up his stats this year, next year in the NHL.

 

[Linkens Mastery]

When Parayko uses just 1% of his power.

 

[Xerloris]

When Binny starts to play poorly IMO he needs a bit of a rest. We really do run him into the ground.

 

[bleedblue1223]

When Binny starts to play poorly IMO he needs a bit of a rest. We really do run him into the ground.

And it can sort of be a catch-22, as we tend to run him into the ground when things aren't going well because we want our top guys to dig us out instead of putting Greiss out there that we don't have as much faith in weather the storm when it's bad.

 

[Brian39]

Hofer might just win the job.

Getting him locked in at league minimum for 2 years is nice. Assuming he wins the backup job next year, we know that we are spending $6.775M on the goalies for 2 years. If Hofer wins the job then so be it. No cap implications until 2025/26 and by then Binner just has 2 years left on his deal and the cap should be above $90M. If cap is an issue and Hofer is the clear starter, a buyout of Binner in the summer of 2025 isn't too tough to swallow.

I've hated the Binnington contract since the summer of 2019. The domino effect of those negotiations led to us losing Husso, but it looks like they shouldn't lead to us losing Hofer. The organization trusts Binner and he'll be given every chance to ward of Hofer coming for his job. But there is no reason it won't be a merit-based competition.

 

[TruBlu]

Goalies who are paid 6 million dollars really shouldn't be getting dual goalie roles. That's why they are handed that much money. Allen's worst year was when he was unequivocally taking over as the starter and he was ridden like a horse. Much of the year he was the goalie with most games played and it no doubt affects numbers. That being said, Allen got no sympathy from this board and neither should Binny. Bad play is bad play.

 

[Xerloris]

Goalies who are paid 6 million dollars really shouldn't be getting dual goalie roles. That's why they are handed that much money. Allen's worst year was when he was unequivocally taking over as the starter and he was ridden like a horse. Much of the year he was the goalie with most games played and it no doubt affects numbers. That being said, Allen got no sympathy from this board and neither should Binny. Bad play is bad play.

Allen played like shit when our defense was rockstar caliber.

 

[Brian39]

Goalies who are paid 6 million dollars really shouldn't be getting dual goalie roles. That's why they are handed that much money. Allen's worst year was when he was unequivocally taking over as the starter and he was ridden like a horse. Much of the year he was the goalie with most games played and it no doubt affects numbers. That being said, Allen got no sympathy from this board and neither should Binny. Bad play is bad play.

That just isn't the reality of the goaltender position in today's NHL.

A 50-55 start workload is not a "dual goalie role" in the NHL. Only 16 goalies hit the 50 start threshold last season and just 10 of them reached 55 starts. Exactly 5 goalies played 60 games last year and everyone else was below 58 starts. The Vezina winner had 52 starts last year and Fleury's 36 starts as the Vezina winner in the shortened season was a 52 start pace. The modern benchmark for a starter is 50-55 starts.

I don't like the Binnington contract and he absolutely hasn't played up to his contract. More broadly, I don't like the idea of paying basically any goalie big, long term money. However, Binnington didn't get 'elite workhorse' money. There were 10 goalies making $6M when he signed his extension, 9 guys making $6M when it went into effect and there are 8 guys making $6M this season. There have been 3 goalies making $8.5M+ in each of those seasons and 1 or 2 goalies making $7M.

Binner got 'above average starter' money. A 50-55 start workload should absolutely be on the table for a $6M goalie. $6M hasn't bought UFA years of a top 5 NHL goalie for some time in the NHL now. I don't think we should have given Binner the contract we gave him and I've been pretty vocal about it. But what we gave him wasn't on par with the $8.5M+ given to elite goalies that teams expected 60+ games of consistent play from year in and year out (Vasilevski, Price, Lundqvist, and the misguided investment in Bob by the Panthers).