GDT: Seattle Expansion Draft 8:00 P.M. ET ESPN2

[OmNomNom]

Wait, there were no side deals?

So we (the bottom 5 team in this league) have lost good, cost controlled 4th liner in Nathan Bastian, while Flyers lost Twarynski, Chicago lost John f......g Quenneville, LA lost MacDermid, Columbus lost Bayreuther, Carolina lost Geekie, San Jose lost Alex True etc.

Quite disappointing, however to avoid having either McLeod or Bastian exposed, Fitzgerald would have to trade quality forward for a quality d-man, instead we have lost Bastian and have used protection slot on Siegenthaler who may not even become NHL regular.

I know that this post will be countered by arguments that Bastian is replaceable, however I believe that having good 4th line (and Wood/McLeod/Bastian have been exactly that) is very helpful, Islanders being a fantastic example why this is the case.

don't the islanders have a reputation for counting hits more than other arenas?

also if no side deals were made, then it should support the idea that prices were high, in which case our hands were tied.

 

[Triumph]

Wait, there were no side deals?

So we (the bottom 5 team in this league) have lost good, cost controlled 4th liner in Nathan Bastian, while Flyers lost Twarynski, Chicago lost John f......g Quenneville, LA lost MacDermid, Columbus lost Bayreuther, Carolina lost Geekie, San Jose lost Alex True etc.

Quite disappointing, however to avoid having either McLeod or Bastian exposed, Fitzgerald would have to trade quality forward for a quality d-man, instead we have lost Bastian and have used protection slot on Siegenthaler who may not even become NHL regular.

You should understand the rules before you post like this. The Devils had to expose 2 forwards who played 27+ games last season or 54 over the last 2 who was signed for next year. Not many forwards on the team meet the criteria - Johnsson was one. Trading Bastian makes no sense because who is going to protect Bastian over the other guys they did protect? There are certainly some teams that could've - are they going to give anything at all for Bastian? And if not, why would the Devils make that move to lose another player and Bastian?

I know that this post will be countered by arguments that Bastian is replaceable, however I believe that having good 4th line (and Wood/McLeod/Bastian have been exactly that) is very helpful, Islanders being a fantastic example why this is the case.

Having a good 4th line is nice, but it is better to have a good 1st line, a good 2nd line, or a good 3rd line - these are all more preferable outcomes than having a good 4th line. The Islanders, a slightly above-average team over the last 3 years, are a good example of how when your other lines are mediocre relative to the league, that people will talk up your 4th line when it gets results far beyond expectation.

 

[hidek91]

don't the islanders have a reputation for counting hits more than other arenas?

also if no side deals were made, then it should support the idea that prices were high, in which case our hands were tied.

No side deals with Seattle because trades with other teams have happened e. g. we traded with Colorado to acquire Graves. They knew that expansion draft would happen for over a year, they could have adjusted their team structure (and to an extent they did because without Graves trade they'd waste protection slot on Subban or Butcher).

Regarding Isles, I'm not talking about stats per se but the overall impact their 4th line had, it was perfectly functional shutdown line used against opposition top lines.

 

[MartyOwns]

don't the islanders have a reputation for counting hits more than other arenas?

also if no side deals were made, then it should support the idea that prices were high, in which case our hands were tied.

lou personally counts all hits for his team. every time someone throws a hit, he carves a marker into concrete with his bare hands, then he and conte wrestle shirtless until the next hit is thrown.

 

[OmNomNom]

No side deals with Seattle because trades with other teams have happened e. g. we traded with Colorado to acquire Graves. They knew that expansion draft would happen for over a year, they could have adjusted their team structure (and to an extent they did because without Graves trade they'd waste protection slot on Subban or Butcher).

Regarding Isles, I'm not talking about stats per se but the overall impact their 4th line had, it was perfectly functional shutdown line used against opposition top lines.

i tried digging into it, i think they have a reputation they don't support anymore
NHL Lines Advanced Stats

 

[hidek91]

You should understand the rules before you post like this. The Devils had to expose 2 forwards who played 27+ games last season or 54 over the last 2 who was signed for next year. Not many forwards on the team meet the criteria - Johnsson was one. Trading Bastian makes no sense because who is going to protect Bastian over the other guys they did protect? There are certainly some teams that could've - are they going to give anything at all for Bastian? And if not, why would the Devils make that move to lose another player and Bastian?

This problem (that was created by playing AHL kids and trading away veterans at the TDL) could have been fixed by trading AHLer for, let's say, Filppula or Cogliano and signing this player to a one year contract.

Regarding the potential trade, the idea would be to trade any of the protected forwards or Bastian for equivalent d-man, rather than losing Bastian. In this case, the trade for Graves doesn't happen (Maltsev is exempt from the draft). Easier said than done, that's why I judge it as a minor disappointment rather than obvious blunder from our GM.

Having a good 4th line is nice, but it is better to have a good 1st line, a good 2nd line, or a good 3rd line - these are all more preferable outcomes than having a good 4th line. The Islanders, a slightly above-average team over the last 3 years, are a good example of how when your other lines are mediocre relative to the league, that people will talk up your 4th line when it gets results far beyond expectation.

Agree with the first part, disagree with the second one. IMO, they are a legitimate contender and have multiple things working well for them, 4th line being just one of them.

 

[hidek91]

i tried digging into it, i think they have a reputation they don't support anymore
NHL Lines Advanced Stats

Good find, looking at the last season:

1) In the playoffs (smaller albeit still significant sample size) they had below average xG%, however actual goals for and against were equal.
2) In the regular season they had positive xG% and interestingly, their goals for and against were again equal.

All while being used against opponents' top lines. Of course good goaltending and good defence also plays part in this, however I would say that they're still pretty good 4th line.

 

[Triumph]

This problem (that was created by playing AHL kids and trading away veterans at the TDL) could have been fixed by trading AHLer for, let's say, Filppula or Cogliano and signing this player to a one year contract.

Again, you don't understand the rules - players do not become exempt or available by dint of how much they play. The Devils had to expose 2 players like this, but Bastian is still also exposed even if he doesn't play. Trading for someone who you don't want and signing him just to try to keep the assets for Bastian that you then trade for? It's pointless. I guess you could be arguing that to take Bastian as an unsigned player represents a risk because they have to take 20 players under contract, but they could've just taken someone from e.g. Chicago and also taken Bastian.

Regarding the potential trade, the idea would be to trade any of the protected forwards or Bastian for equivalent d-man, rather than losing Bastian. In this case, the trade for Graves doesn't happen (Maltsev is exempt from the draft). Easier said than done, that's why I judge it as a minor disappointment rather than obvious blunder from our GM.

It doesn't work because almost everybody has a better forward to protect than Bastian, and teams don't want to lose a D man, especially if (and this is what happened with Vegas too), Seattle goes very heavy on D, which they did, drafting almost the maximum number of defensemen possible.

Agree with the first part, disagree with the second one. IMO, they are a legitimate contender and have multiple things working well for them, 4th line being just one of them.

They're an average team riding a playoff heater. They were pretty good in 2019-20 in the bubble. Not good this year until they played the Lightning. The 4th line has also stopped riding that Cizikas shooting bender, Clutterbuck is probably finished and Martin was never any good to begin with.

 

[OmNomNom]

Good find, looking at the last season:

1) In the playoffs (smaller albeit still significant sample size) they had below average xG%, however actual goals for and against were equal.
2) In the regular season they had positive xG% and interestingly, their goals for and against were again equal.

All while being used against opponents' top lines. Of course good goaltending and good defence also plays part in this, however I would say that they're still pretty good 4th line.

i don't doubt it, but i'm curious if they're actually utilized against top lines less than we think. against other 4th lines? solid enough i'd imagine

 

[hidek91]

Again, you don't understand the rules - players do not become exempt or available by dint of how much they play. The Devils had to expose 2 players like this, but Bastian is still also exposed even if he doesn't play. Trading for someone who you don't want and signing him just to try to keep the assets for Bastian that you then trade for? It's pointless. I guess you could be arguing that to take Bastian as an unsigned player represents a risk because they have to take 20 players under contract, but they could've just taken someone from e.g. Chicago and also taken Bastian.

No, I understand the rules, you don't seem to understand my point. The problem of having two forwards that fit criteria of games played can be solved easily by a trade (trading for a forward who fits this criteria, there are dozens of them). Then you swap a forward for a d-man and protect:

Seven of Hischier, Bratt, Kuok, Shara, Zacha, McLeod, Wood, Bastian. The one you don't protect is traded for d-man X.
You protect Severson, Siegenthaler and d-man X.

So you need to make (at least) two separate trades, however the trade for a forward who just fits the criteria of the games played is very easy.
The second trade (swapping forward for d-man) is much harder and that's why I'm just slightly disappointed with this expansion draft.

 

[Guttersniped]

Well, I live relatively near Seattle, so I guess it is up to me to pick up a Nate Bastian jersey.

I think I'll wait 'til he actually plays a game and doesn't get moved...

Definitely wait (my brother has a Bastian jersey).

 

[The Wumpus]

Is the idea that since Seattle had to take more players than needed for a roster, and players with any sort of salary are so hard to move, that he went for players like Quenneville and Bayreuther on purpose to sort of "pass" on those picks because he wouldn't have been able to move actual NHLers? Is this some sort of 7D chess, galaxy brain thing, or was he forced to switch strategies at the last minute because no one would bite on his reportedly absurd prices for side deals?

 

[Guttersniped]

Wait, there were no side deals?

So we (the bottom 5 team in this league) have lost good, cost controlled 4th liner in Nathan Bastian, while Flyers lost Twarynski, Chicago lost John f......g Quenneville, LA lost MacDermid, Columbus lost Bayreuther, Carolina lost Geekie, San Jose lost Alex True etc.

Quite disappointing, however to avoid having either McLeod or Bastian exposed, Fitzgerald would have to trade quality forward for a quality d-man, instead we have lost Bastian and have used protection slot on Siegenthaler who may not even become NHL regular.

I know that this post will be countered by arguments that Bastian is replaceable, however I believe that having good 4th line (and Wood/McLeod/Bastian have been exactly that) is very helpful, Islanders being a fantastic example why this is the case.

Because those teams didn’t have a forward as good as Bastian on a cheap deal. Fitz could protect 10 skaters (7F+3D) or 8 skaters (8 F or D) there is no way to protect more forwards than we did.

Things that can make you feel better:
1) I guess the Pens cleared cap space but they are much worse without both McCann and Tanev and getting back Filip Hallander and 2023 7th doesn’t exactly make it seem all worthwhile. (And they arguably should have protected McCann.)

2) While I obviously brook no baseless Bastian slander, Winnipeg got f***ed harder, Appleton is cheap ginger-haired delight.

3) The Oilers off-season becoming a peak Oilers-style train wreak days before the NHL Entry Level Draft, which has to be some sort of land speed record. (I’m sure that second Mike Smith year is going to be swell too.)

4) Flyers needed to move salary and having a lot go away with none coming back would have been very helpful for them so this wasn’t so great.

There’s more but I got make dinner. Francis wasn’t making cheap, or even reasonable, side deals to keep players. Bastian haters are wrong and should feel shame for their dastardly ways but there was no reasonable way to prevent this. Poor one out for Nate and root for the guy (and hope McLeod keeps improving.)

 

[Triumph]

No, I understand the rules, you don't seem to understand my point. The problem of having two forwards that fit criteria of games played can be solved easily by a trade (trading for a forward who fits this criteria, there are dozens of them). Then you swap a forward for a d-man and protect:

Seven of Hischier, Bratt, Kuok, Shara, Zacha, McLeod, Wood, Bastian. The one you don't protect is traded for d-man X.
You protect Severson, Siegenthaler and d-man X.

So you need to make (at least) two separate trades, however the trade for a forward who just fits the criteria of the games played is very easy.
The second trade (swapping forward for d-man) is much harder and that's why I'm just slightly disappointed with this expansion draft.

And it's silly to make the first trade because now you have a player you don't want, and then now you're trying to trade Bastian, a player with extremely minimal value, to someone else at a time when very few trades want to be completed. I don't see how this is optimal at all. How is it better to have a player you don't want?

 

[Camille the Eel]

This is a good break for Bastian I think. Seattle will be a good town to play in.

 

[HersheyBob27]

This is a good break for Bastian I think. Seattle will be a good town to play in.

Probably can’t wipe the smile off his face he just got a 10% raise going to seattle due to no state tax. I was told they locked in their devil pick long ago so they seem to really like him. Can picture him on a sweet line with Tanev and Blackwell. Gonna miss you Nate cheers

 

[Guttersniped]

I think it's hard to take a guy that just cleared waivers. Opens you to a lot of criticism. 30 GMs passed on him, so if it doesn't work out you'll get second guessed.

And it means Francis can’t just move him for pick and retaining salary (particularly for multiple seasons) or taking a crappy deal back isn’t exactly an enticing idea.

I know I’m repeating myself but Vegas ended up with surplus random crap players. I don’t want to try to defend every choice here and I believe the three UFAs that Vegas drafted and who walked were involved with the side deals but those UFAs served multiple purposes. Vegas only has so many roster spots and contract spots.

They dumped five players before season started but had to take some players back in those deals. (And a lot more teams had cap space in 2017 off-season.) They lost Shipachyov because of an overcrowded roster.

They were taking a chance on a lot of fringe guys but the problem of casting you net wide is you have a lot crap you got to deal with.

And the 50 contract limit can be an issue during the season. Vegas had 35 skaters and 5 goalies play for them that season.

2017-18 Vegas Golden Knights Roster and Statistics | Hockey-Reference.com

And these eight players had two-way deals and were on the Chicago Wolves roster but not main one.

Teemu Pulkkinen
TJ Tynan
Paul Thompson
Tobias Lindberg
Keegan Kolesar
Chris Casto
Nick Suzuki
Nicolas Hague

I’m not saying that contract limits is a big contributing factor of this, because f*** if I know. (I still looked up these contracts because I’m an idiot.) I just know constructing a NHL team is going to be complicated than lining up names on a chart and adding up the cap hit and going “see, it works!”.

I also don’t agree that Francis should have grabbed every sketchy expensive asset of questionable value because having the assets is always beneficial. People are having trouble dumping contracts, so he was wary of crappy hard to dump contracts.

JVR is the only one I really kind of question because they could use really have used that scoring.
Geekie = a dearth of centers and ton of defensemen, Domi = shoulder surgery, then UFA Taresanko = Dunn was arguably the best defenseman in draft, shoulder questions

 

[ScottyK]