Prospect Info: Semi-Annual Prospect Poll: NYR Prospect #6

[kovazub94]

In baseball, those are the guys you'd label as "4A" players--too good for AAA ball, but not good enough for regular MLB action. Any way you slice it though, they're not able to perform consistently at the highest level.

To your point about particular players not having the skill set to play a bottom six energy role: it's absolutely spot on, and I think it reinforces my point about Buchnevich. He's almost certainly not going to be a guy that kills penalties, or provides energy from a third line role. That's just not his game. He's going to be an offensively-oriented top-six winger, or not play in the NHL. His performance in the KHL thus far is impressive, but it has no bearing on whether he can succeed as an NHL player.

I don't think we're really in disagreement about anything. I just take performance in any non-NHL league--AHL, KHL, SHL, whatever--with a heavy grain of salt. For every one player whose performance translates to the NHL, there are five guys who don't come anywhere close. And that might be me being generous to the other leagues.

I don't think you wanted to be so categorical because it would be applicable to all prospects (whether in KHL or AHL) that haven't reached NHL yet. It's more important to view overall quality of the league, how well a prospect performs there (and at what age) and whether the skill set used is going to translate well to NHL.

Prospect Current League Current Age Projected level in NHL

Buchnevich KHL 18 Top 6 wing

Lindberg AHL 22 Top 9 center

Fast AHL 22 Top 6 wing

Kristo AHL 22 Top 6 wing

 

[nyr2k2]

I don't think you wanted to be so categorical because it would be applicable to all prospects (whether in KHL or AHL) that haven't reached NHL yet. It's more important to view overall quality of the league, how well a prospect performs there (and at what age) and whether the skill set used is going to translate well to NHL.

Prospect Current League Current Age Projected level in NHL

Buchnevich KHL 18 Top 6 wing

Lindberg AHL 22 Top 9 center

Fast AHL 22 Top 6 wing

Kristo AHL 22 Top 6 wing

It does apply to any prospect in any league, I absolutely agree. And I agree with your overall point on how to assess a prospect.

My original post was in response to your assertion that people don't understand the quality of hockey in the KHL. To the contrary; I think most people do understand the quality of the league. However, they also understand that it is a significantly different beast than the NHL and one needs to consider a great many more aspects of a player's game when making a projection (or ranking).

When Jonathan Marchessault was tearing up the AHL, I said to temper expectations, because the AHL is not the NHL and production in the former does not necessarily predict production in the latter. Most people understood that, and knew it without me saying it. The same would hold true for Buchnevich or any other player in any other league. Buchnevich is a good prospect not because of his performance in the KHL; he's a good prospect because he has a terrific offensive skill set, and his performance in the KHL just reinforces that he's developing well.

One last point--Buchnevich plays on the third line in Severstal and receives ice time commensurate with that designation. It doesn't change the discussion in any way, but it should be noted.

 

[Fitzy]

You all have seen just how difficult it is for a player to break into the top 6 in the NHL. There are a lot of skilled players out there competing for those spots, and unless you really have the stuff, the spots usually go to more versatile guys like Hagelin, Callahan, Kreider who can play both in the top 6 and the bottom 6.

Guys like Buchnevich are top 6 or bust, and that hurts their chances. It is good that Buch is off to a good start, I'm thrilled about it. But he still has a much better chance of not making it than he does of becoming an NHL top 6 forward.

 

[bernmeister]

Coke and Pepsi among these names, cases for and against on each one.

Went with Allen; prob. lesser ceiling than others, but still a good ceiling, and reasonable to think he may be a mid pair, versatile on either side, and ready as soon as we are.

Pls add Boo, Andersson

 

[Beacon]

In baseball, those are the guys you'd label as "4A" players--too good for AAA ball, but not good enough for regular MLB action. Any way you slice it though, they're not able to perform consistently at the highest level.

That is bad for a 28 year old, but a hell of an accomplished for a teen. I would say Miller is a AAAA player.

His performance in the KHL thus far is impressive, but it has no bearing on whether he can succeed as an NHL player.

That's an overstatement. Good play in Russia is a better omen than bad play. I have a lot more hope for Butcher than Pashnin because one is good in the K and one is still crap.

I don't think we're really in disagreement about anything. I just take performance in any non-NHL league--AHL, KHL, SHL, whatever--with a heavy grain of salt. For every one player whose performance translates to the NHL, there are five guys who don't come anywhere close. And that might be me being generous to the other leagues.

This is why they are prospects and not players. But if Butcher keeps playing well and improving, he will be an exciting prospect. If this time next year he is a legitimate first liner in the KHL, we will have to consider him a top prospect.

 

[Beacon]

I don't think you wanted to be so categorical because it would be applicable to all prospects (whether in KHL or AHL) that haven't reached NHL yet. It's more important to view overall quality of the league, how well a prospect performs there (and at what age) and whether the skill set used is going to translate well to NHL.

Prospect Current League Current Age Projected level in NHL

Buchnevich KHL 18 Top 6 wing

Lindberg AHL 22 Top 9 center

Fast AHL 22 Top 6 wing

Kristo AHL 22 Top 6 wing

Lindberg is Hartford's top center. On almost any AHL team, he would be a first or second line center. He is definitely not a top-9 guy in Hartford.

 

[Fitzy]

I'm used to defensemen having an easier time breaking into NYR comfortably, perhaps in part to Tortorella's system. Made it easier on defensemen, harder on creative forwards.

So you could argue that AV's system is more becoming of Buchnevich than Conor Allen. I still rate Allen higher though. I see the same thing in him I did in Sauer... potential to be a good defensive defenseman without a lot of flash to his game.

 

[slipknottin]

Lindberg is Hartford's top center. On almost any AHL team, he would be a first or second line center. He is definitely not a top-9 guy in Hartford.

Well he's top line when Miller isn't there.

 

[Ian]

Lindberg, quite easily for me.

Age, current level of play and ability to fill a needed role on this team in the future are the factors for me.

Add Nieves.

 

[kovazub94]

Lindberg is Hartford's top center. On almost any AHL team, he would be a first or second line center. He is definitely not a top-9 guy in Hartford.

Apologies. I just realized that I confused both you and nyr2k2 with "sliding" headers - the last column meant to reflect their potential realistic position at NHL (i.e. Buch would be a top 6 wing while Lindberg - top 9 center). Probably should've added not just their respective leagues but also the currently achieved position as well (top 9 for Buchnevich, and first line or conservatively top 6 for Lindberg).

 

[Beer League Sniper]

I don't think you wanted to be so categorical because it would be applicable to all prospects (whether in KHL or AHL) that haven't reached NHL yet. It's more important to view overall quality of the league, how well a prospect performs there (and at what age) and whether the skill set used is going to translate well to NHL.

Prospect Current League Current Age Projected level in NHL

Buchnevich KHL 18 Top 6 wing

Lindberg AHL 22 Top 9 center

Fast AHL 22 Top 6 wing

Kristo AHL 22 Top 6 wing

Lindberg is Hartford's top center. On almost any AHL team, he would be a first or second line center. He is definitely not a top-9 guy in Hartford.

I think you misunderstood him. Those designations are, I think, what he projects them to be in the NHL.

 

[kovazub94]

You all have seen just how difficult it is for a player to break into the top 6 in the NHL. There are a lot of skilled players out there competing for those spots, and unless you really have the stuff, the spots usually go to more versatile guys like Hagelin, Callahan, Kreider who can play both in the top 6 and the bottom 6.

Guys like Buchnevich are top 6 or bust, and that hurts their chances. It is good that Buch is off to a good start, I'm thrilled about it. But he still has a much better chance of not making it than he does of becoming an NHL top 6 forward.

Why is that? He made a couple of good defensive plays in Sweden, his defensive positioning was sound and I haven't seen or read about his deficiencies on a defensive side or being a floater. It looked like he can well read a play and position himself accordingly. He doesn't shy away from physical play, pretty good on boards and goes into dirty areas around the net. What I'm saying is that he could turn out to be a top 9 forward (like Kulemin or Ponikarovsky if we are talking Russian wings).

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

Why is that? He made a couple of good defensive plays in Sweden, his defensive positioning was sound and I haven't seen or read about his deficiencies on a defensive side or being a floater. It looked like he can well read a play and position himself accordingly. He doesn't shy away from physical play, pretty good on boards and goes into dirty areas around the net. What I'm saying is that he could turn out to be a top 9 forward (like Kulemin or Ponikarovsky if we are talking Russian wings).

Well, on the one hand it speaks volumes that the Russian coach had him out there on two of the last three shifts while protecting a one-goal lead in the bronze medal game.

On the other hand (and I think that this is what most people are hanging their hat on), he lost his man on the one goal that Canada did score.

 

[Beacon]

Next round: http://hfboards.mandatory.com/showthread.php?t=1578449

 

[kovazub94]

Well, on the one hand it speaks volumes that the Russian coach had him out there on two of the last three shifts while protecting a one-goal lead in the bronze medal game.

On the other hand (and I think that this is what most people are hanging their hat on), he lost his man on the one goal that Canada did score.

Did you forget to add a sarcastic smiley? If this is actually a true reason it'd be typical HFB - one defensive mistake by 18 year old = bust

 

[nyr2k2]

I don't know, unless Buchnevich radically changes his approach, he's a guy strongly oriented to the offensive side of the game. Is he capable of playing adequate defense and working hard on the boards? Sure, but that's not his game. Dom Moore looked like Crosby the other night on that goal, but that's not his game.

 

[Fitzy]

Why is that? He made a couple of good defensive plays in Sweden, his defensive positioning was sound and I haven't seen or read about his deficiencies on a defensive side or being a floater. It looked like he can well read a play and position himself accordingly. He doesn't shy away from physical play, pretty good on boards and goes into dirty areas around the net. What I'm saying is that he could turn out to be a top 9 forward (like Kulemin or Ponikarovsky if we are talking Russian wings).

You will notice that there are not many bottom 6 Russians in the NHL. That has nothing to do with them not being able to play good defense; what it means that if you have a player who is good enough to play top 6 in the KHL and not here, they usually choose the KHL.

Bottom 6 guys in the NHL regularly make from 1 to 3 million a year. Frequently that kind of player can get more or similar close to home in Russia. That is why year in and year out most of the Russian NHLers are top 6.