Sign Marner and Tavares before playoffs?

[Confucius]

All sorts of crazy estimates are thrown out, but Forbes last year estimated him at 2m, and reports were that Tkachuk (a Florida player) had the most endorsements in the league. There are lots of players in places other than Toronto that get endorsement income; which again, is still another job.

It is another job but if that job is only available because you play here, makes a difference. I think he wouldn’t get those endorsements anywhere else.

 

[Dekes For Days]

It is another job but if that job is only available because you play here, makes a difference. I think he wouldn’t get those endorsements anywhere else.

It's a job that's available because he's a top tier player in the best league in the world. He would absolutely get endorsements elsewhere. Doing it in Toronto may give him slightly more endorsement earning potential relative to some other places in the league, but it's a volatile source, and Toronto also comes with other financial disadvantages relative to those places.

 

[thewave]

It's a job that's available because he's a top tier player in the best league in the world. He would absolutely get endorsements elsewhere. Doing it in Toronto may give him slightly more endorsement earning potential relative to some other places in the league, but it's a volatile source, and Toronto also comes with other financial disadvantages relative to those places.

Are you suggesting that he would earn the same for endorsements in a small non Hockey market vs Toronto where everyone knows his name? You know they base that stuff on reach right.

 

[Confucius]

Are you suggesting that he would earn the same for endorsements in a small non Hockey market vs Toronto where everyone knows his name? You know they base that stuff on reach right.

I think that’s the same Same reasoning prime uses in not wanting to broadcast the same night as a Leaf game.

 

[Gabriel426]

When everybody has the same 85 million total to spend, how a team allocates it holds no advantage. No different than a team stating our lowest paid player makes 4 million we should win.

Really?

Pretty sure instead of having 47.5mil with AM, MM, Willie, JT and Holmberg and use that on McD-12.5mil, Barkov-10.5, Makar-9mil, Tkachuk-9.5mil and Hyman at 5.5mil, think the Leafs are much better.

 

[ToneDog]

Really?

Pretty sure instead of having 47.5mil with AM, MM, Willie, JT and Holmberg and use that on McD-12.5mil, Barkov-10.5, Makar-9mil, Tkachuk-9.5mil and Hyman at 5.5mil, think the Leafs are much better.

The Leafs core are making $54.25m. Would the team be better if they were making $40-$45m or as you say with better players for the same money?

 

[Confucius]

Really?

Pretty sure instead of having 47.5mil with AM, MM, Willie, JT and Holmberg and use that on McD-12.5mil, Barkov-10.5, Makar-9mil, Tkachuk-9.5mil and Hyman at 5.5mil, think the Leafs are much better.

May well be better but unfortunately you just can’t snap your fingers and get all those guys here at the same time. And on those deals. That would be a miracle

 

[Gabriel426]

May well be better but unfortunately you just can’t snap your fingers and get all those guys here at the same time. And on those deals. That would be a miracle

The point is cap allocations, you were saying there is no advantage of how a team allocated the money. Which I disagree with.

The Leafs core are making $54.25m. Would the team be better if they were making $40-$45m or as you say with better players for the same money?

Pretty much as I doubt McD, Makar, Barkov and Tkachuk are not better big four than our four.

 

[Confucius]

The point is cap allocations, you were saying there is no advantage of how a team allocated the money. Which I disagree with.


Pretty much as I doubt McD, Makar, Barkov and Tkachuk are not better big four than our four.

I give you 85 million you build your team, I build mine. Spend how you wish neither has an advantage. Overpay miscalculate and use hindsight ofcourse the differences arise.

 

[Ports]

Why not wait to sign both of them ? JT’s not going anywhere and if they flame out in the playoffs again they can’t keep (over) paying three skilled but soft forwards who don’t get it done when it counts. Even if Marner’s ask is reasonable at around $12M and JT takes $5M which will be below market value given his scoring so far this season, they’ll have $50M or about 55% of their cap tied up in five players none of whom can be counted on at playoff time. Nine years of running it back is 4 years too many.

Sounds good to me

As if Marner is taking less than Nylander.

 

[Ports]

I came in here thinking "no way, jose". But I actually think it would be fine to extend them both before the playoffs.

I'd put pen to paper for Tavares any time he wants. If the number is right, then the timing doesn't matter too much to me. Sooner could actually be better, since his stock is only going up with his strong season. For Marner? What happens if he has no deal until after the playoffs? Think it through.

Sign him now and he rocks the playoffs? The deal is probably less than if they had waited.
Sign him now and he flops in the playoffs? You can still trade him.

Hold off and he rocks the playoffs? Now he has all the negotiating power in the world. You'll overpay worse.
Hold off and he flops in the playoffs? You risk losing him for nothing as a UFA.

Whether Marner has a good playoffs or not some team will offer him $13M+ so it’s not just about how much he wants. It’s can the Leafs win a cup having so much money tied up in three forwards who never get it done.

 

[Ports]

If Marner wins the Connie and the Bud's win the SC. Then what

Then who cares but we both know that’s not happening.

 

[Ports]

Say Toronto sells nothing at all, just simply offers a bit less than a competitor, knowing that Marner would stand to lose millions each year in endorsements going with the competitor. All else equal, how exactly do you see that playing out?

I don’t think it will come down to money. For the Leafs it will come down to how well does the team and the player do in the playoffs and for Marner it will be about does he want to continue to be a Leaf and face a lot of justified criticism if they flame out again and whether he sees himself winning a cup in Toronto. The money will be there if they go on a deep playoff run and if they don’t there may be mutual agreement that’s it time to move on.

 

[Dekes For Days]

Are you suggesting that he would earn the same for endorsements in a small non Hockey market vs Toronto where everyone knows his name?

He may earn less in endorsements in a "small non hockey market", but there are a lot of places other than Toronto where he could earn a similar amount, and those "small non hockey markets" would have other financial benefits relative to Toronto.

 

[therealkoho]

Then who cares but we both know that’s not happening.

Longshot for sure, but you know what they say about possibility.

 

[Gabriel426]

I give you 85 million you build your team, I build mine. Spend how you wish neither has an advantage. Overpay miscalculate and use hindsight ofcourse the differences arise.

Disagree as the advantage will always be to the person who doesn’t overpaid for players.

Diff is that if a player is a 2mil player and overpaid by 2 mil, it is easier to get rid of that contract compare to a 9mil player being over paid by 2mil.

GMs choose to overpaid players hoping they will outperform their career best in the future or help their team win a cup or get close or bring fans into the building…. As most teams in the NHL’s goal is to actually get fans and earn money instead of building a Cup winner.

 

[keonsbitterness]

Are you suggesting that he would earn the same for endorsements in a small non Hockey market vs Toronto where everyone knows his name? You know they base that stuff on reach right.

He would definitely earn less in a non-hockey market. In fact there would be...

 

[Antropovsky]

Marner line xgf and xga with and without Matthews.

Tavares line xgf and xga with and without Marner.

Interesting stuff.

Marner Stats:

With Matthews (266 minutes):
- xGF: 16.79
- xGA: 12.89
- xGF/60: 3.79
- xGA/60: 2.91

Without Matthews (229 minutes):
- xGF: 6.68
- xGA: 8.28
- xGF/60: 1.75
- xGA/60: 2.17

Tavares Stats:

With Marner (146 minutes):
- xGF: 4.69
- xGA: 5.46
- xGF/60: 1.93
- xGA/60: 2.24

Without Marner (331 minutes):
- xGF: 15.63
- xGA: 12.82
- xGF/60: 2.83
- xGA/60: 2.32

 

[arso40]

Marner line xgf and xga with and without Matthews.

Tavares line xgf and xga with and without Marner.

Interesting stuff.

Marner Stats:

With Matthews (266 minutes):
- xGF: 16.79
- xGA: 12.89
- xGF/60: 3.79
- xGA/60: 2.91

Without Matthews (229 minutes):
- xGF: 6.68
- xGA: 8.28
- xGF/60: 1.75
- xGA/60: 2.17

Tavares Stats:

With Marner (146 minutes):
- xGF: 4.69
- xGA: 5.46
- xGF/60: 1.93
- xGA/60: 2.24

Without Marner (331 minutes):
- xGF: 15.63
- xGA: 12.82
- xGF/60: 2.83
- xGA/60: 2.32

That’s expecting what about regular gf ga

 

[Maple Leaf]

He would definitely earn less in a non-hockey market. In fact there would be...

Do women know about shrinkage?

 

[Antropovsky]

That’s expecting what about regular gf ga

Tavares Stats:

With Marner (146 minutes):
- xGF: 4.69
- xGA: 5.46
- GF: 9
- GA: 3
- xGF/60: 1.93
- xGA/60: 2.24
- GF/60: 3.70
- GA/60: 1.23

Without Marner (331 minutes):
- xGF: 15.63
- xGA: 12.82
- GF: 17
- GA: 9
- xGF/60: 2.83
- xGA/60: 2.32
- GF/60: 3.08
- GA/60: 1.63

Marner Stats:

With Matthews (266 minutes):
- xGF: 16.79
- xGA: 12.89
- GF: 14
- GA: 14
- xGF/60: 3.79
- xGA/60: 2.91
- GF/60: 3.16
- GA/60: 3.16

Without Matthews (229 minutes):
- xGF: 6.68
- xGA: 8.28
- GF: 10
- GA: 7
- xGF/60: 1.75
- xGA/60: 2.17
- GF/60: 2.62
- GA/60: 1.83

Graphs:

 

[nuck]

The max I would offer JT is the Tanev contract (6yr/4.5m aav), otherwise tell him to take a hike.

A ppg would have made JT 12th in scoring for all centers in the league last season so that's ahead of a whole bunch of club's #`1s.

Stamkos got 8 x 4 coming off a -21 season. That has got o be close to market value if Tavares scores this way all season. I know some people would love to have him eat value because he was overpaid on his last deal but who else has ever done that? I would think anything under 8 x 4 is a bargain for a ppg center. Thats still a lot of money but if your options are Brock Nelson and Matt Duchene what do you do if he does take a hike? My guess is Duchene will sign for well under $8M but I would be surprised if Dallas let him get to market.

I'm not saying they need to resign Tavares because they haven't won jack with him but the idea that the club has real leverage to make him take any discount is not true. If he has a strong year he will have fifteen landing spots. If they would rather pay Nelson 6.5 x 4 to be their #2 guy that is possibly their second best option. But lets see what Tavares' year looks like first.

 

[HolyCrap]

Do women know about shrinkage?

The few that have been with me do.