I think the opportunity cost is not having space to bring on a player that fills one of our major holes. I don’t think we ever could have afforded to take on a big cap hit, overpriced player with term that would have netted significant assets if we are planning to avoid a rebuild. maybe we could use some space at the next deadline to broker cap relief, but that’s not a big return (3rd to 5th round pick this deadline).
I do like Kaps game so far, but wish his cap was lower.
One of our major holes is short-term skill/production from the middle 6. It's a secondary hole to the defense, but if we're talking about competing in 2023/24 (which I'm not sure we should be), then it is a hole that needed addressing. Kap certainly isn't a lock to fill that hole, but I'm not sure that $3.2M buys you a safe-bet solution from outside the organization unless you give up a couple decent assets in a trade or give up more term than you'd like.
If you bring in a D upgrade, then you have to move 1 of the 5 well paid D out of the organization just to give one of Tucker, Rosen, Bortz, Perunovich, or other current AHL guy a spot in the every day 6 man D group. If you want 2 in the everyday lineup, then you would need to move two of the 5 well paid D. We're clearly trying to move one of the $6.5M guys, but even if we can't/don't do that, moving the two cheapest of the 5 (Leddy and Scandy) would open up $7.275M in cap space.
This group would cost $33k less than what we are currently paying our 8 man D group:
$6.5M LD-Parayko
Krug-Faulk
Rosen, Bortz, Tucker ($775k), and Perunovich ($775k) rotating as the bottom pair and 2 healthy scratches
This would cost $208k less than the current 8 man D group:
$6.5M LD-Parayko
Leddy-Faulk
Scandella-Tucker ($775k)
Rosen, Perunovich ($775k)
This would cost $1.75M less than the current D group:
$8M LD-Parayko
Leddy-Faulk
Rosen-Bortz
Tucker ($775k), Perunovich ($775k)
We're going to have to subtract 1 or 2 pieces of the current top 5 D in order to upgrade the D no matter what. Doing so means that even bringing in a high paid guy as the upgrade is going to be roughly a dollar for dollar replacement from the money we already have tied up in the blueline. The $9.5M in space can all be used to fill the backup goalie spot (Hofer at $775k) and the remaining 4-5 forward spots (2-3 of which are the 12, 13th, and potentially 14th forwards).
Kap bringing that space from $12.7M to $9.5M (while also tangibly filling a middle 6 need in some capacity) isn't a ton of wasted cap IMO. And it doesn't have any opportunity cost for 2024/25 since it is off the books next summer. I'm still not wild about the move, but I wouldn't have been wild about blowing $7-8M on a stud forward and then trying to fill the 3rd line with $1M vets and ELCs either. Not being able to do that isn't a negative for me.
He's overpaid for what he's been the last couple years, but I wouldn't say it is by a wide margin. He's played at a 35 point pace over the past 2 years while averaging 13:42 a night and getting 2nd unit PP usage on a team with a wide TOI gap between the 1st and 2nd PP units. you're not getting a guy like that for under $2M in the UFA market and teams aren't giving up a guy like that making under $2M in a trade without being paid a decent asset or two. He's got 45+ point upside that would make him a bargain at the $3.2M cap hit, but even if we don't see that upside I'd say the 'dead cap' is no more than $1M. I don't see a huge opportunity cost in what else we could have brought in with that money unless we were giving up futures or giving up term that could handcuff us beyond next season.
I get what you are saying completely, but I'm still coming around to the idea that the opportunity cost of this gamble wasn't as painful as I initially felt.