Rumor: Should the CBJ pursue Elias Pettersson?

[NotWendell]

I’m fine with rolling with what we’ve got.

 

[majormajor]

I think you are going to be shocked at what future cap hits are. That 11.6 is going to look good even at current production 4 years down the road let alone in 2032.

If 11.6m is going to look good for EP's current production, 31 pts in 41 games, then what do you think these players will make on their next deals?

Werenski - 54 pts in 50 games
Marchenko - 53 pts in 50 games
Voronkov - 33 pts in 41 games
KJ - 31 pts in 36 games


15m-20m each?

I'm actually thinking in terms of percentage of the cap. Pettersson's cap hit will still be over 10% of the salary cap in four years, when the cap should be about $104m. That's still a big problem if he's not back to being a 90+ pt player.

 

[VT]

even if sillinger is the "perfect" third line center (he's not) a fantilli-monahan-sillinger trio down the middle isn't nearly as good as pettersson-fantilli-monahan in the long run.

compare that to:

​

chinakhov - pettersson - johnson​

voronkov - monahan - marchenko​

jenner - fantilli - xxx​

zar - danforth - olivier​

​

where xxx could be:

• a top prospect (del bel belluz or brindley)
• a gus nyquist type deadline add
• an under-the-radar UFA next year (a la marchessault/verhaeghe)

that's two top scoring lines, a third line center who should grow into carrying his own line, and boone jenner in a role where he can go all-out on every shift.

1. if you want Pettersson, part with one of the trio of Fantilli/Johnson/Marchenko + Voronkov. So two lines are weakened by two quality players and Petterrson is no Crosby.
2. don't know what's the point of putting Fantilli on the 3rd line.
3. if you watch the SC winners, the third line was like classic forchecking, played hard. Of course she had to be able to attack. For me the benchmark is the Coleman - Gourde - Goodrow line.

They can want that til the cows come home, but if no team is offering anything close to that, then they're stuck with the pieces they want to move. The point is that they're underwhelmed with their offers. We don't need to outbid ourselves and hand them the moon.

We can give them a year, they will not agree to the offer as proposed.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

No I would say he isn't very good the way he's playing right now. We could easily have a couple better centers than the current EP.

this asserts that:

1. fantilli being a point per game player over his last 12 games is a better indicator of success than pettersson being a point per game player over his last 312 games
2. monahan is less of an injury concern than pettersson (despite being older and having missed far more games per season)
3. sillinger/DBB are better bets to far surpass their projection than pettersson is to keep his current form (let alone rebound to what he showed for 400 games before this year)

assertion #1 in particular is striking to me considering that you've spent the last few months on this board saying that fantilli isn't even a center!

Or some time before 2032 - this is a long term bet we're talking about.

taking this at face value, you're saying that the trade can only be judged by the state of pettersson's play seven years from now, and not from the total value he would provide over the next seven years.

given how pettersson has looked defensively so far in his career, I'd imagine that having him as a 33-year-old 3C in 2032 wouldn't actually be a problem!

What I have in mind is the constant debates on HF about what's wrong with EP.

yeah because if there's two groups of people whose hockey opinions you should take at face value, it's HF posters and Vancouver Canucks fans.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

1. if you want Pettersson, part with one of the trio of Fantilli/Johnson/Marchenko + Voronkov. So two lines are weakened by two quality players and Petterrson is no Crosby.

real life isn't NHL25. pettersson is a distressed asset. their GM himself even said to temper expectations for a trade return, and the multiple sources (including the athletic yesterday) said that sillinger + picks would be the foundation of the trade.

2. don't know what's the point of putting Fantilli on the 3rd line.

if fantilli has to be in the top six, he can be swapped with chinakhov, making jenner the 3C.

3. if you watch the SC winners, the third line was like classic forchecking, played hard. Of course she had to be able to attack. For me the benchmark is the Coleman - Gourde - Goodrow line.

the third lines on the last two cup winners:

• florida: luostarinen-lundell-tarasenko
• vegas: howden-karlsson-amadio

I'd wager that a "jenner-fantilli-[literally anyone]" line would stack up favorably against those two.

We can give them a year, they will not agree to the offer as proposed.

pettersson's NMC kicks in this summer. if they're gonna move him (seems likely!) now is pretty much the only time they can do it.

 

[alphafox]

1. if you want Pettersson, part with one of the trio of Fantilli/Johnson/Marchenko + Voronkov. So two lines are weakened by two quality players and Petterrson is no Crosby.

If Pettersson costs any of Fantilli/Johnson/Marchenko + Voronkov/ Mateychuck the deal is off. EP40 is only a win for us if those guys are on the team. We are not desperate to add Pettersson and he is not gold plated (i.e. Rantanen). Using the Rantanen Deal as a similar format it was essentially Rantenan and Hall for Necas and a Third. Pettersson is much less valuable than Rantanen before you add any of the additional negatives that have appeared this year.

I said it before, but it bears repeating the acceptable list of assets is some combo Sillinger, LDBB, Chinakov, Proverov, Severson, Mn 1st, 2nd tier prospect (i.e. Not Brindley, Elick, Maybe Marrelli). If you can get Pettersson for 2-3 of those its a gamble worth taking beyond that we can fix our problems for lower costs in the off season or through a different trade.

 

[VT]

real life isn't NHL25. pettersson is a distressed asset. their GM himself even said to temper expectations for a trade return, and the multiple sources (including the athletic yesterday) said that sillinger + picks would be the foundation of the trade.


if fantilli has to be in the top six, he can be swapped with chinakhov, making jenner the 3C.

the third lines on the last two cup winners:

• florida: luostarinen-lundell-tarasenko
• vegas: howden-karlsson-amadio

I'd wager that a "jenner-fantilli-[literally anyone]" line would stack up favorably against those two.


pettersson's NMC kicks in this summer. if they're gonna move him (seems likely!) now is pretty much the only time they can do it.

1. That doesn't mean he's going to agree with Sillinger and anyone.

2. Tarasenko of the 2023/24 season is not Tarasenko of the days when St. Louis won the SC. That's why it wasn't a horror that he played on the third line. Btw, it was a European line that combined more than the second line with Tkachuk, Bennett and Rodriguez.
Karlsson is a good player though, but he's helped by the Vegas system. Besides, neither him nor Lundell are as talented as Fantilli.
.

 

[majormajor]

this asserts that:

1. fantilli being a point per game player over his last 12 games is a better indicator of success than pettersson being a point per game player over his last 312 games
2. monahan is less of an injury concern than pettersson (despite being older and having missed far more games per season)
3. sillinger/DBB are better bets to far surpass their projection than pettersson is to keep his current form (let alone rebound to what he showed for 400 games before this year)

assertion #1 in particular is striking to me considering that you've spent the last few months on this board saying that fantilli isn't even a center!

It doesn't assert any of that. It's an acknowledgement of the uncertainty around EP's performance and I was specifically talking about his current play (6 pts in his last 17 games).

taking this at face value, you're saying that the trade can only be judged by the state of pettersson's play seven years from now, and not from the total value he would provide over the next seven years.

Again, not what I'm saying. Sure if he gets surpassed in 2030 or 2032 it wouldn't be a big deal but there are a lot of years between now and then and it wouldn't be a wild scenario if Fantilli or someone else or multiple players surpassed EP before then. Depending on his play it might be a low bar for our boys to clear. We don't know. There are very big risks to our organization here.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

It doesn't assert any of that. It's an acknowledgement of the uncertainty around EP's performance and I was specifically talking about his current play (6 pts in his last 17 games).

6 points in his last 17 games.
438 in the 434 games before that.

that small sample size is also during an absolute media frenzy over how toxic the situation is. as i said before, there are plenty of guys who went through similar stuff and came on the other side of it better than they were before.

Again, not what I'm saying. Sure if he gets surpassed in 2030 or 2032 it wouldn't be a big deal but there are a lot of years between now and then and it wouldn't be a wild scenario if Fantilli or someone else or multiple players surpassed EP before then.

again, the idea is to have a 1-2 punch with him and fantilli.

who specifically are the "multiple players" who you're thinking could surpass pettersson over the next 7 years?

monahan (four years older) and lindstrom (four years away from being a full-time NHLer) both have more concerning injury histories than pettersson. sillinger hasn't given any indication that he'll be close to the player that pettersson is. and del bel belluz is 9 games into his NHL career and has long carried a third line projection.

fantilli's had a nice stretch of games but it wasn't even a few weeks ago when you were saying he shouldn't even be playing center!

Depending on his play it might be a low bar for our boys to clear. We don't know. There are very big risks to our organization here.

that current low bar is, based on the net ratings in the athletic's model, higher than all CBJ forwards except for monahan and marchenko.

this is a severe case of recency bias and, frankly, pettersson's play the last two years (top-10 center in the league) setting the bar so high that him playing at just a top-line level caused everyone to act like the sky is falling.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

1. That doesn't mean he's going to agree with Sillinger and anyone.

you're assuming an asset cost that is far higher than what the actual reported asset cost is. that cost also clearly appears to be trending downward. if it happens to trend back upward and hit the level you said, it's a no-go for the jackets. simple as that.

suffice to say that given the current reported offers, sillinger and a 1st as a starting point is perfectly competitive, and the jackets have plenty of other assets to add that aren't the guys you listed.

i'm sure vancouver would love to get adam fantilli in return for EP40. the jackets wanted to get a top prospect in return for jiricek. it didn't happen because he was a distressed asset. same story with EP40, except there's a massive contract on top of that.

2. Tarasenko of the 2023/24 season is not Tarasenko of the days when St. Louis won the SC. That's why it wasn't a horror that he played on the third line.

right, i'm saying that tarasenko has been a plug for the last 2-3 years. a line of (for example) jenner-fantilli-brindley would be a great third line that could play defensively-focused minutes and present danger in the offensive zone.

then, in a year or two, fantilli moves up into the top six – if it's at center then monahan becomes an overqualified 3C (a good problem to have!), and if it's at wing they can roll jenner or DBB as the 3C. these things are not problems!