So how do we look?

[Gil Fisher]

I heard this morning that Bogo is still 3-4 weeks away at least (didn't sound too positive). Burmi I think is ready to go and has been held back in Winnipeg (as opposed to rejoining StJ).

 

[JustGivingEr]

I don't think Scheifs is ready to play at the NHL level yet. He was on the ice all throughout the WJC (he did have a good tournament), and it would only be worse playing against full grown men.

 

[TroubaFan1]

Have a feeling that Pavelec will have a huge season

Agreed.

 

[TroubaFan1]

I don't think Scheifs is ready to play at the NHL level yet. He was on the ice all throughout the WJC (he did have a good tournament), and it would only be worse playing against full grown men.

I agree, but id say his WJC tourny was ok overall.

 

[surixon]

I don't think Scheifs is ready to play at the NHL level yet. He was on the ice all throughout the WJC (he did have a good tournament), and it would only be worse playing against full grown men.

Mark will be given a long look at camp but ultimately I think its best that he goes back to finish the year in Barrie. One more summer of strength training and power skating and he should be ready.

As for the Jets this year, I hope I'm wrong but I think we will be a bit behind the 8 ball to start the year compared to other teams:

Bogo is probably still a month a way (big loss)
Most of our team including most of our stars havent played any hockey yet this year, so there could be a lot of rust.


Im hoping for a fast start and a more consistient team this year. If we can get that we have a shot at the playoffs.

 

[JustGivingEr]

I'm pumped to see Jokinen in a Jets uni. I almost forgot we signed him!

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

Depth of the organization will be the biggest factor......... Meech will make the team as a 7th or 8th d and he is flexible enough to play 4wrd......Multiple injuries are going to happen playing every 2nd night especially on defence...... We will miss last years defensive- depth..... Kulda Festerling, Flood and even Randy Jones in this shortenned season...........I think Postma and Redman are NHL ready for a sheltered role.... but will probabbly be asked to play a more active role......

After Postma, Meech and Redmond ..... the cupboard looks pretty bare for NHL cappable d- man ......(..????? UFA Randy Jones.... are we that desperate are we there yet...)

Prediction ---due to injuries

Machecek plays full season
Cormier plays 30 games...... (would be more but he gets a minor injury)
Redmond plays 30 games
Maxwell plays 24 games
kling berg plays 10 games
Odell plays 3 games

Gagon ( I hate this call up) 7 games

 

[garret9]

Agreed.

I hope so...

I'm actually concerned about Pavs in a shortened season...

He has a bad history with conditioning, back-to-backs and away games... all 3 big concerns for a condensed season...

 

[TroubaFan1]

I hope so...

I'm actually concerned about Pavs in a shortened season...

He has a bad history with conditioning, back-to-backs and away games... all 3 big concerns for a condensed season...

A bit of a doom and gloom outlook for one of our mvp's of last season.

 

[jetkarma*]

Lots of factors for a shortened season , legitimate ones , imo the biggest , by far will Pavelec.

There is no room for bad stretch or spotty on off performances. Unfortunately I can not say I don't expect that.

Dislike the all non playoff teams being eligible for the first overall pick . I presume if you don't win the lottery you stay where you finished , as in only the number one pick is determined by the draft lottery. Still.... be sh*tty finishing last and have a good team that just missed the playoffs get a Crosby or Jones or McDavid imo.

 

[SCP Guy]

I heard this morning that Bogo is still 3-4 weeks away at least (didn't sound too positive). Burmi I think is ready to go and has been held back in Winnipeg (as opposed to rejoining StJ).

Noooooooooooo

 

[MadMen88]

How will Evander Kane do? That's going to be high on Jets radar during this 48 game stretch. Also, if we're looking like a playoff team, I absolutely love our goaltending tandem on paper.

 

[garret9]

The concerns are legitimate though because he has been weaker than most in those areas, not just last year but years before.

A bit of a doom and gloom outlook for one of our mvp's of last season.

Other than December, I disagree that he truly was our Most Valuable Player. Goalies, talking from experience, tend to get MVP's as nature of the jobs.

Now for Pavelec
I'll do some more in-depth stuff here later but here's some surface level stuff.

Month | SV% | GP | Wins | Loses | OTL | Win% | SA | SA/gm
October | 0.885 | 09 | 03 | 04 | 01 | 33.33 | 252 | 28.00
November | 0.904 | 12 | 04 | 05 | 03 | 33.33 | 375 | 31.25
December | 0.939 | 11 | 07 | 03 | 01 | 63.64 | 343 | 31.18
January | 0.908 | 10 | 03 | 05 | 01 | 30.00 | 273 | 27.30
February | 0.903 | 11 | 06 | 04 | 01 | 54.55 | 339 | 30.82
March | 0.900 | 13 | 05 | 07 | 01 | 38.46 | 391 | 30.08
April | 0.873 | 02 | 01 | 00 | 01 | 50.00 | 63 | 31.50
LeagueAvg | 0.914 | 58 | | | | | | 28.24

NB: League Average is from combination of the 32 goalies to play 40+ games

Placement in League Relative to the 32 40+ GP Goalies

Name | SV% | GP | SA/60 | GA/60
Pavs | 27 | 07 | 07 | 08

Few things I noted from looking over the last two seasons:

• Pavelec doesn't historically do as well on back-to-backs
• Pavelec doesn't historically do as well on weekends
• Pavelec doesn't historically do as well on away games
• Our great December record appears to be strongly influenced by Pavelec playing superiorly for a month

Some things to keep in mind when saying it was the Jets defense that caused his low SV%:

• Pavelec posted stronger numbers his last season as a Tharshers under a team that was weaker
• That Thrashers team top 6 defense for TOI was the same as last years but still the Jets team had lower shots against (improvement from one of the worst teams in the league)
• That top6 still had pinch crazy Byfuglien as their number 1 TOI guy (who if anything was more wild in a run&gun system)
• Noel played under a more defensive system than Pavelec had played before
• It's also been shown that the location of shots Pav recieves from doesn't varry from the normal
• There are teams, far worse than us, with worse defense that have goalies that posted way superior SV%

So, if the Jets did better and Pavs' stats are worse can they be entirely the defense fault?? In my opinion I think that GST playing 3rd line shutdown, lack of depth and playing Pavs more also had parts to play. But let's be honest, he isn't elite talent yet... We all hope he can be though. The goalie guild says this:


Unfortunately, I have found projects that interest me a little more than breaking down Pavelec. So, I will finish off with saying this: I think Pavs can really be a top 5-10 starter if he puts it together but it currently is a big IF. His consistency, positioning and conditioning are large issues that need to be resolved if this core is ever going to be a contender.

Some statistical breakdown of Pavelec has been done before me:
AIH breakdown of Pavelec looking at where his shots against occurred
AIH breakdown on how Pavelec was not let down by his team

 

[jetkarma*]

Bobby Mac

@TSNBobMcKenzie: Lots in WPG asking about Trouba. No plans to sign him now so expectation, for now anyway, is he'll be back at U of Michigan.
3 hours ago

@TSNBobMcKenzie: Big question in WPG: health of Zach Bogosian. Coming off wrist surgery, 4-6 months. End of Jan is 5 months. Burmistrov out couple of weeks.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Urgh...we might start the year like...

Ladd - Little - Wheeler
Kane - Jokinen - Ponikarovsky
Cormier - Slater - Machacek
Miettinen - Wellwood - Thorburn
Macenauer/Maxwell

Enstrom - Byfuglien
Hainsey - Clitsome
Stuart - Postma/Redmond
Meech

Pavelec
Montoya

Urgh, so much for the depth and being able to role 4 lines/3 D pairings...

 

[jetkarma*]

Urgh...we might start the year like...

Ladd - Little - Wheeler
Kane - Jokinen - Ponikarovsky
Cormier - Slater - Machacek
Miettinen - Wellwood - Thorburn
Macenauer/Maxwell

Enstrom - Byfuglien
Hainsey - Clitsome
Stuart - Postma/Redmond
Meech

Pavelec
Montoya

Urgh, so much for the depth and being able to role 4 lines/3 D pairings...

A couple so so short seasons from 2 or so players makes that look very scary , doesn't it?

 

[garret9]

Bobby Mac

@TSNBobMcKenzie: Lots in WPG asking about Trouba. No plans to sign him now so expectation, for now anyway, is he'll be back at U of Michigan.
3 hours ago

@TSNBobMcKenzie: Big question in WPG: health of Zach Bogosian. Coming off wrist surgery, 4-6 months. End of Jan is 5 months. Burmistrov out couple of weeks.

Urgh...we might start the year like...

Ladd - Little - Wheeler
Kane - Jokinen - Ponikarovsky
Cormier - Slater - Machacek
Miettinen - Wellwood - Thorburn
Macenauer/Maxwell

Enstrom - Byfuglien
Hainsey - Clitsome
Stuart - Postma/Redmond
Meech

Pavelec
Montoya

Urgh, so much for the depth and being able to role 4 lines/3 D pairings...

Ouch... another option would be:

Ladd - Little - Wheeler
Kane - Jokinen - Wellwood
Ponikarovsky - Slater - Machacek
Miettinen - Cormier - Thorburn
Macenauer/Maxwell
The damage is then minimized compared to before... 4th line is minimal since they won't play much minutes anyways... Antro/Burmi off of 3rd isn't great but Slater and Machacek aren't bad

 

[YWGinYYZ]

not sure what your logic is behind this.
20, 40 or 84 games - a season is a season, and they all lead to the playoffs.
if he's ready to play in the NHL, he will play this year. the lockout, if anything, made a greater case for him to play with the club. he's played in better hockey "situations" than any other Jet.

I stated my logic in my post. If he plays his way onto the team, great - I'm a big supporter. I just think that asset management might figure into it, that's all.

 

[truck]

How will Evander Kane do? That's going to be high on Jets radar during this 48 game stretch. Also, if we're looking like a playoff team, I absolutely love our goaltending tandem on paper.

The goalies:

Why? Both have been below average save percentage wise over the course of their careers.

 

[truck]

Ouch... another option would be:

Ladd - Little - Wheeler
Kane - Jokinen - Wellwood
Ponikarovsky - Slater - Machacek
Miettinen - Cormier - Thorburn
Macenauer/Maxwell
The damage is then minimized compared to before... 4th line is minimal since they won't play much minutes anyways... Antro/Burmi off of 3rd isn't great but Slater and Machacek aren't bad

Wait, what happened to Antro?

Also, isn't Burmi healed up?

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Wait, what happened to Antro?

Also, isn't Burmi healed up?

Bobby Mac tweeted that Burmistrov is out a couple of weeks yet.

Injury reports are hard as hell to get from KHL, but Antropov has not played in the past couple of weeks with Barys, so I have no idea on his status...

 

[Jet]

A couple of thoughts:

What do you think the chances are we pick someone up from teams trying to get cap compliant? Forgive me but I really don`t know many details about the new CBA and how it pertains to this season, but I would imagine that there could be deals to be had.

I don`t think the Jets should waste valuable time on Scheifele. With a shortened training camp and new players I think if you don`t think the kid has a legit chance to stick you just let him play the season out in Barrie. I know people will argue that but I just think that we need to figure out lines, systems and get some chemistry. With a shortened season starting off strong could be the difference between playoffs or not.

 

[allan5oh]

How will Evander Kane do? That's going to be high on Jets radar during this 48 game stretch. Also, if we're looking like a playoff team, I absolutely love our goaltending tandem on paper.

I think many will be surprised by his play. It's no secret his play last year was selfish, because of a contract year. I can see that disappearing, and his playmaking skills are shown a little more.

 

[Holden Caulfield]

A couple of thoughts:

What do you think the chances are we pick someone up from teams trying to get cap compliant? Forgive me but I really don`t know many details about the new CBA and how it pertains to this season, but I would imagine that there could be deals to be had.

I don`t think the Jets should waste valuable time on Scheifele. With a shortened training camp and new players I think if you don`t think the kid has a legit chance to stick you just let him play the season out in Barrie. I know people will argue that but I just think that we need to figure out lines, systems and get some chemistry. With a shortened season starting off strong could be the difference between playoffs or not.

Not this season, the real cap is 70 million this season. Officially it's 60 million, but it's actually 70 million, details about that are kinda sketchy, but the gist of it is, it's 70 million.

It's next season when the cap will fall to 64 million that we might have a chance at that, but teams will have 2 "amnesty" buyouts that will help hard pressed teams get under cap.

Particularly with the Burmistrov and potential Antropov injury I think you have to bring him into camp. He also has not rejoined Barrie yet, so now would be the perfect time to bring him into camp. There's only going to be 13-16 forwards in camp, so it won't be hurting anything. Worst case scenario is you send him back down after one week away from Barrie, don't see the downside in bringing him to camp.

 

[sipowicz]

Have a feeling that Pavelec will have a huge season

Actually Pavelec is the player that gives me the most worry, he was terrible in Europe this year.

Agree with Jet, now is not the time to bring Scheff for a tryout, 2013-2014 will be early enough.

Would like to see the Jets go for a proven 5-9 veteran forward if available.