GDT: STORM FOLK @ PREHISTORIC KITTENS

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Svechhammer

THIS is hockey?
Jun 8, 2017
24,896
91,026
Saw this on Reddit, needed to be posted here....

Rod is right, we are being singled out by officiating in these playoffs and the numbers back it up
iwpe7efcdv071.png


Looking at our graph here, which is the average number of penalty minutes per game, with the red being in the playoffs and the blue being the regular season, there are some teams seeing more calls against them and some seeing less. Carolina, Montreal, Toronto, Tampa Bay, and Florida are seeing a lot more penalty minutes in the playoffs than in their regular seasons, whereas Winnipeg, Edmonton, and Vegas are seeing a lot less penalty minutes. But maybe this is because the boys are all fired up being in the playoffs and are being more aggressive, so the number of hits have gone up, and then we should see more penalties, right? Thanks for asking.

94afh4inev071.png


In this graph, we are taking the ratio of average number hits in a playoff game divided by average number of hits in a regular season game (shown in the red bar) and the ratio of average number penalty minutes in a playoff game divided by average number of penalty minutes in a regular season game (shown in blue). If a team is being more aggressive, the hit ratio (red bar) should be above 1 and we should see a comparable increase in penalty minutes. But everyone is being more aggressive than their regular season games, with Winnipeg leading the pack at hitting about 3.5x more often than their regular season match-ups. What we are looking for is if the blue bar is longer than the red bar, and wait for it, for Carolina, Florida, and Toronto, there might be more hits (in Carolina's games, hitting about 1.4x as often), but there are even higher increase in penalty minutes (for Carolina, 2.3x as many penalty minutes). So if we were to compare the regular season versus the playoffs, there are more hits in a playoff game, but for Carolina, they are more likely to get penalties for a hit.

If we organize the data by the playoff pairings, we see that certain refs are "swallowing their whistle", for the Edmonton v. Winnipeg and the Vegas v. Minnesota pairs, but what we see for our match-up is that Nashville is seeing an equivalent increase in calls to hits (about a 1:1 ratio, red to blue bar increases), Carolina is seeing about 2.3x as many penalty minutes to the 1.4x as many hits.
 

Svechhammer

THIS is hockey?
Jun 8, 2017
24,896
91,026
In before a certain someone comes along to virtue signal that you're wrong and we should just take less penalties.
Its damning that Nashville's hit increase is actually higher than their penalty increase per game while our penalty increase is almost double our hit increase. And then to see that our average PIM has basically tripled in the playoffs because of it...

Literally every other series where those rates are skewed to one team is that the refs really are swallowing their whistle and a team just amped up their hits without the penalties doing it. Ours has a marginal at best increase between both teams and one team is getting nearly 3x the penalties they had in the regular season while the other has a penalty rate lower than their hit rate increase. And its not like we have any big 10 min misconduct penalties that are throwing this off, we're just seeing a steady march to the box for stick infractions.

If you wanted the smoking gun, this is it.
 

Tryamw

Loyal Fan of Jerks
Sponsor
Nov 2, 2016
40,177
78,265
Durham
In before a certain someone comes along to virtue signal that you're wrong and we should just take less penalties.
Well We SHOULD take less penalties.. Most of the calls against us I can see what they called. But It's that they miss so much the other way.. Butterfly effect and all that we don't know how things would have changed. but it's there.
 

WreckingCrew

Registered User
Feb 4, 2015
13,088
40,147
I didn’t expect to see Ned. Not because I thought he was bad but to go from constantly swapping goalies in the regular season to now playing him every game, especially with a double ot game...I thought he’d get a break.
Same, and because he played almost 40 extra min and faced nearly 60 shots? He wasn't as lights out as he has been, but he was far from bad or weak in net (none of the goals were really soft on his part)
 
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