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Player Discussion Stuart Skinner

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Soundwave said:
Every team has nights like that. That was their 3rd game in 4 nights and a bunch of players were likely playing with the flu. This is a high scoring era we are in for people who didn't get the memo.

And still the Oilers had more high danger chances for than the Flames did.

Make a goddamn save.

.901 save percentage on a team that is among the best in the NHL for limiting high danger chances against is a complete embarrassment.
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The Oilers didn’t bother to show up until they were out of it. Getting schooled by Calgary at home is an embarrassment.
 
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Soundwave said:
Every team has nights like that. That was their 3rd game in 4 nights and a bunch of players were likely playing with the flu.

And still the Oilers had more high danger chances for than the Flames did.

Make a goddamn save.

.901 save percentage on a team that is among the best in the NHL for limiting high danger chances against is a complete embarrassment.
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Sure haven't been limiting those lately
 
Yuke said:
Sure haven't been limiting those lately
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Two games doesn't make a season. They are no.1 in the league for fewest high danger shots against for the season. That's a fact.

If you as a goalie need your hand held to go to the potty every single game, that's not a teneable situation.

There are going to be games where the team doesn't have it. Like a 3rd game in 4 nights.

If you're a legit top goalie, you step it up and bring your game up a notch. Skinner has no capability of doing this. This guy is a large downgrade on a 40 year old Mike Smith.
 
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Soundwave said:
Two games doesn't make a season. They are no.1 in the league for fewest high danger shots against for the season. That's a fact.

If you as a goalie need your hand held to go to the potty every single game, that's not a teneable situation.

There are going to be games where the team doesn't have it. Like a 3rd game in 4 nights.

If you're a legit top goalie, you step it up and bring your game up a notch. Skinner has no capability of doing this. This guy is a large downgrade on a 40 year old Mike Smith.
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More than 2 games. Last game the 1st 5 goals against not a player near the shooter. Not a stick on him just all the time to load up. When this happens the GA add up.
Skinner is positional goalie. Team knows that. Play to his strength like they did on the winning streak and we are ok.
 
Yuke said:
More than 2 games. Last game the 1st 5 goals against not a player near the shooter. Not a stick on him just all the time to load up. When this happens the GA add up.
Skinner is positional goalie. Team knows that. Play to his strength like they did on the winning streak and we are ok.
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Oh so he doesn’t have to make a save from 30 feet gotcha

We were losing this game 3-2 against the coyotes

Dam if only the team quit giving up so many opportunities
 

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GMofOilers said:
Oh so he doesn’t have to make a save from 30 feet gotcha

We were losing this game 3-2 against the coyotes

Dam if only the team quit giving up so many opportunities
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2 shelf shots and a power play screen. Your expectations are high
 
GMofOilers said:
Not his fault gotcha! Better defense so he doesn’t have to handle any shots.

Teams get 40ft shots every game. NHL goalies save them.
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Skinner is average goalie.
Watch the other good teams. Guys are forced outside, few shots taken without being hindered. Always a guy between the puck and goalie. They form a box in front of their net, we run around like chickens.
We get 40 shots because they are from bad angles, a ways out with someone draped all over them.
Be nice if Skinner saved more but he doesn't so best way to prevent that, play better D.
 
Yuke said:
Skinner is average goalie.
Watch the other good teams. Guys are forced outside, few shots taken without being hindered. Always a guy between the puck and goalie. They form a box in front of their net, we run around like chickens.
We get 40 shots because they are from bad angles, a ways out with someone draped all over them.
Be nice if Skinner saved more but he doesn't so best way to prevent that, play better D.
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Like in the diagram I sent you? 3GA from shots 35 ft away on bad angles?

Isn’t that playing good D? Pretty sure unrealistic expectations on D right now and no expectations on goaltending! That’s the fact.
 
GMofOilers said:
Not his fault gotcha! Better defense so he doesn’t have to handle any shots.

Teams get 40ft shots every game. NHL goalies save them.
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With the hardcore Skinner supporters it's never Skinner's fault. It doesn't matter if there are several goalies out there that can make the saves he needs to, it's never his fault!
 
Hard to understand the love for Skinner. His style of goaltending is terrible. He can’t lockdown the bottom or the top of the net. He’s on his knees when the puck is in the corner. Majority of the time he plays the puck he gives it away to the other team.
 
Skinner's stats under Woodcroft this season:

9 Games Played
3.58 Goals Against Average(Pretty terrible)(4.44 for Campbell JFC!)
2.69 Expected Goals Against Average(Actually better to last year after the Ekholm trade)
(3.77 for Campbell holy sh** they played horribad in front of him-see D below)

Skinner's stats during the 27 game streak(Nov 24th to All Star Break):

21 Games Played
1.78 Goals Against Average(Vezina Caliber-See Ullmark Below)
2.72 Expected Goals Against Average(Basically the same as under Woodcroft after the Ekholm trade)

Skinner's stats since All-Star break:

7 Games Played
4.05 Goals Against Average(Horrible)
3.28 Expected Goals Against Average(Not good)

Skinner's stats before Ekholm trade last season:

34 Games Played
2.90 Goals Against Average(Better than I remembered)(3.48 for Campbell)
3.26 Expected Goals Against Average(Not good)(2.80 for Campbell)

Skinner's stats after the Ekholm trade last season:

16 Games Played
2.38 Goals Against Average(Improvement similar to below)(2.88 for Campbell)
2.78 Expected Goals Against Average(Nice improvement)(3.01 for Campbell)

Skinner's Playoff stats 2023:

12 Games Played
3.62 Goals Against Average(Pretty terrible)
2.94 Expected Goals Against Average(Pretty Good Considering it's the Playoffs)
For reference the xGAA for Campbell was 2.96 so the defense was pretty consistent although very small sample size for Campbell)


Just for reference of what a good team's goaltending looks like:

Linus Ullmark:

2.66 Expected Goals Against Average 2022-23 Season
1.87 Actual Goals Against Average 2022-23 Season(He won the Vezina)

These kind of numbers + a good team = historic season.

3.21 Expected Goals Against Average 2023-24 Season
2.71 Actual Goals Against Average 2023-24 Season

Not as good as 22/23 but still stopping .5 goals more than you should usually lets you be a pretty good team, which they are, even with some key player losses.

Jeremy Swayman:

2.83 Expected Goals Against Average 2022-23 Season
2.21 Actual Goals Against Average 2022-23 Season
3.01 Expected Goals Against Average 2023-24 Season
2.48 Actual Goals Against Average 2023-24 Season

Really good, consistent numbers both seasons no matter how you slice it.

My conclusions(yours may vary):

A) Our defensive improvement under Knoblauch/Coffey is overblown in some ways as seen in the xGAA. I think the situational improvement(closing out games) is real but it helps when your goalies don't stink early forcing you to chase games every night. This situational improvement could also be seen under Woodcroft after the Ekholm trade last season but, no doubt, it was taken to a whole new level under Knoblauch/Coffey. Unfortunately, that kind of defensive improvement means almost nothing if you're consistently chasing games.

B) In a league of parity with 1 goal games all over the schedule, a good team can do historic things like setting season point records & 16 game winning streaks when your goalie gives up almost a goal less per game than they statistically should. Conversely, if they give up something approaching a goal more than they statistically should, the team sucks & coaches get fired.

C) Even good teams when they're playing well give up scoring chances. Boston was the only team I even looked at &, honestly, I expected their xGAA from last year to be a bit better than it was but it was very similar to Edmonton's during the timeframes I posted & will guess they are similar to the other good teams league wide. I've said for years, when the Oilers get NHL quality goaltending, when their GAA is .25-.4 better than their xGAA, they will win more than their share of games. We all know what happens when the goaltending stinks & their GAA is actually higher than their xGAA.

D) The players, goalies included, must have been reading their press clippings during the All-Star break & forgot how to defend. The goaltending has been horrible but the numbers(& the eye test) also show the defensive play has been horrible too. Some of that is due to early goals & chasing games like earlier in the year for sure but....
I've always said when you know your goalie is struggling/stinks you play differently/scared in front of them. I think we're seeing some of this but I'm not just gonna give the players a pass & put all the blame on the goalie. There's plenty of blame to go around.

E) Skinner is a capable NHL goalie as evidenced by his numbers all last year. I know everybody just wants to point to the playoff failure but a lot of goalies fail in their 1st shot in the playoffs. If he performed like he did in the regular season where his GAA was 0.4 below his xGAA instead of 0.7 above, we would have been just fine. Then he showed he's more than capable for a month & a half this year.

F) I know, some will reply with "I'm not reading all that gibberish yada yada yada" because it doesn't align with the narrative they want pushed but, whatever.
 
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elmeroil said:
With the hardcore Skinner supporters it's never Skinner's fault. It doesn't matter if there are several goalies out there that can make the saves he needs to, it's never his fault!
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And with the Skinner haters it’s never anyone else’s fault. Never mind the guy who put the current goaltending on the ice.
 
I hope Skinner is not the starter for the playoffs. I have more confident in Campbell
 
KeithIsActuallyBad said:
And with the Skinner haters it’s never anyone else’s fault. Never mind the guy who put the current goaltending on the ice.
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It's all on Holland but at the end of the day Skinner needs excellent D to mask his shortcomings. The guys going on and on here about how awesome Skinner was during the streak were talking like he was a Vezina candidate.

He's very average and there's no denying that. Really good goalies can bail teams out when they don't have it like the Oilers haven't for awhile. Skinner is not that kind of goalie, he needs the team to bail him out.
 
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Soundwave said:
Every team in the league has a game or two like last night every 10-15 games. Do you think all these other teams never allow chances against?

Do you want to guess which team in the NHL (all situations) is no.1 in the league right now for fewest high danger chances against?

It's (gasp) the Oilers.

Our goaltenders having the mediocre numbers given that fact is an embarrassment. Plain and simple. Skinner is a large downgrade from a 40 year old Mike Smith who was basically playing his final year here injured all year long.
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If I remember correctly, after Mike Smith's last playoffs, he basically got ran out of town by a lot of people. It was, thanks for nothing old man, we need to upgrade badly. A couple years later, and the same people are wishing we had him back.:laugh:
 
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KeithIsActuallyBad said:
And with the Skinner haters it’s never anyone else’s fault. Never mind the guy who put the current goaltending on the ice.
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.901 save % 30th in league among players with20 or more GP. Mentioning this = "hate speech"

Or that the backup is sporting better numbers playing on the same team. Inconvenient to mention that.

Skinner just ain't much.
 
Drivesaitl said:
.901 save % 30th in league among players with20 or more GP. Mentioning this = "hate speech"

Or that the backup is sporting better numbers playing on the same team. Inconvenient to mention that.

Skinner just ain't much.
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Yes in far less games. Sample sizes and all that.

But the point is that skinner isn’t supposed to be the starter but because someone fubared the goaltending situation this is where we are.

Im not going to blame someone for being thrust into a role they’re not ready for.
 
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