Prospect Info: Sharks Prospect Info & Discussion Megathread XXI: "New, improved, and wayyyy too much info" Edition

[Zarzh]

That trade was one of the best value trades we’ve had that has ended up the worst. At the time, the trade itself LOVED it and still do. The picks have been terrible though. Can’t say I would have taken Hutson (and most of us can’t) but I would have gone Kulich, Chesley, and Casey so 2/3 for sure better already.

Hutson is the easiest pick out of the last few drafts (except for Artamonov), Casey might be fine but his offense seems less sustainable so far. There's like 5 viable picks for 11 that could have filled a major need, Bystedt could as well technically, but there just wasn't much talent in the 2nd round that you should expect good results.

 

[Gecklund]

Hutson is the easiest pick out of the last few drafts (except for Artamonov), Casey might be fine but his offense seems less sustainable so far. There's like 5 viable picks for 11 that could have filled a major need, Bystedt could as well technically, but there just wasn't much talent in the 2nd round that you should expect good results.

I’m talking without hindsight cause I think that’s cheating. You can’t judge a team for missing a player every single team passed one.

 

[Zarzh]

I’m talking without hindsight cause I think that’s cheating. You can’t judge a team for missing a player every single team passed one.

Hutson had ridiculous pre-draft stats and ability. There's some nuance early in the draft, but past a point you should just take the player who scores too much for their league.

 

[Gecklund]

Hutson had ridiculous pre-draft stats and ability. There's some nuance early in the draft, but past a point you should just take the player who scores too much for their league.

Great and there’s multiple players every year that defy that. You’re also completely ignoring development and pretending he’d be the exact same player on the sharks and we don’t know that.

 

[Zarzh]

Great and there’s multiple players every year that defy that. You’re also completely ignoring development and pretending he’d be the exact same player on the sharks and we don’t know that.

That's more true of Casey than Hutson.

Like who? The players who break the rule are rare that you would destroy the field with let's say picks 15 and 30.

 

[Shark Finn]

You can look back to basically every damn draft and go "they should've picked player A over B".

 

[OrrNumber4]

You can look back to basically every damn draft and go "they should've picked player A over B".

Sure. But isn't the slippery slope of this argument "you can't criticize a team's drafting because there are always better choices"?

Put another way, how many times, since the lockout, have the Sharks actually taken the best player (or someone at least in the conversation) left on the board? The ones that come to mind are Hertl, Labanc, Ferraro, Braun, Bonino, Wingels, and Demers. Maybe the jury is still out for some of those later years, but is that a good record for a team that wants to be a contender?

Edit: Even Labanc doesn't qualify. Olofsson was drafted after him, and I belive Middleton was the last man of the draft that year (though I might be getting that confused with Keaton). Let me add Wingels as well.

 

[jMoneyBrah]

Sure. But isn't the slippery slope of this argument "you can't criticize a team's drafting because there are always better choices"?

Perhaps I’m just being silly, but specifically using the slippery slope example of an argument as rebuttal strikes me as incredibly unpersuasive. The fact that a lazy and causally dubious counter claim can be made is true of any argument. How can any topic be explored if this is all that is required to invalidate an idea?

Put another way, how many times, since the lockout, have the Sharks actually taken the best player (or someone at least in the conversation) left on the board? The ones that come to mind are Hertl, Labanc, Ferraro, Braun, Bonino, Wingels, and Demers. Maybe the jury is still out for some of those later years, but is that a good record for a team that wants to be a contender?

How many of the decision makers from those Sharks eras are still in the room on draft days now? I can hear critiques of the Wilson regime’s drafts. I can hear critiques of Grier lead drafts. Unless we are to believe there is something systemic to a hockey club being located in the city of San Jose that somehow durably influences their draft day selections, I don’t follow why one would have any bearing on the other.

There are probably markets where that argument could credibly be made, I’ve seen no evidence that San Jose is one of them.

 

[tiburon12]

Sure. But isn't the slippery slope of this argument "you can't criticize a team's drafting because there are always better choices"?

Put another way, how many times, since the lockout, have the Sharks actually taken the best player (or someone at least in the conversation) left on the board? The ones that come to mind are Hertl, Labanc, Ferraro, Braun, Bonino, Wingels, and Demers. Maybe the jury is still out for some of those later years, but is that a good record for a team that wants to be a contender?

Edit: Even Labanc doesn't qualify. Olofsson was drafted after him, and I belive Middleton was the last man of the draft that year (though I might be getting that confused with Keaton). Let me add Wingels as well.

How does how the Sharks fare compare to the rest of the league? that'd be interesting to look at.

Also, Hertl was not the best pick, Vasilevskiy was still on the board.

 

[Gecklund]

That's more true of Casey than Hutson.

Like who? The players who break the rule are rare that you would destroy the field with let's say picks 15 and 30.

Great and like I said, at the time I had Casey ranked in the first round (Hutson too but was real worried about his size). That was the point of my post. Value wise, great trade. Pick wise WITHOUT HINDSIGHT terrible picks.

Look at Jeremy Bracco as a good example. Ryan Merkley. I’m sure there’s others but it’s 6:35 and I just woke up. There’s so many players that put up great offensive numbers in juniors. That shouldn’t be your only factor in taking a player.

People love to complain about the small scoring wingers in our system and then say JUST TAKE THE PLAYERS THAT SCORE A LOT!!!

 

[Zarzh]

Great and like I said, at the time I had Casey ranked in the first round (Hutson too but was real worried about his size). That was the point of my post. Value wise, great trade. Pick wise WITHOUT HINDSIGHT terrible picks.

Look at Jeremy Bracco as a good example. Ryan Merkley. I’m sure there’s others but it’s 6:35 and I just woke up. There’s so many players that put up great offensive numbers in juniors. That shouldn’t be your only factor in taking a player.

People love to complain about the small scoring wingers in our system and then say JUST TAKE THE PLAYERS THAT SCORE A LOT!!!

The CHL is far less reliable, the USHL is better, and professional leagues are even better. Do you know the two players who had the most impressive scoring seasons out of 2nd rounders in 2015 in their draft year? Sebastian Aho followed by Roope Hintz.

 

[Gecklund]

The CHL is far less reliable, the USHL is better, and professional leagues are even better. Do you know the two players who had the most impressive scoring seasons out of 2nd rounders in 2015 in their draft year? Sebastian Aho followed by Roope Hintz.

Ah so now you’re changing the argument. Also completely ignoring development again.

Aho played in the NHL in 2016-17 but wasn’t the Aho we know today until closer to 2018-19. I absolutely love Aho but again wishful thinking to say he’d be the same player. We can easily turn that around and say without the injuries Roy would have been a top 4 RHD.

Hintz is an entirely different story and supports the need for strong development even more. Hintz didn’t make his NHL debut until 2018-19 and it wasn’t until 2021-22 that he was the player we know today.

 

[Zarzh]

Ah so now you’re changing the argument. Also completely ignoring development again.

Aho played in the NHL in 2016-17 but wasn’t the Aho we know today until closer to 2018-19. I absolutely love Aho but again wishful thinking to say he’d be the same player. We can easily turn that around and say without the injuries Roy would have been a top 4 RHD.

Hintz is an entirely different story and supports the need for strong development even more. Hintz didn’t make his NHL debut until 2018-19 and it wasn’t until 2021-22 that he was the player we know today.

No, Aho and Hintz both scored at a great rate in a professional league. Bracco scored at a good but not great rate in a junior league. The guys who score a lot are a lot more likely to develop, it's a very consistent pattern.

 

[Gecklund]

No, Aho and Hintz both scored at a great rate in a professional league. Bracco scored at a good but not great rate in a junior league. The guys who score a lot are a lot more likely to develop, it's a very consistent pattern.

So it’s just that black and white then? How come a random person on the internet has figured this out and GMs haven’t?

 

[Zarzh]

So it’s just that black and white then? How come a random person on the internet has figured this out and GMs haven’t?

Mostly, Carolina seems to use a similar idea most of the time, Boston and Dallas seem to usually pick the player with the highest stats.

 

[Saskatoon]

ESPN ranked us with #1 prospect pool - even counting Celebrini and Smith as graduated.

Ranking every NHL team's prospect pipeline: Why the Sharks are No. 1

As the 2024-25 season gets rolling, here's our updated 1-32 ranking of each club's players in the system.

www.espn.com

 

[Hodge]

Mostly, Carolina seems to use a similar idea most of the time, Boston and Dallas seem to usually pick the player with the highest stats.

How's that working out for them? We've been told for years by the internet scouts that the Canes are the best drafting team in hockey but all they have to show for it over the past 10 years are Necas (12th overall), Svechnikov (2nd overall) and Jarvis (13th overall). If you want to be generous Luostarinen became a good 3rd liner for another team and Kochetkov might be a solid 1B. At the same time, hard to give them any credit for Svechnikov. Their only steal is Aho.

 

[Gecklund]

Mostly, Carolina seems to use a similar idea most of the time, Boston and Dallas seem to usually pick the player with the highest stats.

Yeah I think we are getting a bit off track here. Basically my entire point is when you are judging drafting, you also have to remember about current time. In the case of Hutson he was a 5’8 dman that yes was scoring at a great rate and was showing great skills but was a defensive liability and 5’8. I also had Hutson ranked higher than he actually went but it’s very understandable why teams would pass on a 5’8 dman. You have mentioned scoring trends a couple times with prospects. Well there was another trend happening there were 5’8 dmen did not make the NHL. Yes Hutson is great and has progressed so well but that’s kind of beside the point. Hutson is now listed at 5’10 in a few places that I checked so that growth is also sort of unprecedented. Hutson is one of those unicorns that you always hope you hit in the draft and few teams ever do (similar to a Datsyuk or Pavelski or Zetterberg to name some of the famous ones). I also think the only reason MTL took him is because of the excessive amount of picks they had that draft. If he pans out fantastic if he doesn’t there was what like 5 other players that were taken in the first two rounds by them?

 

[Pinkfloyd]

That trade was one of the best value trades we’ve had that has ended up the worst. At the time, the trade itself LOVED it and still do. The picks have been terrible though. Can’t say I would have taken Hutson (and most of us can’t) but I would have gone Kulich, Chesley, and Casey so 2/3 for sure better already.

That was always a part of the risk involved with trading down. The value only means anything with the executed picks. Though it's starting off a bit rough, I still think Bystedt will make the trade respectable enough. I'm still holding out hope Havelid will be something useful for the team.

 

[Zarzh]

How's that working out for them? We've been told for years by the internet scouts that the Canes are the best drafting team in hockey but all they have to show for it over the past 10 years are Necas (12th overall), Svechnikov (2nd overall) and Jarvis (13th overall). If you want to be generous Luostarinen became a good 3rd liner for another team and Kochetkov might be a solid 1B. At the same time, hard to give them any credit for Svechnikov. Their only steal is Aho.

Carolina has hemorrhaged assets and deviated in 2014 and 2016 and they're still a contending team, they've lost so many good players for nothing and they're still fine. You trust the numbers over the scouts and pick Nylander and McAvoy and the team is absurd.

Yeah I think we are getting a bit off track here. Basically my entire point is when you are judging drafting, you also have to remember about current time. In the case of Hutson he was a 5’8 dman that yes was scoring at a great rate and was showing great skills but was a defensive liability and 5’8. I also had Hutson ranked higher than he actually went but it’s very understandable why teams would pass on a 5’8 dman. You have mentioned scoring trends a couple times with prospects. Well there was another trend happening there were 5’8 dmen did not make the NHL. Yes Hutson is great and has progressed so well but that’s kind of beside the point. Hutson is now listed at 5’10 in a few places that I checked so that growth is also sort of unprecedented. Hutson is one of those unicorns that you always hope you hit in the draft and few teams ever do (similar to a Datsyuk or Pavelski or Zetterberg to name some of the famous ones). I also think the only reason MTL took him is because of the excessive amount of picks they had that draft. If he pans out fantastic if he doesn’t there was what like 5 other players that were taken in the first two rounds by them?

Zetterberg for example should have been a much higher pick but they thought the league he was in was worthless. You can predict most of the unicorns, especially if you're picking a 5'9 defenseman anyway.

 

[Gecklund]

That was always a part of the risk involved with trading down. The value only means anything with the executed picks. Though it's starting off a bit rough, I still think Bystedt will make the trade respectable enough. I'm still holding out hope Havelid will be something useful for the team.

Bystedt is much better than I expected when picked. Definitely a good thing getting a potential real good 3C. I actually also liked the Havelid pick at the time even though I had Casey higher. It was also just weird timing with it being Grier’s first draft so it felt like he picked “safer” guys in Bystedt and Lund.

Carolina has hemorrhaged assets and deviated in 2014 and 2016 and they're still a contending team, they've lost so many good players for nothing and they're still fine. You trust the numbers over the scouts and pick Nylander and McAvoy and the team is absurd.

Zetterberg for example should have been a much higher pick but they thought the league he was in was worthless. You can predict most of the unicorns, especially if you're picking a 5'9 defenseman anyway.

Yet again, if it’s so easy why have none of the GMs learned yet?

 

[Jargon]

Bystedt is much better than I expected when picked. Definitely a good thing getting a potential real good 3C. I actually also liked the Havelid pick at the time even though I had Casey higher. It was also just weird timing with it being Grier’s first draft so it felt like he picked “safer” guys in Bystedt and Lund.

Yet again, if it’s so easy why have none of the GMs learned yet?

I feel like that draft was 50% Grier and 50% a staff that wasn't even really his in the first place. I imagine he was given options to choose from and he picked, but I have far more confidence in his current staff and his decision-making in the last two drafts than in that first one where he was basically a week into the job.

Though I guess ultimately, we'll see how it all shakes out.

 

[timorous me]

I feel like that draft was 50% Grier and 50% a staff that wasn't even really his in the first place. I imagine he was given options to choose from and he picked, but I have far more confidence in his current staff and his decision-making in the last two drafts than in that first one where he was basically a week into the job.

Though I guess ultimately, we'll see how it all shakes out.

Yeah, the way I imagine it (who knows the actual truth) I picture Grier being like, "I do not trust this DW Jr. character, so since they're the ones effectively making these picks, we might as well get as many lottery tickets as possible."

 

[Zarzh]

Yet again, if it’s so easy why have none of the GMs learned yet?

The human element. They are reactionary and risk adverse, many GMs and scouts are underqualified. Some of them do learn, most don't. They also want to find the miracle player like a Stone or Benn.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Bystedt is much better than I expected when picked. Definitely a good thing getting a potential real good 3C. I actually also liked the Havelid pick at the time even though I had Casey higher. It was also just weird timing with it being Grier’s first draft so it felt like he picked “safer” guys in Bystedt and Lund.

All Lund and/or Havelid need to do is be a useful piece in a trade or a depth player of some sort and if Bystedt is a regular 3C, it's an acceptable result for the trade. But it's understandable to think maybe we'd have more of an impact player for our rebuild if we used that 11th overall pick on someone like McGroarty. The thought process then for Grier still made plenty of sense. Trying to get more useful prospects for a rebuild on pretty much day one makes sense but it's also difficult to expect anything when he just got there too.