Prospect Info: Stockton Heat and Prospect Discussion Megathread

[Ace Rimmer]

I don’t buy into theory that you are bad because of your line mates. You worked yourself into that situation, just like Monahan did in the NHL.

Pretty much this.

the man from the “Paris of the Prairies” seems like a mid-first-rounder who may well be available after 20th overall.

The biggest reason? Zary – while very “well-rounded” – does not do that many things at a high-end level. He is solid, or even, good, in almost every area, but not too much stands out in terms of skills or tools that present themselves to you as those of a future first line guy.

Scouting Report: Connor Zary - Smaht Scouting

Photo Credit – Allen Douglas / Kamloops Blazers Player Profile D.O.B – September 25, 2001Nationality – CanadaDraft Eligibility – 2020Height –6’0Weight –181 lbsPosition – CenterHandedness – Left Zary’s Style Of Play If Saskatoon native Connor Zary had been born just 10 days earlier he would have...

smahtscouting.com

Don't get me wrong, he'll be a good middle six NHLer that can step in on a top line down the road, but you ideally would want him lower than top line.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Pretty much this.

Scouting Report: Connor Zary - Smaht Scouting

Photo Credit – Allen Douglas / Kamloops Blazers Player Profile D.O.B – September 25, 2001Nationality – CanadaDraft Eligibility – 2020Height –6’0Weight –181 lbsPosition – CenterHandedness – Left Zary’s Style Of Play If Saskatoon native Connor Zary had been born just 10 days earlier he would have...

smahtscouting.com

Don't get me wrong, he'll be a good middle six NHLer that can step in on a top line down the road, but you ideally would want him lower than top line.

The reviews I saw like smahht scouting had him as a 2c. The comparison someone made was Horvat+ which would be a top end 2c. That is probably unlikely.

 

[DFF]

What report? The reports I saw said he did everything well except that he isn't particularly fast. So maybe Stankhoven was making HIM look good.

Here is one

'The biggest reason? Zary – while very “well-rounded” – does not do that many things at a high-end level. He is solid, or even, good, in almost every area, but not too much stands out in terms of skills or tools that present themselves to you as those of a future first line guy.'

I think he'll make it as a bottom 6 if he developed properly

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Here is one

'The biggest reason? Zary – while very “well-rounded” – does not do that many things at a high-end level. He is solid, or even, good, in almost every area, but not too much stands out in terms of skills or tools that present themselves to you as those of a future first line guy.'

I think he'll make it as a bottom 6 if he developed properly

A bad pick at 24 then. There are 6-7 players drafted after him with more potential than that.

 

[DFF]

A bad pick at 24 then. There are 6-7 players drafted after him with more potential than that.

At 24, it’s a gamble. They went with a safe bet but he may not be anything more than a 3rd liner

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

At 24, it’s a gamble. They went with a safe bet but he may not be anything more than a 3rd liner

True. Barron was a risk. I think Neighbours, Brisson and Peterka were the only relatively safe bets.

 

[Some Other Flame]

Zary will get his opportunity to show what he can do when a bunch of spots open up in Stockton next year.

Rucicka and Pelletier will be in the NHL. Philp, Gawdin, and Kirkland are group 6 UFA's. Froese is a UFA.

 

[TheHudlinator]

Lack of talent. He over achieved as a junior. It said so in his scouting report.

I don’t buy into theory that you are bad because of your line mates. You worked yourself into that situation, just like Monahan did in the NHL.

Do you believe this to be true in the inverse? Was Matt moulson a legit 30 goal scorer or do linemates only help and never hinder?

 

[cheechoo]

I like reading threads of prospects from before they were drafted. That's usually where you'll find the most impartial analysis and from fans of junior hockey that are watching games in live times, because I sure am not.

C Connor Zary - Kamloops Blazers, WHL (2020, 24th, CGY)

I've only seen 5/6 blazers games this year and I can't say I'm much of a scout either, but I'll offer my 2 cents for what it's worth. Zary doesn't seem to do anything exceptionally well, other than his recent knack for elevating his play at crucial moments. His vision and patience were...

hfboards.mandatory.com

Pegged as that traditional strong 2 way center, but man was he ever being gushed over by the WHL posters. Was getting top 3/5/10 shouts all throughout his D-1 and D-0. I agree I don't see gamebreaking skill or speed, but if he settles in as a cost controlled top 9 center with some special teams ability then it's a win of a draft pick imo.

 

[Mobiandi]

Always gave me an impression that he's a lesser Monahan. Tops out as a 3rd/4th liner. I'd trade him

 

[cheechoo]

Always gave me an impression that he's a lesser Monahan. Tops out as a 3rd/4th liner. I'd trade him

I don't think his game resembles anything of Monahan's.

 

[Dack]

1. Zary is a lot more similar to Tkachuk than Monahan. He likes having the puck on his stick in a way Monahan never did. The key difference is creativity and hands, Zary attempts Michigan goals once every few games. I can't emphasize enough how little he's like Monahan. I've never really been a Monahan fan. I like Zary. I've always been reminded of Brayden Schenn a bit.

2. He's playing in the bottom 6 because Stockton was on a roll by the time he was healthy. Frankly, he should have been played on the top line the second Ruzicka was called up because developing Zary > getting Glen Gawdin more ice time. Plus he already has chemistry with Phillips and will likely play with Pelletier in the future.

3. Zary didn't play on the same line as Stankoven in junior so I'd say it's pretty unlikely his scoring was influenced by him (not to mention that Stank went to the U18s last year so their games player have very little overlap). On top of that Zary's line played the top competition while Stankoven's played 2nd pairings.

4. Ultimately, he's a young 20 year old playing 3rd line minutes in the AHL and most people have already written him off because of it. He had 7 points in 9 games last year without any powerplay time; he didn't just get worse. Dylan Holloway actually plays big minutes and only has slightly better numbers. Same could be said for Sam Poulin who was taken a year earlier. I think people need to realize that linemates matter and that no 1st round picks are ever forced into the situation that he's in. They walk into the AHL on PP1 and in the top 6.

5. He might only be a winger at the NHL level (I think this is likely personally), or he might bust entirely but the idea that he only has bottom 6 upside is complete nonsense. He's got great hands, IQ and shooting. I see 0 reason he couldn't be a 50+ point player at the NHL level.

Edited for clarity I hope.

 

[Yepthatsme]

Don’t think people appreciate just how hard it is to come back from a broken bone, especially one like a foot for a hockey player.

First picture was taken last season when he was with Stockton. Second picture was taken this season. That’s a massive change in his body type. Couple that with limited opportunity this season in the lineup and most players from his draft can’t even play in the AHL yet, and his numbers make more sense with context.

How quick people are to forget he was almost a point per game in the AHL last season, and was in the hunt for leading the WHL in scoring before his injury. If he was only 2 months younger, he’d be dominating the WHL right now and we wouldn’t be having this discussion.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

I think it's easy to look at his stats and be disappointed.

But you look at his actual month by month progression coming back from injury and it's noticeably improved. He was barely scoring at all for like the first two months, but now he's at least 0.66ppg roughly since then, despite playing not top minutes.

 

[Volica]

1. Zary is a lot more similar to Tkachuk than Monahan. He likes having the puck on his stick in a way Monahan never did. The key difference is creativity and hands, Zary attempts Michigan goals once every few games. I can't emphasize enough how little he's like Monahan. I've never really been a Monahan fan. I like Zary. I've always been reminded of Brayden Schenn a bit.

2. He's playing in the bottom 6 because Stockton was on a roll by the time he was healthy. Frankly, he should have been played on the top line the second Ruzicka was called up because developing Zary > getting Glen Gawdin more ice time. Plus he already has chemistry with Phillips and will likely play with Pelletier in the future.

3. Zary didn't play on the same line as Stankoven in junior so I'd say it's pretty unlikely his scoring was influenced by him (not to mention that Stank went to the U18s last year so their games player have very little overlap). On top of that Zary's line played the top competition while Stankoven's played 2nd pairings.

4. Ultimately, he's a young 20 year old playing 3rd line minutes in the AHL and most people have already written him off because of it. He had 7 points in 9 games last year without any powerplay time; he didn't just get worse. Dylan Holloway actually plays big minutes and only has slightly better numbers. Same could be said for Sam Poulin who was taken a year earlier. I think people need to realize that linemates matter and that no 1st round picks are ever forced into the situation that he's in. They walk into the AHL on PP1 and in the top 6.

5. He might only be a winger at the NHL level (I think this is likely personally), or he might bust entirely but the idea that he only has bottom 6 upside is complete nonsense. He's got great hands, IQ and shooting. I see 0 reason he couldn't be a 50+ point player at the NHL level.

Edited for clarity I hope.

Good analysis here.

 

[HaveKnifeWillButcher]

What's the long term plan for Wolf. Four or five more years in the AHL and then off to another organization?

 

[Ace Rimmer]

What's the long term plan for Wolf. Four or five more years in the AHL and then off to another organization?

Not before ruining his development somehow. That's usually how things go for Flames goaltending prospects.

 

[Mazatt]

I can't comment too specifically on prospect discourse cause I readily admit I can't really watch, and even if I did couldn't provide anything other than basic "good game/bad game" type stuff, but as far as counting stats go for Zary.

Last season he had the 7 in 9 stretch and I beleive that was on a line with Ruzicka and Phillips. In that stretch he starts off with nothing in 2 games, goes 7 in 5, then does nothing the last 2 games points wise.

From here on it's just mapping info through months
Zary is injured in training camp so probably circa September/October, and comes back in late November and the stars are as follows
November: 1 goal, 1 point in 7 games
December: 3 goals, 7 points in 9 games
January: 1 assist, 1 point in 7 games
February: 1 goal, 5 points in 8 games
March: 4 goals, 7 points in 12 games

So off the numbers, tough to say beyond being very hot and cold which... idk, to me that adds up for a rookie playing in the bottom 6 in his age 20 season. Especially if the comparison jumping off point is Pelletier, who was uninjured, and as a 21 year old rookie is playing with Phillips, is destined to perform much greater.

At least just going off of his AHL production I'll be concerned year if: he isn't given a better opportunity because it suggests something unseen the coaches dislike in his game or what not, or if he does not produce. Just looking at his rank in rookie scoring he's surrounded by a bunch of '99 birthdays. Ideally you want him to "blow up" right away but again, I'm going to wait to pass non-watching judgement until he gets a real shot in his age 21 season like Pelletier.

 

[Kahvi]

Wolf continues to feast on success, becoming first AHL rookie since Juuse Saros to reach 29 wins in a season

Saros rookie season was 2015-16

 

[Bounces R Way]

Zary scores 6 seconds after Froese opens the scoring for the Heat to make it 2-0. Him and MEP really starting to turn it up production wise.

 

[Khrox]

Read something earlier today, apparently Wolf is one of 5 AHL rookie goaltenders since 2000 to hit 30 wins (the others include Rinne, Pavelec, Stalock, and Nicklas Svedberg). Kid's definitely a gamer.

 

[cheechoo]

Tuulola is interesting to me. I think camp a few years ago he was stealing the show. He's big and fast and plays aggressive and has some skill. Was playing in Liiga as a teenager and producing.

Wonder if he can break into the bottom 6 next season.

 

[Bounces R Way]

Tuulola is interesting to me. I think camp a few years ago he was stealing the show. He's big and fast and plays aggressive and has some skill. Was playing in Liiga as a teenager and producing.

Wonder if he can break into the bottom 6 next season.

He usually stands out positively when I watch but he's also 24 and under 0.5 ppg in the AHL on the best team. Even a guy like Dwight King was more productive in his AHL time.

Darryl is the coach now though and likes his beef so maybe he gets some 4th line time at some point. The boy is thicc for sure, listed at 225 but I wouldn't be surprised if it's closer to 240. Definitely a load to handle on the boards and in front of the net. Surprising speed and hard shot as well. Really quite a good athlete but a so-so pro hockey player.

 

[FLAMESFAN]

Tuulola is interesting to me. I think camp a few years ago he was stealing the show. He's big and fast and plays aggressive and has some skill. Was playing in Liiga as a teenager and producing.

Wonder if he can break into the bottom 6 next season.

I'd put the chances of that at slim.

He didn't have a great 1st half, and I really wondered if he'd even be signed again. He's had a much better 2nd half though. He seems to get alot of PK time too.

 

[Yepthatsme]

6 goals in his last 8 games for Zary, after only having 5 on the season before that. He must not have liked some of the things being said about him around here.