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OT: Severe Weather Discussion III

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Mr Misunderstood said:
So less than the original estimate from TWC? Color me shocked
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If the rest of us were as accurate in our own lines of work as the long range forecasters are, we'd be out of a job.

I glance at these forecasts like everyone else but I generally don't pay too much attention until we get inside the 48 hour window. Even then it's a bit of a crapshoot.
 
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We got a battle here between invading warm air from the south and a warm ocean vs a strong cold air intrusion to the north along with nighttime snowfall. Computer models are showing more chance for a changeover to sleet for a time during the storm but I think 6 to 12 range across the island is possible from southeast to northwest...if it stays all snow in convective bands places will see over a foot, just the sorta thing we have to watch, we got models that look at thousands of miles of world and trying to parce out twenty or 30 miles. There is never going to be certainty with this type of storm. Medium confidence of 6+ snow and sleet...
 
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TeamKidd said:
We got a battle here between invading warm air from the south and a warm ocean vs a strong cold air intrusion to the north along with nighttime snowfall. Computer models are showing more chance for a changeover to sleet for a time during the storm but I think 6 to 12 range across the island is possible from southeast to northwest...if it stays all snow in convective bands places will see over a foot, just the sorta thing we have to watch, we got models that look at thousands of miles of world and trying to parce out twenty or 30 miles. There is never going to be certainty with this type of storm. Medium confidence of 6+ snow and sleet...
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How are we looking in the 5 boroughs. Still 12-18?
 
MJF said:
How are we looking in the 5 boroughs. Still 12-18?
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There will be a tight gradient, wouldn't be surprised to see 6 in staten Island and 14 in the upper Bronx. The farther away from the coast, the more likely you'll see higher snowfall. 18 might be a stretch tho
 
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The Real JT said:
If the rest of us were as accurate in our own lines of work as the long range forecasters are, we'd be out of a job.

I glance at these forecasts like everyone else but I generally don't pay too much attention until we get inside the 48 hour window. Even then it's a bit of a crapshoot.
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Not hating on the individuals specifically, it's just more that outside 48 hours seems to be deliberately inaccurate on the high/dangerous end.
 
Mr Misunderstood said:
Not hating on the individuals specifically, it's just more that outside 48 hours seems to be deliberately inaccurate on the high/dangerous end.
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I prefer it that municipalities like NYC prepare for the worst and hope for the best.

So more than 48 hours out the early predictions for a worst case scenario I see as an attention getter.
 
The Real JT said:
If the rest of us were as accurate in our own lines of work as the long range forecasters are, we'd be out of a job.

I glance at these forecasts like everyone else but I generally don't pay too much attention until we get inside the 48 hour window. Even then it's a bit of a crapshoot.
Click to expand...
Mr Misunderstood said:
Not hating on the individuals specifically, it's just more that outside 48 hours seems to be deliberately inaccurate on the high/dangerous end.
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I can't vouch for news stations as they have a bias towards getting eyeballs towards the screens, but the professionals of the National Westher Service do a good job. Its not easy to predict the future, especially something so complex as the weather. As I noted in a previous post, a statistically tiny variation of 30 miles in a global computer model looking at a thousand miles drastically changes the forecast for millions of new Yorkers. Its frustrating but forecasting something to the last degree, which makes the ultimate difference between sleetfest2020 and a blizzard is incredibly difficult and anyone that complains can suck eggs cause we get it right a lot more than some of you seem to think. I may blow a forecast sometimes but I stand by my record.
 
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TeamKidd said:
I can't vouch for news stations as they have a bias towards getting eyeballs towards the screens, but the professionals of the National Westher Service do a good job. Its not easy to predict the future, especially something so complex as the weather. As I noted in a previous post, a statistically tiny variation of 30 miles in a global computer model looking at a thousand miles drastically changes the forecast for millions of new Yorkers. Its frustrating but forecasting something to the last degree, which makes the ultimate difference between sleetfest2020 and a blizzard is incredibly difficult and anyone that complains can suck eggs cause we get it right a lot more than some of you seem to think. I may blow a forecast sometimes but I stand by my record.
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I’ll bet your record is better than Adam Gase’s.
 
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Mr Misunderstood said:
Not hating on the individuals specifically, it's just more that outside 48 hours seems to be deliberately inaccurate on the high/dangerous end.
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They advertise the potential worst case scenario, to get your attention.

"Always be over-prepared so you dont f*** things up" - Josh Bailey and Al Roker
 
The Real JT said:
If the rest of us were as accurate in our own lines of work as the long range forecasters are, we'd be out of a job.

I glance at these forecasts like everyone else but I generally don't pay too much attention until we get inside the 48 hour window. Even then it's a bit of a crapshoot.
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lol holy shit, rational and logical Isles fans? f*** me.
 
BelovedIsles said:
How's it looking for the White Plains area?
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looking pretty solid for a good 10-16 inch snowfall, some sleet mixed in overnight but a foot give or take is a good bet.

incidentally, sorry if risk analysis is beyond some of our comfort level, but this storm only has a medium to low confidence for long island. those of you who think that your job performance is comparable to someone doing future predictions on something as complex as our atmosphere, well...think harder.
 
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TeamKidd said:
I can't vouch for news stations as they have a bias towards getting eyeballs towards the screens, but the professionals of the National Westher Service do a good job. Its not easy to predict the future, especially something so complex as the weather. As I noted in a previous post, a statistically tiny variation of 30 miles in a global computer model looking at a thousand miles drastically changes the forecast for millions of new Yorkers. Its frustrating but forecasting something to the last degree, which makes the ultimate difference between sleetfest2020 and a blizzard is incredibly difficult and anyone that complains can suck eggs cause we get it right a lot more than some of you seem to think. I may blow a forecast sometimes but I stand by my record.
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May I ask what your thoughts are for the central NJ(Bridgewater) area?
 
thedonger said:
May I ask what your thoughts are for the central NJ(Bridgewater) area?
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I'd say you guys are inline for something like 7 to 14 inches, a period of sleet overnight but mostly snow...I'm leaning a bit on the cold side for this storm as...if u haven't noticed, its f***ing cold outside lol
 
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Forecast not looking too good here in Connecticut.

Props to the amateur and professional forecasters. You got this one right!

blind.jpg
 
TeamKidd said:
I'd say you guys are inline for something like 7 to 14 inches, a period of sleet overnight but mostly snow...I'm leaning a bit on the cold side for this storm as...if u haven't noticed, its f***ing cold outside lol
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freaking colder than a polar bear's a$$ right now.
 
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