Prospect Info: Shane Wright (Round 1, Pick #4, 2022 draft)

[The Marquis]

First question is, "how many kids will finish their 4th year in the OHL(assuming the lost COVID year is counted) during their 18th birth year season? I think the number of players is just a couple, but no others are premier prospects that are being negatively effected here, or am I missing something? So I think this is an extremely unique situation.

Second, it is a CHL agreement but only the OHL failed to have a season, which is not at all the fault of anybody the players, yet they are being penalized based on which league they played in.

Third, in terms of motivation for the CHL, they have a highly questionable legal agreement with the NHL, and it will have to be renegotiated when the cba is up, so not drawing attention to the dubious legal workings of the deal that greatly benefits them is in their best interest.

If any player took the CHL to court about their right to work and actually earn a living as an adult in the United States, the cbs agreement would likely be found in violation of the right-to-work law since it discriminates against only a select group of players and not others based on playing status only at the time of being drafted.

I think this is a very unique situation, and the CHL will likely release Wright because it is in their best interest long-term.

This is a good read on how it could benefit the CHL. It's definitely not black and white, and I think there's also the "BCHL problem" now that the BCHL is independent of Hockey Canada, where a player who doesn't want to be locked into some "bullshit" might choose that league in order to have their options open as they age and perhaps change their mind. I realize that's a pretty far fetched problem, but I do think there is some validity to having a small amount of concern that should this deal not go in the favor of Wright that it could have an impact on the decision making of future junior hockey players.

 

[rsteen]

The NHL doesn't have a choice, lol. That is why they have a transfer agreement.

The only reason to do it is to attract premier talent to the league. hence I said PR. Though for the most part, kids seem to select leagues based on geography more than anything else.

It's not an agreement in perpetuity though, it will come up for extension or renegotiation every so often.
And the CHL has to think about the next Adam Fantilli or Macklin Celebrini who's 14 years old right now saying, "They did Shane Wright dirty, let's give the Chicago Steel a call."

 

[Gniwder]

It's not an agreement in perpetuity though, it will come up for extension or renegotiation every so often.
And the CHL has to think about the next Adam Fantilli or Macklin Celebrini who's 14 years old right now saying, "They did Shane Wright dirty, let's give the Chicago Steel a call."

Which is why I said PR is the only reason why they would do it.

As far as Fantilli, seems he went to the USHL because CHL is not considered an amateur league, and disqualifies a player from NCAA competition. USHL is better than playing in the BCHL or other junior A or B leagues. Seems he wanted to go to college, he actually committed a year early. Either that or he wanted to play with his brother, or both. his brother is an undrafted defenseman who played at both Chicago and currently Michigan.

Top NHL prospect Adam Fantilli commits to Michigan for 2022-23 season: Source

The 16-year-old forward led the Steel to the Clark Cup title last season, earning MVP honors in the process with eight goals and an assist in eight games.

theathletic.com

Looks like Celebrini already committed to BU, he's 17. 14 year old kids don't play in the USHL, that would be hella impressive.

 

[The Marquis]

Which is why I said PR is the only reason why they would do it.

As far as Fantilli, seems he went to the USHL because CHL is not considered an amateur league, and disqualifies a player from NCAA competition. USHL is better than playing in the BCHL or other junior A or B leagues. Seems he wanted to go to college, he actually committed a year early. Either that or he wanted to play with his brother, or both. his brother is an undrafted defenseman who played at both Chicago and currently Michigan.

Top NHL prospect Adam Fantilli commits to Michigan for 2022-23 season: Source

The 16-year-old forward led the Steel to the Clark Cup title last season, earning MVP honors in the process with eight goals and an assist in eight games.

theathletic.com

Looks like Celebrini already committed to BU, he's 17. 14 year old kids don't play in the USHL, that would be hella impressive.

On the matter of the bolded. I think the Wright situation would further exacerbate the stranglehold the CHL has on the players freedoms, which I think a league like the BCHL will try to exploit as they attempt growth as an independent league and that the USHL already does. Being able to sell a player "Come play here and have the opportunity to move to another league or even COLLEGE!" Good stuff. Great NHL players are drafted from college. That opens the door for a couple of years of high level junior hockey and then the NCAA, which has a higher % success rate of players drafted into the NHL.

You could be told whatever the CHL tells players and then look at this case and be like "or I could end up f***ed like Shane Wright was" and go play for Waterloo (are they still around? My buddy played for them).

 

[rsteen]

Which is why I said PR is the only reason why they would do it.

As far as Fantilli, seems he went to the USHL because CHL is not considered an amateur league, and disqualifies a player from NCAA competition. USHL is better than playing in the BCHL or other junior A or B leagues. Seems he wanted to go to college, he actually committed a year early. Either that or he wanted to play with his brother, or both. his brother is an undrafted defenseman who played at both Chicago and currently Michigan.

Top NHL prospect Adam Fantilli commits to Michigan for 2022-23 season: Source

The 16-year-old forward led the Steel to the Clark Cup title last season, earning MVP honors in the process with eight goals and an assist in eight games.

theathletic.com

Looks like Celebrini already committed to BU, he's 17. 14 year old kids don't play in the USHL, that would be hella impressive.

Yes, that's the point. Players decide when they want to leave NCAA and go pro, and there are no restrictions on where they play.

14/15 year olds are scouted and drafted by junior leagues. Kids basically need to decide on NCAA or not at 15.

 

[Gniwder]

On the matter of the bolded. I think the Wright situation would further exacerbate the stranglehold the CHL has on the players freedoms, which I think a league like the BCHL will try to exploit as they attempt growth as an independent league and that the USHL already does. Being able to sell a player "Come play here and have the opportunity to move to another league or even COLLEGE!" Good stuff. Great NHL players are drafted from college. That opens the door for a couple of years of high level junior hockey and then the NCAA, which has a higher % success rate of players drafted into the NHL.

You could be told whatever the CHL tells players and then look at this case and be like "or I could end up f***ed like Shane Wright was" and go play for Waterloo (are they still around? My buddy played for them).

Yes, Waterloo still exists, I actually lived in the neighboring city of Cedar Falls a long time ago.

BCHL is a lesser league, you want to compete in a higher level league if you want to get noticed and drafted. The same could be said for the USHL, but they have certainly closed the gap in the last couple of decades.

Flipping back to 2001 (just a random year), first USHL player drafted was:
4 113 NY Rangers Bryce Lampman D Omaha Lancers [USHL]

Now they have multiple kids in the first round. I think the USHL is a legit alternative now, more so than the BCHL which tends to attract players that plan on going to college to graduate, not play in the NHL.

Yes, that's the point. Players decide when they want to leave NCAA and go pro, and there are no restrictions on where they play.

14/15 year olds are scouted and drafted by junior leagues. Kids basically need to decide on NCAA or not at 15.

If they decide to go to college then CHL isn't a consideration anyways. The reason why CHL kids aren't eligible for NCAA competition is because they receive benefits such as stipend, equipment, etc. So there are financial considerations.

I mean if a player wanted to get paid and have complete freedom, they can go play in Europe like Auston Matthews did.

But anyways, I already said PR is the only reason for the OHL to grant Shane an exemption. We'll find out how much it matters to them.

 

[Fuhrious]

But anyways, I already said PR is the only reason for the OHL to grant Shane an exemption. We'll find out how much it matters to them.

I mean, multiple people have illustrated how there is a detrimental financial impact as potential stakes for the OHL if "star players" decide to go elsewhere on the heels of their handling of Wright. That's not "just PR".

You've kinda gone from "heck, I'll play devil's advocate..." to pretty strongly advocating for the OHL's position over the course of the day. Other people are allowed to have opinions, y'know?

 

[rsteen]

If they decide to go to college then CHL isn't a consideration anyways.

That's the point. If they decide they want to go NCAA to have more control over their career, they're going to say "Thanks but no thanks" when a CHL league waves a contract at them. Like you say the USHL/NCAA route is producing high picks these days so it's not like the CHL is the only path to the NHL.

 

[Gniwder]

I mean, multiple people have illustrated how there is a detrimental financial impact as potential stakes for the OHL if "star players" decide to go elsewhere on the heels of their handling of Wright. That's not "just PR".

You've kinda gone from "heck, I'll play devil's advocate..." to pretty strongly advocating for the OHL's position over the course of the day. Other people are allowed to have opinions, y'know?

I just don't like to set myself up for disappointment. You have to assume that the default decision is that an exemption will not be granted, because a contract is a contract. I've dealt with many corporate contracts in my career. Call me a pessimist, lol.

None of us work for the OHL so I don't see how my viewpoint impacts anything. Everyone likes to think we actually impact the outcome. We don't, this is a forum.

That's the point. If they decide they want to go NCAA to have more control over their career, they're going to say "Thanks but no thanks" when a CHL league waves a contract at them. Like you say the USHL/NCAA route is producing high picks these days so it's not like the CHL is the only path to the NHL.

That's always the case, whether or not Shane gets an exemption.

 

[Fuhrious]

I just don't like to set myself up for disappointment. You have to assume that the default decision is that an exemption will not be granted, because a contract is a contract. I've dealt with many corporate contracts in my career. Call me a pessimist, lol.

I mean...OK? You've spent a good chunk of the day going at people who dont share your pessimistic view pretty rabidly. It's fine to let other people who are less pessimistic "keep their fingers crossed", y'know?

None of us work for the OHL so I don't see how my viewpoint impacts anything. Everyone likes to think we actually impact the outcome. We don't, this is a forum.

I dont think anyone here has said or implied that. At most people here are saying "I hope they grant Wright an exemption and here's why they might". No need to take a dump on the conversation like that imo.

 

[Gniwder]

I dont think anyone here has said or implied that. At most people here are saying "I hope they grant Wright an exemption and here's why they might". No need to take a dump on the conversation like that imo.

None of his original reasons made any sense which is why I responded. Now if we're talking about PR reasons (or future recruits, however you want to put it), then yeah, that's a reason.

So the probability of the OHL granting an exemption depends on how they feel the situation impacts their public image and future recruits. I'd give it 50/50 at best.

I'm just the kind of guy that likes to have reasonable expectations. Nobody is forcing you to read my posts.

 

[Sombastate]

Hey guys, sorry to bug, but in a fantasy dynasty league and just curious what the percentage chance of Wright being in the NHL this year. Would you say north or south of 50%?

 

[kihei]

Hey guys, sorry to bug, but in a fantasy dynasty league and just curious what the percentage chance of Wright being in the NHL this year. Would you say north or south of 50%?

South

He could surprise, of course, but I would guess that his chance of a regular job is well under 50% probability.

 

[majormajor]

Hey guys, sorry to bug, but in a fantasy dynasty league and just curious what the percentage chance of Wright being in the NHL this year. Would you say north or south of 50%?

I think pretty close to 50%.

 

[bmore236]

I think it's less than 50%, since he does need some seasoning in the AHL.

 

[Gniwder]

I think it's less than 50%, since he does need some seasoning in the AHL.

The team certainly thinks so or otherwise they wouldn't have sent him down last season. He's eligible for another ELC slide, so there's really no reason to rush him. That cap flexibility will mean a lot later one because the team only has 4 players signed for 2026, and one of them is Grubauer.

The problem with having so many picks is that the ELCs all end at the same time. Not the worst problem to have because it means the prospects panned out, but Francis will have a lot of decisions to make in 2025 and 26.

If the team is looking for him to carry the puck and drive the play (as some have suggested), then it may be 2 more seasons before we see him in Seattle. He knows where to go and shoots well, but looks like the team wants more out of him.

 

[bmore236]

Do we absolutely know if Shane Wright is AHL eligible this year. I believe the Kraken are trying to get an exemption.

 

[Fuhrious]

Do we absolutely know if Shane Wright is AHL eligible this year. I believe the Kraken are trying to get an exemption.

No determination has been made public at the time of this reply.

 

[majormajor]

The team certainly thinks so or otherwise they wouldn't have sent him down last season.

They certainly thought so then. I think we're all hoping, the team included, that Shane has progressed a lot since then. Judging from the team's summer moves, they didn't put a lot of barriers between him and a job. It's just 38 year old Bellemare as far as centers go.

 

[Gniwder]

They certainly thought so then. I think we're all hoping, the team included, that Shane has progressed a lot since then. Judging from the team's summer moves, they didn't put a lot of barriers between him and a job. It's just 38 year old Bellemare as far as centers go.

50 games between OHL and AHL isn't enough to change a playing style. If the concern is that he's not carrying the puck or driving the play, then another season in the OHL might not be a bad thing for him. He'll be expected drive the play there.

Mind you, I thought he was good enough to play wing at the NHL level, he shoots well and knows where to go. But a couple of posters here pointed out that he never carried the puck at all, and didn't do it enough in juniors as well. Francis is the type of guy that wants the center driving the play, because that's what he did.

Best case scenario is that Francis somehow manages to sweet talk the OHL into letting him play in CV, but I'm not holding my breath for that.

 

[majormajor]

50 games between OHL and AHL isn't enough to change a playing style. If the concern is that he's not carrying the puck or driving the play, then another season in the OHL might not be a bad thing for him. He'll be expected drive the play there.

Mind you, I thought he was good enough to play wing at the NHL level, he shoots well and knows where to go. But a couple of posters here pointed out that he never carried the puck at all, and didn't do it enough in juniors as well. Francis is the type of guy that wants the center driving the play, because that's what he did.

Best case scenario is that Francis somehow manages to sweet talk the OHL into letting him play in CV, but I'm not holding my breath for that.

I don't know if a big change in playstyle is either necessary or possible. I was just talking about normal growth. If Shane could get more stable on his skates and learn some better tactics in puck battles he'd be more valuable. He'll be helpful with his anticipation, passing, and his shot so he doesn't need to be a great puck carrier to crack the lineup and provide value. Just get a little more comfortable holding pucks under pressure.

I don't think he fits the Francis center archetype, and that's okay. I think ideally I still want him at center but paired with a transition type winger who likes to carry the puck. I like Shane helping with the D and making the first pass from center, and he's a lot better shooting from the slot than battling in the corners so I don't see the value added at wing. With a Gaudreau/Maccelli/Bratt type wing I think Shane could be a perfect complement. I hope we keep looking for players like that. Firkus has some promise.

Edit: forgot to add that I don't disagree that OHL time would be fine for Shane. He can use that to develop a lot of things, especially puck carrying. Where I might differ is that I don't think it's too unlikely that he's one of the top 10 or so forwards in the org come training camp.

 

[Gniwder]

I don't know if a big change in playstyle is either necessary or possible. I was just talking about normal growth. If Shane could get more stable on his skates and learn some better tactics in puck battles he'd be more valuable. He'll be helpful with his anticipation, passing, and his shot so he doesn't need to be a great puck carrier to crack the lineup and provide value. Just get a little more comfortable holding pucks under pressure.

I don't think he fits the Francis center archetype, and that's okay. I think ideally I still want him at center but paired with a transition type winger who likes to carry the puck. I like Shane helping with the D and making the first pass from center, and he's a lot better shooting from the slot than battling in the corners so I don't see the value added at wing. With a Gaudreau/Maccelli/Bratt type wing I think Shane could be a perfect complement. I hope we keep looking for players like that. Firkus has some promise.

What we want doesn't really matter, it's whatever Francis wants him to be and also what Hakstol wants to put on the ice. It certainly looks like they want him to drive the play, we'll find out in a couple of months. The only place I don't want him is in the pressbox.

 

[majormajor]

What we want doesn't really matter, it's whatever Francis wants him to be and also what Hakstol wants to put on the ice. It certainly looks like they want him to drive the play, we'll find out in a couple of months. The only place I don't want him is in the pressbox.

For sure, but there's no reason to think that Francis and Hakstol have a stronger than usual preference for players fitting the center archetype. At some point you take players strengths/weaknesses as they are and you make the best use of them you can.

 

[kranuck]

GMRF is on record as saying they're in talks with the OHL to try to arrange accommodation due to the lost COVID season(s).

The OHL should count that as a season, it’s a massive f*** you to the players and the NHL to try and hold onto players because the league lost a seeason.

They have zero incentive to count the last season. The kraken decided to sit around doing nothing with wright for months and as a result he didn’t hit the required 25 games.

Francis f***ed up because he had no plan. Now he’s probably handcuffed the team for another year.

Wright should just say f*** off to both league and go to Europe for a season.

-Exceptional status player
- Misses a season due to the league shutting down in the middle of a global pandemic
- Falls short of the games played threshold in his fourth eligible season die to injuty
- Does not make the NHL in the following season (assuming he doesn't)

There probably will never be another player in that situation.

It wasn’t just due to injury, it was due to choices made by the NHL club.

Wright easily makes the GP mark if he gets sent back instead of screwing around benching him for weeks then sending him to the AHL for a handful of games.

 

[kranuck]

-Exceptional status player
- Misses a season due to the league shutting down in the middle of a global pandemic
- Falls short of the games played threshold in his fourth eligible season die to injuty
- Does not make the NHL in the following season (assuming he doesn't)

There probably will never be another player in that situation.

It wasn’t just due to injury, it was due to choices made by the NHL club.

Wright easily makes the GP mark if he gets sent back instead of screwing around benching him for weeks then sending him to the AHL for a handful of games.

Heck, I'll play devil's advocate:
- Exceptional status counts towards his 4 years so it isn't a disadvantage at all. It's usually an advantage, it allowed Joe Veleno to play in the AHL at age 19.
- All OHL players missed the season, which is actually the reason why I don't think they will give him an exemption. All of the other kids that missed a season will ask for the same.
- I can't recall injury exemption, ever, for the transfer rule. That is why there is also an age criteria.
- NHL or CHL IS THE WHOLE POINT OF the transfer agreement

If anything, the fact that they shut down and lost money during COVID is the reason why they would want a kid like Shane to play in the league to make a little extra money.

Your arguments are basically reasons why you (and every other Kraken fan) want him to be exempt, not reasons for the OHL to grant him an exemption. The only reason why they would allow Shane to leave is for PR purposes. Not gonna say it's impossible, but it is highly unlikely because it sets a precedent.

A blanket exception (just count the season for everyone) would make sense for COVID.

Otherwise they risk the NHL and players raising it as an issue in the next agreement. f***ing with service time is a big issue

First question is, "how many kids will finish their 4th year in the OHL(assuming the lost COVID year is counted) during their 18th birth year season? I think the number of players is just a couple, but no others are premier prospects that are being negatively effected here, or am I missing something? So I think this is an extremely unique situation.

Second, it is a CHL agreement but only the OHL failed to have a season, which is not at all the fault of anybody the players, yet they are being penalized based on which league they played in.

Third, in terms of motivation for the CHL, they have a highly questionable legal agreement with the NHL, and it will have to be renegotiated when the cba is up, so not drawing attention to the dubious legal workings of the deal that greatly benefits them is in their best interest.

If any player took the CHL to court about their right to work and actually earn a living as an adult in the United States, the cbs agreement would likely be found in violation of the right-to-work law since it discriminates against only a select group of players and not others based on playing status only at the time of being drafted.

I think this is a very unique situation, and the CHL will likely release Wright because it is in their best interest long-term.

Sports leagues pretty much don’t have to bother with obeying laws around worker rights or anti-trust.

If they did then they draft wouldn’t exist. Restricted free agency wouldn’t exist.