So the Canucks were a product of PDO all this time? Or are they still a legitimate contender?

[winnipegger]

10 OT losses for the Canucks. Their win/loss record notwithstanding loser points is 19 - 25. They were a scrappy team last year but they don't have the same fight. I would try to figure out what the hell is going on with Miller before selling the team away. Need to figure out if he's like this now or if it's a down year.

 

[Regal]

Just want to chime in - Hronek wasn’t even in the same zip code for Detroit. You guys had a completely different guy in Vancouver last year lol

Really? Everything I saw and read before the trade was that he was playing great for the first half of the year then slowed down in the last 20 games before the trade.

10 OT losses for the Canucks. Their win/loss record notwithstanding loser points is 19 - 25. They were a scrappy team last year but they don't have the same fight. I would try to figure out what the hell is going on with Miller before selling the team away. Need to figure out if he's like this now or if it's a down year.

The “loser point” criticism has always made no sense. A 4-10 record in OT, which is mostly luck, suggests they’ve been unlucky not that they’re worse than their point totals. They’re .500 in regulation.

 

[x Tame Impala]

Good teams have good players playing at a level that they can sustain

You know Connor McDavid will score 120+ points for Edmonton, you know the same for Colorado with Mackinnon. You know the Leafs will have 4 PPG forwards. It may vary slightly from year to year, but that production can be counted on to create consistently competitive teams

You can't count on half your forward group having career seasons every year like with what happened to Vancouver last season

Ok but they rode that all the way into the second round of the playoffs and they weren’t even getting production from one of their top forwards.

It was clear from watching them they were a good team. You people think a team with a high PDO is some 2014 Avalanche, fluke of a team. It’s just not true. Vancouver was a good team last year. I don’t know what’s going on with them this season but the thread bump is disingenuous and you advanced stats bro’s are just filating yourselves over nothing.

 

[FiveFourteenSixOne]

Ok but they rode that all the way into the second round of the playoffs and they weren’t even getting production from one of their top forwards.

It was clear from watching them they were a good team. You people think a team with a high PDO is some 2014 Avalanche, fluke of a team. It’s just not true. Vancouver was a good team last year. I don’t know what’s going on with them this season but the thread bump is disingenuous and you advanced stats bro’s are just filating yourselves over nothing.

No...they weren't.

They'd spend a lot of time defending, go down the ice and score a quick goal. Rinse and repeat.

They got a ton of saves, and scored on a lot of mediocre scoring chances. This kind of shit isn't repeatable in the long term. They managed to make it last for 85% of the season.

When 3/4 of your forwards have a career high shooting %, it shouldn't surprise you to see the goal scoring dry up when they go back to scoring at their career average rate.

 

[x Tame Impala]

The Oilers arguably win the Florida series if they had Klefbom from 2018 before injury and Skinner not giving up a few softies but so what? They didn’t.

Such a dumb hypothesis. Especially when we see what Demko currently is and when Silovs kept them in the series.

Demko was looking great last year and that’s absolutely relevant to the series outcome. Your Klefbom example is dumb. I’m not saying Vancouver should have won or anything. Just that they were not some flukey team that didn’t belong. They had a good and young group of players

 

[PuckG]

Demko was looking great last year and that’s absolutely relevant to the series outcome. Your Klefbom example is dumb. I’m not saying Vancouver should have won or anything. Just that they were not some flukey team that didn’t belong. They had a good and young group of players

A healthy McDavid, Draisaitl and Kane are all relevant to the series outcome too. It applies both ways - but all the hypotheticals are mute anyways.

 

[x Tame Impala]

A healthy McDavid, Draisaitl and Kane are all relevant to the series outcome too. It applies both ways - but all the hypotheticals are mute anyways.

Of course, I’m merely trying to say that Vancouver almost made it to the WCF. That should prove more than anything they were a good team. It certainly overrides whatever ridiculous standard being applied by advanced stats darlings.

I don’t even like the Canucks. I’m a Hawks fan who has hated them for 15 years now. PDO is a stupid gauge and I think it just allows people who don’t watch the games to feel like they know what they’re talking about.

 

[RandV]

Shooting% last season:
Dakota Joshua - 21.4% (Career average of 17%)
Nils Hoglander - 20.0% (career average of 12%)
Brock Boeser - 19.6% (career average of 14%)
JT Miller - 19.1% (career average of 15%)
Sam Lafferty - 16.7% (Career average of 10%)

That's 5/12 regular forwards who shot insanely above their usual shooting%. Regression was always going to hit them

Shooting % this season:

Brock Boeser: 22.1%
Dakota Joshua: 20%
Jake Debrusk: 18.9%
Aatu Raty: 16.7%
Pius Suter: 15.9%
Kiefer Sherwood: 15.7%

Canucks went from 12.0% shooting last year tied for 1st with Tampa to this season currently at 11.3% and 7th best in the league. Joshua and Raty really should count here, but you included Sam Lafferty.

The PDO stuff remains nonsensical. Vancouver was a good team last season but probably better than they finished because through the regular season practically everyone stayed healthy. This season has been more of a struggle as the team was hit with significant injuries right out of the gate. This is more or less the same thing that happened to New Jersey.

Even still with all these struggles 44 games in and they've only just fallen out of a playoff spot by 1 point. Regardless of team my own general rule of thumb is not to project teams/players at the height of a hot/cold stretch. Teams are rarely consistent through an 82 game regular season, most are going to hit these highs and lows. If the Canucks were actually as bad as they presently seem they'd be fighting it out with Nashville and San Jose for draft position, not Calgary and St. Louis for a playoff spot.

 

[winnipegger]

Really? Everything I saw and read before the trade was that he was playing great for the first half of the year then slowed down in the last 20 games before the trade.



The “loser point” criticism has always made no sense. A 4-10 record in OT, which is mostly luck, suggests they’ve been unlucky not that they’re worse than their point totals. They’re .500 in regulation.

That's kind of the point. This is a crazy regression from last year.

 

[Connor McConnor]

The Canucks arguably make it to the WCF last year if they had their starting goaltender against Edmonton and that was with EP40 being a Swedish soggy diaper for 4 months and in the playoffs. They're a dramatic tire fire right now but you stat geeks acting like you've got this insight is completely unwarranted.

Good teams have lots of good players playing well. It's not some anomaly.

The Canucks got absolutely dominated the entire series. If we want to talk about what ifs, how about skinner doesn’t let the Canucks win a single game in the series?

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

The journey of a PDO jockey team that the fans insist aren’t PDO jockeys:

1 - holy shit were the best team in the NHL!! Contenders!!!! Deepest team in the league look at how everyone is scoring!

2 - let’s load up at the deadline, we’re contenders for sure!

3 - lose no later than the second round of the playoffs

4 - awards! Look at the awards! Jack Adams to our coach, one of the best in the league!

4 - no regression here, our players are uniquely better than the other PDO jockey teams! And our coaching is so good!

5 - look at all the moves we made in the off season! They’ll surely all turn up roses, because everything works out here!

6 - ugh slow start!

7 - what the f*** why aren’t all the players that shot the lights out last year scoring at an insane clip again!? Why can’t our goalie make a save!

8 - it’s all player X’s fault!

9 - a losing streak? WHAT THE f***! We might miss the playoffs!

10 - it must be the coach! Fire the coach! He forgot all the things he did to make magic last year and now he’s stupid!

Clockwork.

Huh. No mention of injuries.

C-

 

[Raistlin]

You guys saw what Silovs is right? That team actually managed to win 3 games with him in net, letting in long range slappers left and right.

 

[Three On Zero]

Huh. No mention of injuries.

C-

Last season a near entirely healthy roster for 82 games.

This season, 45 games in and they haven’t once iced the entire healthy roster.

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

They'd spend a lot of time defending, go down the ice and score a quick goal. Rinse and repeat.

Sometimes they'd do it 10x in a single game.

They got a ton of saves, and scored on a lot of mediocre scoring chances. This kind of shit isn't repeatable in the long term. They managed to make it last for 85% of the season.

I know Oilers fans have been traumatized by years of bad goaltending but holy shit.

When 3/4 of your forwards have a career high shooting %, it shouldn't surprise you to see the goal scoring dry up when they go back to scoring at their career average rate.

Sorry, which players are we talking about?

The issues with the Canucks this season has been injuries and top players not performing. Since injuries were a valid excuse as to why the Oilers couldn't beat Florida, it's applicable here, too.

The Canucks got absolutely dominated the entire series.

6 out of 7 games were 1 goal affairs while the best offensive players in the league were squaring off against the Canucks third tier goalie.

Over a season later and Oilers brains are still broken over that drubbing in last year's regular season.

 

[AwesomeInTheory]

Last season a near entirely healthy roster for 82 games.

This season, 45 games in and they haven’t once iced the entire healthy roster.

No, no, it's because Sam Lafferty isn't scoring a ton of goals this season.

What do you mean, he's not even in the same Conference anymore?

 

[Three On Zero]

No, no, it's because Sam Lafferty isn't scoring a ton of goals this season.

What do you mean, he's not even in the same Conference anymore?

Next season. This is one of his single digit years.

 

[TheSuperElite]

Pretty clear at this point that all the PDO "jokes" weren't jokes at all.

 

[LickTheEnvelope]

The only real hole on the Canucks roster, aside from their injury problems, is 2nd pair RHD. If they can get healthy (Miller, Demko, Hronek), Pettersen continues to look like his old self and they can address that Defensive hole, they’re a contender.

Lots of Ifs but certainly not outside the realm of possibility

No the whole defensive unit has basically been trash outside of Hughes and Hronek.

Miller has been on and off awful, as has Petterrson.

Boeser, Hoglander and Debrusk have totally vanished.

The saving graces for this season have been Lankinen and Sherwood.

Sounds like it has been internal problems and injuries. No one really knows but it has been ugly to watch.

 

[dirtydanglez]

locker room is in turmoil, quinn can't settle the beef. on ice results are all over the place.