Prospect Info: Sharks Prospect Info/Discussion Thread XIII

[hohosaregood]

Prospect board getting a little disgruntled that SJ hasn't gotten their name called yet. I think everybody is a little surprised.

 

[Lebanezer]

Prospect board getting a little disgruntled that SJ hasn't gotten their name called yet. I think everybody is a little surprised.

I’ll be curious to see what Pronman says about Suomela, because he and Praplan count according to his criteria. I’m surprised the Sharks are this high, but Merkley’s presence is clearly playing a large part. Then you have to wonder about Balcers who was the youngest forward besides True on the Cuda and he lead the team in goals and points. Maybe we’re so used to our prospects sucking that we’re undervaluing some guys. Except Nem, who claims he started every hype train.

 

[The Nemesis]

I’ll be curious to see what Pronman says about Suomela, because he and Praplan count according to his criteria. I’m surprised the Sharks are this high, but Merkley’s presence is clearly playing a large part. Then you have to wonder about Balcers who was the youngest forward besides True on the Cuda and he lead the team in goals and points. Maybe we’re so used to our prospects sucking that we’re undervaluing some guys. Except Nem, who claims he started every hype train.

Not every. Just Balcers right now.

Low-key on Blichfeld, but that's not a hype train. More of a "hopefulness shuttle"

 

[hohosaregood]

I'm on the misguided college kids hype train. Ferraro, Leonard, and Norris are my boiz.

 

[Maladroit]

Ferraro is gonna be a stud. I don't know how many people outside the Sharks fanbase realize he outscored 4th overall pick Cale Makar last year playing on the same team despite only being a month older.

 

[JoeThorntonsRooster]

Ferraro is gonna be a stud. I don't know how many people outside the Sharks fanbase realize he outscored 4th overall pick Cale Makar last year playing on the same team despite only being a month older.

I believe Makar had the slightly higher PPG but your point still stands, and it’s also important to consider that Ferraro was named team MVP.

I understand that there are many factors that go into rating a prospect, but when a 47th overall pick is named team MVP over a 4th overall pick who was drafted in the same year, you’ve got to think one of their stocks should either have a massive increase or a massive decrease. In the case of Ferraro/Makar, I think Ferraro should be the one who should see a massive increase in his stock.

 

[Maladroit]

I believe Makar had the slightly higher PPG but your point still stands, and it’s also important to consider that Ferraro was named team MVP.

I understand that there are many factors that go into rating a prospect, but when a 47th overall pick is named team MVP over a 4th overall pick who was drafted in the same year, you’ve got to think one of their stocks should either have a massive increase or a massive decrease. In the case of Ferraro/Makar, I think Ferraro should be the one who should see a massive increase in his stock.

I think history will bear out that Makar was probably taken like 15 spots too high and Ferraro 15 spots too low. They're both tracking to be solid second pairing defensemen at the NHL level.

 

[OrrNumber4]

People seem to highly value Pronman's opinion. What has he done to garner such trust? What perspicacious picks are in his history?

 

[Juxtaposer]

People seem to highly value Pronman's opinion. What has he done to garner such trust? What perspicacious picks are in his history?

He had Tarasenko at 6th overall in 2010 and ranked Gudbranson and Jack Campbell much lower than consensus. He ranks players like Duncan Siemens, Griffin Reinhart, and Tyler Biggs much lower than his colleagues as well. He was one of very few to have Kucherov in the first round that year. He’s never been afraid of Russians and he typically doesn’t care for the physical low-upside busts like Reinhart that so many people rank so highly.

In terms of recent history, he had Tolvanen at something like 7th overall on his 2017 draft list before this season. I can’t recall off the top of my head, but I’ve been following his work for years and in general he’s been quite good.

For me personally, Pronman values a lot of the same attributes that I do: skating, creativity, and a certain disregard for size issues. He values skill a lot, but not to the extent that the folks who rank prospects purely on stats do. I think he’s a happy medium between those people and the old school “stats don’t mean anything” types.

 

[LadyStanley]

19 TML
18 Wild

And the wait continues.

 

[Juxtaposer]

We’re... so close to being league average... I’m so excited...

 

[Sharksrule04]

People seem to highly value Pronman's opinion. What has he done to garner such trust? What perspicacious picks are in his history?

He does tons of material on prospects every year and has been for a while now. He pretty much spends the whole year watching juniors, college and international tournaments. He does overrate undersized skill players but knowing that you can lower your expectations for some of his ratings. He is probably the person I respect most in evaluating prospects and future draftees.

 

[Sharksrule04]

I'm pretty shocked that Merkley alone has boosted us from being worst 2 or 3 to top 17. I know other guys have developed as well but this big jump has to be Merkley's upside.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

Entire Sharks board-"We have the worst prospect pool in the league"

(ratings come out shortly after)

Entire Sharks board-"Man, we are STACKED!"

 

[Juxtaposer]

Entire Sharks board-"We have the worst prospect pool in the league"

(ratings come out shortly after)

Entire Sharks board-"Man, we are STACKED!"

I would describe us as “pleasantly surprised to be considered average”, myself.

 

[Maladroit]

No matter where our system ranks it could and should be higher if we had drafted Tolvanen, Vesalainen or Yamamoto over Josh Norris. Trading two second round picks for Roman Polak also remains one of Doug Wilson's stupidest moves as GM. But there's no question we've done a much better job overall these last two drafts and with Burke having even less influence going forward hopefully that continues.

 

[Goulet17]

I believe Makar had the slightly higher PPG but your point still stands, and it’s also important to consider that Ferraro was named team MVP.

I understand that there are many factors that go into rating a prospect, but when a 47th overall pick is named team MVP over a 4th overall pick who was drafted in the same year, you’ve got to think one of their stocks should either have a massive increase or a massive decrease. In the case of Ferraro/Makar, I think Ferraro should be the one who should see a massive increase in his stock.

IMO, people are conveniently forgetting what Makar did at the WJCs (including awards) and the Hockey East and New England media awards and recognition he received after the season.

 

[Goulet17]

People seem to highly value Pronman's opinion. What has he done to garner such trust? What perspicacious picks are in his history?

He had Colorado ranked 21st in prospects in the Summer of 2016 when Colorado had Mikko Rantanen, Tyson Jost, and JT Compher in their system and considered as prospects. Pronman continued to express doubt about Rantanen as a prospect even after he put up more than a PPG and won co-rookie of the year in the AHL.

For some organizations, he may have some insight. For others, it appears that he has been horribly off target.

 

[hohosaregood]

I believe Makar had the slightly higher PPG but your point still stands, and it’s also important to consider that Ferraro was named team MVP.

I understand that there are many factors that go into rating a prospect, but when a 47th overall pick is named team MVP over a 4th overall pick who was drafted in the same year, you’ve got to think one of their stocks should either have a massive increase or a massive decrease. In the case of Ferraro/Makar, I think Ferraro should be the one who should see a massive increase in his stock.

Ferraro proved himself as a prospect but I don't think it doesn't really take away from Makar in any way. Makar was still the offense centerpiece there. Like I've mentioned, collegehockeynews does some individual player shot tracking and Makar leads the way by a lot.
2017‑18 Massachusetts Statistics Advanced Metrics

 

[matt trick]

Ferraro proved himself as a prospect but I don't think it doesn't really take away from Makar in any way. Makar was still the offense centerpiece there. Like I've mentioned, collegehockeynews does some individual player shot tracking and Makar leads the way by a lot.
2017‑18 Massachusetts Statistics Advanced Metrics

So what you are saying is screw Makar and Ferraro, get on the John Leonard hype train! I'm on board with that!

 

[matt trick]

Also on Pronman, I personally feel like he is much more aligned with a typical team's ranking. So often we as fans take the average of everyone's rankings as what consensus looks like. Meanwhile, I think after you drop off an elite tier of a given year's prospects, everything goes up in the air. It seems like he has legitimately watched every player he ranks, and comes up with clear reasons why he doesn't adopt the norm.

Prospect evaluation is an unbelievably inexact science, and while I think his rankings tend to be better (and more interesting) than mosts, like anyone, he is going to have some monumental misses.

I do look forward to linking his list whenever people say the Sharks are finished (even though I agree we're in trouble)!

 

[hohosaregood]

So what you are saying is screw Makar and Ferraro, get on the John Leonard hype train! I'm on board with that!

Yea I think Leonard could be a big dark horse prospect

 

[Juxtaposer]

Ferraro proved himself as a prospect but I don't think it doesn't really take away from Makar in any way. Makar was still the offense centerpiece there. Like I've mentioned, collegehockeynews does some individual player shot tracking and Makar leads the way by a lot.
2017‑18 Massachusetts Statistics Advanced Metrics

I don’t think (maybe I’m wrong) that anyone is taking anything away from Makar. Just trying to point out that Ferraro isn’t miles behind him.

 

[spintops]

Good to see at least one "expert" thinks that much of our farm. It's a nice change of pace from reading about how screwed the franchise is and how bad our prospects are

 

[Lebanezer]

3 teams being released tomorrow by Pronman.