GDT: Stars @ Devils - 6:00 PM - MSG

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I'd be ok with that game if we didn't see it for so much of the season. They just have no pop outside of Jack/Bratt. Timo looks like he doesn't want to score ever, Nico's been meh to good but can't score himself since his shooting bender, the depth is ATROCIOUS offensively, one injury from having Mercer and Palat in the top 6. Fitz has done tremendous on defense but it might be time to fire him within a year if this is the garbage he continues to pedal offensively. I also don't like his heavy handed approach when it comes to issue. It's good to be proactive but he goes too far to fix problems on the roster.

To make the playoffs:
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Alert Vegas about the “hasn’t even cracked .500 in two months” rule that takes teams out of contention. It doesn’t seem to have impacted their odds to make the playoffs or the Cup.

They're covering their bases with the East since it's so mediocre in regards to odds, this is a bad faith argument to keep bringing up every few weeks

 

[Satans Hockey]

I'd be ok with that game if we didn't see it for so much of the season. They just have no pop outside of Jack/Bratt. Timo looks like he doesn't want to score ever, Nico's been meh to good but can't score himself since his shooting bender, the depth is ATROCIOUS offensively, one injury from having Mercer and Palat in the top 6. Fitz has done tremendous on defense but it might be time to fire him within a year if this is the garbage he continues to pedal offensively. I also don't like his heavy handed approach when it comes to issue. It's good to be proactive but he goes too far to fix problems on the roster.



They're covering their bases with the East since it's so mediocre in regards to odds, this is a bad faith argument to keep bringing up every few weeks

I feel like I'm one of the more positive ones around here which is pretty hilarious as it is but yeah it's been such a long stretch now that it's definitely concerning. It's just hard to see a long postseason run coming since they haven't been really consistent. Just hoping everyone catches fire at the right time and they make a run when it matters most.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

Is it that we lost a game? Or is that we keep seeing the same pattern of offensive issues and we’ve lost more games than we’ve won for two months now?

They obviously know it’s the latter, those comments are just their way of coping. I don’t understand the need to so brazenly misrepresent the complaints, but whatever makes them feel better.

 

[Devs3cups]

I’m pretty comfortable with the group overall, but that bottom-6 needs more, as has been often said around here.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

They're covering their bases with the East since it's so mediocre in regards to odds, this is a bad faith argument to keep bringing up every few weeks

The odds are the odds. The east being “mediocre” kinda blows a hole in the idea that they’re not a contender then, doesn’t it?

Obviously they’ve run cold lately, but even with the crippling inability to finish that should have you lose all faith in the team, they still have a higher shooting percentage than Carolina, Florida, and Edmonton. Washington’s absurd 13.2% shooting has made for a fun season for them. Good luck with relying on that in the playoffs.

 

[HersheyBob27]

Simon Nemec has been the worst player in the NHL this season.

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It is time for Seamus Casey or Hatakka if they want a player more in the Siegenthaler mold.

Should get an award for that . Not easy to do

 

[Call Me Al]

it ridiculous to try and convince everyone that what we see with our own eyes isn’t reality.

yes, they are very good at suppressing chances and they’re good at creating chances. a few players are elite at controlling play and creating chances. but there’s no depth, and no consistent finishers. it’s weird to keep saying they’re creating chances, they’re fine, when creating chances was never ever the issue.

this team is what it is though - they just don’t have enough depth scoring and they’ve been pretty mediocre for a significant stretch. they should make the playoffs on account of their hot streak and how bad the rest of the division is, but even that’s not guaranteed if they have one more cold run coinciding with a columbus winning streak.

i keep reading about baseball teams having pitching labs and hitting labs to study their players and help and i think the devils should do that for shooting. how many years have we seen our guys create chance after chance struggling to score when other teams just capitalize on the handful of chances we give up each game?

 

[SansaStark]

it ridiculous to try and convince everyone that what we see with our own eyes isn’t reality.

yes, they are very good at suppressing chances and they’re good at creating chances. a few players are elite at controlling play and creating chances. but there’s no depth, and no consistent finishers. it’s weird to keep saying they’re creating chances, they’re fine, when creating chances was never ever the issue.

this team is what it is though - they just don’t have enough depth scoring and they’ve been pretty mediocre for a significant stretch. they should make the playoffs on account of their hot streak and how bad the rest of the division is, but even that’s not guaranteed if they have one more cold run coinciding with a columbus winning streak.

i keep reading about baseball teams having pitching labs and hitting labs to study their players and help and i think the devils should do that for shooting. how many years have we seen our guys create chance after chance struggling to score when other teams just capitalize on the handful of chances we give up each game?

They haven’t been able to finish for years. It’s one thing that people seem to miss with the Rags success (especially against CAR) is that they are elite at finishing. Or at least they were.

No trade is going to put us in the upper tier this year. It’s either the top guys drag us to a second round or first round exit or worse we slip out of the playoffs. We’ll get to round 1, but CAR is going to destroy us like last time. Either way we’ll never get past Florida/Tampa/Was like this.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

it ridiculous to try and convince everyone that what we see with our own eyes isn’t reality.

yes, they are very good at suppressing chances and they’re good at creating chances. a few players are elite at controlling play and creating chances. but there’s no depth, and no consistent finishers. it’s weird to keep saying they’re creating chances, they’re fine, when creating chances was never ever the issue.

this team is what it is though - they just don’t have enough depth scoring and they’ve been pretty mediocre for a significant stretch. they should make the playoffs on account of their hot streak and how bad the rest of the division is, but even that’s not guaranteed if they have one more cold run coinciding with a columbus winning streak.

i keep reading about baseball teams having pitching labs and hitting labs to study their players and help and i think the devils should do that for shooting. how many years have we seen our guys create chance after chance struggling to score when other teams just capitalize on the handful of chances we give up each game?

Last year a far worse team had 264 goals on 266 expected goals all situations. The champions had 265 goals on 290 expected.

The year before we had 289 on 295 expected. This year we have 176 on 199 expected. Very frustrating.

 

[Triumph]

it ridiculous to try and convince everyone that what we see with our own eyes isn’t reality.

yes, they are very good at suppressing chances and they’re good at creating chances. a few players are elite at controlling play and creating chances. but there’s no depth, and no consistent finishers. it’s weird to keep saying they’re creating chances, they’re fine, when creating chances was never ever the issue.

this team is what it is though - they just don’t have enough depth scoring and they’ve been pretty mediocre for a significant stretch. they should make the playoffs on account of their hot streak and how bad the rest of the division is, but even that’s not guaranteed if they have one more cold run coinciding with a columbus winning streak.

i keep reading about baseball teams having pitching labs and hitting labs to study their players and help and i think the devils should do that for shooting. how many years have we seen our guys create chance after chance struggling to score when other teams just capitalize on the handful of chances we give up each game?

This is three paragraphs of reasonable statement followed by a fourth paragraph that is pure confirmation bias. The Devils do not have a scoring problem. They are middle of the pack in shooting percentage while having 4 fewer empty net goals than average. They are slightly below average in 5v5 shooting percentage while being slightly above on the power play and shorthanded. On balance, they are still an above-average scoring team, especially factoring in their lack of overtime results and lack of empty net goals. They're just not where they should be.

The Devils' three years before this, they were an average shooting team, they are -11 in xG 5v5, an imperceptible amount over 3 seasons, of course they are -54 in xGA which is a perceptible amount, which was caused by poor goaltending and bad defending, probably in that order. They are +0 in xG on the power play between 2022 and 2024.

It is funny to read through the last three pages of the thread where people argue about the last two months or whatever just forgetting about the last game the Devils played before this one where they scored 4 goals in 22 shots and 2.1 xG.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

The odds are the odds. The east being “mediocre” kinda blows a hole in the idea that they’re not a contender then, doesn’t it?

Obviously they’ve run cold lately, but even with the crippling inability to finish that should have you lose all faith in the team, they still have a higher shooting percentage than Carolina, Florida, and Edmonton. Washington’s absurd 13.2% shooting has made for a fun season for them. Good luck with relying on that in the playoffs.

I mean the Devils are also not going to get the benefit of the doubt of the Panthers by hockey fans, they don't have the track record of the Leafs/Canes making the playoffs granted neither team can make a far Cup run, Tampa Bay has the legendary pedigree with their veterans, the Capitals are good this year even though this board hates them. The East is mediocre beyond belief this year but the Devils are probably 4th or 5th best team, they need a Markstrom legendary run or some depth pieces pulling what the 2012 team did in the playoffs like Poni/4th line did. The Devils can win the East, just like any of those teams can, sports books don't want to get caught with their pants down giving good odds to a playoff team. It's as simple as that. I think the Devils will most likely be fine but you can't just use sportsbooks over what diehard fans think of the team in a particular moment lol. There were times last year the Devils lost as -500 ML favorites even this year

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

I didn’t watch any of the game but advanced stats show the 3rd line and Luke/Nemec stinking, but the rest looked good? Put in Casey for Nemec.

Why is it you want to replace Nemec and not Luke? Luke has a lot larger body of work from which to judge.

A better question. In what parallel universe did it seem like a good idea playing the two of them together?

 

[NJDevs26]

Because Nemec has been consistently bad all year and Luke has not

 

[Triumph]

I mean the Devils are also not going to get the benefit of the doubt of the Panthers by hockey fans, they don't have the track record of the Leafs/Canes making the playoffs granted neither team can make a far Cup run, Tampa Bay has the legendary pedigree with their veterans, the Capitals are good this year even though this board hates them. The East is mediocre beyond belief this year but the Devils are probably 4th or 5th best team, they need a Markstrom legendary run or some depth pieces pulling what the 2012 team did in the playoffs like Poni/4th line did. The Devils can win the East, just like any of those teams can, sports books don't want to get caught with their pants down giving good odds to a playoff team. It's as simple as that. I think the Devils will most likely be fine but you can't just use sportsbooks over what diehard fans think of the team in a particular moment lol. There were times last year the Devils lost as -500 ML favorites even this year

Come on - a -500 favorite should lose one out of six times. That's hardly some earth-shattering occurrence. Now obviously last season the Devils would've lost more than their share of games they were favorites in because of how sports betting works, and there's all sorts of issues with using sportsbooks as a guide but sportsbooks do avoid the fatalism of the most doomer fans.

 

[Jersey Fan 12]

Haula at this point seems to really be 14-15 Zubrus or 15-16 Ruutu levels of washed.

Funny. He looked just fine playing with Finland in the 4 Nations Tournament. Perhaps it's not him who is the problem?

 

[Clam Jensen]

Why is it you want to replace Nemec and not Luke? Luke has a lot larger body of work from which to judge.

A better question. In what parallel universe did it seem like a good idea playing the two of them together?

1) because Luke had a stretch of dominant play and Nemec has looked horrendous every game. What’s your rationale for benching Luke instead of Nemec?

2) Siegs going down really screwed them, but agree with you here

 

[Brooklyndevil]

Luke and Nemec definitely hurt us last night. Big game tonight, but the Dev’s haven’t been great in back to back games. And let’s hope they play Jack at center in the Milano Olympics next year. That’s where he’s at his best. Fitz definitely needs to make a couple trades. We need a scoring winger, third line center and a veteran defenseman. I doubt he can fill all those holes. I also hate to say it, because I always liked the kid, but Mercer and Nemec are two chips we have plus 2nd and 3rd round picks. I doubt we trade Meier. However, if it improves the team I’m all for it.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Come on - a -500 favorite should lose one out of six times. That's hardly some earth-shattering occurrence. Now obviously last season the Devils would've lost more than their share of games they were favorites in because of how sports betting works, and there's all sorts of issues with using sportsbooks as a guide but sportsbooks do avoid the fatalism of the most doomer fans.

That's the entire point lol. You can't just throw playoff odds and cup odds like they're end all be all, the East sucks in totality, that's why the Devils odds rarely change even though they've been mediocre to hot dog shit since Christmas. Any logical person would also point to how their odds have changed since then too. Sportbooks also don't take into account schedules or other stuff like that, what happens if the Devils have a horrendous Western trip they have coming up against very good teams + Utah? You can't just have the wool over your eyes lmao

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

I mean the Devils are also not going to get the benefit of the doubt of the Panthers by hockey fans, they don't have the track record of the Leafs/Canes making the playoffs granted neither team can make a far Cup run, Tampa Bay has the legendary pedigree with their veterans, the Capitals are good this year even though this board hates them. The East is mediocre beyond belief this year but the Devils are probably 4th or 5th best team, they need a Markstrom legendary run or some depth pieces pulling what the 2012 team did in the playoffs like Poni/4th line did. The Devils can win the East, just like any of those teams can, sports books don't want to get caught with their pants down giving good odds to a playoff team. It's as simple as that. I think the Devils will most likely be fine but you can't just use sportsbooks over what diehard fans think of the team in a particular moment lol. There were times last year the Devils lost as -500 ML favorites even this year

The Panthers didn’t finish well last year and didn’t even really in the playoffs either. You can win by generating lots of offense with average to below average finishing and suppressing chances. Especially with good goalie play. I would almost rather rely on that than bank on consistently out finishing your opponent, because when that dries up it can make things look extremely ugly.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

The Panthers didn’t finish well last year and didn’t even really in the playoffs either. You can win by generating lots of offense with average to below average finishing and suppressing chances. Especially with good goalie play. I would almost rather rely on that than bank on consistently out finishing your opponent, because when that dries up it can make things look extremely ugly.

If you're just going to ignore the fact that Florida had the benefit of the doubt for their previous year's run then I don't know what to tell you, man. The Devils don't have that benefit of the doubt, it's as simple as that. We've seen this core flail out more than we have seen them do well against bad situations/odds. Now, I blame Fitz more this year than the players but you can't just dismiss fans anger. That's the whole point of this board, lmao. I don't think they played bad last night but it's the same shit anyone with eyes have said since game 1 v Buffalo in Prague. And no one said they have to be the PDO Rangers of the past decade but it would be nice if they were legit finishers.

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

That's the entire point lol. You can't just throw playoff odds and cup odds like they're end all be all, the East sucks in totality, that's why the Devils odds rarely change even though they've been mediocre to hot dog shit since Christmas. Any logical person would also point to how their odds have changed since then too. Sportbooks also don't take into account schedules or other stuff like that, what happens if the Devils have a horrendous Western trip they have coming up against very good teams + Utah? You can't just have the wool over your eyes lmao

The team chasing us stinks and has Dallas, Detroit x2, Tampa, Florida, Rangers, us, Vegas, Rangers, us, Florida lol. And then still 2 more with Washington, 3 with Ottawa, 1 with Colorado, Vancouver, and Toronto, 2 with the Isles…if they do it I’m going to tip my cap to them.

Sportbooks absolutely take into account schedules, injuries, and all that stuff.

 

[Saint Beaurivage]

The GM had a fast talented team with the right amount of grit to build on a couple years ago, then makes moves that result in the team going backwards not forward. Now the team is questionable in terms of speed and agility and we can't find the GM. The trade deadline is too late, a change up chemistry trade should have been made a month ago. He will only overpay and compromise the team's future at the deadline at this point.

Over a decade of losing, any GM could have improved the team with all of the high draft picks and we are fighting for a playoff spot once again.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

The team chasing us stinks and has Dallas, Detroit x2, Tampa, Florida, Rangers, us, Vegas, Rangers, us, Florida lol. And then still 2 more with Washington, 3 with Ottawa, 1 with Colorado, Vancouver, and Toronto, 2 with the Isles…if they do it I’m going to tip my cap to them.

Sportbooks absolutely take into account schedules, injuries, and all that stuff.

I don't give a f*** about the Columbus Blue Jackets, lol. I want the Devils to be good, they haven't been good since late December. Why does this have to be some stupid ass argument that the other teams in the East are struggling that we have to be ok with subpar hockey especially in a season where they've played extremely well in?

 

[Call Me Al]

Why is it you want to replace Nemec and not Luke? Luke has a lot larger body of work from which to judge.

A better question. In what parallel universe did it seem like a good idea playing the two of them together?

lol. that’s true, like has a larger body of work and it show that he’s an nhl player, and a good one at that.

nemec has been awful when he’s been in the lineup this season. we’re also down to two LHD - you want to run two RHD-RHD pairs? with inexperienced players on their offhand?

Just say you hate the hughes brothers and spares us trying to parse bad faith arguments