Taking stock of where we are

[Xspyrit]

Personally, I feel pessimistic about our ability to tread water with a depleted roster and myopic 5v5 offense (even with everyone healthy). And I absolutely hate feeling that being in the position we're in: we're in the mix, right where we want to be. But the truth is, we are leaving points on the table all over the place, key players aren't back to healthy (even after a 2 week break) and the teams chasing us are not going to help us out.

But... but... I was told that there was nothing to worry about?

Without Brady this team just doesn't have the compete level it takes in the NHL, last night they played scared against the Habs. Who on the Sens scares anyone without Brady?

This team has a VAST losing record WITH Brady too... This is what I have talked about for years : a sports franchise just CANNOT afford to have clowns running their organization for years. It's a miracle if Staios is capable of turning it into something. His hands are pretty tied though with a non existent prospect pool and a 1st round pick to forfeit.

 

[Cosmix]

It’s looking like it could be a tough decision for which pick to surrender. If the pick is 13-18 range I don’t know what to do.

I think at least 3 factors need to be considered:
1. Time value of picks - a pick in Summer 2025 has more "net present value" than a pick in Summer 2026.
2. Potential relative value of picks in 2025 versus 2026 - If the players in the 2025 draft are viewed as NOT being as good as 2026, then 2026 picks are worth more.
3. Our projected pick number in 2025 versus 2026 - if there is a significant difference, there might be greater value in picking 2025 versus 2026.

But... but... I was told that there was nothing to worry about?



This team has a VAST losing record WITH Brady too... This is what I have talked about for years : a sports franchise just CANNOT afford to have clowns running their organization for years. It's a miracle if Staios is capable of turning it into something. His hands are pretty tied though with a non existent prospect pool and a 1st round pick to forfeit.

To a certain extent, he has made his own bed signing Perron and Amadio and being "patient".

 

[Relapsing]

Without Brady this team just doesn't have the compete level it takes in the NHL, last night they played scared against the Habs. Who on the Sens scares anyone without Brady?

Even with Brady, we don't always have the compete level it takes.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Without Brady this team just doesn't have the compete level it takes in the NHL, last night they played scared against the Habs. Who on the Sens scares anyone without Brady?

It's also not fair to Brady that he's the one relied on to light a fire under 22 asses every night. They're all pros and making millions, yet a lot of these guys are mentally soft and disappear for long stretches of time. Pretty much all of these guys (save 1 or 2) have enough pro games under their belt now that they should be able to compete every night.

A chunk of our core is closer to 30 than 20 at this point.

 

[Relapsing]

It's also not fair to Brady that he's the one relied on to light a fire under 22 asses every night. They're all pros and making millions, yet a lot of these guys are mentally soft and disappear for long stretches of time. Pretty much all of these guys (save 1 or 2) have enough pro games under their belt now that they should be able to compete every night.

A chunk of our core is closer to 30 than 20 at this point.

This is as good an opportunity as ever to point out how Jimmy was doing everything he could last night.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

This is as good an opportunity as ever to point out how Jimmy was doing everything he could last night.

He definitely was. But there are too many guys on the team that sleepwalk though too many games.

 

[Byron Bitz]

I think at least 3 factors need to be considered:
1. Time value of picks - a pick in Summer 2025 has more "net present value" than a pick in Summer 2026.
2. Potential relative value of picks in 2025 versus 2026 - If the players in the 2025 draft are viewed as NOT being as good as 2026, then 2026 picks are worth more.
3. Our projected pick number in 2025 versus 2026 - if there is a significant difference, there might be greater value in picking 2025 versus 2026.


To a certain extent, he has made his own bed signing Perron and Amadio and being "patient".

You also have to factor in the risk that comes with going into next season with an unprotected pick. That’s a scary situation especially if they run into injury trouble.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

 

[Byron Bitz]

I think at least 3 factors need to be considered:
1. Time value of picks - a pick in Summer 2025 has more "net present value" than a pick in Summer 2026.
2. Potential relative value of picks in 2025 versus 2026 - If the players in the 2025 draft are viewed as NOT being as good as 2026, then 2026 picks are worth more.
3. Our projected pick number in 2025 versus 2026 - if there is a significant difference, there might be greater value in picking 2025 versus 2026.


To a certain extent, he has made his own bed signing Perron and Amadio and being "patient".

Would they be allowed to acquire a late 1st and surrender that one instead?

 

[DrEasy]

Would they be allowed to acquire a late 1st and surrender that one instead?

I don't think so, since I don't believe they were allowed to surrender the late Boston pick they had last year.

 

[Blotto71]

So, keep in mind, I'm not an NHL executive just a ruthless armchair GM:

1. Pathetic performance vs Montreal,
2. Chabot + Amadio to New Jersey for Meier + L. Hughes ($$'s are close, +/- as needed to make it work),
3. Perron, approach him with the ultimatum that he can accept a deal to where-ever or have his contract terminated and sign where he likes,
4. Norris, deal him for the best offer at the deadline,
5. Giroux, bring him back next year if he wants (>$4M, no more than a 1 yr deal) but he picks his destination to win a cup and packs his bags.

Enough of accepting and being patient with all of the mistakes made over the past how many years. Enough with showing "loyalty" to millionaires. Run it like a business.

Perron isn't working out - AT ALL! Amadio and Chabot have value - Meier is a winger for Timmy and Hughes has potential. And the Sens just need to get out from under Norris's contract. Enter the off season:

Brady - Timmy - Timmo
??? - Pinto - Batherson
??? - Greig - ???
??? - Ostapchuk - MacEwan (he has a 1 way next year)

Sanderson - Zub
Hughes - Jenson
Klevin - JBD/Matinpalo

Resign Giroux for a 3rd line role.
Go after Marner/Rantanen/Ellers for a top 6 W spot
Look at someone like Tanner Jeannot for a 3rd line W spot.
Resign Gregor and/or Cousins for 3rd/4th line roles.

Or stay the course, be patient, be disappointed. Again.

 

[Hale The Villain]

I'm someone who thinks the Sens deserved to be penalized for the Dadonov debacle, but I also think losing a 2nd would have been a more reasonable penalty.

Not letting the Sens give up the 25th pick after misleading Andlauer during the sale process, costing him millions in lost franchise value, is absolute horseshit.

 

[Xspyrit]

To a certain extent, he has made his own bed signing Perron and Amadio and being "patient".

The problem for Staios is that he basically has ZERO margin of error. Any GM would normally be able to afford a few mistakes or unproductive moves but we've been in DEFICIT for so long in terms of asset management that there's no margin left. And as we can witness, this team is close and far at the same time so he has a nearly impossible mandate...

IMO, what I would do IF we don't make the playoffs : major retool. And frankly, I don't think we really have a choice.

- Forfeit the 1st round pick this season, get it over with no choice. Don't take the risk for 2026

- Keep Stutzle, Pinto, Greig, Ostapchuk, Reinhardt, Sanderson, Kleven, Matinpalo, JBD and Merilainen

- Trade anyone over 25 y/o who has value. Try to sign Giroux as UFA for less

- Target young players and prospects, NOT picks unless it's Top-15. Maybe target a few specific vets, but more with UFA.

- Target SPEED and SKILL. Players who play with poise and pace, I don't care if they're tough and get PIMs.

But to do all that, do we really have the staff necessary? Pro and amateur scouting departments seem to be outdated AF

Hopefully, we make the playoffs and Staios pull a few rabbits out of his hat for the future. But it's wishful until it materializes

2. Chabot + Amadio to New Jersey for Meier + L. Hughes ($$'s are close, +/- as needed to make it work),

I love Chabot but this wouldn't work, not close. Devils fans would riot after you if you proposed that on the main boards. And frankly, Luke Hughes has a lot of value, I'd say equivalent as Jake Sanderson. He is a year younger and has already a 47 pts season under his belt and is an elite skater.

Amadio has zero value, I wonder if someone would pick him up on waivers for free. Meier and Chabot have similar value, I'd say Chabot has a bit more value but the difference isn't Luke Hughes, not even 10%

 

[Big Muddy]

Without Brady this team just doesn't have the compete level it takes in the NHL, last night they played scared against the Habs. Who on the Sens scares anyone without Brady?

I’d say they need to have all three of Tkachuk, Norris & Pinto to have success. Brady in the lineup would help, but don’t think that’s enough. A team needs to score goals as well. Having Grieg & Ostapchuk as your middle of the lineup centers is too steep of a drop versus having Stutzle, Norris & Pinto as the top 3 centers. It turns from a relative strength to a relative weakness. Our lineup last night doesn’t inspire much confidence.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

You also have to factor in the risk that comes with going into next season with an unprotected pick. That’s a scary situation especially if they run into injury trouble.

Also worth noting that 2026 is considered both deeper and better at the top than 2025. Even though '26 is a ways down the road, that pick, in theory, should hold significant value compared to 2025 (unless we totally crap out and '25 turns into another top 7 pick).

 

[Blotto71]

Amadio has zero value, I wonder if someone would pick him up on waivers for free. Meier and Chabot have similar value, I'd say Chabot has a bit more value but the difference isn't Luke Hughes, not even 10%

Yes, you're correct regarding Hughes. Would adding Batherson and/or Greig instead of Amadio make a difference, do you think?

 

[Xspyrit]

Yes, you're correct regarding Hughes. Would adding Batherson and/or Greig instead of Amadio make a difference, do you think?

It would be much closer, but for several reasons, I don’t think New Jersey would be interested.

First, Luke plays with his brother Jack and I think he is simply untouchable the way Sanderson is for us

 

[Cosmix]

Would they be allowed to acquire a late 1st and surrender that one instead?

No. Bettman already addressed this Q, I think.

Allowing a team to trade for a late first round pick to pay for the loss of a pick demanded by the league would set a precedent for all teams to do that.

He definitely was. But there are too many guys on the team that sleepwalk though too many games.

They lack "royal jelly". We need to make some trades to create a team that is "tough to play against". JT Miller seems like a guy who would be the type we need.

 

[Cosmix]

The problem for Staios is that he basically has ZERO margin of error. Any GM would normally be able to afford a few mistakes or unproductive moves but we've been in DEFICIT for so long in terms of asset management that there's no margin left. And as we can witness, this team is close and far at the same time so he has a nearly impossible mandate...

IMO, what I would do IF we don't make the playoffs : major retool. And frankly, I don't think we really have a choice.

- Forfeit the 1st round pick this season, get it over with no choice. Don't take the risk for 2026

- Keep Stutzle, Pinto, Greig, Ostapchuk, Reinhardt, Sanderson, Kleven, Matinpalo, JBD and Merilainen

- Trade anyone over 25 y/o who has value. Try to sign Giroux as UFA for less

- Target young players and prospects, NOT picks unless it's Top-15. Maybe target a few specific vets, but more with UFA.

- Target SPEED and SKILL. Players who play with poise and pace, I don't care if they're tough and get PIMs.

But to do all that, do we really have the staff necessary? Pro and amateur scouting departments seem to be outdated AF

Hopefully, we make the playoffs and Staios pull a few rabbits out of his hat for the future. But it's wishful until it materializes



I love Chabot but this wouldn't work, not close. Devils fans would riot after you if you proposed that on the main boards. And frankly, Luke Hughes has a lot of value, I'd say equivalent as Jake Sanderson. He is a year younger and has already a 47 pts season under his belt and is an elite skater.

Amadio has zero value, I wonder if someone would pick him up on waivers for free. Meier and Chabot have similar value, I'd say Chabot has a bit more value but the difference isn't Luke Hughes, not even 10%

I would not make the major changes you are proposing. I agree with targeting "speed" and "skill", but I also want some additional physicality and toughness added to the roster.

You said"- Keep Stutzle, Pinto, Greig, Ostapchuk, Reinhardt, Sanderson, Kleven, Matinpalo, JBD, Merilainen" and Giroux.

That means trade or dump "Ullmark, Forsberg, Tkatchuk, Norris, Batherson, Perron, Amadio, Gregor, Cousins, MacEwen, Gaudette, Chabot, Zub, Jensen & Hamonic".

I would keep the following 15 players: Tkatchuk, Stutzle, Pinto, Greig, Norris, Batherson, Chabot, Sanderson, Kleven, Jensen, Zub, Matinpalo, Ullmark, Merillainen and Giroux at $3-$3.5M. We would only need 5 more players for a full NHL roster.

That means trade or dump or send to AHL: Forsberg, Sogaard, Reinhardt, Perron, Amadio, MacEwen, Hamonic, JBD, Gaudette, Hamonic, Cousins, Gregor.

I might sign Cousins and Gregor at $1M or less as 4th liners. I would want a tough policeman type player to replace MaEwen; someone like Olivier.

Most importantly I would want to add a top 6 player, preferably a center with playmaking and high puck control & management skills (move Norris to wing) or a highly skilled right-wing to play with Stutzle.

The strategy is to try to make the playoffs and challenge for the SC over the next 3 seasons. If that fails, blow it up after season 3.

 

[BigRig4]

No. Bettman already addressed this Q, I think.

Allowing a team to trade for a late first round pick to pay for the loss of a pick demanded by the league would set a precedent for all teams to do that.

Someone asked Staios before the draft last year if he explored using the Boston 1st rounder to satisfy the penalty. He said he looked into it, but was told it had to be one of their own picks.

 

[LuckyPierre]

Love the thought exercise. This team, if fully healthy and playing to potential, could do some damage in the playoffs. They are excellent at creating power play opportunities, and have a goalie that can tilt the ice the other way at his best. I mean that sincerely - if the stars align, Ottawa can advance through a few rounds in the spring.

The issue is that there is a low probability that this team will be operating both at full health and also at top performance come playoff time. If key contributors are hurt, depth will be this team's achilles heel. Other than the development of Matinpalo on defence as a reliable stay at home bottom pairing player, and the emergence of Levi in goal, this team cannot afford any injuries and call ups elsewhere - the reinforcements are simply not replacement level. We've seen how lousy the depth is over the past few games.

With Pierre turning the piggy bank upside down to waste futures in his final years, the non-existent organizational depth will very likely prevent this roster from elevating to true cup contender status during the Brady window. The assets are simply not there to enable this team to add and go all in. And to be blunt, the Ottawa braintrust cannot afford to have him force his way out on his terms during his NMC years, or even worse, walk at the conclusion of his contract, if there's a reasonable scenario involving retooling with a Lindros-lite return by trading him proactively.

My stance is that this summer, Brady ought to be moved in a 31 team auction for an all-time haul in advance of his NMC kicking in. That trade return would ideally restore the immediate competitive balance of the roster in the absence of Brady, while addressing depth issues as well. The other advantage is that if Brady is dealt, other pieces of the core can reasonably be moved too (Norris/Chabot etc) if the return was worthwhile, without putting excess stress on the room. If Brady can be moved, others can too. Win the trades, bring in new blood, and invest in a deep, talented roster.

In the meantime, here's hoping that the roster returns to full health, and are inspired to push through deep into the playoffs. Would love to see playoff Brady with our crest wreaking havoc.

 

[coladin]

Personally, 2 points in, two points out at this stage makes absolutely no difference to me. It is where we are in April, and as long as we are close, and don't have many teams to jump, I remain confident. I just hate the hyperactive standings on a daily basis evaluation. Let's just relax a little bit. Ultimately, this team, we have seen for a long two plus month stretch play the right way, and can close games. We just need some more skill in the lineup right now

 

[bicboi64]

Love the thought exercise. This team, if fully healthy and playing to potential, could do some damage in the playoffs. They are excellent at creating power play opportunities, and have a goalie that can tilt the ice the other way at his best. I mean that sincerely - if the stars align, Ottawa can advance through a few rounds in the spring.

The issue is that there is a low probability that this team will be operating both at full health and also at top performance come playoff time. If key contributors are hurt, depth will be this team's achilles heel. Other than the development of Matinpalo on defence as a reliable stay at home bottom pairing player, and the emergence of Levi in goal, this team cannot afford any injuries and call ups elsewhere - the reinforcements are simply not replacement level. We've seen how lousy the depth is over the past few games.

With Pierre turning the piggy bank upside down to waste futures in his final years, the non-existent organizational depth will very likely prevent this roster from elevating to true cup contender status during the Brady window. The assets are simply not there to enable this team to add and go all in. And to be blunt, the Ottawa braintrust cannot afford to have him force his way out on his terms during his NMC years, or even worse, walk at the conclusion of his contract, if there's a reasonable scenario involving retooling with a Lindros-lite return by trading him proactively.

My stance is that this summer, Brady ought to be moved in a 31 team auction for an all-time haul in advance of his NMC kicking in. That trade return would ideally restore the immediate competitive balance of the roster in the absence of Brady, while addressing depth issues as well. The other advantage is that if Brady is dealt, other pieces of the core can reasonably be moved too (Norris/Chabot etc) if the return was worthwhile, without putting excess stress on the room. If Brady can be moved, others can too. Win the trades, bring in new blood, and invest in a deep, talented roster.

In the meantime, here's hoping that the roster returns to full health, and are inspired to push through deep into the playoffs. Would love to see playoff Brady with our crest wreaking havoc.

Agreed with everything you said. I hope our current guys are back to full health asap and we get a chance to see what happens in the playoffs with the current guys.

Having said that, we don't have the assets or draft capital to get better depth and will have to rely on acquiring declining FAs like Perron or guys that just aren't good enough to be difference-makers (Amadio). Add to the fact that two of our top 6 forwards are very injury prone, one of our building blocks plays an unsustainable type of game, and the injury troubles to our recently acquired star goalie, this roster is a 2nd round playoff team at best.

After this season ends but before FA, I'm fine to move Tkachuk, Chabot, and Norris . Each of those guys has value and we can do a quick retool that gives us loads of drafts picks/prospects and some younger roster guys that give us a roster that doesn't rely on the stars aligning to have a deep playoff run.

 

[Tuna99]

Call me old but the Sens having a Tragically Hip night vs Winnipeg gets me going. This is a very good omen

“bring on a brand new renaissance, because I think I’m ready” are the lyrics this fanbase should live by this year. In Gord we trust.