So... Are the Penguins Even Going to Try?

[Rodgerwilco]

This is very funny

Of course the "core" tag applies more strongly to Marleau and Thornton, but Ward and Martin were both near the top in ice time (and points for Ward) at their positions for that 2016 team.

 

[weastern bias]

Of course the "core" tag applies more strongly to Marleau and Thornton, but Ward and Martin were both near the top in ice time (and points for Ward) at their positions for that 2016 team.

You are retconning the 2016 Sharks to fit the mold of the 2025 Penguins by naming 2 ancillary pieces as members of the core due to their age while excluding much more important players who were actually in their prime

The core did include older players like Thornton and Marleau, but Ward and Martin were not "core" players, they were secondary support pieces

The actual core of that team:

Thornton - 36
Pavelski - 31
Couture - 26
Burns - 30
Marleau - 36
Vlasic - 28
Jones - 26

That is a much younger core than the current Penguins have, and yet was still older than most teams in their competitive window, which is why they only ever had one more deep playoff run in 2019, by which time Thornton was a 3rd liner and Marleau was off the team

It's kind of a tangential aside, I just thought it was hilarious to see someone reductively point to 4 of the 5 oldest skaters on the Sharks finals team and say, "yep, that's the core" in order to shine a positive light on an aging team coming off having missed the playoffs in back to back seasons while ignoring who the actual core of the reference point even was

tl;dr, I lold

 

[Rodgerwilco]

You are retconning the 2016 Sharks to fit the mold of the 2025 Penguins by naming 2 ancillary pieces as members of the core due to their age while excluding much more important players who were actually in their prime

The core did include older players like Thornton and Marleau, but Ward and Martin were not "core" players, they were secondary support pieces

The actual core of that team:

Thornton - 36
Pavelski - 31
Couture - 26
Burns - 30
Marleau - 36
Vlasic - 28
Jones - 26

That is a much younger core than the current Penguins have, and yet was still older than most teams in their competitive window, which is why they only ever had one more deep playoff run in 2019, by which time Thornton was a 3rd liner and Marleau was off the team

It's kind of a tangential aside, I just thought it was hilarious to see someone reductively point to 4 of the 5 oldest skaters on the Sharks finals team and say, "yep, that's the core" in order to shine a positive light on an aging team coming off having missed the playoffs in back to back seasons while ignoring who the actual core of the reference point even was

tl;dr, I lold

I have no problem admitting that lining up Ward and Martin next to Letang and Karlsson is a bit of a stretch, but those guys did have a lot of ice time. I'm not so sure why it's "hilarious" but I'm glad I brought you a laugh, I suppose.

I'm not attempting to "retcon" anything, sorry it came off that way. I considered those guys important players at the time during that run in 2016.

Again, I'm not saying it would be easy for Pittsburgh, but their aged core still has a lot of talent and some gas in the tank. This is pretty much as optimistic of a statement as I would make regarding the current state of the Penguins team. I'm not very confident in the product on the ice, but it's not impossible.

I'm not by any means saying that they've got a great chance, but the core actually played pretty well for PIT most of the year, it was the secondary pieces and PP that really let the team down. Crosby, Letang, and Karlsson can still play at a high level for a lot of ice time. Malkin will be the biggest question mark, IMO.

Edit: Again I'd really like to stress that I'm not trying to act like the Penguins have no issues and can waltz their way to another cup appearance, but I think simply looking at the ages of the core and saying they're finished is just not a fair analysis.

 

[Rebels57]

They didnt stand pat, Hayes and Lizzote is some pretty good reinforcement to the bottom 6, compared to Nieto, Carter, Harkins.... huge upgrade actually.

Not sure if serious. Hayes is terrible, and a lockeroom cancer.

 

[weastern bias]

I have no problem admitting that lining up Ward and Martin next to Letang and Karlsson is a bit of a stretch, but those guys did have a lot of ice time. I'm not so sure why it's "hilarious" but I'm glad I brought you a laugh, I suppose.

"A stretch" is underselling it

Listing the 35 year old 3rd wheel on the 2nd line and the 34 year old babysitter for the #1D as "core pieces" while ignoring the 26 year old with a 30 point postseason, the 28 year old shutdown D, the 30 year old #1D who went a point-per-game in the playoffs and the 31 year old captain who scored 14 goals in the playoffs is arguably a lie of ommission

 

[filinski77]

Will never understand the comparison of the Penguins to the Capitals. Capitals held onto 1st rounders and rarely went for it and the results in comparison to the Penguins show exactly that.

Also they have gotten lucky with some ugly ass contracts and guys seemingly being put on LTIR to open up cap space.

So yes, they should 100% be further along with much better cap space and draft picks compared to the Pens.

But do you think any Penguins fan would trade the past 15 years for the Capitals? Absolutely not. Results and winning matter.

This happening to them was inevitable. They have been on top for too long and now their superstars are no longer in their primes.

Do the results show exactly that though?

Playoff wins since 2014/2015:
Penguins = 45
Capitals = 44

Regular season wins since 2014/2015:
Penguins = 433
Capitals = 449

Draft picks since 2014/2015:
Penguins = 3x 1st rounders and 10x second rounders
Capitals = 8x 1st rounders and 9x second rounders

Ignoring what happened 15 years ago since it's largely irrelevant to decisions from the last 7-10 years.

In short: The only difference between the Caps and Penguins success-wise has been that extra cup, which everyone knows that those 3 cups from 16-18 all went through the Caps/Pens 2nd round. Caps and Pens have been equally competitive and overall successful since that point. Yet, due to better cap and asset planning, the Capitals are:
1) A better team today
2) A younger team today
3) In a better cap situation today and in the future
4) Have a significantly better prospect pool to help the future outlook of their team

Really has nothing to do with "Pens had more success so it's fine". The Capitals were just better at planning the rebuild.

 

[Rodgerwilco]

"A stretch" is underselling it

Listing the 35 year old 3rd wheel on the 2nd line and the 34 year old babysitter for the #1D as "core pieces" while ignoring the 26 year old with a 30 point postseason, the 28 year old shutdown D, the 30 year old #1D who went a point-per-game in the playoffs and the 31 year old captain who scored 14 goals in the playoffs is arguably a lie of ommission

You make some good points, here and I appreciate the feedback. I wasn't trying to ignore any of those other players. I stated multiple times that that 2016 team had a lot of other pieces as well. I wasn't trying to "lie by omission" or anything of the sort. I can certainly acknowledge that it may have seemed as though I was trying to gloss over those other core players.

My main point here is that the core, surprisingly, hasn't really been the main issue for the Penguins in recent years.

 

[WarriorofTime]

Will never understand the comparison of the Penguins to the Capitals. Capitals held onto 1st rounders and rarely went for it and the results in comparison to the Penguins show exactly that.

...

But do you think any Penguins fan would trade the past 15 years for the Capitals? Absolutely not. Results and winning matter.

People really need to stop trying to equate the current upheaval of draft picks and "going for it" with the Penguins Cups in 2015-16 and 2016-17. They were trading a lot away long passed the point of being a competitive postseason team. Probably the biggest fallacy on this Board at the moment. The Penguins aren't paying the price for those Cups right now, they're paying the price for trying to hang on too long.

Between the two teams, the Capitals have done a much better job managing the go-forward situation over the last five years than the Penguins, that's pretty much indisputable. This isn't about who would trade whose overall history for the the other, which is what you're trying to do in your post. That's nice and all, but not relevant on the current discussion.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

Do the results show exactly that though?

Playoff wins since 2014/2015:
Penguins = 45
Capitals = 44

Regular season wins since 2014/2015:
Penguins = 433
Capitals = 449

Draft picks since 2014/2015:
Penguins = 3x 1st rounders and 10x second rounders
Capitals = 8x 1st rounders and 9x second rounders

Ignoring what happened 15 years ago since it's largely irrelevant to decisions from the last 7-10 years.

In short: The only difference between the Caps and Penguins success-wise has been that extra cup, which everyone knows that those 3 cups from 16-18 all went through the Caps/Pens 2nd round. Caps and Pens have been equally competitive and overall successful since that point. Yet, due to better cap and asset planning, the Capitals are:
1) A better team today
2) A younger team today
3) In a better cap situation today and in the future
4) Have a significantly better prospect pool to help the future outlook of their team

Really has nothing to do with "Pens had more success so it's fine". The Capitals were just better at planning the rebuild.

Lol a whole lot of words just to say that the Penguins have been more successful at doing exactly what the entire purpose of an NHL team is to do and that's win Stanley Cups.

All of your words will never overcome 1 core has 3 Stanley cups and 4 SC appearances while the other only managed to get 1 Stanley Cup.

Like I said, the Capitals should be in a better state today than the Pens. The Pens went after Stanley cups harder which resulted in future assets being traded away.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

People really need to stop trying to equate the current upheaval of draft picks and "going for it" with the Penguins Cups in 2015-16 and 2016-17. They were trading a lot away long passed the point of being a competitive postseason team. Probably the biggest fallacy on this Board at the moment. The Penguins aren't paying the price for those Cups right now, they're paying the price for trying to hang on too long.

Between the two teams, the Capitals have done a much better job managing the go-forward situation over the last five years than the Penguins, that's pretty much indisputable. This isn't about who would trade whose overall history for the the other, which is what you're trying to do in your post. That's nice and all, but not relevant on the current discussion.

And with what I said that the Penguins shouldn’t be getting compared to the Capitals because it is two different situations, how is that off base?

And it’s severely easy to sit here and pull the “oh the Penguins messed up by trying to win” shit. Especially in the late 2010’s. Hindsight is 20/20 and there is no problem going for it with Crosby still playing at this level. He deserves that along with Malkin and Letang.

Yeah it seems they don’t have the talent anymore to win another cup. I guess the FO fumbled a year or two.

But I would much rather them fumble a couple years of the ending of this core attempting something than throwing in the towel which the Caps have done for a couple years now.

Give the Penguins some time to truly rebuild.

 

[WarriorofTime]

And it’s severely easy to sit here and pull the “oh the Penguins messed up by trying to win” shit. Especially in the late 2010’s. Hindsight is 20/20 and there is no problem going for it with Crosby still playing at this level. He deserves that along with Malkin and Letang.

Yes, correct, but that's ultimately the subject of discussion.

 

[filinski77]

Lol a whole lot of words just to say that the Penguins have been more successful at doing exactly what the entire purpose of an NHL team is to do and that's win Stanley Cups.

All of your words will never overcome 1 core has 3 Stanley cups and 4 SC appearances while the other only managed to get 1 Stanley Cup.

Like I said, the Capitals should be in a better state today than the Pens. The Pens went after Stanley cups harder which resulted in future assets being traded away.

"Lol a whole lot of words" -> Clearly way too many words for you to comprehend and/or read, since you entirely missed the point.

Good job.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

Will never understand the comparison of the Penguins to the Capitals. Capitals held onto 1st rounders and rarely went for it and the results in comparison to the Penguins show exactly that.

Also they have gotten lucky with some ugly ass contracts and guys seemingly being put on LTIR to open up cap space.

So yes, they should 100% be further along with much better cap space and draft picks compared to the Pens.

But do you think any Penguins fan would trade the past 15 years for the Capitals? Absolutely not. Results and winning matter.

This happening to them was inevitable. They have been on top for too long and now their superstars are no longer in their primes.

I see people making this argument a lot but I don’t think it has as much relevance as people think it does.

Most of the disparity between the current state of the Caps and Pens (and their prospect pools) can be explained by their drafts, trades, and FA acquisitions from the 2018 draft onwards. That is, moves that took place AFTER both teams won their Cups.

There is a pretty stark contrast when you put their last 7 drafts side by side:

Washington Capitals Draft History at hockeydb.com

Pittsburgh Penguins Draft History at hockeydb.com

IMO Washington’s pro scouting has also done a pretty good job in recent years. Signing longer term pieces like Dylan Strome to good value and also picking up guys for shorter term who can later be flipped for picks at the TDL if need be.

There’s no question that Pittsburgh as a whole has been the more successful franchise. But IMO people are excusing their current paucity of prospects and young talent as a necessary byproduct of that success, when really a lot of it has to do with mismanagement by Hextall et al in their more recent, post-contention period.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

I see people making this argument a lot but I don’t think it has as much relevance as people think it does.

Most of the disparity between the current state of the Caps and Pens (and their prospect pools) can be explained by their drafts, trades, and FA acquisitions from the 2018 draft onwards. That is, moves that took place AFTER both teams won their Cups.

There is a pretty stark contrast when you put their last 7 drafts side by side:

Washington Capitals Draft History at hockeydb.com

Pittsburgh Penguins Draft History at hockeydb.com

IMO Washington’s pro scouting has also done a pretty good job in recent years. Signing longer term pieces like Dylan Strome to good value and also picking up guys for shorter term who can later be flipped for picks at the TDL if need be.

There’s no question that Pittsburgh as a whole has been the more successful franchise. But IMO people are excusing their current paucity of prospects and young talent as a necessary byproduct of that success, when really a lot of it has to do with mismanagement by Hextall et al in their more recent, post-contention period.

Yeah certainly some mismanagement. But let’s not act like the Capitals are some team to emulate here.

They had/have some horrific contracts and gotten severely lucky to be able to get out of them (Kuznetsov) or bury them on LTIR (Backstrom/Oshie). People bringing up how much overhaul and lower average age when without the above, they wouldn’t have been able to do hardly any of it.

The only thing I would give their ownership props for is realizing their team just wasn’t very good and they threw in the towel on the past couple years. When obviously with hindsight the Penguins should have done the same.

The worst thing a Penguins owner has done is Hextall and his love affair with NMC. And how horrific he was at filling out a competent bottom 6.

Something Dubas didn’t do well either.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

Yeah certainly some mismanagement. But let’s not act like the Capitals are some team to emulate here.

They had/have some horrific contracts and gotten severely lucky to be able to get out of them (Kuznetsov) or bury them on LTIR (Backstrom/Oshie). People bringing up how much overhaul and lower average age when without the above, they wouldn’t have been able to do hardly any of it.

The only thing I would give their ownership props for is realizing their team just wasn’t very good and they threw in the towel on the past couple years. When obviously with hindsight the Penguins should have done the same.

The worst thing a Penguins owner has done is Hextall and his love affair with NMC. And how horrific he was at filling out a competent bottom 6.

Something Dubas didn’t do well either.

I disagree that they are “lucky” to get rid of Kuznetsov. They wanted to get rid of him years ago and many in the fanbase wanted him bought out or traded at the cost of multiple draft picks as a sweetener. They refused to do that and eventually found a buyer where they were able to recoup some value. The same scenario played out with Mantha.

With regard to Oshie, I don’t consider them “lucky” to get out of the last year of his contract at all. I think almost all Caps fans would prefer to have a healthy Oshie this year than 1 year of Mangiapane and Raddysh.

The Backstrom contract is a tough one but he had a debilitating condition and career-ending surgery and is no longer capable of playing. You can look at it as lucky that they got out of his cap hit, I see it as unlucky that he was so determined to attempt a comeback that he didn’t go on LTIR 2-3 years ago.

Not gonna say the caps haven’t made any missteps in managing their team or navigating the cap — obviously they have. But you either aren’t paying attention or you just have a problem with the team if you can’t give a modest amount of credit where credit is due. Whatever.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

I disagree that they are “lucky” to get rid of Kuznetsov. They wanted to get rid of him years ago and many in the fanbase wanted him bought out or traded at the cost of multiple draft picks as a sweetener. They refused to do that and eventually found a buyer where they were able to recoup some value. The same scenario played out with Mantha.

With regard to Oshie, I don’t consider them “lucky” to get out of the last year of his contract at all. I think almost all Caps fans would prefer to have a healthy Oshie this year than 1 year of Mangiapane and Raddysh.

The Backstrom contract is a tough one but he had a debilitating condition and career-ending surgery and is no longer capable of playing. You can look at it as lucky that they got out of his cap hit, I see it as unlucky that he was so determined to attempt a comeback that he didn’t go on LTIR 2-3 years ago.

Not gonna say the caps haven’t made any missteps in managing their team or navigating the cap — obviously they have. But you either aren’t paying attention or you just have a problem with the team if you can’t give a modest amount of credit where credit is due. Whatever.

This isn’t about liking what they did or not. It’s about glaringly different situations and people trying to compare apples to oranges.

Yes the Capitals were able to get a hell of a lot younger the past couple years. Easy to do when you trade off and get some injury luck in aging players with bad contracts. They have also had 1st rounders to come up and push others off which the Penguins don’t have that luxury.

Still need to see if these guys they brought in can even perform. PLD contract is brutal. Chychrun played like a parking cone in Montreal, etc. etc. Could they be good players in Washington? Absolutely.

I am simply taking aim at others who think the Penguins should be in some sort of rat race with the Capitals. They need to be worrying about their own situation because the Capitals are not in the same boat.

And why even try to emulate the Capitals?

 

[filinski77]

And why even try to emulate the Capitals?

Because despite both teams being in similar situations 5-6 years ago (aging teams that were top dogs for a long time), the Capitals have managed to:
1) Build up a solid prospect pool with some really good pieces
2) Have a younger and better roster today than the Penguins

All of this while maintaining essentially the exact same level of competitiveness that the Penguins have had in that comparable time period.

Point being: Penguins have had absolutely nothing to show for in their last 6 years (compared to the Caps) despite delaying their rebuild by 4 years.

 

[Hockey4Lyfe]

Because despite both teams being in similar situations 5-6 years ago (aging teams that were top dogs for a long time), the Capitals have managed to:
1) Build up a solid prospect pool with some really good pieces
2) Have a younger and better roster today than the Penguins

All of this while maintaining essentially the exact same level of competitiveness that the Penguins have had in that comparable time period.

Point being: Penguins have had absolutely nothing to show for in their last 6 years (compared to the Caps) despite delaying their rebuild by 4 years.

Yet the Caps are still a middling team just like the Penguins. You guys can keep your prospect pool and we will keep our cups. Then we can all be happy.

Capitals still have a prospect pool that is regularly ranked in the bottom half of the league if not bottom third.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

Yes the Capitals were able to get a hell of a lot younger the past couple years. Easy to do when you trade off and get some injury luck in aging players with bad contracts. They have also had 1st rounders to come up and push others off which the Penguins don’t have that luxury.

I am simply taking aim at others who think the Penguins should be in some sort of rat race with the Capitals. They need to be worrying about their own situation because the Capitals are not in the same boat.

And why even try to emulate the Capitals?

People are drawing a logical parallel between two teams who have essentially shared the same timeline with regard to their windows of contention, and now both find themselves in similar conundrums where they’re weighing a sense of obligation to remain competitive to their legacy players, while being mindful of managing assets in a way that doesn’t unnecessarily prolong the inevitable painful rebuild.

The fact that they have in the past been one of the league’s premier rivalries further invites comparison. That’s fine if you’d rather not compare the two but you shouldn’t be surprised when others do so.

 

[Luigi Lemieux]

Who gives a crap about the caps. They stink too and are not winning anything anytime soon. If anything they are not bottoming out hard enough and when the pens do they'll end up with better higher end pieces.

 

[Nogatco Rd]

Yet the Caps are still a middling team just like the Penguins. You guys can keep your prospect pool and we will keep our cups. Then we can all be happy.

As has been pointed out repeatedly ITT, there is no such tradeoff. The prospect pool you’re referring to was accumulated exclusively from the 2018-2024 drafts. During that period the Pens and Caps have won exactly the same number of playoff rounds: zero.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Because despite both teams being in similar situations 5-6 years ago (aging teams that were top dogs for a long time), the Capitals have managed to:
1) Build up a solid prospect pool with some really good pieces
2) Have a younger and better roster today than the Penguins

All of this while maintaining essentially the exact same level of competitiveness that the Penguins have had in that comparable time period.

Point being: Penguins have had absolutely nothing to show for in their last 6 years (compared to the Caps) despite delaying their rebuild by 4 years.

Do they really have a "better" roster? Even last year, the Caps made it largely because of strong goaltending. The Pens' GF/GA differential was much better than the Caps'.

I mean, neither is anything to write home about. But I'd argue that "on paper" the Pens have a better team. Inconsistent goaltending/coach that refuses to adapt seem to be a bigger issue than the Caps having an actual better roster.

 

[filinski77]

Do they really have a "better" roster? Even last year, the Caps made it largely because of strong goaltending. The Pens' GF/GA differential was much better than the Caps'.

I mean, neither is anything to write home about. But I'd argue that "on paper" the Pens have a better team. Inconsistent goaltending/coach that refuses to adapt seem to be a bigger issue than the Caps having an actual better roster.

I would argue they easily do. Let's call Pens and Caps rosters even last year.

Then look at what changed from last season to this upcoming season:
-> Capitals got a lot younger, negating the impact of aging players 90% of the time being on a decline
-> Capitals actually went out and tangibly made a lot more improvements to their roster. The actual players on the team are a lot better
-> Capitals have a ton of U25 players on their rosters who are both NHL-ready and are on the upswing. Gives potential for a lot of increased quality of play from last season
-> Penguins got older, where pretty much all of their best players are 34-38 years old, which would naturally lead to an expected decline in quality of play
-> Penguins lost their 2nd best player

As has been pointed out repeatedly ITT, there is no such tradeoff. The prospect pool you’re referring to was accumulated exclusively from the 2018-2024 drafts. During that period the Pens and Caps have won exactly the same number of playoff rounds: zero.

That dude is just spouting BS at this point. Been corrected multiple times and is just falling back on the same excuse.

 

[Midnight Judges]

Do they really have a "better" roster? Even last year, the Caps made it largely because of strong goaltending. The Pens' GF/GA differential was much better than the Caps'.

I mean, neither is anything to write home about. But I'd argue that "on paper" the Pens have a better team. Inconsistent goaltending/coach that refuses to adapt seem to be a bigger issue than the Caps having an actual better roster.

The only thing the Capitals did better than the Pens last season was hold a lead.

Who gives a crap about the caps. They stink too and are not winning anything anytime soon. If anything they are not bottoming out hard enough and when the pens do they'll end up with better higher end pieces.

I assure you, this franchise is more than capable of getting a lottery pick. They rolled the dice pretty hard but they didn't actually lose a lot to do it. The chance of coming up empty is significant IMO.

 

[Lou Sassole]

I'd point out that only the Crosby draft was a lottery pick. In the Lemieux draft, the 1OA pick went to the worst team, and the way the Penguins got that pick was definitely (and famously) by design.

Lol a whole lot of words just to say that the Penguins have been more successful at doing exactly what the entire purpose of an NHL team is to do and that's win Stanley Cups.

All of your words will never overcome 1 core has 3 Stanley cups and 4 SC appearances while the other only managed to get 1 Stanley Cup.

Like I said, the Capitals should be in a better state today than the Pens. The Pens went after Stanley cups harder which resulted in future assets being traded away.

Yeah, but it feels good enough to know we drove the stake through the heart of your three peat, and apparently your run of being a viable cup contender, en route to our 1 and only cup.