Si Weekes Houston Atlanta Leading NHL Expansion List

[dj4aces]

I'm pretty sure the Astrodome has negative value these days - that is it costs more to maintain then it is worth, and the cost to demolish is worth more than the land. So no problem selling it for $1, but who would want it?

It's also far too massive to convert to a hockey arena. Again - you'd need to tear it down and rebuild. Which goes back to my first point.

Now would Houston want to try and subsidize the demolition/reconstruction of the Astromedome? Absolutely. But I think that starts to run afoul of the deal they have with the Rockets/Fertitta and the Toyota Center.

I think you're probably right on all fronts here. However, I also feel like if that second Houston group wants it bad enough and has the money to throw down for demolition and reconstruction, the only thing that'd stop them is Fertitta actually committing to dropping the $1bn+ to buy an expansion franchise.

I know, that if is a very big one, but stranger things have happened.

 

[aqib]

I'm pretty sure the Astrodome has negative value these days - that is it costs more to maintain then it is worth, and the cost to demolish is worth more than the land. So no problem selling it for $1, but who would want it?

It's also far too massive to convert to a hockey arena. Again - you'd need to tear it down and rebuild. Which goes back to my first point.

Now would Houston want to try and subsidize the demolition/reconstruction of the Astromedome? Absolutely. But I think that starts to run afoul of the deal they have with the Rockets/Fertitta and the Toyota Center.

So this was the most recent proposal for the Astrodome. A $1 billion proposal is the latest plan to refurbish and save the iconic Houston Astrodome

Could an arena be part of it? Sure. Now would someone be interested in doing the full redevelopment of the building? Maybe. If the Coyotes were willing to spend $2 billíon+ on a development in Tempe maybe someone spends that to do a whole development inside the Astrodome.
It's just an issue of what would pass the smell test if Fertitta wanted to challenge it in court.

 

[FlyguyOX]

This applies equally to Anson, too.

I am highly skeptical of Anson's bid.

 

[Greatzsky 99]

I suppose that's one way to do it. As per CNBC, The Stars are valued at $1.9bn. For Atlanta, one could get that value from Nashville ($1.5bn) and/or Carolina ($1.3bn).

Fertitta balked at the $650m figure in 2018 too, though. According to Forbes, the Stars were valued at $525m. What's interesting though, is the Forbes link has a league average of $630m listed as well. The expansion fee for Seattle was $650m, so a little more than league average. For context, the Canucks were valued at $735m in 2018.

For 2024, the average franchise value is $1.91bn. So, IF that's the ballpark figure for expansion fees, and IF the league plans to announce expansion in June, I could see the asking price at $2bn per franchise. It sounds high, but if it's Fertitta, he's gotta know that number isn't coming down, and thus needs to shit or get off the pot.

In hindsight, would have been really great business to get a team for 650, 100 mil per year increase(at least)
I dont know much about Fertitta, but he seems to have lost at least 600, cause he wanted 150.

 

[dj4aces]

In hindsight, would have been really great business to get a team for 650, 100 mil per year increase(at least)
I dont know much about Fertitta, but he seems to have lost at least 600, cause he wanted 150.

Oh absolutely. The league has demonstrated, time and again, that they will move on from a prospective owner if they're not willing to pay, so I seriously hope the other group(s) in Houston are viable and have a solid plan to making it work... whether that be a barn in the suburbs or renovating an existing structure.

Houston is a vibrant and diverse market. I sincerely hope, at the end of the day, they end up with a franchise.

 

[GKJ]

I suppose that's one way to do it. As per CNBC, The Stars are valued at $1.9bn. For Atlanta, one could get that value from Nashville ($1.5bn) and/or Carolina ($1.3bn).

Fertitta balked at the $650m figure in 2018 too, though. According to Forbes, the Stars were valued at $525m. What's interesting though, is the Forbes link has a league average of $630m listed as well. The expansion fee for Seattle was $650m, so a little more than league average. For context, the Canucks were valued at $735m in 2018.

For 2024, the average franchise value is $1.91bn. So, IF that's the ballpark figure for expansion fees, and IF the league plans to announce expansion in June, I could see the asking price at $2bn per franchise. It sounds high, but if it's Fertitta, he's gotta know that number isn't coming down, and thus needs to shit or get off the pot.

I don’t think there going to announce anything in that sense. There’s not going to anything that officially opens the process. It’s ongoing right now, and it’s simply a matter of who can come up with the money and building first (or second). They will announce something when they have owners who have buildings.

I hope we get both teams at the same time though as an actual expansion draft would be pretty fun. We haven’t had anything like it in over a quarter century in any sport.

 

[Greatzsky 99]

Oh absolutely. The league has demonstrated, time and again, that they will move on from a prospective owner if they're not willing to pay, so I seriously hope the other group(s) in Houston are viable and have a solid plan to making it work... whether that be a barn in the suburbs or renovating an existing structure.

Houston is a vibrant and diverse market. I sincerely hope, at the end of the day, they end up with a franchise.

I hope so to, the markets are huge, Houston, Atlanta and Phoenix(Yes that Phoenix) would work.
Look at Panthers, when a dedicated and caring owner came in, it was, what was it 10 years ago when
Panthers seemed doomed with abysmal attendance.

 

[Digital Kid]

re: Houston

You know what type of owners/groups/cities I want in the NHL?

Ones that actually want to be there, not having to be forced or coerced to bid for a team.

 

[dj4aces]

I hope so to, the markets are huge, Houston, Atlanta and Phoenix(Yes that Phoenix) would work.
Look at Panthers, when a dedicated and caring owner came in, it was, what was it 10 years ago when
Panthers seemed doomed with abysmal attendance.

On the Panthers, it did take a little while to convince the market that he was willing to do whatever it takes to make the team a success. But now they've won a cup and are vying for another. It demonstrates exactly that a dedicated owner can make any team a success. I'm truly happy for the Panthers and their fans. I know some folks still question it, but I hope this success goes to prove that the NHL works there. I'm looking forward to seeing if Atlanta, Houston, and Phoenix all have those dedicated owners and what they do with their franchises to bring a cup home in short order.

 

[BKIslandersFan]

re: Houston

You know what type of owners/groups/cities I want in the NHL?

Ones that actually want to be there, not having to be forced or coerced to bid for a team.

No one is being coerced. Fertita wants a team, he just does not agree with the price.

 

[LadyStanley]

 

[lakeshirts37]

yea and the NHL has so far has not been interested in expanding again so its a total moot point until the NHL wants to expand.

They absolutely want to expand

 

[SirJW]

Is expansion the only business model for the NHL?

 

[GreenHornet]

In other news, water is wet. And when you cool that water below 32 degrees, it becomes ice.

In all seriousness, I don't think there's anything here that we haven't figured out already.

 

[Voight]

Is expansion the only business model for the NHL?

Ponzi scheme

 

[bv29]

If league gets to 36 teams I hope Quebec Nordiques will be on of them.

 

[aqib]

If league gets to 36 teams I hope Quebec Nordiques will be on of them.

So if we assume Atlanta and Houston are 33 and 34. If QC is #35 who is #36?

 

[waitin425]

Enough with expansion. 16 and 16 is enough. Any more will start to water down the product.

Atlanta and Houston can get in line for relocation spots.

Still wish Quebec City was on the radar...but oh well.

 

[AtlantaWhaler]

Enough with expansion. 16 and 16 is enough. Any more will start to water down the product.

Atlanta and Houston can get in line for relocation spots.

Still wish Quebec City was on the radar...but oh well.

Apparently, Atlanta and Houston each have 3 billion reasons why they can skip that line.

 

[waitin425]

Apparently, Atlanta and Houston each have 3 billion reasons why they can skip that line.

3 Billion is short sighted if you water down your product and lose in the long run. I guess they think it is a long term win. Meh. Im just a fan.

 

[LadyStanley]

Houston almost sure bet for expansion. First story. Might being in 2 franchises, staggered.

 

[ponder719]

So if we assume Atlanta and Houston are 33 and 34. If QC is #35 who is #36?

QC being anywhere in the next 4 is no lock (though I keep saying, if I win a billion dollar lottery, I'm taking half to two-thirds of that money, finding someone to put me in touch with PKP, and seeing what I can do to become Quebec's favorite American.)

Quebec's main advantage is that other than Atlanta, the Eastern TZ is VERY tightly packed. Your post-Atlanta options are probably Quebec, Hamilton/Toronto 2 (IF you can resolve the payoffs to Buffalo and Toronto), and then you're down to fairly unappealing choices like Virginia Beach, Hartford, Indianapolis, or a second team in Ohio, all of which seem like things the league would be less prepared to do. I'd think they'd be prepared to consider Nashville to the Eastern Conference and adding more Western teams.

Out West, you're looking at Houston, obviously, and the league wants Phoenix, when they can straighten the situation out there. That'll take more time for the air to clear, of course. Beyond that, San Diego seems plausible, Kansas City has a building and needs an owner, you could reasonably put a team in Portland, Milwaukee could be elevated to that level in time, you could theoretically put a team in West Central Texas as well (Austin or San Antonio), then you get into the longshots like New Orleans and Sacramento, but that feels like trying to cram an NHL team into an AHL city.

If I were to put money on it, 35 and 36 are two of San Diego, Quebec City, and Phoenix, and I don't know for sure which one's going to be left without a seat. Whoever that is, they're a likely option for when the league moves towards 40 teams, but now we're talking expansion plans for 20-40 years down the road, easy, and if it's the longer end of that time frame, I may not end up seeing how all that plays out.

 

[voyageur]

So if we assume Atlanta and Houston are 33 and 34. If QC is #35 who is #36?

I don't think the NHL goes beyond 34. It's going for 2 top 10 U.S metropolises, to expand the footprint, but it doesn't need to water down the product with 36 teams. Besides after 34 I think there are still some markets out there, that 10 years down the road, by the time Phoenix gets a new arena, will be feeling some market pressure on their own franchises. For Quebec City, if the cost of a franchise now is speculatively $1.5 billion U.S dollars, is there anyone in the region who has over $2 billion Canadian to throw around for a hockey team? With the Canadian dollar looking weaker with every move Trump makes?

I think Quebec's only hope of a franchise is that Ottawa stalls out on building an arena in Le Breton, because of the greasy politics of Ottawa. Where Andlauer would have to choose between either Hamilton or QC, who already have arenas built, for relocation.

 

[aqib]

I don't think the NHL goes beyond 34. It's going for 2 top 10 U.S metropolises, to expand the footprint, but it doesn't need to water down the product with 36 teams. Besides after 34 I think there are still some markets out there, that 10 years down the road, by the time Phoenix gets a new arena, will be feeling some market pressure on their own franchises. For Quebec City, if the cost of a franchise now is speculatively $1.5 billion U.S dollars, is there anyone in the region who has over $2 billion Canadian to throw around for a hockey team? With the Canadian dollar looking weaker with every move Trump makes?

I think Quebec's only hope of a franchise is that Ottawa stalls out on building an arena in Le Breton, because of the greasy politics of Ottawa. Where Andlauer would have to choose between either Hamilton or QC, who already have arenas built, for relocation.

As team values keep rising you're going to see fewer one owner situations, even if one owner is the face. Ryan Smith is referred to as the owner of the Jazz and UHC, but Smith Entertainment Group has many partners. His net worth is $2.6 billion, which wouldn't be enough to buy two teams.

So if Quebec City got a team odds are there would be other investors. Also there is no rule that the person would have to be from Quebec. Karmanos had said in the past that he would be interested in investing in a QC team. Now I given that he is 82 I doubt he would follow through, but that's just an example of a guy who might buy a stake even without ties to the area. Another thing is that he was in on a Tampa expansion team and had visited Vegas before picking Carolina and said that Vegas would eventually get a team. So he does have a good eye for markets.

 

[GreenHornet]

Houston almost sure bet for expansion. First story. Might being in 2 franchises, staggered.

Bringing in two franchises (say, Atlanta and Houston in some order) staggered to debut at least two years apart makes a lot of sense. Logistics and who goes first would obviously depend on which city (and group) is able to secure a building earlier.

If the Toyota Center is available and ready to go (either as a permanent or temporary home), that would obviously put Houston in front. If that isn't the case for whatever reason, I think that would likely put Atlanta in the lead, especially if the Krause group gets the bid, since it appears that group is ready to put shovels in the ground as soon as they're given the word by the NHL.

So, just for the sake of this conversation, let's say that Toyota Center IS available (for either Fertitta or Friedken) and the NHL is ready to announce by this summer (assuming the new CBA gets wrapped up by then, as some observers say is possible). Is it possible that, assuming either Fertitta decides to pony up enough to satisfy the BoG on the expansion fee or Friedken can negotiate a lease, either group can put together the necessary hockey ops infrastructure in a year to be able to take the ice as soon as the 2026-27 season?

If so, I can see a scenario in which Houston enters for 2026-27, followed by Atlanta in 2028-29, since the conventional thinking is that three years would be the safest timeline for shovels going in the ground to arena completion. Plus, Krause has been on record saying he'd like his expansion team (if he gets one) to begin play in 2028-29. But would two years be enough of a gap of the two teams' debut for the NHL's liking?