Speculation: Implications of Canada joining the EU

[Jumptheshark]

The UK was doing much better in the EU, that's rarely even debated these days. There was no problem making it work in the EU. Their economy has flatlined since they've tried to go alone.

That is an understatement

 

[daver]

On the plus side for the EU, the term "soft euro" would go by the wayside.

 

[Voight]

I think EU is a logical step Canada should seriously consider. Canada is not really able to handle an aggressive country like the USA if they decide to damage us, especially with our currency.

it's in USA's best interest that we don't join, but it's starting to feel like we might need to do something drastic because we're gonna be in trouble in the long run if this continues.

I think most Canadians would probably agree that we're not in a good position right now and there's no easy way out of this to keep our autonomy. If we need to adopt the Euro, let's do it.

The EU has more negatives than positives IMO, Canada would be making a mistake.

But anyways, I dont wanna be the one to nuke this thread.

 

[Yukon Joe]

In correct. UK kept our pound the entire time we were in the EU

Yes - because the UK was a member of the EU when the Euro was being negotiated and was able to negotiate itself a carve-out. Same as it did on a lot of agricultural policy.

Canada, if it tried to enter the EU, would not be coming from a position of strength, and would have to accept the entire EU system, including the Euro.

 

[No Fun Shogun]

Not to get on-topic, but has anyone remotely of note associated with either Canada or the European Union remotely suggested that Canada joining the EU is an actual possibility, or is this just empty wishful thinking? Seems like little more than an opinion piece conjecture.

 

[Golden_Jet]

Not to get on-topic, but has anyone remotely of note associated with either Canada or the European Union remotely suggested that Canada joining the EU is an actual possibility, or is this just empty wishful thinking? Seems like little more than an opinion piece conjecture.

Agree it’s an opinion piece, and with no substance.

Especially when it starts out,
Europe needs space and resources and Canada needs people. Let’s deal.

​

 

[MeHateHe]

Not to get on-topic, but has anyone remotely of note associated with either Canada or the European Union remotely suggested that Canada joining the EU is an actual possibility, or is this just empty wishful thinking? Seems like little more than an opinion piece conjecture.

A former German finance minister said somewhere that that the fact that Canada isn't in Europe isn't an impediment to joining the EU.

Nach Drohungen von Trump - Früherer Bundesaußenminister Gabriel schlägt EU-Mitgliedschaft Kanadas vor

Der frühere Bundesaußenminister Gabriel hat vorgeschlagen, Kanada in die EU aufzunehmen.

www-deutschlandfunk-de.translate.goog

Here's a good explainer.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/canada-european-union-1.7446400

The EU is essentially a political body, not really a geographic one. Some folks on Bluesky were musing that because Canada and Denmark share a border on Hans Island so we are already a part of Europe.

What's more likely - and you're seeing politicians say this - is that there will be closer ties with Europe and increased trade relationships.

 

[Yukon Joe]

A former German finance minister said somewhere that that the fact that Canada isn't in Europe isn't an impediment to joining the EU.

The EU is essentially a political body, not really a geographic one. Some folks on Bluesky were musing that because Canada and Denmark share a border on Hans Island so we are already a part of Europe.

What's more likely - and you're seeing politicians say this - is that there will be closer ties with Europe and increased trade relationships.

So here's the thing: the EU is fundamentally a political body, true. There's no "law of the universe" that prevents Canada from joining the EU.

But other countries have tried to join the EU and were rejected because they weren't in Europe. Morocco was rejected outright, and Turkey (which has part of it's territory in Europe, but is mostly outside) was allowed to apply but has been in limbo ever since.

If the EU admits Canada, but rejects Morocco, it frankly makes it seem like a racist/or anti-Muslim, decision, which I don't think the EU wants to do.

There's also the question of time. AS mentioned Turkey has been a potential member for decades. Any country that was admitted took years and years. Heck - Canada signed the Canada-EU Free Trade deal in 2014 - it is STILL not fully in force yet.

Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

So even if Canada and EU decided to join, and fast-track admission, the timeline would not help us out of the current tariff mess.

 

[Voight]

A former German finance minister said somewhere that that the fact that Canada isn't in Europe isn't an impediment to joining the EU.

Nach Drohungen von Trump - Früherer Bundesaußenminister Gabriel schlägt EU-Mitgliedschaft Kanadas vor

Der frühere Bundesaußenminister Gabriel hat vorgeschlagen, Kanada in die EU aufzunehmen.

www-deutschlandfunk-de.translate.goog

Here's a good explainer.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/canada-european-union-1.7446400

The EU is essentially a political body, not really a geographic one. Some folks on Bluesky were musing that because Canada and Denmark share a border on Hans Island so we are already a part of Europe.

What's more likely - and you're seeing politicians say this - is that there will be closer ties with Europe and increased trade relationships.

The EU would have to make amendments to their laws to include a non European country, and that would require all 27 members to say yes. As Yukon Joe said, the optics wouldn't be great either.

Honestly, Canada would not benefit from joining the EU. It's not worth the loss of sovereignty especially with all the changes that would come with.

 

[MeHateHe]

But other countries have tried to join the EU and were rejected because they weren't in Europe. Morocco was rejected outright, and Turkey (which has part of it's territory in Europe, but is mostly outside) was allowed to apply but has been in limbo ever since.

If the EU admits Canada, but rejects Morocco, it frankly makes it seem like a racist/or anti-Muslim, decision, which I don't think the EU wants to do.

Sure sure. I am not arguing that the EU should admit Canada, nor that Canada should apply for membership. I am saying that it is not out of the realm of possibilities and that Canada's admission would have benefits to both sides. Do those benefits outweigh the risks? I ain't Solomon so let's just saw the baby in half.

Again, this thread was always just a fanciful notion.

 

[Yukon Joe]

Honestly, Canada would not benefit from joining the EU. It's not worth the loss of sovereignty especially with all the changes that would come with.

As with all things, there would be plusses and minuses.

Joining the EU means adopting the Euro, which would be a much more stable currency than our dollar (and not so susceptible to fluctuations in the price of oil). It would mean access to free movement - as Canadians you'd have the right to live and work in any EU nation,

We'd be subject to a lot of EU regulations. Supply side-management of dairy would be gone - but we'd get tariff-free imports of all kinds of European cheeses. We'd be subject to EU regulations on all kinds of things. Just off the top of my head - we'd have to get used to Euro-style fuel economy and car safety rules. Everyone driving a pick up truck (myself included) would have quite a shock.

You think Alberta complains about equalization now? Wait until Canada has to start contributing to Bulgaria's economy.

The nice thing in this moment - if we were in the EU, Trump would have to tariff all EU goods, and then the EU as a whole would retaliate on our behalf.

 

[Voight]

As with all things, there would be plusses and minuses.

Joining the EU means adopting the Euro, which would be a much more stable currency than our dollar (and not so susceptible to fluctuations in the price of oil). It would mean access to free movement - as Canadians you'd have the right to live and work in any EU nation,

We'd be subject to a lot of EU regulations. Supply side-management of dairy would be gone - but we'd get tariff-free imports of all kinds of European cheeses. We'd be subject to EU regulations on all kinds of things. Just off the top of my head - we'd have to get used to Euro-style fuel economy and car safety rules. Everyone driving a pick up truck (myself included) would have quite a shock.

You think Alberta complains about equalization now? Wait until Canada has to start contributing to Bulgaria's economy.

The nice thing in this moment - if we were in the EU, Trump would have to tariff all EU goods, and then the EU as a whole would retaliate on our behalf.

Agreed, I just see more minuses from something like this than pluses.

 

[Golden_Jet]

As with all things, there would be plusses and minuses.

Joining the EU means adopting the Euro, which would be a much more stable currency than our dollar (and not so susceptible to fluctuations in the price of oil). It would mean access to free movement - as Canadians you'd have the right to live and work in any EU nation,

We'd be subject to a lot of EU regulations. Supply side-management of dairy would be gone - but we'd get tariff-free imports of all kinds of European cheeses. We'd be subject to EU regulations on all kinds of things. Just off the top of my head - we'd have to get used to Euro-style fuel economy and car safety rules. Everyone driving a pick up truck (myself included) would have quite a shock.

You think Alberta complains about equalization now? Wait until Canada has to start contributing to Bulgaria's economy.

The nice thing in this moment - if we were in the EU, Trump would have to tariff all EU goods, and then the EU as a whole would retaliate on our behalf.

Trump has already said tariffs to EU is coming. He’s like Oprah, you get a tariff, you get a tariff, everyone gets a tariff.

 

[daver]

I came for a geopolitical discussion and a hockey game broke out.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

The climate change fanatics in the Eu will never allow us to use oil again. We'll be even poorer than we are now.

 

[Edenjung]

Canada, if it tried to enter the EU, would not be coming from a position of strength, and would have to accept the entire EU system, including the Euro.

No they don't.
Being an EU member does not mean that you have to have the Euro.
Sweden, Denmark, the czech republic, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania and Hungary are all in the EU but don't have the Euro. Denmark does not need to switch ever and as long as you don't fulfill all the convergence rules then you don't switch (Sweden). And you can decide when you want to start the process of implementing the Euro.
Same goes for oversea departments of france or the netherlands. The majority of those does not have the Euro.

And you also if you join the EU, you are not immediately part of Schengen. You have to be approved for that. For example Bulgaria and Rumania were allowed to join Schengen fully just this year. If you don't want to be a member you just have to convince one country of voting against it or not to fulfill the things neccessary to be part of it like Ireland and zypress do.

Furthermore, Canada could do what Norway, Island and Switzerland do and just become an associated country (EEA member). I think that would be way more beneficial and acceptable for Canada than membership. And if they want they could ask for membership. If not then not.
Personally, I think that the EU also would prefer such a thing to having Canada join. A member on the other side of the atlantic is not something that was ever anticipated and thus I doubt it could work out. So being a member of the EEA (European economic area) could work. Or they find another solution like they did with CETA or a bilateral cooperation agreement for certain political things. That way everybody is way more flexible. A political alliance of some sort.

@VictoriaJetsFan
Last time I checked, Norway was still one of the biggest producers of natural gas in the world. And the dutch too.
There is no mechanism in the EU that does what you imply. And there is also nobody that asks for one.

Maybe inform yourself and then comment. Otherwise you just embarrass yourself.

 

[Yukon Joe]

Furthermore, Canada could do what Norway, Island and Switzerland do and just become an associated country (EEA member). I think that would be way more beneficial and acceptable for Canada than membership. And if they want they could ask for membership. If not then not.
Personally, I think that the EU also would prefer such a thing to having Canada join. A member on the other side of the atlantic is not something that was ever anticipated and thus I doubt it could work out. So being a member of the EEA (European economic area) could work. Or they find another solution like they did with CETA or a bilateral cooperation agreement for certain political things. That way everybody is way more flexible. A political alliance of some sort.

In a lot of ways joining the EEA would be the worst of all possible options - which is why the UK didn't do it.

The primary difference of the EEA is you don't have to comply with the EU's Agricultural or Fishing policies. Otherwise you're part of the common market, and have to comply with all EU regulations - except as a non-EU member you don't have any say in what those are.

There's a reason only fairly small countries like Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein are part of the EEA (Switzerland is not, rather it's a member of the EFTA).

 

[DaaaaB's]

Not to get on-topic, but has anyone remotely of note associated with either Canada or the European Union remotely suggested that Canada joining the EU is an actual possibility, or is this just empty wishful thinking? Seems like little more than an opinion piece conjecture.

Maybe not yet but they will given how unstable the POTUS is. It'll never happen but it's not surprising to see it discussed.

 

[Devilmademedoit]

One of the more obtuse threads I have seen in awhile

 

[edog37]

OK, so I'm going to try and engage with this seriously - and with a focus on hockey on the remote chance this thread doesn't get nuked from orbit.

It *is* extremely unlikely to ever happen. Back in the day two non-European countries applied to join the EU - Morocco and Turkey. Morocco was turned down flat - Morocco is not in Europe. Part of Turkey *is* in Europe however, so they were granted "candidate" status in 1999. In the year 2025 Turkey is not remotely close to joining the EU.

I would speculate that the reason Morocco and Turkey have been turned down is more cultural/ethnic than they are geographic, and that the EU secretly would be more open to Canada joining as we are a majority white/christian nation that speaks existing European languages (even as England/UK has left) - but to accept Canada would mean there's no reason not to consider Morocco and Turkey.

So what effect would it have on hockey? Well first and most simply joining the EU would mean joining the Schengen customs union. Europeans would have the full right to live and work in any EU country - so that would apply to hockey players playing in Canada. So no worrying about work visas.

As I think about it - I think that would mean opening up the CHL completely to European players, but might then restrict the number of US players in the CHL. European hockey leagues have restrictions on the number of Canadians they can employ IIRC.

The entire NHL salary cap could potentially be put at risk. I've been told there's a reason no Eurpoean league has a salary cap, and it has to do with European anti-trust laws - but even as a Canadian lawyer this is well beyond my knowledge.

And yes Canada would have to join the Euro. That would be a mixed bag. The Canadian dollar is tightly tied to the price of oil, which in turn if moderately tied to the Canadian economy in general. The price of oil goes up, the economy goes up, the dollar goes up. That means we can more easily buy things from abroad.

The price of oil goes down, the economy goes down, the dollar goes down. That makes it more expensive to buy from abroad - but that in turn encourages buying Canadian goods. It also encourages foreign companies to invest in Canada, which should eventually help the Canadian economy grow.

So having the Euro risks times where the Canadian economy is down, yet we have a high currency since it's no longer tied to the dollar. That could make the good times even better (good economy / low currency), but the bad times even worse (bad economy / strong currency).

Joining the Euro would have countless other effects - on dairy, food labelling, fisheries, environmental regulations - but that's well beyond hockey itself.

The salary cap isn’t going anywhere. The NHL is headquartered in the US, & the vast majority of the teams are US-based. Not to mention the CBA already being in place.

Assuming this fantasy ever took place, the Canadian teams would have a tough choice. Either defy EU rules or lose hockey. The Canadian teams wouldn’t survive outside the NHL, but the NHL would survive without Canadian teams.