Speculation: Sir Sam of House Bennett - contract speculation

[Pablo El Perro]

would be shocked if Ekblad doesn't walk.

It'll be a slow walk.

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

For the Habs I'd be fine with 8 per

 

[Captain34]

Yep. He's an old school guy who can play the game any way you want. Excellent in all three zones. Great puck carrier and distributor while being one of the hardest hitting players in the game AND being one of the best pound for pound fighters around. That's an extremely rare combination. He's also excellent at getting pucks go the net and creating space for his teammates.

There's a reason both Huberdeau and Tkachuk had their career years playing on Bennett's wing - his ability to transport the puck through the neutral zone and create havoc in the offensive zone is exactly what heavy footed scoring wingers need.

There really aren't very many top 6 centers like him in the league.

View attachment 913865

Over the last 3 years, there have been 5 players who have paced for an average of 50+ points, 175+ hits, and 225+ shots, and only one of them was a center:

Player	Position	GP	Points/82 game pace	Shots/82 game pace	Hits/82 game pace
Alex Ovechkin	L	229	82	322	182
Andrei Svechnikov	R	201	72	244	192
Brady Tkachuk	L	242	76	336	273
Evander Kane	L	161	57	264	259
Sam Bennett	C	203	53	244	179

That's 4 of the top power wingers in the league, and then Sam Bennett.

Same story at 5v5, only 3 guys average 9+ shots and hits/60 while putting up 1.80+ p/60:

Player	Position	GP	Points/60	Shots/60	Hits/60
Brady Tkachuk	L	242	2.33	11.4	13.2
Sam Bennett	C	203	1.90	9.8	9.1
Evander Kane	L	161	1.88	10.5	12.2

This also highlights how much of a unicorn Brady Tkachuk is among wingers - there's a reason his contract far exceeded what his raw point totals would have suggested. Signed an $8.2M AAV despite pacing for 53 points in his contract year.

Sam Bennett is similarly a unicorn among centers, and has averaged a 33 goal 61 point pace during the team's last two very successful playoff runs (with a higher 5v5 p/60 than Barkov). His playoffs hits/60 nearly doubled from 9.1 in the regular season to 17.1 in those 2 runs, which again shows his value in the playoffs.

Lindholm is probably the best, most recent comparison - they'll be the same age at the time of signing, and they are both versatile, well rounded all situations centers who are good but not elite offensively, but they've proven they're capable of centering a top team's #1 scoring line. Lindholm paced for 16 goal 48 points in his contract year, pretty far below the 27g 56p pace Bennett has averaged as a Panther.

Other recent examples that make sense are Hertl, Couturier, Kadri, Horvat, and Cirelli.

Player	AAV	Inflation adjusted (assume 3.0% annual)
Horvat	$8.5M	$9.02M
Hertl	$8.14M	$8.89M
Lindholm	$7.75M	$7.98M
Couturier	$7.75M	$8.47M
Kadri	$7M	$7.65M
Cirelli	$6.25M	$6.63M
Average	$7.57M	$8.11M

When you factor in his physicality and the way he elevates his game during the playoffs, I think Bennett's agent should be asking for $8M+ on a long term deal. If Panthers can get him for anything less $7.5M I think that's a discount vs what the market would offer, especially considering what we just saw Lindholm sign for.

What a terrific post! Thank you for taking the time.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Hischier is a 2017 draft pick vs Bennett 2014, 3 years are quite significant when Bennett's deal kicks in next year (at ~30 years old)

Hischier isnt as physcial but is better on both offense and defense

Hischier did sign as an rfa and under lower cap hit but I dont see them as comparable players tbh

yeah there are better comps, I highlighted them in my post above. Hischier was the first I thought of from a devils fan perspective

Bennett is a good 2C but not a 1C on a playoff team like Hishcier can be.

6 years 6.25M would be a nice deal for the panthers

Since he joined the Panthers, these are his 5v5 scoring rates with his ranks among true centers in the league:
- 0.99 g/60 (14th)
- 2.06 p/60 (31st)
- 1.70 primary p/60 (22nd)

I think he's proven more than capable of centering a top line so long as he's got a high level offensive player on the wing. Look at the success he had with Huberdeau and then Tkachuk. It's no coincidence those guys had career years on Bennett's wing.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Am I insane thinking he could be taking between 6.5 and 7 for 8 years?

He's very important but Carter V did score 40 goals the other year.

 

[Figgy44]

What? If you have doubt about keeping him FLA....

Give him back! Give him back! Give him BACK, Please!

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

With Tavares coming off the books or atleast having a significantly lower next contract I'd be fine with the Leafs giving Bennett 7 or 7.5 x 7.

 

[Bank Shot]

He's averaged a ~60 point pace as a Panther while playing in a secondary scoring role. He's an elite all situations 1B/2A center who can literally do it all for a team looking to contend.
As mentioned, Stephenson is probably a good comparable. Hischier contract is probably pretty close too.

Elite in all situations except pk, pp, defensive zone starts, playmaking, and face offs.

I think Bennett is in a really good spot in Florida because they have guys like Barkov, Tkachuk, Reinhart, etc to do the heavy lifting which frees Bennett up to play to his strengths.

If he gets an $8+ million dollar contract with another team, and he's expected to carry a line, I think his flaws get put in the limelight and the team that signs that deal, regrets it.

 

[violaswallet]

I think he's going to get the Montour deal: some team will offer him 7-8.5M depending on how good of a season. Florida will be able to maybe offer 5-5.5M. That's a pretty penny not to take.

If he leaves, we'll still love him forever

 

[DaveG]

I think so too but I’m wondering what the consensus is and who people see as a comparable.

I think he is like JT Miller or Gabe Landeskog but without the production.

Anyone else come to mind?

years back but a comparable might be Jordan Staal when he was traded from Pittsburgh to Carolina. In terms of the change in the cap since then I'd probably expect something around 8-8.5 using that as a basis.