BondraTime
Registered User
Tim Pattyson has been with the Sens since 2016 in that role
They will (have) new scouts hired for next season
News Article: Sens hire DJ Smith as head coach
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They will (have) new scouts hired for next season
BatherSeason
Registered User
Hasn't Dorion and others admitted that it is only a small part time role? Seems like Tim Pattyson does a whole lot more than analytics and wears quite a few hats and based on comments provided by Dorion/Melnyk and Boro in the past, this organization doesn't believe too much in any analytical approach.
Tim Pattyson also has absolutely no background in data analytics, other than as a stats runner for HNIC for a couple of months. He could have absolutely learned the trade on the fly, but I doubt it, seems just like they stuck the title to him in addition to multiple other responsibilities.
LinkedIn seems to confirm that:
Responsible for statistical and analytical research of Senators team as well as opponents for coaching staff and research on contracts and background for general manager and assistant general manager. Take care of video needs for scouts and front office in conjunction with video coach. Work on special projects as needed. Help plan, organize and run the annual summer development camp.
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BondraTime
Registered User
It's full time, and has been since 2016.
It literally says in that profile he provides analytic data on other teams for their coaches during the season, and for Dorion for contracts and trades. That is all an analytical guy would do.
What he does in the Summer has nothing to do with his work in season, and taking care of video needs only makes sense as that's how all analytical guys get their data anyways, and his 10+ years as a video coach.
They have a guy feeding them analytics, they aren't going to go overboard on them, as most other teams have learned, because of diminished returns on spending. You can only do so much with data.
They take analytics into account for sure, maybe they could hire another guy, but it's very, very, very low on the list of things they should be working towards.
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FormentonTheFuture
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Serious question and I'm not trying to demean analytics or say it isn't important to have full time analytics staff - with so many websites and people already doing the analytics work online, and given it's all public and consumable, why not use those tools as data to help your decisions? I understand that team have their own analytics that are not available to the public, but how much more advanced would it be?
BatherSeason
Registered User
Honestly, I am almost positive that Pierre Dorion admitted that the analytics guy only works on that file part-time.
You have made your stance on analytics clear in the past, so I am not going to dive into this argument again, but many of the successful organizations in the league invest in analytics and while the results are debateable, I am willing to bet that the majority of teams that invest in analytics are more successful than the teams who don't.
Having one guy who does this on top of other things isn't enough IMO, especially when it is one of his many responsibilities and he has no background in data analytics.
To me, his job description that he wrote breaks down like this:
1) Responsible for statistical and analytical research of Senators team
2) research on contracts and background for general manager and assistant general manager. (not sure how researching contracts in analytical work, but maybe it's just worded poorly)
3) Take care of video needs for scouts and front office in conjunction with video coach
4) Work on special projects as needed
5) Help plan, organize and run the annual summer development camp.
Seems to me like he wears a lot of hats.
BatherSeason
Registered User
Why have an amateur scouting staff when you have multiple people who don't work for NHL teams providing scouting reports on players all over the world?
Like what exactly do scouts do? I know they watch the games, but why pay them to fly around North America when every game is now available online or you can find video all over the place.
**and for the record, I somewhat agree with you and partially agree my scout take**
FormentonTheFuture
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Because what one person sees is different from what another person sees and you need to know what you're seeing and have knowledge about the game, the players, etc. Analytics are numbers which have no biases and are just fact. You don't need an intimate knowledge of players when you're analyzing their stats.
Again, I'm not saying don't have analytics people, but I could see a cheap owner not wanting to invest a lot in that when all the numbers are already out there for even casual fans to see. If people always point to the same internet data people and their graphs when a trade or signing is made, why wouldn't that be good for an NHL team to use as well?
Because the NHL teams have much more information to use that would not be disclosed to those outside sites. Especially background scouting reports on injuries, tendencies verified by real eyeballs watching games, even game strategies and player feedback.
IMHO it all needs to be combined. There shouldn't be a silo for analytics and another for scouting. ALL the information should be used.
i.e. when my son used to play competitive hockey, I noticed one game where he was shooting the puck as soon as he crossed the blue line even though he had no pressure on him and it was a very low % play. I asked him why he was doing that instead of gaining a better shooting lane. His answer: the coach said that we aren't allowed to wait for a good opportunity. They had to shoot as soon as they crossed the line and all the forwards were supposed to rush for the rebounds. If they dared try to gain the slot (either with a deke or a pass) they would get yelled at back on the bench. Worst coach ever. These kids were 12. Lol. Way to take away the joy of playing and art of play making. And the worst thing was that it also didn't work. Same coach also made them break out of their own zone only on the right side of the ice. Literally not allowed to bring the puck up ice in the middle or left side. So every team would clue in to this nonsense and they'd get trapped.
But if you only had the analytics of that game, you'd say that that player (my kid) was always taking low % shots and creating turnovers. But that was only half of the story. You need the context around how they're being coached and what strategies are being employed.
BondraTime
Registered User
He's one of 2 guys working on analytics for the Sens, the other being Elias Collette, more than enough background in analytics
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BatherSeason
Registered User
Sorry, can't watch the video, its blocked here, not sure if it would provide much more context to what exactly he does for the Sens. We know Pierre Dorion said that
Elias Collete is a public servant who "consults" on analytics for the Ottawa Senators. Hardly a full time employee, also looks like he just started a job and as a Director in the public service, I am not sure he has a whole lot of time to dedicate to the Sens.
There is an interview with Dorion where he is asked about analytics and he only mentions Collete as the analytics guy and there is no mention of Pattyson whatsoever,
Either way, its not enough. Disagree all you want, but as long as the Sens stay behind the curve, this circus won't be getting much better anytime soon.
This is waaaay off topic, but my main point stands, I wish the Sens would show their fanbase that even though they are cheaping out on a coaching hire, they will use the funds they didn't need to bring in a high profile coach and bring in some established assistant coaches, or that they will directly use the savings to improve the scouting staff, or spend the money on revamping the training room, etc. Continually going into a cone of silence following a "budget move" doesn't help the perception the fans have, and it may surprise Count, but I am not the only one who shares this perspective.
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BondraTime
Registered User
The Sens aren't behind the curve though, them having a full time guy along with a very highly respected and educated guy consulting for them for 5 years, as well as Cookson, of the most analytic driven coaches in the league dating back to the 90's when he used and made analytics for Roger Neilson and the Flyers.
It's not that I'm disagreeing, though I certainly do, it's that you're just mad for the sake of being mad, constantly.
Sure, they could hire another analytic guy, or they could be like one of the 25ish other teams with 1-2 guys. Would be great to have another guy, but creating this unneeded narrative for a reason (very unneeded, there's tons to criticize) to critics the team is creating a mountain out if a mole hill.
BatherSeason
Registered User
Not mad at all, having a discussion with someone who thinks the Sens do enough from an analytics standpoint, while I am someone who disagrees. You can step away from the discussion at any time.
The Sens need to invest money EVERYWHERE, not only into analytics, that's the main argument I was making. I stated that with the money they saved by not hiring a high profile head coach, it would be great if they could invest the money saved in filling out their coaching staff, or by hiring more scouts, orusing the example I used.
As an aside, do you have confirmation of this:
That would be fantastic news. Something to not complain about.
stempniaksen
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Is Cookson still going to be around now that it's looking like Crawford is out the door?
Also, while Tim Pattyson is a full-time employee, he's definitely not a full time analytics guy. I don't know enough about analytics to know what that job is supposed to entail, but I absolutely know enough about some of the inner workings of the Sens front office to know that guy is stretched real thin.
It's so long down the list of things to be mad about when it comes to this franchise that it's tough to care, but I definitely think the Sens are behind the curve compared to a lot of teams. (On that note, there's an interesting article on Tyler Dellow being hired by the Devils and them having some level of access to the Philadelphia 76ers analytics equipment/staff that shows just how hard some teams are going in on analytics).
BondraTime
Registered User
Yeah Jersey is at the forefront for analytics, Dellow is taking over for his friend who was hired in 2014 after being a pro poker player/finance guy. They've been using them bigtime since 2014-15.
Dellow was a sought after guy, for sure.
They also hired the analytical guy from around Ottawa who works specifically on contracts, his work is very good and leads to real close numbers, can't remember exactly his name something Crane maybe. That's the biggest use for analytics that the Sens should be employing with all the bad contracts they hand out, and the accurate and transferable data they contain.
I'm not sure about Cookson, I was only talking about what we hadn't this season. If we lose him im sure we will hire someone else with a skill set like his either in the box or on the bench.
If we get to September and we have a hole there I will get worried, but I'm not worried for the 1st time in about 3 years with regards to new scouts/new small hockey ops hires.
The big ones are still a mess, but with regards to scouting and small operations we will be surprisingly pleased.
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Tnuoc Alucard
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BondraTime
Registered User
Nothing I can post to confirm it, as I don't have actual confirmation nor can I really name them, just some stuff from a guy who is plugged in who's told me things before that were true and has been very reliable.
Probably putting the cart before the horse the way I put it, but I'd be willing to bet on, as the things he's discussed with all came to fruition.
Mods can delete if they deem so as it's not exactly sourced or informative.
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Samsquanch
Raging Bull Squatch
And a lot of good that approach to hockey has done the for Devils...Arizona would be another great example of what happens when you put all your faith in these bogus numbers. Thats not a shot at you Bondra or anyone discussing the merits of analytics in here, just my own opinion on them..
And while I dont think that its a complete waste of time or resources to have an analytics guy (or guys) in your organization, they have some merit if taken with a huge grain of salt, but I strongly believe that they're being way overvalued by some people right now. I've literally argued with some deranged individuals on HFboards that have tried convince people that corsi ratings are better indicators of performance than points. Think about that.
So personally, Im very happy that Melnyk didn't gut the entire organization and try to do the money ball thing after he watched the movie. It doesnt work like that in hockey. And if anyone would be tempted to try it, it would be him.
BondraTime
Registered User
I'm with you on the analytics side, I'm not a fan of them at all, which I've been vocal about, or put as much stock as some are, for better or worse.
They have their use and are valuable, I'm not saying otherwise, but have major limitations. They are great for helping NHL teams out with evaluations and confirming things and it's great that teams are using them now to try and get any advantage they can, but they are the worst thing to happen happen on messages boards like these, as they're used in place of game knowledge many times, which they aren't in the NHL front offices.
stempniaksen
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Those two teams specifically are also cap floor teams, which I'd argue has a heck of a lot more to do with the lack of success than anything analytics related.
I'm not here to defend analytics to the bitter end, it's just a piece of the of the whole pie. Just here to point out that spending links those two teams (and the Sens) together more than anything they do on the analytics side of things.
I think the sens could have saved a lot of money if they'd been more open to analytics in the past. They may have had someone on staff but there's a difference between having someone on staff and having them actually have influence. In interviews it has even been admitted that they didn't use them much in the past. That being said, I think that the divide between the analytics and anti-analytics crowds is a little ridiculous.
Many of the analytics people overestimate the skill of their modelling but at the same time many anti-analytics people seem to have trouble recognizing that these models have value - especially because we all have biases. There is a lot of bad analytics out there for sure but there are some good ones too. I really like Mitch Brown's stuff because he's actually using video to track CHL player stats.
Take this piece at the Athletic from earlier this month - exactly the kinda way you should blend analytics with video.
Five CHL forwards the Canadiens could target with the No. 15...
Sens of Anarchy
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Sens of Anarchy
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Peptic Balcers
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I was there for his talk, he doesn’t have any input on trades/signings. I believe it was more lines combos and match-ups
BonkTastic
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The number of times I've had to endure asinine conversations where people tell me a player is good/bad based SOLELY on CORSI or WAR or some other single advanced stat, and that poster can't even describe why that statistic is valuable, is disheartening. The number of wannabe math PhDs on hockey message boards these days is mind boggling. Everyone wants to be right, and they think "advanced stats" are infallible, but don't even understand why the stat supposedly has value in the first place (don't understand either what is being measured, or how it correlates to results, or both). They just parrot the "smart thing" they heard as gospel, and don't understand how holistic evaluation works.
We are still in an EXTREME infancy in advanced stats in hockey. A lot of this stuff is very, very basic when compared to how complex the actual game it's trying to measure is. Like, if advanced stats were a video game, we wouldn't even be Beta-testing it, it would still be in full primary development.
I mean, I'm even a proponent of advanced stats... I think they absolutely have a depth of true value as basic as some of them still are. I like them. I'm a fan. The thing is, like every analytical tool we have to assess this game, advanced stats are a supplimentary metric. They should never be a main argument on any player.
Tuna99
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