Confirmed with Link: Slafkovsky, Guhle, Harris and Xhekaj made the team!!

[BaseballCoach]

So in your opinion, all those guys from your list of guys that failed to make the NHL, didn't make it because they got ruined in the AHL? Is that the logic? They would've made it if developed in the NHL eh?

No of course not. That's the whole point. People cite examples here and there but correlation is not causation.

However it is interesting that out of the 9 players drafted in the first two rounds who did start in the NHL and not the AHL, seven succeeded.

And that's 7 out of the only 10 that succeeded. Just 3 succeeded after starting in the AHL, and ironically all three were drafted the same year.

From the other side, only two guys busted who started in the NHL, Latendresse in 2006 and Kotkaniemi twelve years later.

Note that Mete does not count, it was totally out of the box (insane maybe?) to start a 5'-8" DEFENCEMAN who was just a fourth round pick in the NHL at age 19.

 

[ahmedou]

 

[Sugi21]

Outside of Matheson, Ghule was MTL best defenceman at camp, he's not going anywhere.

Unfortunately that’s not saying much with our d core but Ghule was putting the puck in the net preseason hopefully he can carry that over to the regular season I think he’ll make us forget about Romanov

 

[FerrisRox]

Barron better get it together. For a guy who's played way more nhl games than the other 3, he looks pretty raw and unsure of himself. I really hope he works out.

Barron has played less NHL games than Harris.

 

[Goal Caufield50]

Barron has played less NHL games than Harris.

Barron has played 7 NHL games. Harris has played 10

 

[FerrisRox]

Barron has played 7 NHL games. Harris has played 10

Is seven less than ten?

 

[salbutera]

Buffalo had mismanagement is what pushed their rebuild back. Arizona also. Oilers under Peter C. Leafs too for that matter. Kessel was A major bad trade. Why they each took 10+ years to rebuild. Teams that had good management rebuilt in less than half that time. Tampa, Colorado, Rangerc, etc..

Avs inadvertently went through 2-rebuilds w Sakic.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Give Slaf 5 games, and then send him down. It will be much better for his development to score a lot in the ahl than score a few in the nhl.

Send Xhekaj down once Matheson or Edmundson is back. His defensive game needs some work

 

[Kojo]

Give Slaf 5 games, and then send him down. It will be much better for his development to score a lot in the ahl than score a few in the nhl.

Send Xhekaj down once Matheson or Edmundson is back. His defensive game needs some work

If you send Slaf down to the AHL we will lose more games, so why not keep him.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

If you send Slaf down to the AHL we will lose more games, so why not keep him.

Slaf in or out won't make a difference in the standings for the habs this year. He's likely getting ~30 pts if he plays a full nhl season.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Give Slaf 5 games, and then send him down. It will be much better for his development to score a lot in the ahl than score a few in the nhl.

Send Xhekaj down once Matheson or Edmundson is back. His defensive game needs some work

No that is a fallacy, or at least it is sometimes a fallacy. As long as the player is producing enough at the NHL level that he is outperforming his internal competition, scoring more when competing against much weaker players will not be better for his develoipment.

Top draft picks mostly know how to score against weaker compeittion, it's the NHL level that needs to be learned.

Slaf in or out won't make a difference in the standings for the habs this year. He's likely getting ~30 pts if he plays a full nhl season.

So 2 more than Vincent Levcavalier and 23 more than Joe Thornton?

If most of the 30 points are at even strength, that would be quite a success story.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

No that is a fallacy, or at least it is sometimes a fallacy. As long as the player is producing enough at the NHL level that he is outperforming his internal competition, scoring more when competing against much weaker players will not be better for his develoipment.

Top draft picks mostly know how to score against weaker compeittion, it's the NHL level that needs to be learned.

That "weaker competition" is a league much stronger than where Slaf played last year and struggled to produce.

 

[HuGort]

Got burned a few times. Probably needs 40-50 games in Laval. When Matheson is healthy.

 

[BaseballCoach]

That "weaker competition" is a league much stronger than where Slaf played last year and struggled to produce.

I don't care about last year anymore. If Slaf is producing more than many of our other wingers, he should stay and learn more. If FOUR of Armia, Hoffman, Dadonov, Drouin, Pezzetta and Pitlick outperform him and push him out of a starting spot, then I'm ok to send him down.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

I don't care about last year anymore. If Slaf is our producing more than many of our other wingers, he should stay and learn more. If FOUR of Armia, Hoffman, Dadonov, Drouin, Pezzetta and Pitlick outperform him and push him out os a starting spot, then I'm ok to send him down.

Thats a terrible way to develop a prospect. What the other wingers are doing should have no influence on what to do with Slaf.

Theres also no way of knowing if 4 of those can outperform slaf when theres only 3 of them in the lineup.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Thats a terrible way to develop a prospect. What the other wingers are doing should have no influence on what to do with Slaf.

Theres also no way of knowing if 4 of those can outperform slaf when theres only 3 of them in the lineup.

I don't know on what basis you can say it is terrible, but all top prospects develop best in the NHL so long as they are there on merit.

I posted yesterday the stats:

Since the 2005 lockout up to the 2019 draft, the Habs started 9 top-two round draft picks in Montreal, and 7 succeeded - all except Latendresse and Kotkaniemi.

They started 18 guys in the AHL and only three succeeded - only McDonagh (NYR), Subban and Pacioretty (age 19 for half season).

This pattern is entirely normal and to be expected when teams intentionally try to start their most ready prospects in the NHL. They will make some mistakes (2/9 in Habs case) but the overall results show that the approach makes sense in general.

 

[SirClintonPortis]

Barron better get it together. For a guy who's played way more nhl games than the other 3, he looks pretty raw and unsure of himself. I really hope he works out.

Usually, the first "deadline" year to see if a defenseman is going to pan out is 22 years of age. Harris is 22, Barron is 20. So Barron has a couple more years to evaluate. If a Dman provides NHL service before age 22, that is bonus service and not to be expected.

Harris is ripe and ready.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Barron better get it together. For a guy who's played way more nhl games than the other 3, he looks pretty raw and unsure of himself. I really hope he works out.

Way more NHL games? Less than Harris going into this season. Harris 10, Barron just 7. Three more than Kovacevic.

Barron is the perfect candidate to get big minutes in the AHL and learn to read the game better. He has Petry like tools but like young Jeff, needs to mature his understanding of the game.

 

[schwang26]

Way more NHL games? Less than Harris going into this season. Harris 10, Barron just 7. Three more than Kovacevic.

Barron is the perfect candidate to get big minutes in the AHL and learn to read the game better. He has Petry like tools but like young Jeff, needs to mature his understanding of the game.

Sorry. I should've said professional games. But yes, I get he's still young. I probably overreacted, but I did think he'd look better.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

I don't know on what basis you can say it is terrible, but all top prospects develop best in the NHL so long as they are there on merit.

I posted yesterday the stats:

Since the 2005 lockout up to the 2019 draft, the Habs started 9 top-two round draft picks in Montreal, and 7 succeeded - all except Latendresse and Kotkaniemi.

They started 18 guys in the AHL and only three succeeded - only McDonagh (NYR), Subban and Pacioretty (age 19 for half season).

This pattern is entirely normal and to be expected when teams intentionally try to start their most ready prospects in the NHL. They will make some mistakes (2/9 in Habs case) but the overall results show that the approach makes sense in general.

That doesn't prove your point. Those players that skipped the ahl spent multiple seasons in their respective leagues after being drafted and before making the nhl.
Caufield didn't play in the ahl, but he played 2 years in college before making the jump.
Slaf playing in the ahl this season is no different. It's just a different development league before the nhl.

What we know is that the two guys we drafted that went straight to the nhl have had very disappointing careers to date. Also, a ton of recent high draft picks have struggled after making the nhl at 18 years old (see Lafreniere, Kakko, Dach, Kotkaniemi, etc.).

 

[Goal Caufield50]

Is seven less than ten?

Ask your parents?

 

[BaseballCoach]

That doesn't prove your point. Those players that skipped the ahl spent multiple seasons in their respective leagues after being drafted and before making the nhl.
Caufield didn't play in the ahl, but he played 2 years in college before making the jump.
Slaf playing in the ahl this season is no different. It's just a different development league before the nhl.

What we know is that the two guys we drafted that went straight to the nhl have had very disappointing careers to date. Also, a ton of recent high draft picks have struggled after making the nhl at 18 years old (see Lafreniere, Kakko, Dach, Kotkaniemi, etc.).

The bolded is misleading.

Galchenyuk crashed AFTER he reached 30g and 1.0 ppg level at age 22. Other than his fans wishing he played more C, Galch was developed reasonably well.

So since Latendresse in 2006, we have had ONE guy that disappointed - Kotkaniemi. Several other players bypassed the AHL and still succeeded.

And Mete is a complete outlier, he should have played Junior at 19, then 2-3 years in the AHL then probably gone off to Europe. A 5'8" D with no shot, no physical defending ability and not much passing vision is not a top prospect, hardly surprising for a 4th round pick.

As for guys "struggling" in the NHL at 18, this is normal for decades. Joe Thornton got 7 points his first year, Lecavalier 28. Victor Hedman broke out offensively at age 22.

Tampa's top 7 prospects over the past 20 years played a grand total of 17 games between them in the AHL.

Fans need to be more patient to see great stat sheets. Seeing the great stat lines in the AHL may make the fans feel better, but it means little to nothing to NHL stardom.

 

[BaseballCoach]

That doesn't prove your point. Those players that skipped the ahl spent multiple seasons in their respective leagues after being drafted and before making the nhl.

And yet I have had to argue with fans who wanted Guhle to be sent down to start the year, even though he is one fellow who spent two more years in the CHL.

Caufield didn't play in the ahl, but he played 2 years in college before making the jump.

His 18 and 19 yo seasons, Junior aged, iow.