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So the Canucks were a product of PDO all this time? Or are they still a legitimate contender?

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Brookbank said:
The claim to fame from the PDO bros like yourself was that there would be an inevitable collapse last year as the PDO leveled off. Which it did. But there was no collapse.

Now you limp wristing the PDO card again after you not only waited out all of last season but half of this season also ?
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I don't know what you read, but we've seen it many times that a team might have an elevated PDO one season and then not the next. It doesn't necessarily regress to the mean in season and underlying expected goals outcomes can also change.
 
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Brookbank said:
Except that more Canucks players had career years the year before. Horvat , Kuzmenko, Miller and Petterson.

There was only 3 teams with 4 players in the top 50 in points that season. Toronto Edmonton and Vancouver. And this was the year before the alleged PDO year
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Miller, Hughes, Boeser, Hronek, Hoglander, Joshua, Demko all had career years. That’s a lot of important players.
 
Not sure why this topic is so controversial. There is no team that consistently massively outperform all other teams' sh% numbers 5v5 year after year, so a team's sh% is largely down to chance over a season long sample.

If you're not rolling out a consistently elite goalie, which Demko hasn't been even while not injured, your save percentage is probably also not going to be super high.

That's all that PDO is.
 
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majormajor said:
I don't know what you read, but we've seen it many times that a team might have an elevated PDO one season and then not the next. It doesn't necessarily regress to the mean in season and underlying expected goals outcomes can also change.
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You didn't address my point at all

The Vancouver Canucks could always score goals.

The had three 30 goal scorers 3 seasons ago , four 30 goal scorers 2 seasons ago and three 30 goal scorers last year.

So this idea that the Canucks over achieved last year because they scorered a bunch of goals is nonsense.
 
Brookbank said:
You didn't address my point at all

The Vancouver Canucks could always score goals.

The had three 30 goal scorers 3 seasons ago , four 30 goal scorers 2 seasons ago and three 30 goal scorers last year.

So this idea that the Canucks over achieved last year because they scorered a bunch of goals is nonsense.
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Then why aren't they?
 
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Romang67 said:
Not sure why this topic is so controversial. There is no team that consistently massively outperform all other teams' sh% numbers 5v5 year after year, so a team's sh% is largely down to chance over a season long sample.

If you're not rolling out a consistently elite goalie, which Demko hasn't been even while not injured, your save percentage is probably also not going to be super high.

That's all that PDO is.
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It’s because it flies in the face of the narrative certain fans (and media) were trying to build about Vancouver achieving a “new normal” of elite play under Tocchet, Demko, and Hughes. It turns out it was just Hughes and a historically high shooting percentage, which is now stoking the revisionism that’s rampant in this thread.
 
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VeteranPresence said:
It’s because it flies in the face of the narrative certain fans (and media) were trying to build about Vancouver achieving a “new normal” of elite play under Tocchet, Demko, and Hughes. It turns out it was just Hughes and a historically high shooting percentage, which is now stoking the revisionism that’s rampant in this thread.
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This isn't just Canucks fans though. Every other season we have some team ride a super high PDO, without an elite goalie that would consistently put up great save percentage, and every time we get the explanation that no, this time it will be sustainable in the long term, because their team has figured out that by shooting from high percentage areas, you score more goals.

Then they fall back down to earth, and it turns out every team tries to shoot from those areas.
 
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MessierII said:
Miller, Hughes, Boeser, Hronek, Hoglander, Joshua, Demko all had career years. That’s a lot of important players.
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Eh, many of those were not necessarily outliers though. Miller was just as good in 22-23. Boeser was just as good as a rookie and in the Covid season. Demko was just as good his previous two healthy seasons. Hronek was just as good for Detroit the year before. Hoglander was just as good in the Covid season. It wasn’t like a Huberdeau having 115 points or William Karlsson having 40 goals type seasons.
 
Shooting% last season:
Dakota Joshua - 21.4% (Career average of 17%)
Nils Hoglander - 20.0% (career average of 12%)
Brock Boeser - 19.6% (career average of 14%)
JT Miller - 19.1% (career average of 15%)
Sam Lafferty - 16.7% (Career average of 10%)

That's 5/12 regular forwards who shot insanely above their usual shooting%. Regression was always going to hit them
 
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PDO is nowhere near as precise a measurement as some of you pretend it to be. Hockey is hard to quantify. Accept it and stop acting like you’re smarter than everyone else.
 
PULSATING said:
Its a VERY advanced stat. You have to add save percentage and shooting percentage together to get it.
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MakoSlade said:
Wow, totally non-intuitive. But I don't know what most of these new stats mean. Thanks for the info!
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When you say anything like that it sounds dumb. But really it means, if a team has outlier sv% and/or shooting% than league average, statistics say there should be a regression to the mean at some point. Same the other way if a team can't bury anything or get a save they are probably going to get hot at some point.
 
Romang67 said:
This isn't just Canucks fans though. Every other season we have some team ride a super high PDO, without an elite goalie that would consistently put up great save percentage, and every time we get the explanation that no, this time it will be sustainable in the long term, because their team has figured out that by shooting from high percentage areas, you score more goals.

Then they fall back down to earth, and it turns out every team tries to shoot from those areas.
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‘
Death, taxes, a high-PDO team spending a year explaining why their team is different only to inevitably crash down to earth short-circuiting all their previous arguments
 
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QUOTE="Brookbank, post: 198466175, member: 339560"]
The statistical aberration is that they are not scoring this year.

The statistical aberration is not that they did score last year. So that means the whole PDO argument is a red herring.
[/QUOTE]

It never ceases to amaze me, the amount of absolute confidence people speak things as facts, that in reality are not accurate.

Like exhibit A here.

The Canucks last year, and I stated this then, I'd identical to the Sens playoff where we were one game seven goal from the cup finals. Some sens fans thought that we were on the up yet those that watched could see the luck they had wasn't sustainable.

Same here with the Canucks. Enjoy the ride while you're in it. But to think you are gonna be the statistical anomaly as a base of success is gonna backfire everytime. See the Sens next season and the current Canucks.
 
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leafsfan5 said:
Shooting% last season:
Dakota Joshua - 21.4% (Career average of 17%)
Nils Hoglander - 20.0% (career average of 12%)
Brock Boeser - 19.6% (career average of 14%)
JT Miller - 19.1% (career average of 15%)
Sam Lafferty - 16.7% (Career average of 10%)

That's 5/12 regular forwards who shot insanely above their usual shooting%. Regression was always going to hit them
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I think fans of high PDO teams always get defensive because the implication is that their team is only good because of "luck" in its most extreme sense of getting crazy bounces, refereeing help, etc..

In reality, it is often just the "luck" of having lots of guys firing on all cylinders at the exact same time. Joshua, Hoglander, Boeser, Lafferty, even guys like Soucy, Myers, Zadorov were all having the seasons of their lives. It wasn't all just getting bounces, a lot of them were legitimately playing well. Unfortunately, it's been proven time and time again that playing that well -- finding the corners on every shot, connecting on every single back door look, getting a last ditch block on every chance against -- for an extended period of time is impossible in the NHL.

Raccoon Jesus said:
Death, taxes, a high-PDO team spending a year explaining why their team is different only to inevitably crash down to earth short-circuiting all their previous arguments
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There has literally only ever been one team that was different and it was the 2010s Caps. Every other team has always come crashing down to earth
 
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Raccoon Jesus said:
‘
Death, taxes, a high-PDO team spending a year explaining why their team is different only to inevitably crash down to earth short-circuiting all their previous arguments
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The journey of a PDO jockey team that the fans insist aren’t PDO jockeys:

1 - holy shit were the best team in the NHL!! Contenders!!!! Deepest team in the league look at how everyone is scoring!

2 - let’s load up at the deadline, we’re contenders for sure!

3 - lose no later than the second round of the playoffs

4 - awards! Look at the awards! Jack Adams to our coach, one of the best in the league!

4 - no regression here, our players are uniquely better than the other PDO jockey teams! And our coaching is so good!

5 - look at all the moves we made in the off season! They’ll surely all turn up roses, because everything works out here!

6 - ugh slow start!

7 - what the f*** why aren’t all the players that shot the lights out last year scoring at an insane clip again!? Why can’t our goalie make a save!

8 - it’s all player X’s fault!

9 - a losing streak? WHAT THE f***! We might miss the playoffs!

10 - it must be the coach! Fire the coach! He forgot all the things he did to make magic last year and now he’s stupid!

Clockwork.
 
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Romang67 said:
This isn't just Canucks fans though. Every other season we have some team ride a super high PDO, without an elite goalie that would consistently put up great save percentage, and every time we get the explanation that no, this time it will be sustainable in the long term, because their team has figured out that by shooting from high percentage areas, you score more goals.

Then they fall back down to earth, and it turns out every team tries to shoot from those areas.
Click to expand...
The models don't account for Detroit's pre-shot movement!!!!!
 
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