GDT: Senators @ Devils - 1:00 P.M. - MSGSN, NHLN

[guitarguyvic]

I think the team can still win it all as constituted, but they would have to get quite lucky. Everyone will feel better with a 3rd line forward acquisition, but truth is that stuff really doesn't matter a ton - the luck would have to be injury luck as well as everything else. Even if you're the best team going into the playoffs, it doesn't matter a whole lot. They have shown the level of a Cup contender this season.

Well, we just don't agree, simple as that. This team reminds me of 2011-12, before the trades for Poni and Ziklicky were made and the CBGB line was put together. If Fitz can make magic like that happen by the trade deadline, then I'll agree that they are a realistic contender. But that 2011-12 team wasn't going anywhere far without that roster evolution - and I feel exactly the same about this group.

 

[mdj12784]

Question is, when do we start worrying?

 

[devilsblood]

My mind was making a stock analogy, and I was thinking, this looks like a good buying opportunity.

But in the age of betting, I guess we can put money down in a similar fashion.

Have we seen the Devils odd's change much during this run? Is there any money to be made on the Devils merely making the playoffs?

 

[devilsblood]

Well, we just don't agree, simple as that. This team reminds me of 2011-12, before the trades for Poni and Ziklicky were made and the CBGB line was put together. If Fitz can make magic like that happen by the trade deadline, then I'll agree that they are a realistic contender. But that 2011-12 team wasn't going anywhere far without that roster evolution - and I feel exactly the same about this group.

The converse of those additions is Kovy was a dynamo for much of that season, and was a shell of that player come playoffs.

Point being, subtract those guys but have a healthy Kovy and it's probably a wash.

But yeah, playoff teams do add at the TDL. It doesn't mean they aren't good prior to the trades.

 

[guitarguyvic]

Like I said, you were of course going to push back on the word hate because that is the easiest thing to do in a discussion like this. Wow, you don't hate anyone, okay. Glad to have gotten that out of the way. We're both bummed about how they're playing right now, I just think they're going to come out of this stretch and you don't.

And it's counter-points like this that just make these back and forths all the more frustrating. I have never once said they will not come out of this stretch. If you can't grasp and accept the actual statements being made, then don't bother responding.

 

[Triumph]

Well, we just don't agree, simple as that. This team reminds me of 2011-12, before the trades for Poni and Ziklicky were made and the CBGB line was put together. If Fitz can make magic like that happen by the trade deadline, then I'll agree that they are a realistic contender. But that 2011-12 team wasn't going anywhere far without that roster evolution - and I feel exactly the same about this group.

I think this team is objectively much, much better than that team already. The Devils traded for Ponikarovsky tomorrow 12 years ago. They were 26-18-2. They were 15-18-13 in regulation. This team is 24-17-8. It is just not even close.

 

[NJDevs26]

The only 'concern trolling' going on in this thread is from people who are more concerned with picking fights and gotchas with other posters than with the team's play or at least sticking to debating that. Knock it off before I go full Billy Crystal in Forget Paris and just throw all of you out of the GDT

 

[SteveCangialosi123]

My mind was making a stock analogy, and I was thinking, this looks like a good buying opportunity.

But in the age of betting, I guess we can put money down in a similar fashion.

Have we seen the Devils odd's change much during this run? Is there any money to be made on the Devils merely making the playoffs?

On DK we were -5000 to make the playoffs before the last 2 Ls, now we’re -3000. Still incredible favorites to do so. Same as Colorado, for reference. We’re -125 to finish over 99.5 points. Cup odds unchanged at +900, because the regular season doesn’t matter at all.

 

[devilsblood]

On DK we were -5000 to make the playoffs before the last 2 Ls, now we’re -3000. Still incredible favorites to do so. Same as Colorado, for reference. We’re -125 to finish over 99.5 points. Cup odds unchanged at +900, because the regular season doesn’t matter at all.

I suppose the cup odds are less influenced by relatively short mid season stretches. If this losing continues I imagines those cup odds run up. Similarly I imagine our good stretch early brought those odds in a bit.

But that over 99.5 looks like a good bet at the moment.

 

[NJDevs26]

It's not that people think the Devils are never going to come out of this stretch or they can't...it's that people have every right to be frustrated with this team given all these losses to bad teams in a short stretch, and they darn well better come out of this post-holiday malaise BEFORE the worst-case scenario actually gets into the view of reality. But the complaining after the last two games and three weeks of poor play gets lumped in with the silly complaining over one loss in November when the Devils were 12-7 or whatever as just more 'doomerism'.

 

[Richer's Ghost]

A lot of you are putting more effort into debating what's wrong than the team put into winning the past 2 weeks.

 

[Better Call Sal]

It's not that people think the Devils are never going to come out of this stretch or they can't...it's that people have every reason to be frustrated with this team given all these losses to bad teams in a short stretch, and they darn well better come out of this post-holiday malaise BEFORE the worst-case scenario actually gets into the view of reality.

I get your point, but there are certainly some in here that are at least acting like this is the same old story with this team and that’s the type of thing that comes across as grating.

There are so many different parameters at play that comparing this to teams of the past with a different coach, different structure, different supporting cast. While the core players have largely been the same, they’re being asked a much different way to play. I think it’s fair to question how limited they’re being asked to be offensively in some ways, but at the same time, their execution is very, very off. I’ve been supportive of Keefe sticking with his lines for the belief they will overcome the funk, but I’ll be a bit annoyed if we go into Wednesday with the same lines as we’ve had.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

Well, we just don't agree, simple as that. This team reminds me of 2011-12, before the trades for Poni and Ziklicky were made and the CBGB line was put together. If Fitz can make magic like that happen by the trade deadline, then I'll agree that they are a realistic contender. But that 2011-12 team wasn't going anywhere far without that roster evolution - and I feel exactly the same about this group.

That 2011-2012 team was very good, people just shat on them unconditionally because they won a lot of games in the shootout and thought they were gonna be an easy out once actual playoff OT came and they were pretty f***ing good in playoff OT when push came to shove. They were also the 4th best team in the 5 team division days, that hurt them a bit too but all the "Atlantic" teams that made the playoffs that year were all very good in us, NYR, PIT, PHI

I think this team is objectively much, much better than that team already. The Devils traded for Ponikarovsky tomorrow 12 years ago. They were 26-18-2. They were 15-18-13 in regulation. This team is 24-17-8. It is just not even close.

As much as we as a board have shat on the Islanders in recent years and how that 2011/2012 Devils team got shat on for the shootout and being OT merchants, there's a skill to getting to OT, I would sign up for some more OT losses in this recent stretch

 

[Devs3cups]

People trying to pinpoint the blame are just looking for their pound of flesh. I get the team has not had their success over the past 12 years, but the complaints that come on here do come across incredibly babyish. If that is your prerogative, be my guest. I don’t want to tell someone how to feel. But I find that a very grating way to be a fan.

There were stretches in this skid where if our top 6 didn’t produce, we weren’t going to win. Now we’re in a stretch where they’re actually getting a goal squeezed out of the 4th line two games in a row but the top 9 is nowhere to be seen. Outside of goaltending, which has plagued us in years past, you can pinpoint every thing imaginable that could go against us in this stretch and it has.

Do you truly believe this is the team? Do you truly believe they’ll shoot 7% the rest of the way with the group they have? Do you really believe they will win two of 11 the rest of the way? Do you believe this team that had a dominant stretch of play as games wore on in the 2nd and 3rd have suddenly forgot how to play late?

Perspective is often lost on here. I think it would benefit some to not leap off in January. Lengthy skid of poor play notwithstanding.

Solid post that gives a bit of perspective. I think we’re all frustrated with how things have turned out.

On the other hand, if at the same date last year we had a crystal ball that let us see the 2024-2025 standings right now, we’d be happy with their situation. I don’t think it’s panic time. They’re still in a good place for now.

Team needs to rest up, refocus and be ready for Wednesday. Feels like a reset is needed.

 

[NJDevs26]

I get your point, but there are certainly some in here that are at least acting like this is the same old story with this team and that’s the type of thing that comes across as grating.

There are so many different parameters at play that comparing this to teams of the past with a different coach, different structure, different supporting cast. While the core players have largely been the same, they’re being asked a much different way to play. I think it’s fair to question how limited they’re being asked to be offensively in some ways, but at the same time, their execution is very, very off. I’ve been supportive of Keefe sticking with his lines for the belief they will overcome the funk, but I’ll be a bit annoyed if we go into Wednesday with the same lines as we’ve had.

By the same token, the team's recent history means they deserve less benefit of the doubt than say, Colorado or Florida going through a similar stretch. That's the crux of a lot of this back-and-forth and what the other anti-doomers conveniently ignore. No, what happened last year or three years ago doesn't mean they'll spiral out of control, but it also suggests they deserve a bit more scrutiny for 'stretches like this' than a team that has had more recent success.

 

[Davegarri]

The guys better have been shitting and puking on the bench during the 3rd to only muster up 2 shots in the final 17:10 after giving up the 2nd goal.

Putrid effort that period. They looked lost out there.

 

[Triumph]

That 2011-2012 team was very good, people just shat on them unconditionally because they won a lot of games in the shootout and thought they were gonna be an easy out once actual playoff OT came and they were pretty f***ing good in playoff OT when push came to shove. They were also the 4th best team in the 5 team division days, that hurt them a bit too but all the "Atlantic" teams that made the playoffs that year were all very good in us, NYR, PIT, PHI

They were objectively meh for the first half of the season, but they had horrid depth which they fixed over the course of the year - they fixed their 3rd line with Ponikarovsky and then Zajac returning, and they fixed their 4th line with Carter sliding down to play with Bernier and Gionta was a find. Sykora was still a weak link but he was being scratched by the end of the playoffs.

They were 4-3 in playoff OT, right? 2 wins against Florida, 1-1 against the Flyers, a win against the Rangers, and 2 losses against Los Angeles? I don't think Devils fans who remember the Cup years will ever feel confident in playoff OT, they had objectively awful results in OT over that stretch of years.

 

[NJDevs26]

Well, we just don't agree, simple as that. This team reminds me of 2011-12, before the trades for Poni and Ziklicky were made and the CBGB line was put together. If Fitz can make magic like that happen by the trade deadline, then I'll agree that they are a realistic contender. But that 2011-12 team wasn't going anywhere far without that roster evolution - and I feel exactly the same about this group.

I think they were meh the first quarter of the season, which not so coincidentally is when Parise was still working his way back into form after missing a whole year. After that they took off, even before the deadline although yes the deadline acquisitions certainly helped.

 

[Triumph]

As much as we as a board have shat on the Islanders in recent years and how that 2011/2012 Devils team got shat on for the shootout and being OT merchants, there's a skill to getting to OT, I would sign up for some more OT losses in this recent stretch

It is not a skill that matters in the playoffs. Neither OT nor the last 5 minutes of regulation in the regular season is a game state that exists in the playoffs.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

They were objectively meh for the first half of the season, but they had horrid depth which they fixed over the course of the year - they fixed their 3rd line with Ponikarovsky and then Zajac returning, and they fixed their 4th line with Carter sliding down to play with Bernier and Gionta was a find. Sykora was still a weak link but he was being scratched by the end of the playoffs.

They were 4-3 in playoff OT, right? 2 wins against Florida, 1-1 against the Flyers, a win against the Rangers, and 2 losses against Los Angeles? I don't think Devils fans who remember the Cup years will ever feel confident in playoff OT, they had objectively awful results in OT over that stretch of years.

Yeah, but the worry for that team was them getting caved in that format. They flipped the Flyers series in OT in game 3, obviously saved the Florida series in OT twice, won the Rags series in OT, probably lost the Kings series by not getting one of those 2 games in OT. Kovy was obviously the superstar we needed + he had a f***ed back as the playoffs went on because of DeBoer's dumb defenseman type usage with him. I think we win the Kings series with a healthy Kovy but them's the breaks. And the one thing I think I liked about the 11/12 team was their comeback ability, it's something that the Devils teams post cap lockout didn't show too much of, they also had 3 30 goal scorers, the depth got better as the season went. They were the epitome of lose in round 1 or make a deep run type of team. That team was good but yeah like you said they need reinforcements and props on Lou for doing it as much as I've shat on him here for his late Devils years.

 

[Devs3cups]

I actually agree with Keefe that they haven't been defending horribly. They get tired at times, but overall their D game has been fine. Not December level, but not bad either.

The offense needs to start clicking again and I'm not too worried about that happening.

 

[Triumph]

Yeah, but the worry for that team was them getting caved in that format. They flipped the Flyers series in OT in game 3, obviously saved the Florida series in OT twice, won the Rags series in OT, probably lost the Kings series by not getting one of those 2 games in OT. Kovy was obviously the superstar we needed + he had a f***ed back as the playoffs went on because of DeBoer's dumb defenseman type usage with him. I think we win the Kings series with a healthy Kovy but them's the breaks. And the one thing I think I liked about the 11/12 team was their comeback ability, it's something that the Devils teams post cap lockout didn't show too much of, they also had 3 30 goal scorers, the depth got better as the season went. They were the epitome of lose in round 1 or make a deep run type of team. That team was good but yeah like you said they need reinforcements and props on Lou for doing it as much as I've shat on him here for his late Devils years.

I love that 2011-12 team but the Kings were objectively way better and the Devils didn't just have Kovalchuk injured, I think just about all of the non-Henrique forwards were nursing something by the end of the season. They were being absolutely run out of the building in the final 3 games but Brodeur played great and the Devils got some bounces in those first 2, but it all fell apart in Game 6.

 

[ZachaFlockaFlame]

I actually agree with Keefe that they haven't been defending horribly. They get tired at times, but overall their D game has been fine. Not December level, but not bad either.

The offense needs to start clicking again and I'm not too worried about that happening.

This was kinda my worry when hiring a coach, delicate balance of keeping the Ruff high powered offense style + having them being slightly more aware defensively. I think Keefe is trying to push them to be uber conservative and they're having a tough time a little bit sustaining it over the course of the year. The finishing issue is still a big concern in my eyes and I just don't want Fitz to do something very dumb like trading Nemec for a rental

I love that 2011-12 team but the Kings were objectively way better and the Devils didn't just have Kovalchuk injured, I think just about all of the non-Henrique forwards were nursing something by the end of the season. They were being absolutely run out of the building in the final 3 games but Brodeur played great and the Devils got some bounces in those first 2, but it all fell apart in Game 6.

Kings were a horse after they got Jeff Carter, I'm not denying that. Just saying that 11-12 team was not bad, they played in the most stacked division and people around the league shat on them cause of the no name defense playing well + people thought they were shootout merchants. They were basically what the Islanders were in their 2020/2021 runs which isn't shocking considering who the GM was for both teams lol

 

[Better Call Sal]

By the same token, the team's recent history means they deserve less benefit of the doubt than say, Colorado or Florida going through a similar stretch. That's the crux of a lot of this back-and-forth and what the other anti-doomers conveniently ignore. No, what happened last year or three years ago doesn't mean they'll spiral out of control, but it also suggests they deserve a bit more scrutiny for 'stretches like this' than a team that has had more recent success.

That’s fine if you feel they don’t deserve some benefit of the doubt, but I feel like the stretch from late October through late December holds more weight than this stretch does. Again, I know I’ll take my lumps for being more optimistic than most but I have a hard time putting more stock into this stretch when I’ve seen these same players play up to the competitive level that I expect.

I’m not in the business of trying to be proven right or not. I’m a fan who invests in the guys who want to be here and seeing them succeed. I believe this group has what it takes and that Fitz will provide the reinforcements since he knows what this team needs. I really think we’ve gotten a shorter end of the stick schedule wise, excuse or not, and am honestly looking forward to the 4 Nations break when it comes.

 

[JK3]