OT: Severe Weather Discussion III

[TeamKidd]

I thought this interesting, (and a little scary for our friends in the Hurricane Belt). I heard this on radio or somewhere over the weekend and found a quick link (scroll a bit) which had the same information.

Hurricane season isn't here yet -- but there is a storm down there, developing into something shortly, if not already.

The concern is that the ocean temps in the Atlantic, off the cost of Africa, and as storms charge westward, gain strength and power -- is the same temperature today, as it typically is in September.

This is very bad. One could assume warmer waters this Summer as the season progresses, which would result in more destructive storms. Yikes.




Tropical Storm Bret To Threaten Lesser Antilles And Another Storm Could Form On Its Heels


"Over the strip of the Atlantic Ocean between Africa and the Lesser Antilles is an area known as the "main development region" (MDR), where many intense hurricanes get their start. Ocean temperatures there have smashed mid-June records. Water temperatures near Cabo Verde and points west into the central tropical Atlantic are generally in the low 80s, which is sufficient heating for tropical development.

WPLG-TV hurricane expert Michael Lowry noted these sea-surface temperatures are more typical of the heart of hurricane season - early September - rather than June. Water temperatures in the proximity of this system are 2 to 5 degrees above average."

Yes, Atlantic basin Temps are higher now than they've ever been for this time of year and that would lead to more fuel for storms. That being said, typically an El Nino environment is usually a drag on hurricane development....so they might cancel each other out a bit. Hoping so anyways!

 

[xECK29x]

So….Lee huh

 

[Tres Peleches]

So….Lee huh

Tis a scary big storm. Where it goes will be dependent on when/where it interacts with upper level energy cutting across the US.

Earlier guidance suggested it getting caught by a big trough late next week, but we will see. Most likely track is between Bermuda and the Cape.

Think Nova Scotia is the most likely scenario, personally, but still a LONG time before there’s any kind of certainty with it

 

[Skip To My Lou]

Tis a scary big storm. Where it goes will be dependent on when/where it interacts with upper level energy cutting across the US.

Earlier guidance suggested it getting caught by a big trough late next week, but we will see. Most likely track is between Bermuda and the Cape.

Think Nova Scotia is the most likely scenario, personally, but still a LONG time before there’s any kind of certainty with it

So weird how fast it built to be a Cat 5. Really worry about the damage it could cause.

 

[JKP]

Tis a scary big storm. Where it goes will be dependent on when/where it interacts with upper level energy cutting across the US.

Earlier guidance suggested it getting caught by a big trough late next week, but we will see. Most likely track is between Bermuda and the Cape.

Think Nova Scotia is the most likely scenario, personally, but still a LONG time before there’s any kind of certainty with it

It'a definitely headed here, but doesn't look too bad right now. We're getting used to these dumb storms...

 

[Skip To My Lou]

It'a definitely headed here, but doesn't look too bad right now. We're getting used to these dumb storms...

Hoping for the best for y'all. Went to Halifax a few years ago and it was a joy.

 

[Tres Peleches]

Watching this weekend for the first potential snow event in a long while… details TBD, but likely a good snow event somewhere between day DC and Boston

I know a big range there, but again, way too far out to tell

 

[Zeeker]

What does it say that I get my weather news from HFBoards

 

[Bones45]

What does it say that I get my weather news from HFBoards

Lol.

About the same as you getting your hockey knowledge from HF…..

 

[Sparksrus3]

Lol.

About the same as you getting your hockey knowledge from HF…..

Other than HF HOCKEYS FORECAST one only needs to see Lonnie with his sleeves rolled up to know trouble is a brewing.

 

[TeamKidd]

As january keeps getting colder we'll see plenty of chances for snow at least through mid month. Then february could be another wild month. As for this storm - there is a max potential for something like 6 to 12 inches somewhere between DC and Boston. As for here, the track would have to be just right (or wrong) for us to max out on snow. the ocean is still warm and it may play havoc on the snow potential (as will be the case for much of this winter). Stay tuned...

 

[saintunspecified]

As january keeps getting colder we'll see plenty of chances for snow at least through mid month. Then february could be another wild month. As for this storm - there is a max potential for something like 6 to 12 inches somewhere between DC and Boston. As for here, the track would have to be just right (or wrong) for us to max out on snow. the ocean is still warm and it may play havoc on the snow potential (as will be the case for much of this winter). Stay tuned...

As a layperson, it's going to be interesting to see what all this talk of 'increased activity' is going to mean in the context of ocean water that's as warm as it was last year (which was record breaking, if I remember correctly). The 'polar bear plunge' at Coney Island yesterday really did not deserve that title.

 

[Bones45]

As a layperson, it's going to be interesting to see what all this talk of 'increased activity' is going to mean in the context of ocean water that's as warm as it was last year (which was record breaking, if I remember correctly). The 'polar bear plunge' at Coney Island yesterday really did not deserve that title.

Minimal shrinkage?

Most storms around Long Island are a bit of guesswork due to ocean/warming/mixing. Even the mets use guesswork from all the models.

 

[saintunspecified]

Minimal shrinkage?

I was only a towel bearer. (I do cold ocean stuff, but with a wet suit. Doing without a wet suit but for a few seconds seems pointless.)

There *were* some very confident dudes wearing thongs, lol. But, yeah, it would require even more confidence to do it in 39F water as opposed to 46F. (And it was probably warmer than that on the beach).

 

[Tres Peleches]

Minimal shrinkage?

Most storms around Long Island are a bit of guesswork due to ocean/warming/mixing. Even the mets use guesswork from all the models.

Every day is (educated) guesswork with weather, it’s literally predicting the future based off of accumulated knowledge of situations and imperfect computer simulations created by imperfect beings (humans) based off our our imperfect understanding of an incredibly complex system with a global scale

It’s one of the reasons why I’m especially salty about referees, because us meteorologists get shit on when we get stuff wrong trying to predict the future, yet referees get a pass from some when they decide to call/not call penalties they’re staring right in the face at because their oatmeal was too hot this morning

 

[Mr Misunderstood]

As a layperson, it's going to be interesting to see what all this talk of 'increased activity' is going to mean in the context of ocean water that's as warm as it was last year (which was record breaking, if I remember correctly). The 'polar bear plunge' at Coney Island yesterday really did not deserve that title.

Long Beach polar plunge is where it's at, give that big ole Atlantic another month more to chill.

 

[NC 1972]

As january keeps getting colder we'll see plenty of chances for snow at least through mid month. Then february could be another wild month. As for this storm - there is a max potential for something like 6 to 12 inches somewhere between DC and Boston. As for here, the track would have to be just right (or wrong) for us to max out on snow. the ocean is still warm and it may play havoc on the snow potential (as will be the case for much of this winter). Stay tuned...

I'm not a meteorologist nor an amateur one , but I am a fisherman so I pay close attention to things like moons, tides and weather fronts. That being said I've heard a lot of predictions about this year having significant snow. But it's my understanding we are in a strong El Niño year and this normally lends it self to a milder winter here in the east and the moisture usually falls in the form of rain. How do the pundits here see it going?
I

 

[TeamKidd]

I'm not a meteorologist nor an amateur one , but I am a fisherman so I pay close attention to things like moons, tides and weather fronts. That being said I've heard a lot of predictions about this year having significant snow. But it's my understanding we are in a strong El Niño year and this normally lends it self to a milder winter here in the east and the moisture usually falls in the form of rain. How do the pundits here see it going?

My general thought is that yes the ocean is very warm and that will definitely impact the forecast and make it a giant pain in the ass all winter long....it will also add fuel to the storms and make for more and larger storm systems....

so yes it will generally be warmer (although my Climo friends say February looks pretty brutal), it will be stormy - so if we get the right tracks just a few times we can really rack up the snow totals quickly. outside of that - a lot of slop and snow to rain situations.

 

[Bones45]

Every day is (educated) guesswork with weather, it’s literally predicting the future based off of accumulated knowledge of situations and imperfect computer simulations created by imperfect beings (humans) based off our our imperfect understanding of an incredibly complex system with a global scale

It’s one of the reasons why I’m especially salty about referees, because us meteorologists get shit on when we get stuff wrong trying to predict the future, yet referees get a pass from some when they decide to call/not call penalties they’re staring right in the face at because their oatmeal was too hot this morning

LOL.. Understood -- now the story is all coming together...

 

[Bones45]

Every day is (educated) guesswork with weather, it’s literally predicting the future based off of accumulated knowledge of situations and imperfect computer simulations created by imperfect beings (humans) based off our our imperfect understanding of an incredibly complex system with a global scale

It’s one of the reasons why I’m especially salty about referees, because us meteorologists get shit on when we get stuff wrong trying to predict the future, yet referees get a pass from some when they decide to call/not call penalties they’re staring right in the face at because their oatmeal was too hot this morning

For the record, Im sympathetic to the meteorologists too.....

 

[Chardo]

All a meteorologist has to do is say there's a 50% chance of rain (or snow). They'll never be wrong.

 

[Tres Peleches]

My general thought is that yes the ocean is very warm and that will definitely impact the forecast and make it a giant pain in the ass all winter long....it will also add fuel to the storms and make for more and larger storm systems....

so yes it will generally be warmer (although my Climo friends say February looks pretty brutal), it will be stormy - so if we get the right tracks just a few times we can really rack up the snow totals quickly. outside of that - a lot of slop and snow to rain situations.

The real question will be whether or not there is enough blocking to keep high pressure anchored over SE Canada.

If it does, and the system strengthens fast enough, it will keep the winds out of a more northerly direction which is key for LI snow, particularly in marginal situations

Too early to say. Models earlier today came in more wet than white, latest guidance came in a bit colder

My general rule of thumb is that models underdo cold air damming at the surface and warm air advection aloft

Wouldn’t surprise me if precip type is mainly frozen, but sleet becomes a factor

Too early to say, but I’d definitely at least look to make sure your snowblower is working

Especially since the longer term certainly looks colder than the past month or so

All a meteorologist has to do is say there's a 50% chance of rain (or snow). They'll never be wrong.

Still a better rate than NHL officials

 

[bstash19]

What does it say that I get my weather news from HFBoards

when i heard about the potential storm a few days back, this was the first place i checked.

I really appreciate all of the info and feedback on here.

 

[TeamKidd]

As expected, this storm continues to play on a razors edge for the Island. Points farther north look certain to get our first real snowfall in a few years. It's not a major blizzard or anything, but there has been some model tendency late today to hold back a piece of the storm and push a good burst of snow sunday afternoon on the island after mostly rain and sleet overnight into the morning sunday. It's a low confidence forecast probably right up to the end.

Latest US model snowfall forecast:

 

[Bunk Moreland]

I want as much snow as possible but being on the south shore I'm pretty nervous about getting too much rain