Should Connor Hellebuyck be in the Hart Conversation?
- Thread starter Carbooja
- Start date
I think he should be in the conversation, but even more than the high scoring forwards I think his team being second in goals per game will hurt him. If you go back to the last wins from Price and Theodore, Montreal was 20th and 19th in goals for, and even Buffalo was 17th and 13th in Hasek’s wins.
If we look at top 3 Hart finishes for goalies, the Rangers were 16th (Shesterkin in ‘22), Columbus was 6th (Bobrovsky in ‘17), Rangers again were 11th (Lundqvist in ‘12), Canucks were 21st (Luongo in ‘07), Jersey was 27th (Brodeur in ‘07), Calgary was 27th (Kipper in ‘06), Jersey was 14th (Brodeur in both ‘03 and ‘04), Colorado was 18th (Roy in ‘02), Buffalo was 17th, 18th and 11th (Hasek in ‘99, ‘95 and ‘94), Montreal was 14th (Roy in ‘92), Chicago was 8th (Belfour in ‘91).
You have to go back to Fuhr in ‘88 where the Oilers were 2nd in goals to find a goalie top 3 in Hart voting on a top 5 scoring team, and only two teams were top 10 in that time frame. If Winnipeg was 10-15th in goals for I think he’d have a much better chance, and a fairly decent one if they were in the bottom half of the league.
If we look at top 3 Hart finishes for goalies, the Rangers were 16th (Shesterkin in ‘22), Columbus was 6th (Bobrovsky in ‘17), Rangers again were 11th (Lundqvist in ‘12), Canucks were 21st (Luongo in ‘07), Jersey was 27th (Brodeur in ‘07), Calgary was 27th (Kipper in ‘06), Jersey was 14th (Brodeur in both ‘03 and ‘04), Colorado was 18th (Roy in ‘02), Buffalo was 17th, 18th and 11th (Hasek in ‘99, ‘95 and ‘94), Montreal was 14th (Roy in ‘92), Chicago was 8th (Belfour in ‘91).
You have to go back to Fuhr in ‘88 where the Oilers were 2nd in goals to find a goalie top 3 in Hart voting on a top 5 scoring team, and only two teams were top 10 in that time frame. If Winnipeg was 10-15th in goals for I think he’d have a much better chance, and a fairly decent one if they were in the bottom half of the league.
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The Dark Side Of The Goon
Romang67
BitterSwede
If you want to completely ignore any argument based on statistics, which I probably would too if I for some reason had to argue against his winning a third Vezina trophy at the current pace, at least go look at what fans of other teams say about Hellebuyck in their Game Day Threads when they play the Jets. Because it doesn't appear that their eye tests agree with yours when they watch the games.
Romang67
BitterSwede
Is your argument that he was bad in the 2023 and 2024 playoffs? Because if so, yes, he was. More so in the 2024 playoffs. In 2023, Vegas went through every goalie they played like a knife through hot butter. In fact, every subsequent goalie that faced Vegas had a worse save percentage against them than did Hellebuyck.
More importantly, that's not what your post said. It said that the statistics aren't to be trusted, and the eye test says he's not actually that good.
Don't try to tell me what my point was. My post clearly addressed both points.
Hellebuyck is an upper level goalie, but playing on a team that tailors their system specifically to having a good goalie is inflating his numbers. I've been to far too many Jets games not to see it
Romang67
BitterSwede
Was your point not that the statistics are not to be trusted and that people should trust your eye test instead? Because that's what your post said.
Right, and your eye test is to be trusted over everyone else's eye test, which conveniently is supported by numbers, I assume? My eye test is saying that the Jets are a mediocre team defensively. There are actually numbers supporting my claim.
What, specifically, are the Jets doing to inflate his numbers? Because according to various advanced metrics, they are just outside the bottom 10 in shots against, high danger scoring chances against, and xGA/60.
TheUnusedCrayon
Registered User
- Apr 12, 2018
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It also mentioned the playoffs, which you're conveniently ignoring. So if I'm as full of shit as you're implying, what's your explanation for Hellebuyck and the Jets being 2-8 in their last 10 playoff games?
Ill answer that for you. The Jets are a mediocre team, but in the regular season a mediocre team can insulate their goalie in a way that they can't in a playoff series. They do a great job keeping the shots to the outside, taking away shooting lanes, and when the pucks do get in close the shots are rarely uncontested. That's what my eye test says, and quite frankly I don't care what you or anyone else says.
The Jets supposedly have the best goalie in the league that's a hart candidate, they got to play a worse team than them in the playoffs, including the worst starter in the league, and they got lit up and couldn't muster more than 1 close win? The great Hellebuyck couldn't even give them a fighting chance. Something doesn't add up no matter how much you want to sugar coat it
So much this. The first shot is from the outside (low danger for the spreadsheet nerds out there), and then the other team gets a few wacks at the rebound while fighting a Jets player for the puck
gojetsgo
Registered User
- Nov 1, 2015
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those numbers went into the tank after we had a stretch of 17 in 32 with 14 straight games with travel going with ehlers/samberg out and scheifele playing hurt, before that stretch sportslogic had us at #2 xga and I'm sure you dig into this recent 8-2-1 stretch those numbers are starting to go closer to where they were before that stretch
helle is the best goalie in the world but to claim the jets are mediocre defensively is just wrong
Romang67
BitterSwede
Man, I love numbers. Let's dig deeper into this:
Hellebuyck is 2nd in the league among goalies with over 20 games played in rebounds allowed per save at 0.068. The difference between him, and the 10th ranked goalie, is 0.008, or a difference of one rebound every fourth game or so. Or, over the 30 games he has played this season, around 7.5 rebounds more. If he had performed as well in that regard as Lankinen, who is leading the league among goalies with 20 starts or more, he would have allowed 16 more rebounds over 30 games than Lankinen.
Per moneypuck.com
So yeah, that's probably not what's super inflating his numbers.
My explanation was that he was bad against the Avs, and every goalie was bad against the Knights. Did you not read my response to that point from earlier?
See?
I mean, I can't really argue against "this is what I claim, and I don't care if nothing actually supports it." Just like I wouldn't try to argue against a child putting their fingers in their ears shouting that they can't hear me.
The data don't support your argument, nor does it seem like fans from teams that play the Jets agree that they aren't getting scoring chances against the Jets. But if you want to sit there and believe something unsupported, you do you.
You seem to want me to argue something I'm simply not arguing when it comes to the playoffs. Hellebuyck was bad against the Avs. I understand that you want me to not say that he was bad against the Avs, and instead sugarcoat it. Unfortunately, that's not what I'm saying.
Man, you just jumped on the opportunity to have that data point support your claim.
They are bang average over this full season so far. Regardless how they ended up there, that's their defensive performance this year.
In that case I don't know how you can seriously claim he's some elite hart level goalie while still acknowledging he turns into a pumpkin come playoff time.Man, I love numbers. Let's dig deeper into this:
Hellebuyck is 2nd in the league among goalies with over 20 games played in rebounds allowed per save at 0.068. The difference between him, and the 10th ranked goalie, is 0.008, or a difference of one rebound every fourth game or so. Or, over the 30 games he has played this season, around 7.5 rebounds more.
Per moneypuck.com
So yeah, that's probably not what's super inflating his numbers.
My explanation was that he was bad against the Avs, and every goalie was bad against the Knights. Did you not read my response to that point from earlier?
See?
I mean, I can't really argue against "this is what I claim, and I don't care if nothing actually supports it." Just like I wouldn't try to argue against a child putting their fingers in their ears shouting that they can't hear me.
The data don't support your argument, nor does it seem like fans from teams that play the Jets agree that they aren't getting scoring chances against the Jets. But if you want to sit there and believe something unsupported, you do you.
You seem to want me to argue something I'm simply not arguing when it comes to the playoffs. Hellebuyck was bad against the Avs. I understand that you want me to not say that he was bad against the Avs, and instead sugarcoat it. Unfortunately, that's not what I'm saying.
Man, you just jumped on the opportunity to have that data point support your claim.
As bad as the Habs were, Price could at least backup his Hart-level regular seasons in playoff loses. Hellebuyck simply isn't at that level.
Romang67
BitterSwede
Because his performance in the playoffs in 2023 and 2024 has nothing to do with whether his performance in the 2024/25 regular season is "some elite hart level" performance?
This isn't particularly complicated. If you're asking if he should have won the Conn Smythe in 2023 or 2024, I don't think he should have.
I don't think Auston Matthews's Hart Trophy in 2022 was particularly egregious, even though he came off two playoffs where he scored 3 goals and 11 points in 12 playoff games. Same reason.
I just don't know how anyone can take his regular season performance seriously when we know what happens come playoff time. Especially when as I've said, the Jets insulate him so well in the regular season. And when that goes to shit in the playoffs, so does Hellebuyck
Romang67
BitterSwede
Well, as we have been over, what you said isn't backed up by anything, so I don't see why anyone would care.
See Matthews's Hart Trophy in 2022. Look at his playoff performances the two previous playoffs. Does that help you understand?
Matthews, who I also think is a fraud (as you said, see playoffs), at least mostly scores the goals on his own in 2022. I'm glad he didn't get the hart last year when the team spent the last half of the season playing more to get Matthews goals than they did to win games.
But in Hellebuyck's case, we see what happens when the team defence isn't locked in. He gets exposed, badly
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Romang67
BitterSwede
So you do understand how Matthews could win the Hart in 2022 despite his playoff performances?
I'm just checking that you understand how the Hart Trophy is independent from playoff performances. I don't care about what you think you're seeing on the ice. Since that really comes down to "my eye test is better than your eye test, and don't you dare show me the data."
No starter is. The difference between the #1 ranked starter (Lankinen) in rebounds per save, and the last ranked starter in rebounds per save (Kochetkov) comes out to an extra rebound every other game.
I do. But do you understand the difference in the situations? I'll break it down for you.
Matthews, great regular season. He's responsible for those performances. He's also responsible for not showing up in the playoffs. No matter how good or bad the Leafs are, he disappears. That's on him.
Meanwhile Hellebuyck is so reliant on his team playing a shut down brand of hockey. His regular season numbers aren't based on his performance alone. Just like in the playoffs, where his team is also shit, isn't entirely on him either (although his performances don't help).
If you can't see that the scenarios aren't comparable we're done here
Through 40-45 percent of the games, yes, although voters tend to weight the second half more heavily, as most people are subject to recency bias.
I'd say he's a near lock for Vezina if he sustains this play but the voters will lean to pick a forward for the Hart. In the conversation, though? Absolutely.
I'd say he's a near lock for Vezina if he sustains this play but the voters will lean to pick a forward for the Hart. In the conversation, though? Absolutely.
Bender Duster
Registered User
I can think of a few forwards in recent years that also stank up the bed in the playoffs during their Hart winning seasons.
Romang67
BitterSwede
Given that nothing backs up your claim that the Jets are playing a shutdown brand of hockey, I'm going to reject that out of hand. So there we are.
And as I said earlier, I have no interest in arguing against "my eye test tells me this, and I don't care if no one else agrees with it, nor if it's unsupported by any actual data." Mostly because it would be a waste of time. "I saw this happen" is an unfalsifiable claim if you also ignore data.
But I'm glad you understand how the Hart Trophy is awarded independent of past playoff performances.
Romang67
BitterSwede
Again, the comparison was to ensure that you understand how the Hart Trophy is awarded independently of past playoff performances. Seems you understand that.
As to your other claim, my eye test tells me that Matthews is highly dependent on his teammates spoon-feeding him goals, and the reason why his goal scoring rate drops to 34 goals per 82 games in the playoffs is because teams focus on stopping this.
My eye test doesn't actually tell me this, and if it did I would see if my eye test can be backed up by anything else. That's generally a prudent approach.
