Speculation: Stammergeddon 2024: Is Stamkos going to re-sign with the Lightning?

[Crunchrulz]

Folks seem to forget that one of the reasons for Stamkos to play hard after the All-Star break and in the brief postseason is he was auditioning for what may well be his final contract.
As with nearly every other free agent, once they realize they are going to be on the market, the incentive is there to produce and play to influence how much you get paid and for how long.
I understand that Stamkos is a heck of a nice guy and loves Tampa Bay. That being typed, if he gets a chance to play for an organization that is willing to pay him and has a better chance at the Cup than the Lightning, he needs to start looking at taking care of his family financially after he is done playing.

 

[Byrddog]

Folks seem to forget that one of the reasons for Stamkos to play hard after the All-Star break and in the brief postseason is he was auditioning for what may well be his final contract.
As with nearly every other free agent, once they realize they are going to be on the market, the incentive is there to produce and play to influence how much you get paid and for how long.
I understand that Stamkos is a heck of a nice guy and loves Tampa Bay. That being typed, if he gets a chance to play for an organization that is willing to pay him and has a better chance at the Cup than the Lightning, he needs to start looking at taking care of his family financially after he is done playing.

I’m thinking you’re right. At this point enough time since getting put out of the playoffs for a deal to get done. Unless there is a deal with the Oilers that was kept under wraps until after the playoffs finished to send a player freeing up cap to sign Stammer you have to think he will want to at least take a look at the market. There will be opportunities out there for him. We will kno soon if he walks the top six gets weaker. Even worse what if we lose two Russians before the start of the season.

 

[Crunchrulz]

I’m thinking you’re right. At this point enough time since getting put out of the playoffs for a deal to get done. Unless there is a deal with the Oilers that was kept under wraps until after the playoffs finished to send a player freeing up cap to sign Stammer you have to think he will want to at least take a look at the market. There will be opportunities out there for him. We will kno soon if he walks the top six gets weaker. Even worse what if we lose two Russians before the start of the season.

Good points.
While the Top Six does take a hit, the overall roster should get better having more Cap Space to sign better quality supporting players who can take ice time away from those top players allowing them to rest up a bit and be fresher for the post season.
If they can shed Sheary and Jeannot, great as that would add to the available space. Sheary is still rumored to be a buyout option while JBB has six days to work some kind of magic with Jeannot before that job gets a lot harder.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

You guys are both forgetting one real thing here - they may have a framework of a deal already done and in place. The problem is this, if you play your hand now and announce his signing, you're submitting that contract to the central registry and once thats done, you're either very close or over the cap. Now you're bargaining from a place of weakness, you can't undo the Stamkos contract. You're not going to get any help at this point (not that you necessarily were in the first place), but it guarantees your "weakness" I guess is the best way to explain it. Then you either have to take a deal from someone to get compliant or take it on the chin.

The other argument though we've rehashed a bunch of times around here, while I don't expect 91 to magically come cheap like some believe (5m for Stamkos is very, very wishful but would be amazing) i'll respond to you with a question. Lets say Stamkos does walk, you're 8.5m cap freed now - what do you think you'll get out there in free agency that will be comparable in production and cost?

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Thank you for the amazing 9 years

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It doesn't look super promising, that list has a lot of over the hill types that took at least 5m, and the rest look like a bunch of big money underachievers. I still think letting Stamkos walk is not only the wrong choice, but will drastically change the look of this team in different facets, especially with the man advantage, and not in a good way.

 

[Crunchrulz]

It appears the majority opinion here is to throw the blank check at Stamkos and use whatever is left to fill out the roster with bottom tier NHLers and AHL prospects.
As long as the majority is happy with keeping their aging fan favorites and first round exits when they make the playoffs due to an exhausted core six, so be it.
Disappointing that fans need to look no further than the Penguins to see what happens when you follow that path, yet that could never happen here with the depth of our pipeline.
Oh wait, that is nearly dry as well, isn't it?

 

[Byrddog]

Good points.
While the Top Six does take a hit, the overall roster should get better having more Cap Space to sign better quality supporting players who can take ice time away from those top players allowing them to rest up a bit and be fresher for the post season.
If they can shed Sheary and Jeannot, great as that would add to the available space. Sheary is still rumored to be a buyout option while JBB has six days to work some kind of magic with Jeannot before that job gets a lot harder.

If Stammer walks and Shery and Jeanott find their way out as well you looking at about 15 mil. Cirelli remains as the 2C May as well sign Duclairand make a run at Reinhardt. If that does not work target a couple 5 mil guys for that second line and an upgrade for the 3rd. But your right up against the cap yet again.

JBB is probably going to hang on to Cirelli and let that movment clause Kick in July 1 that is going to be regrettable.

 

[Crunchrulz]

If Stammer walks and Shery and Jeanott find their way out as well you looking at about 15 mil. Cirelli remains as the 2C May as well sign Duclairand make a run at Reinhardt. If that does not work target a couple 5 mil guys for that second line and an upgrade for the 3rd. But your right up against the cap yet again.

JBB is probably going to hang on to Cirelli and let that movment clause Kick in July 1 that is going to be regrettable.

As hard as that would be for some Tampa Bay fans to accept, you can do a lot of shopping with 15 million in Cap Space to find players to compliment the solid core five that you have.

 

[The Gongshow]

Would love to see some actual names of players some of you think are gonna fix our top 6 which is lacking 2 wingers at the moment with the, say 6 mil we have in cap. We aren't the top destination anymore. Just because we have money doesn't mean they come to Tampa. There's no guaranteed ring chasing here anymore

 

[ccman68]

i just don't see any reason stamkos wouldn't take 4-5 mill for 8 years. he'll get the same money he would otherwise and the team can stay competitive for the rest of his career. unless he for some reason needs the money in his pocket right this moment

 

[DFC]

You guys are both forgetting one real thing here - they may have a framework of a deal already done and in place. The problem is this, if you play your hand now and announce his signing, you're submitting that contract to the central registry and once thats done, you're either very close or over the cap. Now you're bargaining from a place of weakness, you can't undo the Stamkos contract. You're not going to get any help at this point (not that you necessarily were in the first place), but it guarantees your "weakness" I guess is the best way to explain it. Then you either have to take a deal from someone to get compliant or take it on the chin.

The other argument though we've rehashed a bunch of times around here, while I don't expect 91 to magically come cheap like some believe (5m for Stamkos is very, very wishful but would be amazing) i'll respond to you with a question. Lets say Stamkos does walk, you're 8.5m cap freed now - what do you think you'll get out there in free agency that will be comparable in production and cost?

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

It doesn't look super promising, that list has a lot of over the hill types that took at least 5m, and the rest look like a bunch of big money underachievers. I still think letting Stamkos walk is not only the wrong choice, but will drastically change the look of this team in different facets, especially with the man advantage, and not in a good way.

I still think the best path forward is to move Sergachev for valuable assets and use the remaining space to give Stamkos a deal that is still team friendly, but not insulting (7.5 or 8?).

The return on a Sergachev trade is likely better than we can hope to land in free agency, AND lets us keep Stamkos.

In your specific scenario, I think you use the money to try to shore up the right side a bit and land a scoring winger who is known for 5v5 contributions. Let the PP get weaker without Stamkos, but make sure we are better 5v5.

Maybe a 5.5 or 6m winger, and then use the change for a lower tier RHD who just does no harm.

But I still think the better path is keeping Stamkos for a couple more years. I would rather make a major move to keep him (sergachev) than to try shaving away what little depth we have. I'm not opposed to overhauling the bottom six, but I think you do that WHILE keeping Stamkos, rather than TO keep Stamkos, which is why i would rather trade from what's currently our strongest position: LD

 

[Point21]

 

[Byrddog]

i just don't see any reason stamkos wouldn't take 4-5 mill for 8 years. he'll get the same money he would otherwise and the team can stay competitive for the rest of his career. unless he for some reason needs the money in his pocket right this moment

If he was willing to take sub the deal would be done. Even at 6 not much has to move to fit him in. The issue then would be the roster still has holes. I don’t expect Stammer to make a decision before becoming a F/A. I am also not sure what kinds $$$$ are out there for him . Sure he is an aging superstar but as much as many try to downplay his value he still has game left. I think everyone’s heartburn is with any term.

Winding down a closing window with a good core is tough even when the GM makes no mistakes . Right now we’re facing another summer of subtracting goals. I Amy be wrong but fringing Mac back in will stabilize the back end and have a positive impact on Vasy.

 

[Todd1a]

Oh boy that’s not good looking just like the killorn situation from last year

 

[Point21]

Oh boy that’s not good looking just like the killorn situation from last year

If we dont make any moves at the draft i think we can kiss him goodbye

 

[DaBolts]

I'm throwing this out there and I realize this won't be popular, but if we can't sign Stammer, work a trade for 2 more years of Yanni?

Yes? No?

 

[Felonious Python]

I'm throwing this out there and I realize this won't be popular, but if we can't sign Stammer, work a trade for 2 more years of Yanni?

Yes? No?

With what?

 

[Todd1a]

If we dont make any moves at the draft i think we can kiss him goodbye

Why lol in May JBB said he has the cap space to sign stamkos lol

 

[Sky04]

With what?

Cirelli and Sergachev, easily gets us a package of Gourde 50%, Larsson, McCann + whatever else there's your 2C, 3C, top pairing RHD and capspace. Fills 3 needs on excellent contracts, frees up cap space and adds back to the cupboards.

 

[Point21]

Why lol in May JBB said he has the cap space to sign stamkos lol

so hes signing for less than 5m?

 

[Maelmoor]

I wonder how Stamkos is reasoning, how much staying is worth (given the family is rooted etc), compared to getting better paid (and how much)? Doesn't sound like he will sign with us, which doesn't come us a huge surprise, but let's see.

 

[Sky04]

I wonder how Stamkos is reasoning, how much staying is worth (given the family is rooted etc), compared to getting better paid (and how much)? Doesn't sound like he will sign with us, which doesn't come us a huge surprise, but let's see.

Well without making any moves right now everything points to typical insulting JBB lowball offer..... probably something around the 4M range given we only have about 5M in capspace at the moment and still need to fill out the roster. So yeah I can see why he's hesitant.

Hey come take 4M for 8 years.... or make that same amount in half the time or less without having to play till 42.....

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

I think everyone should be prepared for him leaving, the tea leaves aren’t looking great right now.

Things should start to pick up now. If we have to make a trade to clear room, the draft is the best opportunity.

 

[Todd1a]

so hes signing for less than 5m?

lol that’s what our crazy gm said a month ago lol that we had the cap room

 

[Point21]

lol that’s what our crazy gm said a month ago lol that we had the cap room

Thats why i dont listen to anything he says

 

[Rschmitz]

We aren't re-signing him