Considering they just added 3 players at the TDL and played well missing their entire 1st line, top defenceman, and additional depth players, I think depth isn't an issue. They have more than enough depth.
So.. Edmonton has to be the favorites coming out of the west, right?
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Considering they just added 3 players at the TDL and played well missing their entire 1st line, top defenceman, and additional depth players, I think depth isn't an issue. They have more than enough depth.
LetsGoBLUES91
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tony d
New poll series coming from me in June
They're a good team and did good at the trade deadline but I can't see them coming out of the West. I think the Blues or Knights come out of the West.
Ryuji Yamazaki
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- Jul 22, 2015
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JoeThorntonsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
Really easy to call somebody a hypocrite when you make up a bunch of straw man arguments and then put them next to something that somebody has actually said.
I didn't use just one "catch-all" metric. I used GAR, xGAR, RAPM, and Micah McCurdy's Magnus. That's 4, and Stone ranks ahead of McDavid in every single one of them. I'm not just using those catch-all metrics either; I'm using them in addition to the fact that Stone on Ottawa had higher GF%, xGF%, CF% than the Oilers with McDavid, and that Ottawa without Stone was worse than the Oilers without McDavid. I'm using them in addition to the following pieces of evidence:
- The fact that their scoring rates aren't that different from one another.
- The fact that the gap in their scoring rates is about the same as the gap in their offensive according to the catch-all metrics.
- The fact that the gap in their scoring rates, and offensive impact according to the catch all metrics is much smaller than the gap between their raw bointz!
- While I don't place a ton of faith in this last one, I am also using this information in addition to my eye test.
It's much easier to reconcile the results of GAR after I put all of this information together, and the combination of all of this information is what has led me to conclude that Stone is a better hockey player than McDavid.
Using 5-on-5 differentials is better than using differentials at all strengths because the baseline differential for an average player is so much higher on the PP than it is at 5-on-5, and so much higher at 5-on-5 than it is at SH. I really don't get why this is difficult for you to comprehend. While there's also context that plays into 5-on-5, the baseline for an average player in their situations at 5-on-5 is not going to vary wildly - an average player might have 40% GF in one situation, and 60% in another, but even that is extreme and there probably aren't many players in the league whose situations actually fit that bill. By contrast, the "baseline" for just about every PP in the league is going to be at least 75%, and about 25% for the PK. Comparing their differentials at 5-on-5 may not be exactly the same, but it is like comparing Fuji Apples to Pink Lady Apples. Comparing differentials at all situations is like comparing apples to fighter jets. There is no comparison to be made.
None of the "catch-all" metrics which adjust for teammates use goals against to account for defense, so goaltending is irrelevant to their results. If it were up to me, I'd use expected goals against (where McDavid and Draisaitl grade no better compared to Stone than they do by actual goals against), but you already know how your fan base reacts when they hear those words. Baby steps.
President Skroob
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Then it is more likely there is a favorite. Take a few minutes and then try again.
Eternal Leaf
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The Blues are simply a class above, especially when Tarasenko comes back.
Vegas is also far more experienced and deep when it comes to playoff hockey. I think that's the best team that will come out of that division.
But I think Edmonton would do well against Calgary and Vancouver.
Vegas is also far more experienced and deep when it comes to playoff hockey. I think that's the best team that will come out of that division.
But I think Edmonton would do well against Calgary and Vancouver.
North Cole
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No strawman arguments here, the GAR model says that Couturier provides the most value based on that metric, which you have been heavily leaning on for the last few posts because it apparently adjusts for everything. So, I infer that he is a better hockey player than Stone and McDavid. That's not a strawman, that's using the unbiased "Catch-all" data that you provided. Which you should agree with.
It's actually not much easier to reconcile, and you aren't supposed to draw GAR conclusions when the numbers are very similar, due to the regression used in portions of the model. PP and PK are part of the game. Eliminating 35% of the game from the analysis doesn't support the conclusion that one player is better all-around than another.
Calls me out on Strawmen arguments and then goes on about some random analogy about fighter jets and apples. If the baselines PP and PK are similar, then they are comparable. If one player is 45% in one situation and 52% in another, versus one power player is 26% and one is 22%, that's a very similar difference, and not outlandish to compare. When I posted the rate statistics I wasn't concerned with raw points or the average player, I was comparing rates at all situations between McDavid and Stone. Not GAR in all situations. So the concern about the average player isn't warranted anyways.
If goaltending is irrelevent to their results, then why did you bring it up when talking about Carlson three posts ago? The stats we use should not change from player comparison to player comparison, that induces bias into the system, what I alluded to earlier.
I don't think we really need to keep going around and around. It was an interesting chat, but you clearly don't have a high opinion of my comprehension skills since you keep bringing them up like you are teaching a toddler. Furthermore, I can't seem to nail you down since I'm supposedly using strawmen when trying to determine if GAR only applies to Stone since he's above McDavid, and not when comparing Stone to the players above him.
It also amuses me that not one other person has come in here and agreed with you, which I know - you'll site another buzzword about the populum, but even the most outlandish Roman senators found some support from the mob. Also in future - complaining about strawmen when you continuously Ad hominem about my reasoning skills and comprehension is pretty weak
JoeThorntonsRooster
Don’t say eye test when you mean points
I’ll just say, because I think I owe it to you not to be nebulous here - no, I don’t think it’s a problem that Couturier is at the top of the GAR list over the past 3 years. He’s one of the best defensive forwards in the league, and after seeing the way that Giroux’s offensive career was re-vitalized after being put next to Couturier, I don’t think it’s outlandish to suggest that Couturier impacts the game offensively in ways that aren’t reflected in raw point totals, though it’s fair to wonder why even his scoring rates aren’t that impressive. I’d personally rank Couturier lower than #1 but I don’t think it’s a total indictment of a catch-all metric to have him there.
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I think Stars and Avs are on a second tier. Then all the top Pacific teams on the third tier.
WTG
December 5th
EdmFlyersfan
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heynowbababooey
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They dont have the defense or goaltending to make a deep run. I'd be shocked if they make it to the wcf.
Apocalypse Dude
"Value"
Oilers goaltending is pretty terrible compared to Vegas and Vancouver. That's not even comparing them to other Western teams.
I think Edmonton would be a pain to play against in a series but I don't expect much from them.
I think Edmonton would be a pain to play against in a series but I don't expect much from them.
This is an amazing thread to read now. Have to worry about making the playoffs before being considered a contender.
It actually is hilarious though we have been hearing all year how this Oilers team has finally hit its stride. Meanwhile the Flames have had an awful year and almost every single player has played way below expectations and they don't show up to most games.
Yet here we are 19 games left and Flames are only 2 back of the Oilers. How is this possible when the Oilers have broken out and are so good now?
Yet here we are 19 games left and Flames are only 2 back of the Oilers. How is this possible when the Oilers have broken out and are so good now?
Who?
Yamamota, Klefblom, Neal? Who else is a ‘main’ player that is hurt?
That’s not great. But a lot of teams have injuries right now.
I'd take Dallas, St Louis, Colorado and Vegas over the Oilers. They all have better goalies and better defense.
Yamamoto, Klefbom, Neal, Russell hurt, Kassian has been suspended. That's like 3/4 of our top 6 wingers from earlier in the season out and our #1 d and our #5 d. The Oilers org isn't deep at all so the injuries hurt them far more than others
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