I've been working on this for a couple of days, but since we're now at the point where many of the North American amateur leagues are on their holiday break I figure it's a good time to check out where the prospect pool stands in terms of performance in their respective seasons to date.
So let's go through this by position according to how players were classed in the initial prospect thread posts way back on page 1. Players are listed alphabetically by surname. Blank rows are second (or third) teams that the above player has played in. So for instance in the first table below Theo Jacobsson has 14 GP with 1 assist for MoDo in the SHL, and 11 GP with 2 goals in Ostersunds IK of the Allsvenskan (Swedish 2nd division). I can't really think of a better way to present the numbers in a table for players who have suited up for multiple teams/levels that wouldn't make formatting and processing like 10x more difficult (Xenforo tables are total ass)
Also I know there are some empty table rows appearing between the various positions. I don't see them when editing and if I flip on the BB Code view it tends to cause the good, functional tables to break horribly when I turn it back off. So screw it, it's too late to care anymore.
CENTERS
Player
Team (League)
GP
G
A
P
Bordeleau, Thomas
SJ Barracuda (AHL)
21
6
4
10
Burke, Nolan
Wichita (ECHL)
26
8
8
16
Bystedt, Filip
SJ Barracuda (AHL)
24
7
10
17
Celebrini, Macklin
SJ Sharks (NHL)
24
11
12
23
Jacobsson, Theo
MoDo (SHL)
14
0
1
1
Ostersunds IK (Allsvenskan)
11
2
0
2
Klee, David
Muskegon (USHL)
26
12
10
22
Laubach, Reese
Penn St. (NCAA)
16
8
7
15
Lund, Cameron
Northeastern (NCAA)
15
8
10
18
Smith, Will
SJ Sharks (NHL)
28
5
6
11
Spiridonov, Yegor
HK Sochi (KHL)
15
0
0
0
Svoboda, Brandon
Boston U (NCAA)
11
3
0
3
LEFT WINGS
Player
Team (League)
GP
G
A
P
Afanasyev, Egor
CSKA Moscow (KHL)
23
4
7
11
Chernyshov, Igor
Saginaw (OHL)
0
0
0
0
Musty, Quentin
Sudbury (OHL)
11
8
12
20
RIGHT WINGS
Player
Team (League)
GP
G
A
P
Cardwell, Ethan
SJ Barracuda (AHL)
19
2
13
15
SJ Sharks (NHL)
6
1
0
1
Coe, Brandon
SJ Barracuda (AHL)
15
1
5
6
Graf, Collin
SJ Barracuda (AHL)
27
5
18
23
Gushchin, Danil
SJ Barracuda (AHL)
18
6
5
11
SJ Sharks (NHL)
10
0
1
1
Halttunen, Kasper
London (OHL)
9
2
4
6
SJ Barracuda (AHL)
6
2
2
4
Muldowney, Joey
Uconn (NCAA)
15
4
6
10
Rimashevsky, Yegor
Dynamo Moscow (KHL)
31
4
7
11
Robins, Tristen
SJ Barracuda (AHL)
17
3
3
6
Russell, Mitchell
Wichita (ECHL)
20
4
5
9
SJ Barracuda (AHL)
1
0
0
0
Spitserov, Timofei
U. of Vermont (NCAA)
15
4
4
8
Wetsch, Carson
Calgary (WHL)
30
13
11
24
LEFT D
Player
Team (League)
GP
G
A
P
Cagnoni, Luca
SJ Barracuda (AHL)
27
8
14
22
Dickinson, Sam
London (OHL)
26
15
31
46
Furlong, Jake
SJ Barracuda (AHL)
22
1
4
5
Guryev, Artem
Wichita (ECHL)
14
1
1
2
Kashnikov, Yevgeni
Yekaterinburg (KHL)
14
0
3
3
Gornyak UGMK (VHL)
7
0
0
0
Mukhamadullin, Shakir
SJ Barracuda (AHL)
14
0
6
6
SJ Sharks (NHL)
4
0
0
0
Sahlin Wallenius, Leo
Nybro Vikings (Allsvenskan)
14
1
5
6
Vaxjo Lakers J20 (J20 Nationell)
7
2
10
12
Vaxjo Lakers (SHL)
6
0
0
0
RIGHT D
Player
Team (League)
GP
G
A
P
Barnett, Eli
U. of Vermont (NCAA)
8
0
0
0
Fisher, Michael
Penticton (BCHL)
9
0
7
7
Havelid, Mattias
Linkoping HC (SHL)
14
0
1
1
Landen, Axel
Oskarsharmn (Allsvenskan
25
0
5
5
HV71 (SHL)
1
0
0
0
Laroque, Gannon
Wichita (ECHL)
0
0
0
0
Misskey, Nate
Victoria (WHL)
27
8
15
23
Pohlkamp, Eric
Denver U (NCAA)
18
4
10
14
Roberts, Colton
Vancouver (WHL)
29
2
14
16
Thompson, Jack
SJ Sharks (NHL)
14
2
3
5
GOALTENDERS
Player
Team (League)
GP
W-L-OT
GAA
Sv%
SO
Askarov, Yaroslav
SJ Barracuda (AHL)
14
9-4-2
2.00
0.938
3
SJ Sharks (NHL)
3
1-0-2
2.30
0.928
0
Kirsch, Christian
Janesville (NAHL)
9
3-6-0
2.92
0.925
0
Green Bay (USHL)
1
0-0-1
4.81
0.833
0
Korostelyov, Yaroslav
SKA-1946 St. Petesrburg (MHL)
13
8-1-0
1.67
0.934
2
Romanov, Georgii
SJ Barracuda (AHL)
10
5-4-2
2.98
0.913
0
NHLe Scoring Comparison
And as a completely useless and horrifically flawed exercise in comparison, I've fed each players' point totals into some slightly outdated NHLe translation factors (basically a ton of analysis boiled down into figuring out how much a point scored in a non-NHL league would be worth relative to an NHL point. There's a lot of literature out there about what this means and how it's done, dating at least as far back as the work of Rob Vollman that is contained in his hockey analytics book Stat Shot.
These numbers are from our own JTR taken from a paper he published on the subject and the factors he researched and compiled in 2021. Yes, they are outdated by this point, but they should serve well enough as a (very, very) rough point of comparison and for as frivolous as this exercise is I'm comfortable cutting some corners with somewhat ill-fitting data as opposed to having to do a ton of research that I do not have the time, drive, or statistical knowledge to want to fiddle with just to make an HFBoards post.
Also yeah I should also be controlling for age, but I have not seen anyone do strong work on age curve adjustment factors since the same Stat Shot chapter that featured my first exposure to NHLe, and since that was concerned with measuring and comparing pre-draft prospects I can't even just force-fit it to what we're doing since the adjustments were done in monthly increments between the ages of, I think, 15 and 18 and all our players here are 18+
And yeah, there probably should be some sort of bump done to boost defenseman production since d-men naturally get the scoring opportunities and raw point totals that your average forwards will have. I used to have some values that I figured out by taking several years of average NHL scoring by forwards vs D with minimum GP thresholds but I lost that work and I'm not spending hours recreating it for this.
The table will just feature the player name and their adjusted NHL equivalent PPG. Without turning this into a massive math/Excel treatise, I just took their point totals at every level each player has played at this season, adjusted each by-level point total by the appropriate conversion factor (eg the NHL is, natch, 1.00. The AHL is 0.389. The NCAA is 0.194. OHL is 0.144, WHL is 0.141, etc) and then summed those adjusted point totals for each player at all their participated levels and divided it by the total number of games they played across all levels.
For instance Ethan Cardwell has played 19 games in the AHL recording 15 points and 6 games in the NHL with 1 goal to his name.
His 1 NHL point is worth, duh, a point.
The AHL's conversion factor is 0.389, so his 15 points at that level equate to a value of 5.83 NHL points.
That means he has scored 6.83 NHLequivalent points this season (1 + 5.83) in 25 total games (6 + 19), for an adjusted NHL equivalent PPG of 0.273
That lets us compare with, say, Celebrini, who has 23 NHL points (worth, I think you can see the pattern here, 23 points) in 24 NHL games for an adjusted (by which I mean there was no adjusting necessary) PPG of 0.958
Anyway, here's the table of all the skater prospects above sorted by their NHLe PPG for this season so far:
Player
NHL equiv. PPG
Celebrini, Macklin
0.958
Smith, Will
0.393
Afanasyev, Egor
0.369
Graf, Collin
0.331
Cagnoni, Luca
0.317
Thompson, Jack
0.289
Bystedt, Filip
0.276
Rimashevsky, Yegor
0.274
Cardwell, Ethan
0.273
Musty, Quentin
0.262
Dickinson, Sam
0.255
Lund, Cameron
0.233
Gushchin, Danil
0.189
Bordeleau, Thomas
0.185
Laubach, Reese
0.182
Halttunen, Kasper
0.161
Coe, Brandon
0.156
Pohlkamp, Eric
0.151
Robins, Tristen
0.137
Mukhamadullin, Shakir
0.130
Muldowney, Joey
0.129
Klee, David
0.121
Misskey, Nate
0.120
Wetsch, Carson
0.113
Kashnikov, Yevgeni
0.110
Spitserov, Timofei
0.103
Burke, Nolan
0.090
Sahlin Wallenius, Leo
0.089
Furlong, Jake
0.088
Roberts, Colton
0.078
Landen, Axel
0.068
Russell, Mitchell
0.063
Fisher, Michael
0.062
Svoboda, Brandon
0.053
Jacobsson, Theo
0.051
Havelid, Mattias
0.040
Guryev, Artem
0.021
Spiridonov, Yegor
0.000
Barnett, Eli
0.000
Chernyshov, Igor*
0.000
Laroque, Gannon*
0.000
*Chernyshov and Laroque have not suited up for any games yet. Their 0s are not equal to the others.
Again, this is not meant to be a lazy way to rank the prospects overall. Musty and Dickinson are, for instance, obviously more valuable than several of the players above them. This will tend to favor guys who have any amounts of points at the NHL level, followed by anyone with even a few AHL points vs players in North American amateur ranks or European leagues. It also will not consider how a guy who's 20 in the AHL or in their D+1 year stacks up to a 23 year old AHLer or a D+3 player with better point totals. I could spend hours smoothing this out into something with real insight, but that's a lot of work and it's basically 2 days til Christmas at this point and I still have some presents to wrap.
It's just food for thought and is not meant to be taken as if it "means" anything.
Should convince Nashville that they could use Granlund and Ceci to shore up their team and convince them (incorrectly) that they can make a late playoff run. Then draft Schaefer and Misa and solve all our problems at once
Should convince Nashville that they could use Granlund and Ceci to shore up their team and convince them (incorrectly) that they can make a late playoff run. Then draft Schaefer and Misa and solve all our problems at once
This site uses cookies to help personalise content, tailor your experience and to keep you logged in if you register.
By continuing to use this site, you are consenting to our use of cookies.
