tinyzombies
Registered User
Also, kudos to IE for all the amazing research and civil debate. Tons of fun.
Sunnyvale Shithawks (1) vs Montreal Victorias (3) - 2026 ATD Foster Hewitt Division Final
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Likewise! This was the best back and forth I've had in years. Covid wrecked society on a more profound level than just a disease/deaths, but I have to say say, post 2020 the debates that are being had are being had in a very civil manner and it's extremely refreshing.
Series Overview
Coaching: Edge Sunnyvale
I think this is a pretty clear cut advantage simply on an all time scale, but furthermore, Arbour used an evolved version of Gorman's fore-checking systems and reached greater heights with a roster that Sunnyvale modeled itself after.
Lalonde = Trottier
Malone = Bossy
Harvey = slightly better version of Potvin
Bergeron = much better version of Brent Sutter
Gainey = much better version of Bourne
Mackell = Goring
Bourne and Morrow = real life depth.
Depth scoring with Pitre, Sittler, Hay, Morris, Tkachuk and Mullen all registering between 71 and 82 on the VsX scale. Covers all 4 lines.
Arbour's dynasty Islanders featured a pretty big blueline and the Shithawks are pretty darn big as I showed earlier in the thread. Al gets to deploy a big 3 that would make even the 70's Habs version blush.
Forwards: Slight Edge Sunnyvale
As I highlighted in the positional overview on page 1, I think Sunnyvale has a superior 1st and 3rd line vs Montreal taking the 2nd and 4th. That = a slight advantage over more minutes of the hockey game. The Shithawks top line is a proven commodity that manages to overtake a line that started with Mike Bossy. Not just in goalscoring, but all around.
I don't like the lack of true playmakers for Montreal among their F's. I think that hurts them in transition, which will be hard enough given Sunnyvale can forecheck with Lalonde, Sittler, Morris, Gainey, Tkachuk, Bourne, Mackell specifically and back them up with Harvey, Cleghorn, Stevens.
Defensemen: Edge Sunnyvale
As good as Potvin is, he's outclassed slightly by Harvey in this matchup. Harvey controlled the game better and was a more airtight defender. Stevens to McCrimmon is a much wider gap. Even the the best player on either 2nd pairing is Sunnyvale's Cleghorn. You have a Hart winner and 4 AS nods collectively on the 3rd pairing for the Shithawks.
Of much importance, transition, controlling the temp of the game from the blueline, in any zone favors Sunnyvale because of Harvey, Cleghorn, Pratt and Harmon. Not having defensemen who can retrieve and make smart decisions with the puck will get you killed by a team like Montreal. Leading with Harvey, that is not an issue for Sunnyvale. A clear focus was put on that, for this very moment.
IMHO, the Shithawks have a comfortable advantage on the 1st and 3rd pairs while only trailing slightly on the 2nd due to their being a bigger gap from Moose Johnson to McDonagh than Cleghorn to Clapper.
Goalies: Slight Edge Montreal
Very close but a slight edge to the Victorias. Vezina was highlighted well by jiggly (great in the playoffs, best G of the era) in the G project and I think passes Brimsek to join Tretiak and Dryden on that tier just behind the 06 studs. For now, I think there are still more people who favor Dryden slightly and I want to honor that. I will say, if the backups are forced into action, Holmes, a playoff ringer in the mold of Broda should flip the script vs Vachon.
One key nuance that I mentioned briefly in the G overview, is that Vezina was a very strong puck handler and passer. Ahead of his time in that regard and adds yet another strong counter to the idea that Montreal can have success dumping the puck and consistently win retrieval battles.
Special Teams: Slight Edge Sunnyvale
I agree, and would never suggest otherwise, that Sunnyvale will be in the box a few more times over the course of 4+ games.
However, as I showed, IMHO, quite clearly, Sunnyvale's top PP unit will get it's share of chances and faces a much less daunting task vs the Montreal top PK unit. Tonelli and McCrimmon are just not 1st unit ATD level players and going against Lalonde, Malone, Sittler, Harvey, Cleghorn is a recipe for goals against Montreal.
Conversely, the Shithawks top PK unit of Gainey, Bergeron, Harvey, Stevens might be the greatest ATD collective ever assembled and represent a significant hurdle for any PP. Montreal has a great F (Bossy) and D (Potvin) on their top unit but outside of that feels quite underwhelming.
Final Prediction: Sunnyvale wins 4-2
Coaching: Edge Sunnyvale
I think this is a pretty clear cut advantage simply on an all time scale, but furthermore, Arbour used an evolved version of Gorman's fore-checking systems and reached greater heights with a roster that Sunnyvale modeled itself after.
Lalonde = Trottier
Malone = Bossy
Harvey = slightly better version of Potvin
Bergeron = much better version of Brent Sutter
Gainey = much better version of Bourne
Mackell = Goring
Bourne and Morrow = real life depth.
Depth scoring with Pitre, Sittler, Hay, Morris, Tkachuk and Mullen all registering between 71 and 82 on the VsX scale. Covers all 4 lines.
Arbour's dynasty Islanders featured a pretty big blueline and the Shithawks are pretty darn big as I showed earlier in the thread. Al gets to deploy a big 3 that would make even the 70's Habs version blush.
Forwards: Slight Edge Sunnyvale
As I highlighted in the positional overview on page 1, I think Sunnyvale has a superior 1st and 3rd line vs Montreal taking the 2nd and 4th. That = a slight advantage over more minutes of the hockey game. The Shithawks top line is a proven commodity that manages to overtake a line that started with Mike Bossy. Not just in goalscoring, but all around.
I don't like the lack of true playmakers for Montreal among their F's. I think that hurts them in transition, which will be hard enough given Sunnyvale can forecheck with Lalonde, Sittler, Morris, Gainey, Tkachuk, Bourne, Mackell specifically and back them up with Harvey, Cleghorn, Stevens.
Defensemen: Edge Sunnyvale
As good as Potvin is, he's outclassed slightly by Harvey in this matchup. Harvey controlled the game better and was a more airtight defender. Stevens to McCrimmon is a much wider gap. Even the the best player on either 2nd pairing is Sunnyvale's Cleghorn. You have a Hart winner and 4 AS nods collectively on the 3rd pairing for the Shithawks.
Of much importance, transition, controlling the temp of the game from the blueline, in any zone favors Sunnyvale because of Harvey, Cleghorn, Pratt and Harmon. Not having defensemen who can retrieve and make smart decisions with the puck will get you killed by a team like Montreal. Leading with Harvey, that is not an issue for Sunnyvale. A clear focus was put on that, for this very moment.
IMHO, the Shithawks have a comfortable advantage on the 1st and 3rd pairs while only trailing slightly on the 2nd due to their being a bigger gap from Moose Johnson to McDonagh than Cleghorn to Clapper.
Goalies: Slight Edge Montreal
Very close but a slight edge to the Victorias. Vezina was highlighted well by jiggly (great in the playoffs, best G of the era) in the G project and I think passes Brimsek to join Tretiak and Dryden on that tier just behind the 06 studs. For now, I think there are still more people who favor Dryden slightly and I want to honor that. I will say, if the backups are forced into action, Holmes, a playoff ringer in the mold of Broda should flip the script vs Vachon.
One key nuance that I mentioned briefly in the G overview, is that Vezina was a very strong puck handler and passer. Ahead of his time in that regard and adds yet another strong counter to the idea that Montreal can have success dumping the puck and consistently win retrieval battles.
Special Teams: Slight Edge Sunnyvale
I agree, and would never suggest otherwise, that Sunnyvale will be in the box a few more times over the course of 4+ games.
However, as I showed, IMHO, quite clearly, Sunnyvale's top PP unit will get it's share of chances and faces a much less daunting task vs the Montreal top PK unit. Tonelli and McCrimmon are just not 1st unit ATD level players and going against Lalonde, Malone, Sittler, Harvey, Cleghorn is a recipe for goals against Montreal.
Conversely, the Shithawks top PK unit of Gainey, Bergeron, Harvey, Stevens might be the greatest ATD collective ever assembled and represent a significant hurdle for any PP. Montreal has a great F (Bossy) and D (Potvin) on their top unit but outside of that feels quite underwhelming.
Final Prediction: Sunnyvale wins 4-2
tinyzombies
Registered User
How I am weighing this series
I am not going to make a prediction because that’s impossible to do for a seven game overtime win with Ken Dryden getting the Connie Smythe. But that is what I am aiming for. I would never make that a prediction, though I would leave it up to you, dear voter. Because when you get up in the morning and shave that handsome face of yours you will have to turn in your ATD vote and someone will have to win this series.
My team is built big for playoff hockey, but it doesn’t take the penalty minutes that Sunnyvale does, and at the end of the road sits Ken Dryden the hero of the 1971 Stanley Cup playoffs. He is 6‘6“ adjusted in height.
Sunnyvale says that size doesn’t matter. But look at my top two units they are built for a playoff hockey. Potvin, Clapper, Moose Johnson, Barkov, Kopitar, Shanahan, Glen Anderson and Bossy lurking. With Big Dryden. Those two units form layers that I don’t believe his style of players will be able to fight through, especially with their short fuses.
Stage 1: Who has the historical player value?
This is where Sunnyvale’s case is strongest. If we are looking at pure historical name value, Sunnyvale has Harvey, Stevens, Cleghorn, Lalonde, Malone, Bergeron, Gainey, Arbour and Vezina. That is a real foundation.
Montreal is not exactly empty on historical value either: Potvin, Bossy, Dryden, Clapper, Moose Johnson, Scotty Davidson and Coach Gorman.
But I have added style players that have enough of a peak to make a huge difference and add size and playoff pedigree: Barkov, Kopitar, Sundin, Shanahan, Rantanen, Point, Glen Anderson AND Tonelli, McCrimmon, McAvoy, Neilson, Cashman.
I am not denying the starting point.
Stage 2: How much of that value actually survives once minutes, matchup, style, discipline, workload, and goalie are applied?
Everything is infected by his penalty minutes, including his edge in special teams, which becomes a wash, his even strength minutes for his top unit, which are reduced, and further exacerbated by Harvey and Stevens having to spend a lot of time on the penalty kill, lowering their ES minutes. Not only that, but when they are on the ice, they have to get through two multiple selke and cup winning monster centers. And a dynasty true #1 dman in Potvin.
My team is built to match up in a seven game series with two-way play, size, limited penalty minutes, defensive layers, and 49 total Stanley cups. Sunnyvale has 48 but I have 10 more in my top six and top four defenseman.
PIMs. An avg of over 9 PIMs per game in the playoffs just between Pitre and Lalonde, without counting Stevens who is at 1.9.... An AVERAGE OF 11 PIMs. Harvey was 1.1... Malone 6 PIMs in 9 NHL playoff games. Not bad, but it gets added to the stack.
Over 13 PIMs per playoff game just for your first unit.
More PIMs thrown in for good measure:
The same edge that gives Sunnyvale intimidation, pressure, and violence also gives Montreal more power-play opportunities.
This is where I think the series gets much tighter.
Historical value does not automatically translate cleanly into seven-game playoff value. It has to survive the matchup.
Sunnyvale’s top line still has to get through Barkov, Potvin, Clapper/McCrimmon support, size, structure, and Dryden.
Sunnyvale’s second line still has to get clean secondary offense from Sittler (-21 in the playoffs with almost 2 minutes in penalties on average in the playoffs ) while carrying his playoff/PIM pressure, and from Cleghorn while carrying Cleghorn’s penalty/workload pressure.
Sunnyvale’s third line is excellent, but if it is being used to suppress Sundin/Rantanen, then it is also accepting a lower offensive role.
Sunnyvale’s fourth line is good, but Montreal has Point at 4C.
Then the discipline/workload layer matters. Sunnyvale’s penalties do not just give Montreal power plays. They remove Lalonde, Pitre, Sittler, Tkachuk, Cleghorn, Stevens and Pratt from even-strength minutes, and they add more PK work to Harvey, Bergeron, Gainey and Stevens.
Those minutes are not free.
Stage 3: What percentage of the series does each unit actually control once minutes and important minutes are applied?
This is the part that matters most in a close series.
A team can have a historical edge on paper, but if that edge is concentrated in players who are taking penalties, killing extra penalties, or being forced into impossible workload, the actual series share changes.
Line 1 matters most, but it is also where Sunnyvale carries the Lalonde/Pitre/Stevens penalty burden.
Line 2 matters heavily, especially for secondary scoring, but that is where Sittler’s playoff/PIM pressure and Cleghorn’s penalty profile show up.
Line 3 can give Sunnyvale a suppression advantage, but if that is its job, then it becomes closer to a wash in terms of winning the scoring battle.
Line 4 matters less in raw minutes, but Montreal’s edge there is unusually important because Point is not a normal fourth-line center.
Special teams matter more than usual because Sunnyvale’s own stars create extra events.
And goaltending gets a real share of the final percentage in a seven-game series. Especially when the series is projected as low-event.
That is why Dryden matters so much here.
This feels a little like 1971 all over again. The other side has a lot of the paper advantages, a lot of the offensive arguments, and a lot of the reasons it “should” work. But the game still has to shrink. The chances still have to get through the structure. And at the end of it, Ken Dryden is still standing there.
So my formula is not:
It is:
That is why I do not see Sunnyvale’s paper edges translating cleanly into Sunnyvale in 6.
Once the series is played through minutes, matchups, penalties, workload and Dryden, I see a Game 7 series.
I am not going to make a prediction because that’s impossible to do for a seven game overtime win with Ken Dryden getting the Connie Smythe. But that is what I am aiming for. I would never make that a prediction, though I would leave it up to you, dear voter. Because when you get up in the morning and shave that handsome face of yours you will have to turn in your ATD vote and someone will have to win this series.
My team is built big for playoff hockey, but it doesn’t take the penalty minutes that Sunnyvale does, and at the end of the road sits Ken Dryden the hero of the 1971 Stanley Cup playoffs. He is 6‘6“ adjusted in height.
Sunnyvale says that size doesn’t matter. But look at my top two units they are built for a playoff hockey. Potvin, Clapper, Moose Johnson, Barkov, Kopitar, Shanahan, Glen Anderson and Bossy lurking. With Big Dryden. Those two units form layers that I don’t believe his style of players will be able to fight through, especially with their short fuses.
Stage 1: Who has the historical player value?
This is where Sunnyvale’s case is strongest. If we are looking at pure historical name value, Sunnyvale has Harvey, Stevens, Cleghorn, Lalonde, Malone, Bergeron, Gainey, Arbour and Vezina. That is a real foundation.
Montreal is not exactly empty on historical value either: Potvin, Bossy, Dryden, Clapper, Moose Johnson, Scotty Davidson and Coach Gorman.
But I have added style players that have enough of a peak to make a huge difference and add size and playoff pedigree: Barkov, Kopitar, Sundin, Shanahan, Rantanen, Point, Glen Anderson AND Tonelli, McCrimmon, McAvoy, Neilson, Cashman.
I am not denying the starting point.
Stage 2: How much of that value actually survives once minutes, matchup, style, discipline, workload, and goalie are applied?
Everything is infected by his penalty minutes, including his edge in special teams, which becomes a wash, his even strength minutes for his top unit, which are reduced, and further exacerbated by Harvey and Stevens having to spend a lot of time on the penalty kill, lowering their ES minutes. Not only that, but when they are on the ice, they have to get through two multiple selke and cup winning monster centers. And a dynasty true #1 dman in Potvin.
My team is built to match up in a seven game series with two-way play, size, limited penalty minutes, defensive layers, and 49 total Stanley cups. Sunnyvale has 48 but I have 10 more in my top six and top four defenseman.
PIMs. An avg of over 9 PIMs per game in the playoffs just between Pitre and Lalonde, without counting Stevens who is at 1.9.... An AVERAGE OF 11 PIMs. Harvey was 1.1... Malone 6 PIMs in 9 NHL playoff games. Not bad, but it gets added to the stack.
Over 13 PIMs per playoff game just for your first unit.
- Pitre (1.28/GP in RS to a whopping 4.64 in the playoffs.
- Lalonde (massive PIMs, from 2.5/gm in RS to 4.5 in the playoff games available on eliteprospects.com)
- Stevens (1.9/gm, playoffs)
- Sittler (1.803/gm, playoffs),
- Cleghorn (2.14 RS/GP to 1.87/GP... still very high),
More PIMs thrown in for good measure:
- M. Tkachuk (2/gm, playoffs),
- Pratt (1.59 in the playoffs, but he won't play much), etc.
The same edge that gives Sunnyvale intimidation, pressure, and violence also gives Montreal more power-play opportunities.
This is where I think the series gets much tighter.
Historical value does not automatically translate cleanly into seven-game playoff value. It has to survive the matchup.
Sunnyvale’s top line still has to get through Barkov, Potvin, Clapper/McCrimmon support, size, structure, and Dryden.
Sunnyvale’s second line still has to get clean secondary offense from Sittler (-21 in the playoffs with almost 2 minutes in penalties on average in the playoffs ) while carrying his playoff/PIM pressure, and from Cleghorn while carrying Cleghorn’s penalty/workload pressure.
Sunnyvale’s third line is excellent, but if it is being used to suppress Sundin/Rantanen, then it is also accepting a lower offensive role.
Sunnyvale’s fourth line is good, but Montreal has Point at 4C.
Then the discipline/workload layer matters. Sunnyvale’s penalties do not just give Montreal power plays. They remove Lalonde, Pitre, Sittler, Tkachuk, Cleghorn, Stevens and Pratt from even-strength minutes, and they add more PK work to Harvey, Bergeron, Gainey and Stevens.
Those minutes are not free.
Stage 3: What percentage of the series does each unit actually control once minutes and important minutes are applied?
This is the part that matters most in a close series.
A team can have a historical edge on paper, but if that edge is concentrated in players who are taking penalties, killing extra penalties, or being forced into impossible workload, the actual series share changes.
Line 1 matters most, but it is also where Sunnyvale carries the Lalonde/Pitre/Stevens penalty burden.
Line 2 matters heavily, especially for secondary scoring, but that is where Sittler’s playoff/PIM pressure and Cleghorn’s penalty profile show up.
Line 3 can give Sunnyvale a suppression advantage, but if that is its job, then it becomes closer to a wash in terms of winning the scoring battle.
Line 4 matters less in raw minutes, but Montreal’s edge there is unusually important because Point is not a normal fourth-line center.
Special teams matter more than usual because Sunnyvale’s own stars create extra events.
And goaltending gets a real share of the final percentage in a seven-game series. Especially when the series is projected as low-event.
That is why Dryden matters so much here.
This feels a little like 1971 all over again. The other side has a lot of the paper advantages, a lot of the offensive arguments, and a lot of the reasons it “should” work. But the game still has to shrink. The chances still have to get through the structure. And at the end of it, Ken Dryden is still standing there.
So my formula is not:
Historical value = series advantage.
It is:
Historical value × minutes share × important-minutes share × matchup access × style translation × discipline/workload × goalie filter.
That is why I do not see Sunnyvale’s paper edges translating cleanly into Sunnyvale in 6.
Once the series is played through minutes, matchups, penalties, workload and Dryden, I see a Game 7 series.
Last edited:
Thank you for the great duel @tinyzombies ! I think you did a fantastic job at the team building aspect and the roster was a great fit for what Gorman tried to do in real life. Really respect the arguments you made and the idea behind the build.
Cheers to a great one sir!
Cheers to a great one sir!
tinyzombies
Registered User
I was almost hoping I wouldn’t win because look at that defense. Congratulations on a kick butt team. Good luck moving forward!
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