GDT: Stars at Senators 7:30 p.m. ET; RDS2, TSN5, FS-SW, NHL.TV

[Alex1234]

4!

3 vs MTL
4 vs NYR
No?

 

[BonkTastic]

3 vs MTL
4 vs NYR
No?

Technically he scored 3 vs both teams.

Technically.

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

3 vs MTL
4 vs NYR
No?

My bad

Game Wrap: Jean-Gabriel Pageau's 4-goal night leads Senators to double-OT victory

 

[Alex1234]

Both games were insane

 

[Xspyrit]

I understand the whole “keeping the shots to the outside” strategy, but I worry that it’s unsustianable and just relies on ridiculous goaltending.

Furthermore, it’s got to be a huge drain on the players who are expected to clog the lanes and block an above-average amount of shots.

This is the reason we look so terrible when Anderson/Condon play average or slightly below. If you’re going to allow 40 shots every game then your goalies need to be all word to compensate. I’d much prefer a balanced defensive system that more actively reduces shots against.

The thing is most teams get good to great goaltending... Shots against is not important, scoring chances and high danger chances is what's important.

Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

13th in SV%
11th in SCSV% (ES)
14th HDSV% (ES)
22nd in SCSV% (PK)
14th in HDSV% (ES)

Also, something to keep in mind. Example, 5 mins into the first period vs Dallas, a bad Anderson's giveaway leads to 2 shots against and then a PP. Problem is that it's not an isolated event. If our goalies were able to play the puck properly, I assure you that there would be less shots against.

Now let's look at the quantity. It's hard to get a good read because not every team has played the same amount of games so I had to Excel my way into these numbers. Look at that it's pretty telling :

SA/60 at ES : 31st
SCA/60 at ES : ??? (Edit : there was a mistake here)
HDCA/60 at ES : 11th

Unless I really screwed up, it's actually pretty incredible. A lot of shots, but not a lot of chances. You need to be really good to play in the NHL, same goes for goalies. Routine shots are not that hard to stop, even for an amateur goalie it's not that hard. So despite the narrative, Sens have actually been good defensively. Andy and Condon gave up several weak goals at the beginning. Only one (vs LA) from Andy in the last 2 games. Make the routine saves, make a few great saves and you give your team a good chance to win the game.

 

[coladin]

Like the row or two of lodge style seating that was part of the fan zone last year? They used to sell tickets there before but your saying the individual bar seats there are now gone and it is a common area open to all?

In conjunction with the Senators, we have created the Hard Rock Club within the Canadian Tire Centre. Located in section 119, the Hard Rock Club will offer 1,500 sq. ft. of bar and lounge space that features Canadian and iconic rock n’ roll music and Hard Rock memorabilia, allowing fans to take in all the Ottawa Senators game action and live entertainment.

 

[Upgrayedd]

In conjunction with the Senators, we have created the Hard Rock Club within the Canadian Tire Centre. Located in section 119, the Hard Rock Club will offer 1,500 sq. ft. of bar and lounge space that features Canadian and iconic rock n’ roll music and Hard Rock memorabilia, allowing fans to take in all the Ottawa Senators game action and live entertainment.

I like the idea of being able to kind of move around during the game, I believe many if not most sports teams are moving towards this type of free range observing model lol, I like it!

 

[swiftwin]

The thing is most teams get good to great goaltending... Shots against is not important, scoring chances and high danger chances is what's important.

Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

13th in SV%
11th in SCSV% (ES)
14th HDSV% (ES)
22nd in SCSV% (PK)
14th in HDSV% (ES)

Also, something to keep in mind. Example, 5 mins into the first period vs Dallas, a bad Anderson's giveaway leads to 2 shots against and then a PP. Problem is that it's not an isolated event. If our goalies were able to play the puck properly, I assure you that there would be less shots against.

Now let's look at the quantity. It's hard to get a good read because not every team has played the same amount of games so I had to Excel my way into these numbers. Look at that it's pretty telling :

SA/60 at ES : 31st
SCA/60 at ES : 9th
HDCA/60 at ES : 11th

Unless I really screwed up, it's actually pretty incredible. A lot of shots, but not a lot of chances. You need to be really good to play in the NHL, same goes for goalies. Routine shots are not that hard to stop, even for an amateur goalie it's not that hard. So despite the narrative, Sens have actually been good defensively. Andy and Condon gave up several weak goals at the beginning. Only one (vs LA) from Andy in the last 2 games. Make the routine saves, make a few great saves and you give your team a good chance to win the game.

Good work.

Honestly, I think this plays to Anderson's strengths too. His biggest strength as a goalie is anticipating plays and tracking the puck. If we keep shots to the outside, Andy will track them and make routine save after routine save, even in traffic.

EDIT: On second thought, are you sure about these numbers? I did some math, and they don't look right. I have 16th in HDCA and 25th in SCA.

Either way, going from 31st in SA to 16th in HDCA shows that this is deliberate, and that keeping shots to the outside works.

 

[coladin]

I like the idea of being able to kind of move around during the game, I believe many if not most sports teams are moving towards this type of free range observing model lol, I like it!

True, you can get in with the cheapest seat and essentially have a 1st level box view of the game. They should chop out more boxes as there were too many to begin with

 

[JD1]

4!

different game

 

[Boud]

The thing is most teams get good to great goaltending... Shots against is not important, scoring chances and high danger chances is what's important.

Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

13th in SV%
11th in SCSV% (ES)
14th HDSV% (ES)
22nd in SCSV% (PK)
14th in HDSV% (ES)

Also, something to keep in mind. Example, 5 mins into the first period vs Dallas, a bad Anderson's giveaway leads to 2 shots against and then a PP. Problem is that it's not an isolated event. If our goalies were able to play the puck properly, I assure you that there would be less shots against.

Now let's look at the quantity. It's hard to get a good read because not every team has played the same amount of games so I had to Excel my way into these numbers. Look at that it's pretty telling :

SA/60 at ES : 31st
SCA/60 at ES : 9th
HDCA/60 at ES : 11th

Unless I really screwed up, it's actually pretty incredible. A lot of shots, but not a lot of chances. You need to be really good to play in the NHL, same goes for goalies. Routine shots are not that hard to stop, even for an amateur goalie it's not that hard. So despite the narrative, Sens have actually been good defensively. Andy and Condon gave up several weak goals at the beginning. Only one (vs LA) from Andy in the last 2 games. Make the routine saves, make a few great saves and you give your team a good chance to win the game.

Good post.

This is something I've explained to fans of other teams implying that this is not sustainable but I see that the numbers back up the eye test as well.

We give up a lot of shots when leading the game, but they are very low quality shots. Sure, every shot is a chance at scoring but the percentage of low quality shots that end up in goals and even scoring chances are minimal.

This is a problem with corsi. You will have a better corsi if you take 50 shots from the outside and get 10 scoring chances as compared to a team that puts 40 shots on net but gets 20 scoring chances. Scoring chances for and against are a lot more indicative of your team play than shots for and against. Again, I understand that shots (even low quality) lead to scoring chances, but it's to be evaluated with context.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Good post.

This is something I've explained to fans of other teams implying that this is not sustainable but I see that the numbers back up the eye test as well.

We give up a lot of shots when leading the game, but they are very low quality shots. Sure, every shot is a chance at scoring but the percentage of low quality shots that end up in goals and even scoring chances are minimal.

This is a problem with corsi. You will have a better corsi if you take 50 shots from the outside and get 10 scoring chances as compared to a team that puts 40 shots on net but gets 20 scoring chances. Scoring chances for and against are a lot more indicative of your team play than shots for and against. Again, I understand that shots (even low quality) lead to scoring chances, but it's to be evaluated with context.

True on the corsi .. my understanding is it uses shots to measure possession. The team shooting the puck more has the puck more. It would be a fair statement to say Dallas had the puck more.

 

[Cosmix]

Maximum Joy!

Ode to Joy!

 

[Cosmix]

so cruel, we don't play again until saturday

I think Melnyk fired our scheduler to save $$$ and we got the worst schedule in the league as a result!

 

[Cosmix]

We’re 3-2-1 now aren’t we?

That means we’re .500, when did we last have that? ECF year?

Your calculator is broken!

 

[Cosmix]

I've always been a huge fan of active defence (including pressure on the PK) because I strongly believe that passive systems sap away the motivation from the players and turn the mentality from "trying to win" to "trying not to lose".

At the same time, it's the kind of play that you will see early in the playoffs and it requires a tremendous amount of energy to maintain.

I think we were playing playoff hockey for much of the year as the "Pesky Sens" and we simply ran out of gas in the second round.

However, with expectations so low for this season, I really don't care at this point. Just go out there and give it all you've got from the get-go.

I like the 5 on attack and 5 on defence attitude! Get the D involved in the attack and make sure the Fs are not lazy on the backchecking.

 

[Cosmix]

Is Paul improving?
Dont know what to think about him

Yes he is improving, but he had far to go and has not reached the NHL level yet. If he develops a physical game he might earn a 4th line spot. Until then, he will remain an AHL player.

 

[Karl Prime]

Your calculator is broken!

They are .500. 3-2-1 is basically 3-3.

 

[Cosmix]

They are .500. 3-2-1 is basically 3-3.

Loser points still count towards the standings, giving 7 out of 12 possible points giving .583, but I see your logic.

 

[Karl Prime]

Loser points still count towards the standings, giving 7 out of 12 possible points giving .583, but I see your logic.

Yeah I guess.

I want to see them implement 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime win, 1 for a SO win, and none for any loss. I think it would make games better in that if it were a tie game with 5 minutes to go, both teams would know they had to score to secure the maximum amount of points they could get. There's nothing worse than watching a hockey game where both teams are playing safe and playing for OT, and then watching OT and nothing happens so they play for the SO. 3-on-3 has made that less of an issue because it's more end-to-end than 4-on-4 was, but still.

Or actually, in a better world I'd just let the game end in 3-on-3 no matter the length (it wouldn't take that long no matter how good the goalies are).

 

[Mingus Dew]

The thing is most teams get good to great goaltending... Shots against is not important, scoring chances and high danger chances is what's important.

Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

13th in SV%
11th in SCSV% (ES)
14th HDSV% (ES)
22nd in SCSV% (PK)
14th in HDSV% (ES)

Also, something to keep in mind. Example, 5 mins into the first period vs Dallas, a bad Anderson's giveaway leads to 2 shots against and then a PP. Problem is that it's not an isolated event. If our goalies were able to play the puck properly, I assure you that there would be less shots against.

Now let's look at the quantity. It's hard to get a good read because not every team has played the same amount of games so I had to Excel my way into these numbers. Look at that it's pretty telling :

SA/60 at ES : 31st
SCA/60 at ES : 9th
HDCA/60 at ES : 11th

Unless I really screwed up, it's actually pretty incredible. A lot of shots, but not a lot of chances. You need to be really good to play in the NHL, same goes for goalies. Routine shots are not that hard to stop, even for an amateur goalie it's not that hard. So despite the narrative, Sens have actually been good defensively. Andy and Condon gave up several weak goals at the beginning. Only one (vs LA) from Andy in the last 2 games. Make the routine saves, make a few great saves and you give your team a good chance to win the game.

But aren’t we concerned with the number of GA?

Like I get the desire to minimize high danger scoring changes, but the fundamental issue is the correlation between a allowing a huge number of shots and allowing a huge number of goals (I think we are 30th in the league in GA/60 but could be wrong).

Am I misunderstanding the analysis? We want to figure out how goals (x) are related to shots (y). High danger scoring chances are just the middle man there, no?

 

[Beville]

Loser points still count towards the standings, giving 7 out of 12 possible points giving .583, but I see your logic.

Yeah I was more going for W vs L

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Both games were insane

And games that sealed the fate of the outcome in both series. You knew both teams weren't coming back after those games. Those are the type of players you need. One's that can change outcomes of series and go for the kill when there's pushback.

 

[Xspyrit]

But aren’t we concerned with the number of GA?

Like I get the desire to minimize high danger scoring changes, but the fundamental issue is the correlation between a allowing a huge number of shots and allowing a huge number of goals (I think we are 30th in the league in GA/60 but could be wrong).

Am I misunderstanding the analysis? We want to figure out how goals (x) are related to shots (y). High danger scoring chances are just the middle man there, no?

The point is that you're not supposed to score at the NHL level against a NHL goalie with a routine shot. Frankly, as a goalie, I can tell you that they're not hard to stop at all. Players still take those shots because they hope for the occasional bad goal or bad rebound, or are just trying to get a face-off in the offensive zone, etc. That's why I keep repeating that what is really important is scoring chances and high danger scoring chances, for and against.

For me, it seems clear that the Sens are ready to concede low percentage shots from the sides and are focusing instead on not giving up too many good scoring chances from the middle of the ice. There is always place for improvement but the fact that they are 11th in HDCA/60 at ES while being last in SA/60 tells me they are doing a good job at it (so far)

Trying to prevent those routine shots more could actually disrupt your defensive box and open up more opportunities from the middle of the ice. Considering the inexperience and "averageness" of the personnel on the blueline, I'd say it's a pretty good strategy.

Good post.

This is something I've explained to fans of other teams implying that this is not sustainable but I see that the numbers back up the eye test as well.

We give up a lot of shots when leading the game, but they are very low quality shots. Sure, every shot is a chance at scoring but the percentage of low quality shots that end up in goals and even scoring chances are minimal.

This is a problem with corsi. You will have a better corsi if you take 50 shots from the outside and get 10 scoring chances as compared to a team that puts 40 shots on net but gets 20 scoring chances. Scoring chances for and against are a lot more indicative of your team play than shots for and against. Again, I understand that shots (even low quality) lead to scoring chances, but it's to be evaluated with context.

Thanks. Corsi is not that important. xGA and xGF are more important in my books.

Good work.

Honestly, I think this plays to Anderson's strengths too. His biggest strength as a goalie is anticipating plays and tracking the puck. If we keep shots to the outside, Andy will track them and make routine save after routine save, even in traffic.

EDIT: On second thought, are you sure about these numbers? I did some math, and they don't look right. I have 16th in HDCA and 25th in SCA.

Either way, going from 31st in SA to 16th in HDCA shows that this is deliberate, and that keeping shots to the outside works.

/60 : per 60 minutes played.

Not every team has played the same number of games and has had the same time at even strength, that's why bringing it to /60 gives you a better portrait.

True on the corsi .. my understanding is it uses shots to measure possession. The team shooting the puck more has the puck more. It would be a fair statement to say Dallas had the puck more.

Shot ATTEMPTS.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Shot ATTEMPTS.

yah yah shot attempts WOW.,. the police are out today. Shot attempts is the correct term, but they are shots, shots on goal , they can go wide, and they can be blocked, but they can't be an attempt at a shot where they whiffed on it.