Si Weekes Houston Atlanta Leading NHL Expansion List

[AlwaysSunnyInTampa]

No bridge is ever burned so badly that it cannot be rebuilt with enough money. Phoenix isn't going to be ready next year, or in five, or perhaps not even in ten, but eventually, someone will decide that putting a team back in Phoenix is a good idea, whether that's Ishbia looking for a second tenant to strengthen his case for a new arena when Footprint reaches the end of its useful life, or someone we don't yet know thinking they'd quite like an anchor tenant for a mixed-use development.

Well, the bridge I was referring to was Glendale more than anything. Like Portland, someone's gotta buy that billion dollar team and then negotiate with another owner about an arena. Not impossible, but the more time that passes, the more expensive a team becomes. At some point people are gonna get priced out and I'm wondering if it hasn't happened to QC yet

 

[aqib]

Thing is, someone's gotta actually buy the billion dollar expansion team AND negotiate with the Blazers. It's not impossible but I don't have a clear picture of the expansion schedule for teams 35 and 36

It would most likely be someone owning both teams OR the two teams going in together on a new arena or a renovation of Moda Center (I don't know what its like).

 

[AlwaysSunnyInTampa]

It would most likely be someone owning both teams OR the two teams going in together on a new arena or a renovation of Moda Center (I don't know what its like).

Well that's good news for Phoenix because Ishiba (might?) be able to swing that. It's probably their most realistic path forward

 

[dj4aces]

Houston and Atlanta are slam dunks that make too much sense. Beyond that it gets really interesting really quickly because if the NHL doesn't consider Quebec City to be a viable option then your options are all Western Conference with someone being pushed East. Then that leaves what? Phoenix and San Diego?

Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like San Diego is gonna have an arena ready to go in just a few years with their Midway Rising project. Phoenix not so much

I think the question of QC's viability comes from its low population and small corporate sector, even when compared to Winnipeg. This is even more observable when it comes to the cost of attending games. As I've said before, I fully support a return to QC, but there are absolutely challenges.

In Houston (~7.4m) and Atlanta (~6.3m), you have a large population. and a large corporate base. There's lots of marketing opportunities, and most importantly, there's the potential of growth. QC doesn't really have any of that. There's a corporate presence, sure, but is it enough? There's a smaller population in QC than in Winnipeg, and it's also growing slower than Winnipeg. Finally, there's a near zero potential for growth. The league wants the line to go up -- in growth and in revenue. QC would immediately impact revenue, but not market growth.

With regard to Phoenix, the league wants to be there, so much so that they basically said "we'll be back" on their way out of town. *When* they'll be back is the question, and it'll be something we learn more about as time goes on. I don't see a reality where San Diego joins the league before Phoenix, if they join at all. Most likely, the new arena there is for the Gulls and other events, not for a hypothetical NHL team.

 

[Tawnos]

I think the question of QC's viability comes from its low population and small corporate sector, even when compared to Winnipeg. This is even more observable when it comes to the cost of attending games. As I've said before, I fully support a return to QC, but there are absolutely challenges.

In Houston (~7.4m) and Atlanta (~6.3m), you have a large population. and a large corporate base. There's lots of marketing opportunities, and most importantly, there's the potential of growth. QC doesn't really have any of that. There's a corporate presence, sure, but is it enough? There's a smaller population in QC than in Winnipeg, and it's also growing slower than Winnipeg. Finally, there's a near zero potential for growth. The league wants the line to go up -- in growth and in revenue. QC would immediately impact revenue, but not market growth.

With regard to Phoenix, the league wants to be there, so much so that they basically said "we'll be back" on their way out of town. *When* they'll be back is the question, and it'll be something we learn more about as time goes on. I don't see a reality where San Diego joins the league before Phoenix, if they join at all. Most likely, the new arena there is for the Gulls and other events, not for a hypothetical NHL team.

The San Diego people do want it to be for an NHL or NBA team. It's a stated goal of theirs. I believe there are multiple versions of the arena plans dependent on if they get one. There hasn't been any news about it in a year though.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Houston and Atlanta are slam dunks that make too much sense. Beyond that it gets really interesting really quickly because if the NHL doesn't consider Quebec City to be a viable option then your options are all Western Conference with someone being pushed East. Then that leaves what? Phoenix and San Diego?

Correct me if I'm wrong but it looks like San Diego is gonna have an arena ready to go in just a few years with their Midway Rising project. Phoenix not so much

I'm shocked Austin isn't part of the conversation (understood it takes a willing investor/owner). Fasting growing metro over the past decade, TONS of corporate cash, no competing pro team, just UT.

 

[Voight]

Well that's good news for Phoenix because Ishiba (might?) be able to swing that. It's probably their most realistic path forward

Hes currently too busy running the Suns into the ground.

 

[Tawnos]

I'm shocked Austin isn't part of the conversation (understood it takes a willing investor/owner). Fasting growing metro over the past decade, TONS of corporate cash, no competing pro team, just UT.

This is completely unverifiable and a bit of a grapevine thing... but I'm friends with someone who has contacts within the league, and according to him the NHL absolutely loves the Austin market.

 

[TheLegend]

I think the question of QC's viability comes from its low population and small corporate sector, even when compared to Winnipeg. This is even more observable when it comes to the cost of attending games. As I've said before, I fully support a return to QC, but there are absolutely challenges.

In Houston (~7.4m) and Atlanta (~6.3m), you have a large population. and a large corporate base. There's lots of marketing opportunities, and most importantly, there's the potential of growth. QC doesn't really have any of that. There's a corporate presence, sure, but is it enough? There's a smaller population in QC than in Winnipeg, and it's also growing slower than Winnipeg. Finally, there's a near zero potential for growth. The league wants the line to go up -- in growth and in revenue. QC would immediately impact revenue, but not market growth.

With regard to Phoenix, the league wants to be there, so much so that they basically said "we'll be back" on their way out of town. *When* they'll be back is the question, and it'll be something we learn more about as time goes on. I don't see a reality where San Diego joins the league before Phoenix, if they join at all. Most likely, the new arena there is for the Gulls and other events, not for a hypothetical NHL team.

Phoenix is going to be a while.

That said.... there's a live video podcast tomorrow with the former PHNX hockey staff and the President of the Maricopa County BOS looking to set up a committee to get the NHL back in AZ is supposed to be on.

Hoping we hear if there's any progress on that front, but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Pompeius Magnus]

In a way, there's no real rush or any real pressure even, as far as Phoenix is concerned. The league has made it very clear they like the market and would much rather have a team there than not. A strong plan with an arena deal in place is pretty much guaranteed to be approved by the league. Now it's just a question of finding mister right, whether it's the current group working on it or somebody else. It will take some time, but time is on their side.

 

[Voight]

Dont believe the Moody Center was designed with hockey in mind so a new arena would be needed.

Even if it was, it would likely be the smallest arena by a significant margin.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Dont believe the Moody Center was designed with hockey in mind so a new arena would be needed.

Even if it was, it would likely be the smallest arena by a significant margin.

Definitely. Says basketball only fits just over 10K. That said, I can't imagine any investor wouldn't build their own arena for the city's only pro team.

 

[dj4aces]

Phoenix is going to be a while.

That said.... there's a live video podcast tomorrow with the former PHNX hockey staff and the President of the Maricopa County BOS looking to set up a committee to get the NHL back in AZ is supposed to be on.

Hoping we hear if there's any progress on that front, but I'm not holding my breath.

It sure will, yeah. There's a lot of groundwork to do. But I simply don't see San Diego getting one, and certainly not before Phoenix.

It'll be interesting to hear what the Board of Supervisors says, if not now, then in the future.

 

[aqib]

I think the question of QC's viability comes from its low population and small corporate sector, even when compared to Winnipeg. This is even more observable when it comes to the cost of attending games. As I've said before, I fully support a return to QC, but there are absolutely challenges.

In Houston (~7.4m) and Atlanta (~6.3m), you have a large population. and a large corporate base. There's lots of marketing opportunities, and most importantly, there's the potential of growth. QC doesn't really have any of that. There's a corporate presence, sure, but is it enough? There's a smaller population in QC than in Winnipeg, and it's also growing slower than Winnipeg. Finally, there's a near zero potential for growth. The league wants the line to go up -- in growth and in revenue. QC would immediately impact revenue, but not market growth.

With regard to Phoenix, the league wants to be there, so much so that they basically said "we'll be back" on their way out of town. *When* they'll be back is the question, and it'll be something we learn more about as time goes on. I don't see a reality where San Diego joins the league before Phoenix, if they join at all. Most likely, the new arena there is for the Gulls and other events, not for a hypothetical NHL team.

When we look at the skyrocketing valuations over the last few years, I am not sure market size is as important as we used to think. We always talked about hockey is more gate driven than any other sport and local market matters so much more, etc. But looking at what franchise values have done, its not like local revenues have increased by that much. The Senators sold for twice as much as the Islanders 7 years earlier and more than twice what the Hurricanes sold for 5 years earlier. I doubt the Senators have twice the local revenues the other teams did. You're talking about $3 billion between the expansion fee and arena for the Thrashers. Even if ASG wanted them out of the building someone could have bought them and played at Gas South for 2-3 years while building a new arena and it would have cost $400ish million. You're telling me that Atlanta is 8x as valuable now.

It goes back to my previous point about there being other income sources we don't have the numbers on,

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

When we look at the skyrocketing valuations over the last few years, I am not sure market size is as important as we used to think. We always talked about hockey is more gate driven than any other sport and local market matters so much more, etc. But looking at what franchise values have done, its not like local revenues have increased by that much. The Senators sold for twice as much as the Islanders 7 years earlier and more than twice what the Hurricanes sold for 5 years earlier. I doubt the Senators have twice the local revenues the other teams did. You're talking about $3 billion between the expansion fee and arena for the Thrashers. Even if ASG wanted them out of the building someone could have bought them and played at Gas South for 2-3 years while building a new arena and it would have cost $400ish million. You're telling me that Atlanta is 8x as valuable now.

It goes back to my previous point about there being other income sources we don't have the numbers on,

Team valuations definitely play a big factor, but there are other on-going revenue streams like corporate money, gate revenues, and media deals that come into play. There's a reason why Chipman was asking the corporate community to step up and there's a reason why there's no pro teams in Myrtle Beach. No matter how passionate a fanbase is, getting the constant cashflow to keep a franchise operating smoothly in a small market every year is difficult.

 

[dj4aces]

When we look at the skyrocketing valuations over the last few years, I am not sure market size is as important as we used to think. We always talked about hockey is more gate driven than any other sport and local market matters so much more, etc. But looking at what franchise values have done, its not like local revenues have increased by that much. The Senators sold for twice as much as the Islanders 7 years earlier and more than twice what the Hurricanes sold for 5 years earlier. I doubt the Senators have twice the local revenues the other teams did. You're talking about $3 billion between the expansion fee and arena for the Thrashers. Even if ASG wanted them out of the building someone could have bought them and played at Gas South for 2-3 years while building a new arena and it would have cost $400ish million. You're telling me that Atlanta is 8x as valuable now.

It goes back to my previous point about there being other income sources we don't have the numbers on,

The way I'm thinking about market size, it's a little simplistic, but it makes sense. A market of 900k people will have fewer people (and fewer companies) willing and able to buy tickets than a market of 6+ million people. There's fewer corporations and a much smaller community in a market of 900k people.

Back in 1983, you could buy a lower bowl ticket at Colisee for CA$17.50. In 2025 dollars, that's just about $50. Then, tack on the value of the CAD compared to the USD, the rate hikes that exceed the rate of inflation, and combine that with stagnant wages, and you have a problem.

This is not to say QC can't reasonably support a team from a business standpoint, nor is it to say I don't think QC should ever return. My record is very clear on how I feel about the Nordiques, and maybe some nostalgia sprinkled in there too. It's simply a very big challenge that the market will have to overcome. With a NHL team will come NHL prices, and I'm just not sure a market smaller than the current smallest in the league can weather that storm, no matter how passionate the fans are.

 

[KevFu]

Youre gonna have to resurrect the southeast conference if you do that

Atlanta
Carolina
Florida
Nashville
Tampa Bay
Washington

Oh the horror of having a division with less than 8 teams and the Florida teams not paired with Canada right?

I mean... yes? NOW it would be a lot better, but when they did it in the 1990s, the idea of putting 4 "new" franchises in the same division with only one long-tenured member (and not a very prestigious one) was TERRIBLE for business. Same with the ANA, SJ, PHX, DAL being with the Kings.

They weren't added into the league fully by schedule. It was like they were an "annex" because they were only playing like 45 games against the historical NHL brands and 37 vs new brands that didn't exist 15 years ago.