Proposal: Seattle & Montreal: Guhle + Calgary 1st for Matty Beniers + 2nd (Toronto)

[majormajor]

He's getting some of them, but Suzuki played 60 more PP minutes than anyone else on the Habs, and averaged over 3 minutes per game on the PP over 82 games. Beniers is 2nd on the team in total PP ice time (only 7 minutes ahead of 5th), and is averaging just under 2:30 per game on the PP. That's not the same usage.

And look at shots on goal on the PP. Suzuki took 43 shots on the PP, almost double what Beniers has this year. I can't help but thinking that Suzuki's PP shots increased from 16 in the 56 game shortened season (23.4 shots per 82 pace) to 43 in part because he was one of the the best healthy options to take a PP shot due to so many injuries. And that makes me think he also got more touches, which resulted in more assists too.

Beniers has never taken more than 28 shots on the PP in any season, and has 23 so far this season. But, with other healthy options who can also shoot the puck decently well, why would they want Beniers taking so many more shots? With other healthy options who can pass the puck decently well, why would they constantly give it to Beniers? With fewer touches on the PP, you get fewer chances for PP points.

Suzuki's shot being a lot better is going to explain that. It's really not a great offensive arsenal in Seattle, just a lot of 2nd line and 3rd line type guys. McCann has at times been a pretty good PP triggerman. But for the most part, it's been a land of opportunity for any young player with a good shot to step in and take the job (right now Jani Nyman might just be taking the job and keeping it). If Suzuki was in Beniers shoes in Seattle, you can bet he would have been given every shooting role on the PP.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Suzuki's shot being a lot better is going to explain that. It's really not a great offensive arsenal in Seattle, just a lot of 2nd line and 3rd line type guys. McCann has at times been a pretty good PP triggerman. But for the most part, it's been a land of opportunity for any young player with a good shot to step in and take the job (right now Jani Nyman might just be taking the job and keeping it). If Suzuki was in Beniers shoes in Seattle, you can bet he would have been given every shooting role on the PP.

Through the end of his 22 year old season, Suzuki had 49 career goals on 434 shots, with only 30 at ES. Beniers currently has 57 career goals on 413 shots, with 43 at ES. If Suzuki's shot was better, why is it only on the PP for one season that we see Suzuki taking so many more shots and scoring more, with Beniers scoring more at ES? Shouldn't a better shot also help score more ES goals?

 

[majormajor]

Through the end of his 22 year old season, Suzuki had 49 career goals on 434 shots, with only 30 at ES. Beniers currently has 57 career goals on 413 shots, with 43 at ES. If Suzuki's shot was better, why is it only on the PP for one season that we see Suzuki taking so many more shots and scoring more, with Beniers scoring more at ES? Shouldn't a better shot also help score more ES goals?

So my process on this would actually just be to study the player's shooting ability - and there you can see more obviously that Suzuki has a wicked shot and Beniers doesn't.

From that starting point I would then ask why Beniers scored more ES goals than Suzuki did and look at the stats. I don't have time right now to study the shooting percentages, 5v5 G/60s, and so on.

 

[ginomini]

Through the end of his 22 year old season, Suzuki had 49 career goals on 434 shots, with only 30 at ES. Beniers currently has 57 career goals on 413 shots, with 43 at ES. If Suzuki's shot was better, why is it only on the PP for one season that we see Suzuki taking so many more shots and scoring more, with Beniers scoring more at ES? Shouldn't a better shot also help score more ES goals?

Just watch them play would be my answer. Suzuki has an amazing shot, Beniers doesn't. That's fairly easy to see.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

So my process on this would actually just be to study the player's shooting ability - and there you can see more obviously that Suzuki has a wicked shot and Beniers doesn't.

From that starting point I would then ask why Beniers scored more ES goals than Suzuki did and look at the stats. I don't have time right now to study the shooting percentages, 5v5 G/60s, and so on.

I admittedly don't watch either of them all that much, but from the highlights I'm finding I don't see a huge difference in their shots. From what I see, they both have decent shots, and the goals they score seem to be pretty similar.

And, looking at ES, Beniers has the advantage. Little bit better shooting %, slightly higher G/60 at ES, similar production, it all seems like Beniers is equal or a tad better. But on the PP during his 22 year old season, Suzuki almost doubled how many shots he took on the PP over the previous year (adjusted for 82 games. Did his shot get better or did the other guys with decent shots spend a bunch of the season injured?

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Just watch them play would be my answer. Suzuki has an amazing shot, Beniers doesn't. That's fairly easy to see.

If his shot is so amazing, why is Beniers scoring more goals on fewer shots at ES?

 

[majormajor]

I admittedly don't watch either of them all that much, but from the highlights I'm finding I don't see a huge difference in their shots. From what I see, they both have decent shots, and the goals they score seem to be pretty similar.

And, looking at ES, Beniers has the advantage. Little bit better shooting %, slightly higher G/60 at ES, similar production, it all seems like Beniers is equal or a tad better. But on the PP during his 22 year old season, Suzuki almost doubled how many shots he took on the PP over the previous year (adjusted for 82 games. Did his shot get better or did the other guys with decent shots spend a bunch of the season injured?

Often times players with good shots will rely on volume shooting from worse shooting position, while guys with weaker shots will rely on creating better chances before shooting. I'm not saying that is the answer in this case, but it is a common enough pattern.

 

[ginomini]

If his shot is so amazing, why is Beniers scoring more goals on fewer shots at ES?

Because he is primarly a playmaker? Have you ever watched Suzuki play? He is not a shooter at 5v5.

Edit: just wanna add more context. Beniers is probably a better shooter off the rush, Suzuki is not a rush shooter. But when he is set up in the offensive zone he has a wicked wrister, very precise and powerful. It's a weapon that is especially useful on the powerplay, much less at 5v5.

Beniers is simply not a particularly gifted player from a static position (which is what you need on the pp), he relies a lot on movement to create offense. I don't think he will ever be a very good PP player for that reason.

 

[IWantSakicAsMyGM]

Because he is primarly a playmaker? Have you ever watched Suzuki play? He is not a shooter at 5v5.

Edit: just wanna add more context. Beniers is probably a better shooter off the rush, Suzuki is not a rush shooter. But when he is set up in the offensive zone he has a wicked wrister, very precise and powerful. It's a weapon that is especially useful on the powerplay, much less at 5v5.

Beniers is simply not a particularly gifted player from a static position (which is what you need on the pp), he relies a lot on movement to create offense. I don't think he will ever be a very good PP player for that reason.

I've seen him some, and agree he's not a shooter at 5v5, which is why I question him having a better shot overall. If it's simply that he's better able to shoot when set up, while Beniers is better able to get good shots off on the rush, that would seem to support my idea that it's essentially a coin flip between them up through their 22 year old seasons.

 

[bleuetbio]

This trade is too risky for Montreal. Guhle is already good 2 ways top pairing, which is could be used as offensive or defensive way. With Hutson as the 2nd LD on the top 4, I think we'll need this profile on the top 4.

I still like Beniers upside, but even if the guy was 2nd OV pick but I dont see the rush to trade Guhle for a 2nd rd pick. The only thing with Guhle is injuries.