Since 2008 only 4 goalies who have won the cup were a net negative to their team

[Machinehead]

This false narrative needs to die. He and Thompson played 50/50 of the games they were healthy. When they were both injured at the end of the year Brossoit came in and went 8-1 or something and Cassidy went with the hot hand to start the playoffs as Hill was returning from injury. At worst he was a "back up" at that point because most teams aren't rotating goalies in the playoffs. At no point was he ever a 3rd stringer let alone 4th.

Ok so then a backup won the Cup. That's random enough for me.

 

[x Tame Impala]

I think all these “expected goals against” etc…stats aren’t nearly as accurate as you all paint them out to be. They’re just an easy way to give a data point for an argument. I don’t think they’re reflective of much. Hockey is too chaotic and dynamic

 

[Anglesmith]

Binnington and Niemi surprise me.
Niemi being a fairly clear net-positive on goals saved above expected, while Binnington being a slight negative makes me feel like I experienced alternative realities during those playoffs.

Expected goals algorithms are extremely crude, and the idea is that subtleties that actually cause shots to be dangerous or not will even out over a significantly long time.

One playoff run is definitely not enough of a sample to expect much from these stats, so they should be taken with a heavy grain of salt. It's unfortunate that the one presenting them isn't also providing that context.

 

[WATTAGE4451]

He didn't play Vancouver during the blues cup run. Winnipeg/dallas/San jose/Boston.

I meant san jose but for some reason said vancouver

 

[x Tame Impala]

Expected goals algorithms are extremely crude, and the idea is that subtleties that actually cause shots to be dangerous or not will even out over a significantly long time.

One playoff run is definitely not enough of a sample to expect much from these stats, so they should be taken with a heavy grain of salt. It's unfortunate that the one presenting them isn't also providing that context.

They never provide that context. They’re always shown as “hey look! I’ve figured out a new and better way to evaluate goalies”.

Theres too much chance/nuance/subtlety in any given scoring chance. I don’t see the value in high danger zones either. So many looks are completely different from one another regardless of the location.

 

[Master P]

I know some people who would say there were 5.

 

[FMichael]

It’s sometimes hard to remember that Ozzie, while pedestrian on average, he had some pretty great runs in his career.

401 wins is pretty good for a pedestrian

 

[Old Gregg]

"PeNgUiNs GoT gReAt GoAlTeNdInG iN 2009!"

The stats show they got one of the worst goaltending performances among Cup winners in the past 16 years.

Fleury had a rough series against the Caps in 09 but was great the rest of the playoffs. Also made a lot of key saves when needed.

 

[ManofSteel55]

View attachment 882834
2022 avalanche winning the cup when Kuemper was a sieve is amazing. Hill was low-key an mvp last season and I legit feel he might have saved the season against the Oilers.

The Avalanche just absolutely dominating the playoffs with Kuemper's play is amazing. Imagine how dominant they would have been with even average goaltending.

401 wins is pretty good for a pedestrian

On a stacked up team.

 

[Lazlo Hollyfeld]

They never provide that context. They’re always shown as “hey look! I’ve figured out a new and better way to evaluate goalies”.

Theres too much chance/nuance/subtlety in any given scoring chance. I don’t see the value in high danger zones either. So many looks are completely different from one another regardless of the location.

Agreed. And it's my understanding that the stats don't account for the player taking the shot.

In any spot on the ice, there's a huge difference if the shot is taken by Auston Matthews versus say Filip Zadina.

 

[Dennis Reynolds]

Crazy the amount of love MAF gets. He's always been bad when it's mattered. Even when he wins, it's in spite of him, not because of him.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Crazy the amount of love MAF gets. He's always been bad when it's mattered. Even when he wins, it's in spite of him, not because of him.

He is commonly viewed as a five star man despite mediocrity

 

[mr figgles]

Crazy the amount of love MAF gets. He's always been bad when it's mattered. Even when he wins, it's in spite of him, not because of him.

There‘s one really bad 2nd round series dragging his stats down here. I‘d say games 6 and 7 of the finals mattered. He only allowed 2 goals on 50 shots as his team won both games 2-1. I‘d say he was a big part of them winning.

 

[Grifter3511]

401 wins is pretty good for a pedestrian

It's almost MAF level pedstrian.

 

[RooBicks]

These stats are far from perfect.

Tim Thomas felt otherworldly in his run.

Thomas did benefit from being able to be extremely aggressive in his approach because the Bruins (with Chara in particular) were pretty otherworldly when it came to filling and clearing lanes and keeping play to the outside. I suspect he had to make far fewer saves on shots coming across the net than the average goalie that year (not sure if that can be quantified, particularly in 2011). This drove up his save percentage. Furthermore, expected goals reflects the quality of scoring chances, and by minimizing high quality scoring chances and allowing him to see and attack the puck, they would have made it a tad harder for Thomas to push his GSAX to the very high levels we see from some others here.

 

[FMichael]

The Avalanche just absolutely dominating the playoffs with Kuemper's play is amazing. Imagine how dominant they would have been with even average goaltending.


On a stacked up team.

How many netminders have reached 400 wins on a subpar team?

Osgood also played for the Isles and Blues.

 

[FissionFire]

Hence why I will always believe Detroit repeats in '09 if they faced any team other than Pittsburgh again.

They would easily beat Pittsburgh had they not had to face Chicago and get both Datsyuk and Lidstrom badly injured. The Hawks were pretty dirty in that series and it cost Detroit the repeat Cup.

 

[LuGBuG]

Are these stats available for Gigueres 2003 run? Would just be interested to see them compared to these ones.

 

[Thallis]

No, read the graphic. That's per game.

That's still a single goal over 26 games.

 

[Machinehead]

That's still a single goal over 26 games.

Yeah, which is terrible.

Goaltenders get paid to save goals. If they're breaking even and letting in everything expected, they're doing nothing.

 

[Thallis]

Yeah, which is terrible.

Goaltenders get paid to save goals. If they're breaking even and letting in everything expected, they're doing nothing.

Again, that's the difference of a 6-2 game vs a 7-2 game once over 26 games. If they're breaking even they're doing exactly as expected. It's in the name.

 

[Machinehead]

Again, that's the difference of a 6-2 game vs a 7-2 game once over 26 games. If they're breaking even they're doing exactly as expected. It's in the name.

At no other position would you accept breaking even. Forwards and defenseman who can't outscore the other team aren't effective.

An even goals saved above expected would place you 60th in the league in 2023-24. NHL goaltenders actively prevent goals. It's in the name.

 

[Thallis]

At no other position would you accept breaking even. Forwards and defenseman who can't outscore the other team aren't effective.

An even goals saved above expected would place you 60th in the league in 2023-24. NHL goaltenders actively prevent goals. It's in the name.

There are plenty of positions where breaking even is fine. For example, a player on the Oilers' bottom half of the lineup it would be incredible to break even. For anyone against them, if whomever is matching up against the top guys going even is excelling in their job. What is considered doing a good job is context dependent on the situation. All that Blues team needed was average goaltending, and Binnington gave them average goaltending.

If you want to dive deeper, you can also look at the context of when the Expected vs Actual Goals happened and how a lot of the minuses were clumped in a few outliers, but we'll start with baby steps.

 

[Machinehead]

There are plenty of positions where breaking even is fine. For example, a player on the Oilers' bottom half of the lineup it would be incredible to break even. For anyone against them, if whomever is matching up against the top guys going even is excelling in their job. What is considered doing a good job is context dependent on the situation. All that Blues team needed was average goaltending, and Binnington gave them average goaltending.

If you want to dive deeper, you can also look at the context of when the Expected vs Actual Goals happened and how a lot of the minuses were clumped in a few outliers, but we'll start with baby steps.

Yeah, for guys at the bottom of the lineup.

Your starting goaltender plays 60 minutes a game. There's no context where we can't compare him to a 1C or a 1D. He's arguably even more important in a vacuum.

There's no other position where you would look at dead even, and say that it's average. It's replacement level. It's significantly below average.

The biggest misconceptions with analytics are that 1) even is average and 2) replacement level is average.

Do such players exist in the NHL? Absolutely, because there's four line and three pairs. There's one goaltender.

You can bring up context and outliers, and just not agree with what the stat says, that's up to you. Objectively, a GSAx of 0 is terrible. It's just about sub-NHL. About 60 goaltenders are going to outperform that every year.

 

[TruePowerSlave]

No surprise that Kuemper is on "top" of the list.

The Avalanche were so freaking dominant and controlled nearly every game. Didn't matter much who was in goal.