Small sample sizes - when do you start believing?

[tanti9]

You have to love NHL fans, and in general any sports fans, as so many read so much into a few games into the regular season. I personally wait until about the 20 game mark to make any assumptions. Every player and team have their ups and downs and their hot and cold streaks. I do believe that a hot start to the year can be beneficial and vice versa but some of the "takes" and fighting is hilarious lol. HF boards, pls never change.

What are your thoughts? How big of a sample size does it take for you to say if sth is here to stay or just an aberration. As i said, 20 games for me is more than a blip and is sth that may be sustainable.

Cheers

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[ViD]

Chill out

 

[Chainshot]

It's fun to see some fans who have been given a gift like say Stolarz current streak and watching them enjoy it.

 

[GOilers88]

Yes.

 

[Mr Kot]

AHHH!!!!

AAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!

 

[MoneyManny]

I don't get why people are embarassed to get excited by things as fans. I overreact on day 1 everytime, and for me the rollercoaster is half of the fun. I'm wrong all the time and i really don't care.

I don't understand the pride of being level headed with a hobby/passion.

 

[Romang67]

I took the liberty of changing your awful title.

For players, I probably start paying attention some 20 games into the season. At that point, a short hot streak won't let a player who hasn't produced catch up with the best players, and a player on a 20 game heater will probably have a really good season regardless of cold streaks.

For teams? Thanksgiving is solid. Half the season is also a good bench mark. Yes, some teams will still be rolling with oddly high shooting percentages, and their fans will be telling everyone who will listen that their team that season is finally the real exception, but for the most part things will have started to normalize a bit.

 

[Breakers]

Most GM’s know by American thanksgiving who their team is.

The St Louis’s of the time are extremely rare

 

[Golden_Jet]

You have to love NHL fans, and in general any sports fans, as so many read so much into a few games into the regular season. I personally wait until about the 20 game mark to make any assumptions. Every player and team have their ups and downs and their hot and cold streaks. I do believe that a hot start to the year can be beneficial and vice versa but some of the "takes" and fighting is hilarious lol. HF boards, pls never change.

What are your thoughts? How big of a sample size does it take for you to say if sth is here to stay or just an aberration. As i said, 20 games for me is more than a blip and is sth that may be sustainable.

Cheers

What’s STH, usually in this forum it means, season ticket holder, doesn’t seem to apply here.

 

[zappa4ever]

 

[FrozenJagrt]

I don't really buy into a narrative until around Christmas. Or I try not to anyway. What a guy in does in October doesn't really interest me.

 

[Kairi Zaide]

When normality is achieved in the distribution of the data/info you're looking at, or when the central limit theorem can be invoked.

 

[Master P]

Basically...
If your team starts of really well then "you know" immediately.
If they start off poor then you have to wait a few months to see "who they really are".

But by the time December rolls around people should have a pretty good idea.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Usually takes me until the first intermission of game one

 

[Figgy44]

Bob Hartley used to say that he evaluated the team based on groups of 7 games. He basically chopped up the season into small playoff series and then he'd kinda macro tracked certain things in that way. I think he'd also kinda blend the ups and downs of that 7 game series for specific players.

By Christmas you kinda know if your team has won enough 7 game series to be considered a reasonable contender. The 7 game thing also helps to identify how consistent your teams' highs and lows are.

Winning 6-1 then losing 2-5 in 7 game groupings isn't the same as winning back to back 4-3, 4-3.

 

[Ianturnedbull]

You have to love NHL fans, and in general any sports fans, as so many read so much into a few games into the regular season. I personally wait until about the 20 game mark to make any assumptions. Every player and team have their ups and downs and their hot and cold streaks. I do believe that a hot start to the year can be beneficial and vice versa but some of the "takes" and fighting is hilarious lol. HF boards, pls never change.

What are your thoughts? How big of a sample size does it take for you to say if sth is here to stay or just an aberration. As i said, 20 games for me is more than a blip and is sth that may be sustainable.

Cheers

20 games

 

[DJJones]

Ya 20 games seems reasonable

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

At HFB, you're only as good as your last shift.

 

[The Gr8 Dane]

82 games