Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
Definitely. I think Grier was 100% down to sign him if Smith wanted to.
Prospect Info: Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Thread XX
- Thread starter The Nemesis
- Start date
Alaskanice
Registered User
I think they are just assuming based on that's it overwhelmingly likely he goes back at this point. Grier just probably asked for it not to be announced until after the draft.
Alaskanice
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TealManV
A man has said
Agreed. Feels like a decision will be made after the lotto results and coaching situation is resolved.
Personally, I hope Smith goes back to school.
Are there any examples of a NCAA guy not signing the ELC this long after the season ends and not going back to school besides Cooley?
LadyStanley
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PacificOceanPotion
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tiburon12
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I bet Smith is waiting to see on the following:
- If the Sharks pick Celebrini....and then if Celebrini is going back or not
- How he does at WCs
- Who the next coach is
coooldude
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I believe this is right except for Coach. I don't think Coach will play into it.
Per @Lebanezer roster analysis, if we strike gold and Macklin is a shark, and Smith wants to sign, we are still short 2 bottom 6 and likely another 2 forwards (an aging Tavares?), plus two more who can swing from the Cuda like Carpy and Bailey. We try to target some bigger names in FA. We've got a full roster of 8D, but they're depressingly mediocre to bad and we need to move 1-2 of them (or buy out Vlasic, not likely but a possibility) to have our defensive corps not be so terrible at causing turnovers and then making a controlled exit instead of a panic dump out. If all this goes perfectly, then we could look like Anaheim next year which is to say, we're still bottom 3-5 but at least there are flashes.
The other option given Macklin's dad's comments ("he's still a puppy") is that both return to NCAA, the NCAA looks more and more like the best developmental league for top prospects, and that's great for us but the sharks are definitively bottom 3 and probably pushing again for bottom 1, even with a few trade or FA attempts on D and 4 veterans signed on F. That will be a miserable season but would be amazing for us long term, so long as the following season we can entice some better talent to join us.
If we don't get macklin, I think the second option is most likely because whoever we pick will be 2-3 years from the NHL (Lindstrom, Demidov, Levshunov, Silayev, Dickinson, Buium all in play...) and we will hopefully not be a quite so embarrassing worst team in the league next year, followed by another top 3 pick of Hagens, Hensler, Martone, or Frondell and the best prospect pool in the league.
Tavares to SJ would be pretty wild. I wouldn't give up anything for him. But if TML want to throw us a some futures to take the last two years of his deal, it could be a smart move
hohosaregood
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thank the hockey gods we didn't manage to sign Tavares the first time around. I don't think there's any way we would've gotten out of the rumored $13m contract.
There's only one year left on the deal and since we don't have a retention slot for next year, it doesn't make much sense for us to do the Leafs that sort of favor. Now, if they're over Mitch Marner and Marner wants to come here and potentially re-sign, I'd entertain that possibility but they'd ask for a hefty return that I'd likely turn down.
coooldude
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I was all for it at the time and devastated at the DW panic-carnage that happened once we lost him.
But the counterfactual is impossible to define. We might have secured our #1 C of the future only for him to be underwhelming even with keeping Pavs, never signing Kane or Karlsson. Might still be rebuilding the same right now.
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
On the flip side, maybe we win the Cup in 2019 with Tavares instead of Karlsson. Karl was injured most of that season and not that good in the playoffs.
Munnyro
Registered User
The problem with taking on Marner, to me, is the contract situation. I'm fine with the player, but he is going to demand a huge contract regardless of where he goes, and when he is the first big contract of the rebuild, everyone on the team will compare their contract against him coming out of the rebuild, and best case, you end up in the situation that the Leafs are in now.
For sure. The Sharks landing Marner is an astronomical longshot for this sort of reason. We're not ready to hand out a big contract yet but that can quickly change if Celebrini is coming here. Having another elite level talent for him to play with is something the team needs to invest in. My preference would be a free agent Stamkos that wouldn't probably need an 8 year commitment but I'd consider Marner if it's available. It may not be due to his NMC and not having any desire to play out here even if we get Celebrini. But he may because of guys like Marleau and Thornton being here and being in his ear as a former teammate. I also just wouldn't mind waiting for him to hit free agency next offseason but that opportunity may never come.
I think it's all about Mack. If he is picked, I think he and smith go pro along with Bystedt and potentially musty and Luca too and maybe Haltunnen as well. They use the cap space to add real players who can help now, especially on D, and go for a massive improvement, even taking a shot at PO's if Smith, Mack, Eklund, and the rest of the kids and imports can have solid years and a new coach teaches how to play defense, while not wasting roster spots on guys like Studnicka, givani smith, etc.
If they lose the lottery, then smith and 2024 pick stay in Jrs/NCAA/MHL/KHL. Musty, haltunnen, and luca take another development year as well, even Bystedt may slide. Grier signs a bucket of 1-2 year deals laregly for filler and we suffer another year of stink. Then we pick top 5 again, have tons of cap space again, and then go for it in 2025-26.
I think the entire direction of the franchise this upcoming season rests on tomorrow's lottery. It only makes sense to turn prospects, who have sliding ELCs, pro if we are really going for a chance at the POs, otherwise you burn a ELC year for nothing. We had to do that for Graf to get him to choose to come to SJ.
I actually dont think it's so much Smith who is choosing as Grier post lottery.
Alaskanice
Registered User
Interesting to me that Will and Leonard were invited to team USA for worlds and Perrault was not.
Patty Ice
Registered User
They wanted to help keep Rag fans focused on the playoffs and not swinging on his jock. Saving the rest of us from hearing how much better he is.
Juxtaposer
Outro: Divina Comedia
Grier has very publicly said that he thinks Smith is NHL-ready and that he wants to sign him. If he walks back on what he said (say, Smith says he’s ready to sign but Grier says ‘nah, go back to school for a year’), that’s how you get a Cutter Gauthier/David Jiricek situation. If Smith wants to sign, you sign him. If Smith struggles at the WC or something and Grier decides he actually doesn’t want to sign him, Grier can probably influence his decision by warning him that he might spend time in the AHL, but he cannot walk back what he’s said publicly without courting trouble.
BTW, if we get mack and choose to turn the prospect pool loose, it would be a hell of an intriging team. they could be great or horrible.
Zetterlund, Granlund, Sturm, and Kostin would be the only holdovers. Then you have Mack, Smith, Eklund, Graf, and Possibly Bystedt, Musty, Haltunnen as well as Gushkin and bordy waiting in the wings.
The D would be terrible, so the cap space would have to go toward 2 top 4 Dmen who can eat minutes and maybe 1-2 top 9 forwards. If they are going for it, they could sign marchassault and Amadio from the knights as well as Roy from the kings, or Sean walker, or our good friend dylan demelo. Or if they can swipe Skjei or Montour to be the #1.
personally, I would be fine with:
1. Granlund/Zetterlund/Eklund
2. Mack/Smith/Machasseault
3. Couture/Amadio/Graf
4. Sturm/Kostin/(guchkin/bordy/cheap vet)
I like march on the line with smith and mack as the veteran, cup winning, mentor who works so hard. Its a VERY young but very fast team. Mack and Smith were two of the top 5 players in all of the NCAA so it could go either way, but much like bedard struggled a bit this year, they obviously need a very good solid vet on their line to help them when they inevitably struggle.
note: I damn well hope i've seen the last of Kunin. I dont get the hard on grier and co have for him. he isnt worth nearly 3M+... barely 1M.
D:
Demelo-Mukhamadullin
Roy- Thrun
Ferraro-Ruuta
Pickles
Burroughs and benning can be scratches.
Even if this roster falls short again, the sharks could buy out pickles next summer (2025), and still have TONS of cap space going forward to compete in 2025-26. The kids would lose one year of ELC, but all of them would still be on ELCs so they would be a year older, a year more experienced, and still extremely cheap, not to mention Musty, Haltunnen, Bystedt and Cagnoni would all be ready.
If they lost the lottery all the youngin's stay in development, next year will stink. I would worry about 2025-26 too because while the kids may be ready, too many kids at once is not ideal. The nice thing abotu the scenario above is that there are only a few rookies penciled in and they are high end (mack, smith, Graf). Then Musty, Haltunnen, Bystedt, and Cagnoni would get their look in 2025-26. with Mack, Smith, and Graf as young vets.
Zetterlund, Granlund, Sturm, and Kostin would be the only holdovers. Then you have Mack, Smith, Eklund, Graf, and Possibly Bystedt, Musty, Haltunnen as well as Gushkin and bordy waiting in the wings.
The D would be terrible, so the cap space would have to go toward 2 top 4 Dmen who can eat minutes and maybe 1-2 top 9 forwards. If they are going for it, they could sign marchassault and Amadio from the knights as well as Roy from the kings, or Sean walker, or our good friend dylan demelo. Or if they can swipe Skjei or Montour to be the #1.
personally, I would be fine with:
1. Granlund/Zetterlund/Eklund
2. Mack/Smith/Machasseault
3. Couture/Amadio/Graf
4. Sturm/Kostin/(guchkin/bordy/cheap vet)
I like march on the line with smith and mack as the veteran, cup winning, mentor who works so hard. Its a VERY young but very fast team. Mack and Smith were two of the top 5 players in all of the NCAA so it could go either way, but much like bedard struggled a bit this year, they obviously need a very good solid vet on their line to help them when they inevitably struggle.
note: I damn well hope i've seen the last of Kunin. I dont get the hard on grier and co have for him. he isnt worth nearly 3M+... barely 1M.
D:
Demelo-Mukhamadullin
Roy- Thrun
Ferraro-Ruuta
Pickles
Burroughs and benning can be scratches.
Even if this roster falls short again, the sharks could buy out pickles next summer (2025), and still have TONS of cap space going forward to compete in 2025-26. The kids would lose one year of ELC, but all of them would still be on ELCs so they would be a year older, a year more experienced, and still extremely cheap, not to mention Musty, Haltunnen, Bystedt and Cagnoni would all be ready.
If they lost the lottery all the youngin's stay in development, next year will stink. I would worry about 2025-26 too because while the kids may be ready, too many kids at once is not ideal. The nice thing abotu the scenario above is that there are only a few rookies penciled in and they are high end (mack, smith, Graf). Then Musty, Haltunnen, Bystedt, and Cagnoni would get their look in 2025-26. with Mack, Smith, and Graf as young vets.
I definitely get your argument. It's possible, but I don't think Smith holds the cards. The gauthier thing is not good for either team or player. Smith is not so cut and dry, and I dont know if he would want to rush into the lineup if the team isnt going to really compete again.
I suppose, if they lose the lottery, there is a chance the sharks may draft Levshunov and give him a look in camp to make the team. He has NHL size already and will be 19 at the start of the year so if he and smith both go pro, then maybe.
I just dont really see a big reason to burn an ELC year on Smith if the sharks arent going to be any good. I see Mack as the key determinant in whether 2024-25 or 25-26 is the first "go for it" year.
Either way, Grier's tenure is make or break this summer. He has a projected nearly 40M in space this summer and 65M next year. How that money gets deployed coupled with how he handles the transition to pro from all the top prospects, along with his choice of coach will shape the next generation of sharks hockey. If he F's it up with another army of Lindbom, Sturm, Knyshov, Benning, Kunin, G. Smith, Burroughs, etc, then he will crush the kids' development. If he adds smartly and gets a good coach, they should be WAAAY better as soon as this coming year.
