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OT: Severe Weather Discussion III

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Forecasters predicting a La Nina to develop this fall/winter - should keep us a bit warmer and drier than normal. mercifully.

(fast forward 5 months to a blizzardfest)
 
ML19 said:
Should we be concerned about Isaias?
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Def some good winds Tuesday. Could see sustained between 40-50 mph and gusts around 60-65 for a time. The HEAVIEST rain will be on the western side of the storm, but it looks like we will see a period of heavy rain as well.

@TeamKidd idk about you, but I looked at the soundings and I can’t help but wonder if there couldn’t be an isolated tornado or two as well. Long, looping hodographs and low LCL’s
 
Boys...how are we looking tomorrow? My mom lives in LB right on water. Should I be setting up my office as a bedroom? You guys are always the best
 
Costigan77 said:
Boys...how are we looking tomorrow? My mom lives in LB right on water. Should I be setting up my office as a bedroom? You guys are always the best
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I can’t tell you what to do exactly, but what I can tell you is that winds tomorrow afternoon and evening are when they will be the strongest. Thinking winds swing from SE to SW, with peak sustained winds during that time between 50-55 mph and perhaps some gusts to 70-75. The south shore of Nassau and Southwest Suffolk will probably be where the strongest winds on the Island will.

idk how prone to coastal flooding she is, but I’m not an expert in that kind of forecast so I’d refer to the NWS and National Hurricane Center for that kinda stuff
 
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Noreaster96 said:
I can’t tell you what to do exactly, but what I can tell you is that winds tomorrow afternoon and evening are when they will be the strongest. Thinking winds swing from SE to SW, with peak sustained winds during that time between 50-55 mph and perhaps some gusts to 70-75. The south shore of Nassau and Southwest Suffolk will probably be where the strongest winds on the Island will.

idk how prone to coastal flooding she is, but I’m not an expert in that kind of forecast so I’d refer to the NWS and National Hurricane Center for that kinda stuff
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I don't know about then, but I'm certainly expecting some flooding (where I am the street routinely floods--house has been safe though outside of Sandy from what I understand). I'm glad I replaced my sump pump that went before the last storm.
 
Noreaster96 said:
Def some good winds Tuesday. Could see sustained between 40-50 mph and gusts around 60-65 for a time. The HEAVIEST rain will be on the western side of the storm, but it looks like we will see a period of heavy rain as well.

@TeamKidd idk about you, but I looked at the soundings and I can’t help but wonder if there couldn’t be an isolated tornado or two as well. Long, looping hodographs and low LCL’s
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I agree @Noreaster96 , I saw the HRRR earlier and it sure as heck seemed like we had a period of tornadic looking cells rotating in during the afternoon tomorrow.

Generally i think the heaviest rain is from the city, west. We'll see a period of mid range tropical storm winds tomorrow, enough to cause some power outages in areas, especially by the coast. Overall it's a bad day tomorrow, but one we'll get past quickly. On the TEAMKIDD Oh Shit scale, i give this a 5. No serious need for bread and milk, unless one of those tornadic cells happens to find you.

I did see some 10m winds in the 90mph range on some of the models, but I agree - a few hours of some 40ish mph winds sustained with gusts in the 60s, maybe 70 if it gets frisky.

Final note, if you do get under a tornado warning, go to the basement and get on the south side of it. if no basement, interior room away from windows.

...and let us all pray that the power goes out AFTER the isles game.
 
TeamKidd said:
I agree @Noreaster96 , I saw the HRRR earlier and it sure as heck seemed like we had a period of tornadic looking cells rotating in during the afternoon tomorrow.

Generally i think the heaviest rain is from the city, west. We'll see a period of mid range tropical storm winds tomorrow, enough to cause some power outages in areas, especially by the coast. Overall it's a bad day tomorrow, but one we'll get past quickly. On the TEAMKIDD Oh Shit scale, i give this a 5. No serious need for bread and milk, unless one of those tornadic cells happens to find you.

I did see some 10m winds in the 90mph range on some of the models, but I agree - a few hours of some 40ish mph winds sustained with gusts in the 60s, maybe 70 if it gets frisky.

Final note, if you do get under a tornado warning, go to the basement and get on the south side of it. if no basement, interior room away from windows.

...and let us all pray that the power goes out AFTER the isles game.
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Thank God it’s a 12 PM game haha
 
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starting to see some stronger winds on the south shore of nassau right now. Atlantic City SE winds 36mph gusting to 61...about what we can expect generally. Few tornado warned storms in new jersey and PA, i'd expect few over the island after say noon. things go quiet this evening.
 
I have a softball game tonight I was banking on missing but as of now it's still going. Field is going to be a mess I'd think
 
Kevin27nyi said:
I have a softball game tonight I was banking on missing but as of now it's still going. Field is going to be a mess I'd think
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Zero chance that stands, just guessing based off what I've seen down south. It hasn't been terrible as a whole but it's been raining heavily and some tornadoes have touched down in Delaware.
 
Holy Schnike it’s windy. Hope everyone is ok, 78 mph wind gust inland in Farmingdale is crazy
 
Not much rain here in Lindenhurst, as expected, but some brutal winds. Lots of tree limbs in the streets. Power went on and off a handful of times but somehow has stayed on for the last half hour or so.

Sun peeking out now as well :huh:
 
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