Low Effort GDT Sens v Buffalo tonight

[LiseL]

I haven't liked Kleven's camp much at all, but when Filip Roos is your competition you're pretty much on the team by default.

That's why I was happy to see Hamonic's play look good the other night. I think he'd be a great partner for Kleven on the 3rd pairing, show him the ropes. Yes, they're both defensive D but that's not a bad thing. I always go back to what Sandy said about Hamonic, how he really helped his game. Would be nice to see him do the same for Kleven, i.e., help him be the best he can be.

 

[LiseL]

If only he had played all game but yeah, he showed why he's an actual starter in this league.

The # of shots he faced, he might as well have played a full game.

 

[LiseL]

Leafs fan who is becoming a Yak fan, is he making the team this year? thinking he will make a great sleeper D pick in my pool if he makes it

He was named the captain of his Calgary WHL team so I'd don't think he stays all year. Think he still needs some seasoning but I worry that the coaching staff in Calgary isn't good enough. If Zub is out with injury, they still have Hamonic and Bernard-Docker available on the right side. But yeah, he doesn't look out of place.

 

[LiseL]

Ullmark with a Korpi goal last night. But got peppered in the first.

Crookshank looked like he had something to prove. I was very in and out in a different time zone. How did Boucher look?

One of our D screened him on that shot. That's something our D have to ensure they don't do. If you're going to screen your goalie, you better block that shot. This happened a lot last year. It's one thing to collapse in front of the goalie, it's another if you're the cause of the goal either by accidentally redirecting it or by not letting your goalie see the play/incoming shot. Hard to tell if Ullmark could see that play develop before the shot.

 

[SpezDispenser]

If that's the case, then they don't deserve to be in the NHL.

I'm confident most won't be this year.

 

[Icelevel]

So, I did a quick and dirty Expected return calculation for our drafting from 2016 to present, and we should have expected about 9-10 NHL players with our picks. I think we're on pace for about that, maybe a touch behind.

Our drafting has been about average, nothing to write home about, but not something for heads to roll over either. What killed us is trading off 4oa, 7oa, 12oa, 39oa, 49oa, and 72oa, that should have likely netted us another 2-3 legit players (if Duchene, Chychrun and DBC worked out and extended, the value of the trades were fine, but not for one or two years of each). The GM is gone, and we have someone who seems like he's got a plan instead of reacting. Things should improve.

All that said, I'd still like to improve on our scouting and be above average. Maybe Jokiharju or Hague instead of Bowers, K'andre Miller instead of JBD, Sillinger instead of Boucher, Peterka instead of Jarventie, ect would have done it, but every team has it's misses. I think we need to clean up our first round a bit, we've technically met expectations with Brady Stu, Greig and Sanderson, especially if Yakemchuk hits. But I think Boucher, Thomson, and Brown were all area's of opportunity. Having a McAvoy, Sillinger and McMichael in the system for example, would have been a huge boon.

Carlo instead of Gagne. Lowry instead of filatov. Boeser instead of white.
Too many dumb ones like that.

 

[Wondercarrot]

Against a AHL/ECHL roster no less. The only bright spot was Linus and Gregor so far. Easy to say our depth doesn't come anywhere close to matching up against Buffalo's depth.

Honestly who cares?
You can only play 12 forwards and 6 D at a time.
We have enough young high end players, good support players, and not on the team young guys who will contribute to be deep enough at the NHL level to compete against anyone.
The real trick will be somehow have a couple of really good drafts over the next couple years so 5 years from now we can stay good.

 

[Gabrielor]

I guess I didn't express myself correctly. I'm not saying "copy the Sabres" but was saying that stockpiling picks and prospects is the way to go during a rebuild and that is what the Sabres have been doing the last few years. I don't have enough insight about the Sabres to explain why their rebuild has failed before but what they have been doing recently seems a lot more sustainable/credible. That part I have no idea but stockpiling talent is a part they have been doing correctly and the only part I would be "qualified" enough to give an opinion. For the rest, I don't know.

Ownership

 

[Rodzilla]

Which players specifically?

Johnston Wallstedt Zellweger off the top of my head

Really??? Fire an entire scouting staff because of one bad pick??? Damn

Yeah I was totally 100% serious

And yeah they have only made one bad pick

 

[JD1]

Talk in here about draft success. I've kind of always believed that outside the obvious top players in any given draft, it's a crapshoot with more luck involved than anything else.

Look at Tampa. They drafted Kucherov at 58 and Point at 74. They are stars right? Between Kucherov's draft year in 2011 and 2017, they whiffed on 10 players taken in the top 75 in those draft years. And that doesn't include taking Jonathan Drouin who we can all agree was a whiff at 3 oa.

Absolutely guys come out of nowhere to be NHL impact players. But here we have Tampa and the heralded GM Steve Yzerman and without two guys coming out of nowhere, their drafting would be an epic fail.

 

[BoardsofCanada]

Talk in here about draft success. I've kind of always believed that outside the obvious top players in any given draft, it's a crapshoot with more luck involved than anything else.

Look at Tampa. They drafted Kucherov at 58 and Point at 74. They are stars right? Between Kucherov's draft year in 2011 and 2017, they whiffed on 10 players taken in the top 75 in those draft years. And that doesn't include taking Jonathan Drouin who we can all agree was a whiff at 3 oa.

Absolutely guys come out of nowhere to be NHL impact players. But here we have Tampa and the heralded GM Steve Yzerman and without two guys coming out of nowhere, their drafting would be an epic fail.

I was coming to say the same thing. Successful rebuilds are based mostly on luck at the draft. Edmonton lands McDavid, a once in a generation player. Toronto got Matthews who is probably the best goal scorer in the game today, Those are the superstars you need to catapult out of a rebuild.

Buffalo's 1st overalls were Power and Dahlin.. both good, but not superstars. They did get Eichel 2nd overall back in 2015 who bailed on them. Their other 2nd ov was Sam Reinhart, again, good but not great.

I do think Buffalo, with 10 years of high picks, is finally on the cusp of breaking through. They have some excellent young players as we saw the other night. Goaltending is a question mark for them.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Talk in here about draft success. I've kind of always believed that outside the obvious top players in any given draft, it's a crapshoot with more luck involved than anything else.

Look at Tampa. They drafted Kucherov at 58 and Point at 74. They are stars right? Between Kucherov's draft year in 2011 and 2017, they whiffed on 10 players taken in the top 75 in those draft years. And that doesn't include taking Jonathan Drouin who we can all agree was a whiff at 3 oa.

Absolutely guys come out of nowhere to be NHL impact players. But here we have Tampa and the heralded GM Steve Yzerman and without two guys coming out of nowhere, their drafting would be an epic fail.

It seems clear that the issue with where the Senators are asset wise is more about how much of it was used as currency for acquisitions, most of which didn't work out, than their drafting selections. There's some good, some bad, and some ugly, like other organizations, but I don't see it as the glaring issue with the rebuild.

 

[DrEasy]

It seems clear that the issue with where the Senators are asset wise is more about how much of it was used as currency for acquisitions, most of which didn't work out, than their drafting selections. There's some good, some bad, and some ugly, like other organizations, but I don't see it as the glaring issue with the rebuild.

Yes, but also a bit of "smartest guy in the room" syndrome. They went off the board a few times, with mixed results. The picks might not even have been bad, but they might have still been available in later rounds.

Also, not scouting certain countries or areas, which might explain why they seemed to go off the board.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

Yes, but also a bit of "smartest guy in the room" syndrome. They went off the board a few times, with mixed results. The picks might not even have been bad, but they might have still been available in later rounds.

Also, not scouting certain countries or areas, which might explain why they seemed to go off the board.

I wouldn't discount that, but I do think the numbers probably bear out that with their picks as a whole, they've done fine and it's not the reason they're a bit asset starved atm.

 

[Loach]

I wouldn't discount that, but I do think the numbers probably bear out that with their picks as a whole, they've done fine and it's not the reason they're a bit asset starved atm.

So. A scouting staff that needed some help also got short changed by a buffoon GM that limited the number of picks they had.

 

[BonHoonLayneCornell]

So. A scouting staff that needed some help also got short changed by a buffoon GM that limited the number of picks they had.

Exactly. Hitting on another big one or two would have also been a boon, but more so, it's the buffoonery from Dorion that hamstrung the team.

 

[Loach]

Exactly. Hitting on another big one or two would have also been a boon, but more so, it's the buffoonery from Dorion that hamstrung the team.

SOooo. It could be plausible that the scouts made " smartest guy in the room" picks because they had to hit on the picks they had, knowing that the buffoon was a buffoon, they over thought the picks.... This doesn't take into consideration the intructions they recieved from the buffoon.

 

[Big Muddy]

Talk in here about draft success. I've kind of always believed that outside the obvious top players in any given draft, it's a crapshoot with more luck involved than anything else.

Look at Tampa. They drafted Kucherov at 58 and Point at 74. They are stars right? Between Kucherov's draft year in 2011 and 2017, they whiffed on 10 players taken in the top 75 in those draft years. And that doesn't include taking Jonathan Drouin who we can all agree was a whiff at 3 oa.

Absolutely guys come out of nowhere to be NHL impact players. But here we have Tampa and the heralded GM Steve Yzerman and without two guys coming out of nowhere, their drafting would be an epic fail.

It seems clear that the issue with where the Senators are asset wise is more about how much of it was used as currency for acquisitions, most of which didn't work out, than their drafting selections. There's some good, some bad, and some ugly, like other organizations, but I don't see it as the glaring issue with the rebuild.

Yes, I think proponents of both sides of this debate have stated that a big (or biggest) problem was trading away high 1st rounders when the rebuild wasn’t even finished. On top of that, the players they traded for didn’t even have term on their contracts.

A thing that has made me curious though is that if drafting success is purely random, why does any team bother having scouts then? Why does every team have multiple scouts and its been this way forever? Couldn’t they just use the Central Scouting system (etc.) and get rid of a needless expense?

 

[JD1]

Yes, I think proponents of both sides of this debate have stated that a big (or biggest) problem was trading away high 1st rounders when the rebuild wasn’t even finished. On top of that, the players they traded for didn’t even have term on their contracts.

A thing that has made me curious though is that if drafting success is purely random, why does any team bother having scouts then? Why does every team have multiple scouts and its been this way forever? Couldn’t they just use the Central Scouting system (etc.) and get rid of a needless expense?

Trading away the picks failed because ultimately neither player ended up staying and what we got when we moved them was nowhere close to what we paid.

On the chychrun deal, our goaltending last year was so bad there was no way for that deal to work out. Average goaltending may well have put us in the playoffs and that in itself likely changes perspectives

 

[Cosmix]

Honestly who cares?
You can only play 12 forwards and 6 D at a time.
We have enough young high end players, good support players, and not on the team young guys who will contribute to be deep enough at the NHL level to compete against anyone.
The real trick will be somehow have a couple of really good drafts over the next couple years so 5 years from now we can stay good.

I care. If the prospects we have now are not very good, the team will not improve over the next few years as well as it might otherwise have. We have a team that has not made the playoffs for many years and Dorion has screwed the future of this team with his trades.

I was coming to say the same thing. Successful rebuilds are based mostly on luck at the draft. Edmonton lands McDavid, a once in a generation player. Toronto got Matthews who is probably the best goal scorer in the game today, Those are the superstars you need to catapult out of a rebuild.

Buffalo's 1st overalls were Power and Dahlin.. both good, but not superstars. They did get Eichel 2nd overall back in 2015 who bailed on them. Their other 2nd ov was Sam Reinhart, again, good but not great.

I do think Buffalo, with 10 years of high picks, is finally on the cusp of breaking through. They have some excellent young players as we saw the other night. Goaltending is a question mark for them.

I think there might be a good UFA goaltender they could sign next summer.

 

[JD1]

I care. If the prospects we have now are not very good, the team will not improve over the next few years as well as it might others have. We have a team that has not made the playoffs for many years and Dorion has screwed the future of this team with his trades.


I think there might be a good UFA goaltender they could sign next summer.

Well, let's break down what we have

Drafted players
Tkachuk
Stuetzle
Batherson
Pinto
Greig

Chabot
Sanderson
Kleven
Jbd

That's quite a lot really

And joining this group possibly next year
Ostapchuk
Yakemchuk
Halladay
Boucher

Question really is whether the drafted core is good enough to win.

 

[Cosmix]

Yes, I think proponents of both sides of this debate have stated that a big (or biggest) problem was trading away high 1st rounders when the rebuild wasn’t even finished. On top of that, the players they traded for didn’t even have term on their contracts.

A thing that has made me curious though is that if drafting success is purely random, why does any team bother having scouts then? Why does every team have multiple scouts and its been this way forever? Couldn’t they just use the Central Scouting system (etc.) and get rid of a needless expense?

That suggestion has been put forward before. Criteria would have to be established for measuring drafting success and applied to every team's record and that of Central Scouting and other reputable rating entities. I suspect that the result might show that some of the rating entities might have records that are as good as some teams' scouting records. There will be outliers (much worse and much better) just as there are with stock performance and projections.

I don't think a team should get rid of all of its scouts; however, it might save money by using reputable scouting entities instead of more scouts, and do just as well. I think some teams already do that. Concentrating the scouting staff's efforts on players expected to be taken in the first 2 or 3 rounds of each draft might be optimum. The record of success for picks in rounds 4 and after is low compared to the first 3 rounds.

 

[LiseL]

I care. If the prospects we have now are not very good, the team will not improve over the next few years as well as it might others have. We have a team that has not made the playoffs for many years and Dorion has screwed the future of this team with his trades.


I think there might be a good UFA goaltender they could sign next summer.

I'm assuming you're talking about Ullmark. Would he want to return to Buffalo?

I also think that Buffalo made some of the same errors as the Sens in years past. Not surrounding the young players with solid vets to show the way, so so coaching, possibly terrible ownership. They've returned Ruff as the coach but have they really brought in any solid vets to lead the way? they did sign Kubel for 1 year, he won the cup with the Avs but he was picked off waivers twice during his career. Another signing was Sam Lafferty who played with the Canucks last year, at least those 2 players have playoffs experience but can they carry the load?

I remember when Reilly left Buffalo for St-Louis, he said he needed to get out of Buffalo where they had gotten used to losing and didn't really do anything to change it. I wonder if that's still the case.

 

[aragorn]

Yes, but also a bit of "smartest guy in the room" syndrome. They went off the board a few times, with mixed results. The picks might not even have been bad, but they might have still been available in later rounds.

Also, not scouting certain countries or areas, which might explain why they seemed to go off the board.

Mixed results is the resume of every team & every scout when drafting 18 yr olds. Everyone is an expert after the draft in hindsight & before the draft it's a best guess scenario unless it's obvious which it rarely is especially after the top 5 to 10 depending on the draft. And then it's what kind of player does a scout prefer & all scouts are different people with their own likes & dislikes, it's very rare to get complete consensus on any prospect unless the kid can't miss.