So the Canucks were a product of PDO all this time? Or are they still a legitimate contender?

[Regal]

That's kind of the point. This is a crazy regression from last year.

Oh for sure. Obviously .500 in regulation isn’t good enough and significantly worse than last year. I just think sometimes there can be too much focus on OT record when a lot of it is noise. If they were 10-4 in OT instead there probably wouldn’t be a thread like this, but they’d be just as mediocre a team

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

Oh yeah, we’re all really traumatized from last years regular season match up with the Canucks…

I mean, there were dudes who were rageposting every game the Canucks had on the Oilers board and seem incapable of giving any kind of credit to the Canucks. If that doesn't scream salty I dunno what is.

Also, the traumatized was re: goaltending, not playing the Canucks. Reading comprehension isn't a strong suit I'm seeing. For example:

Lol what is this?

Like seriously? The Oilers just beat the Canucks in a second-round playoff series!

That's sort of my point, Einstein. You guys won the playoff series but are still moaning about the Canucks. I only hopped back into this thread cos an Oilers fan responded to a post I made months ago yesterday.

Wonder what happened yesterday to cause that.

You guys don’t know when to STFU, eh?

I mean when you completely miss the point of what is being said I can see how you could construe it that way.

 

[Brookbank]

Pretty clear at this point that all the PDO "jokes" weren't jokes at all.

Pretty clear that you don't even know what PDO is or what the Canucks were scoring the season before last year. Here it is he season before lasts goal totals : Pettersson (37 goals), Kuzmenko (37 goals ), Horvat (31goals), Miller (30 goals)

The Oilers had only 3 30 goal scorers in 2023

So was 2023 just PDO too or have the Canucks core never really had a problem scoring goals ? Why didn't you cry about PDO in 2023 ?

 

[Three On Zero]

Pretty clear that you don't even know what PDO is or what the Canucks were scoring the season before last year. Here it is he season before lasts goal totals : Pettersson (37 goals), Kuzmenko (37 goals ), Horvat (31goals), Miller (30 goals)

The Oilers had only 3 30 goal scorers in 2023

So was 2023 just PDO too or have the Canucks core never really had a problem scoring goals ? Why didn't you cry about PDO in 2023 ?

Top PDO %s since 2016. The PDO narrative is fun but Vancouver didn't do anything that doesn't happen yearly. Washington and Winnipeg are both on pace to eclipse what Vancouver had for PDO.

Boston with the historic regular season run and then losing in the first round the Florida is a better example of a team riding high PDO. Vancouver at least was within a goal for the Conference Final

2016 - Washington 103%, Minnesota 102.3%
2017 - Nashville 102.5%, Nashville 102.3%
2018 - Tampa 104%, Islander 102.3%
2019 - Boston 102.6%, Tampa 102.6%
2020 - Pittsburgh 102.6%, Vegas 102.6%
2021 - Rangers 102.5%, Tampa 102.5%, Minnesota 102.5%
2022 - Boston 104.2%, Dallas 102.4%
2023 - Vancouver 102.9%, Winnipeg 102.7%, Boston 102.6%
2024 - Washington 104.5%, Winnipeg 104.6%

 

[TheSuperElite]

Pretty clear that you don't even know what PDO is or what the Canucks were scoring the season before last year. Here it is he season before lasts goal totals : Pettersson (37 goals), Kuzmenko (37 goals ), Horvat (31goals), Miller (30 goals)

The Oilers had only 3 30 goal scorers in 2023

So was 2023 just PDO too or have the Canucks core never really had a problem scoring goals ? Why didn't you cry about PDO in 2023 ?

Pretty clear to me that 2023 was a fluke season.

 

[Bank Shot]

Remember that offseason thread about the importance of scoring even strength goals and how Hoglander had as many ES goals last year as Draisaitl?

How is that aging?

Shooting percentage regression is the easiest thing in the world to predict to come back down to earth. Home town fans somehow continue to get fooled by it every season.

 

[sr edler]

Watching post-game interviews with their biggest stars, all of them come across way too self-serious and up-tight. They probably need a good old jokester in that locker-room, to ease some of the built up tension. If you hate a co-worker (or several of them), it helps to laugh at the situation once in a while. Their captain is so soft-spoken, it sounds like he's trying to not wake up newborn kittens. It also probably doesn't help that their GM looks like a constipated accountant.

 

[Cup or Bust]

The Canucks are a good team but I don't think they are a Cup contender. I think last season kind of overhyped their team a bit, but they are still a good team.

 

[JianYang]

They did a good job keeping their head above water for a while. That was the objective as they had key injuries right from the start of the season, but those key injuries never went away.

Now Hughes is playing with some spider man looking contraption on his hand. Hronek just came back and needs to find his game. We are more than halfway through and demko is still struggling to find his way back.

Then there's the whole Miller pettersson thing.

Lots of adversity this year as opposed to last year but if the team gets in form at the right time .... I wouldn't really want to face them in the first round.

 

[Fishy McScales]

Oh boy, that's rich...the guy who almost single-handedly cost the Oilers two games in that series.

I think that's exactly what he meant. I.e. that if not for Skinner the Oilers might have swept the series.

 

[geebster]

Remember that offseason thread about the importance of scoring even strength goals and how Hoglander had as many ES goals last year as Draisaitl?

How is that aging?

Shooting percentage regression is the easiest thing in the world to predict to come back down to earth. Home town fans somehow continue to get fooled by it every season.

Actually... the biggest drop off in their PDO from last year is save percentage. Their shooting percentage is 7th in the league but their save percent is 25th right now.

But who cares about being right when being wrong fits the narrative, eh?

 

[MessierThanThou]

I think that's exactly what he meant. I.e. that if not for Skinner the Oilers might have swept the series.

You would think, but I've read his other posts...

 

[Three On Zero]

The Canucks are a good team but I don't think they are at the Cup contender. I think last season kind of overhyped their team a bit, but they are still a good team.

At best a middling playoff team similar to last season, they were never a real “contender”. They haven’t strung enough success together to be considering cup contenders in my opinion.

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

The Canucks are a good team but I don't think they are a Cup contender. I think last season kind of overhyped their team a bit, but they are still a good team.

Bantz aside for a moment, yeah, that's essentially what the Canucks are. They aren't this garbage tier team, but they also aren't a top echelon club.

Yeah, there was going to be some regression from last season, but the team cratering this year is more to do with injuries (which, IIRC, is the reason why the Oilers didn't beat the Panthers) and whatever locker room nonsense is going on with Miller/EP.

The drop off has more to do with the team not being healthy and less to do with 'sustainability.'

If we wanna talk about 'sustainable', the Oilers PK percentage is like right there.

 

[Bank Shot]

Actually... the biggest drop off in their PDO from last year is save percentage. Their shooting percentage is 7th in the league but their save percent is 25th right now.

But who cares about being right when being wrong fits the narrative, eh?

They aren't 1st in the league by a percent like last year.


Guys like Hoglander, Joshua, Miller had huge corrections in goals scored as predicted.

The shooting percentage will likely continue to drop as the season goes on as well.

The math was still right. Now you are complaining about the degree to which it was right.

 

[1989]

Maybe it should be its own topic but I'm too lazy...

How do people feel about the Canucks' wildcard chances relative to the Flames? I don't think either are likely to leapfrog Colorado, and the Blues are tied with 3 more games played as of right now.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

They got all the breaks last year and were the healthiest team in the NHL.

 

[eviohh26]

Everything went right last year.
Everything is going wrong this year.
We are somewhere in between .

 

[geebster]

They aren't 1st in the league by a percent like last year.


Guys like Hoglander, Joshua, Miller had huge corrections in goals scored as predicted.

The shooting percentage will likely continue to drop as the season goes on as well.

The math was still right. Now you are complaining about the degree to which it was right.

What are you talking about? The drop off in PDO is almost entirely save percentage. Shooting percent regression has not happened to any significant degree, Canucks are still around top 5 in the league and have been all season (dropping to 6th only recently). But went from being 7th to 25th in save percentage. Their Vezina candidate last year has an .871 save percentage right now.

With last years save percentage they would be 2nd in the league in PDO right now ahead of Winnipeg with their current shooting percentage.

The Canucks still have a significantly better shooting percentage than the Oilers do. You said they led the league in shooting percentage by a full percent... not true, they led by less than half a percent (0.43%). The save percent dropoff is more than double their shooting percentage drop and they still would be a top PDO in the league WITH that shooting percent drop as I said above. So wheres this giant regression then outside of your imagination? Specific players had regression but the team barely did overall. The Canucks still have 7 players shooting above 15%, 2 above 20% right now (including Joshua). Miller has a higher shooting percent this year than the Canucks averaged last year, so he isnt exactly bringing them down towards the NHL mean right now either.

As I said you care more about saying I told you so than about honestly looking at the thing you are discussing. You got your feelings hurt because of some Hoglander comment and have been waiting to be proven right on the shooting percentage, but you jumped the gun. If their shooting percentage actually regresses anywhere near the middle of the league (i.e. not a top team in the league even when they struggle), then come back and get your revenge on that Hoglander post that hurt you so much.

 

[BertMcDrai]

Seems like last years Canucks are this year's Capitals.

 

[RandV]

At best a middling playoff team similar to last season, they were never a real “contender”. They haven’t strung enough success together to be considering cup contenders in my opinion.

Yes the potential is there but they need to be able to string everything together at the same time - Petterson, Miller, Hughes, Demko, all independently playing at their highest level.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

They aren't 1st in the league by a percent like last year.


Guys like Hoglander, Joshua, Miller had huge corrections in goals scored as predicted.

The shooting percentage will likely continue to drop as the season goes on as well.

The math was still right. Now you are complaining about the degree to which it was right.

Good one. Hoglander is shooting 6.6% this year. Which almost as unsustainably low as 20% was high. Which means obviously he's going to progress to the mean at some point. Right?

EDIT: Also, nice choice including a guy who missed the start of the season recovering from testicular cancer. Well played....

 

[geebster]

Yes the potential is there but they need to be able to string everything together at the same time - Petterson, Miller, Hughes, Demko, all independently playing at their highest level.

Or just play as they are and have Demko be Demko. The gap in goaltending from last year is huge. People forget that the flip side to them having a high shooting percentage (true this and last year) was that they just don't generate a lot of shots and spend most games giving up far more than they produce. Tons of games needed Demko or Silovs to make a difference last year. This year Demko has had trouble coming back from his injury. If he finds his game the Canucks are actually fine. Demko finding his game and trading for a second pair defenseman and they are OK. But so far there's no indication that's happening soon, and they might just run out of time to turn it around.

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

Oh for sure. Obviously .500 in regulation isn’t good enough and significantly worse than last year. I just think sometimes there can be too much focus on OT record when a lot of it is noise. If they were 10-4 in OT instead there probably wouldn’t be a thread like this, but they’d be just as mediocre a team

The canucks are 22nd in the league in regulation wins..... twist it however you want, they are a below average team

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

Top PDO %s since 2016. The PDO narrative is fun but Vancouver didn't do anything that doesn't happen yearly. Washington and Winnipeg are both on pace to eclipse what Vancouver had for PDO.

Boston with the historic regular season run and then losing in the first round the Florida is a better example of a team riding high PDO. Vancouver at least was within a goal for the Conference Final

2016 - Washington 103%, Minnesota 102.3%
2017 - Nashville 102.5%, Nashville 102.3%
2018 - Tampa 104%, Islander 102.3%
2019 - Boston 102.6%, Tampa 102.6%
2020 - Pittsburgh 102.6%, Vegas 102.6%
2021 - Rangers 102.5%, Tampa 102.5%, Minnesota 102.5%
2022 - Boston 104.2%, Dallas 102.4%
2023 - Vancouver 102.9%, Winnipeg 102.7%, Boston 102.6%
2024 - Washington 104.5%, Winnipeg 104.6%

On this day last year cancuks had a 1.05% pdo. Huh Wonder if that's why people talked about it more mid year than end year

Actually... the biggest drop off in their PDO from last year is save percentage. Their shooting percentage is 7th in the league but their save percent is 25th right now.

But who cares about being right when being wrong fits the narrative, eh?

Their 5on5 shooting % is down a full point from 10.6 to 9.57