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Season Tracker Thread

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zeke

zeke

The Dube Abides
Mar 14, 2005
66,937
36,957
Was trying to figure out which thread to update this in and then realized I'm finally allowed to make my own threads again.

So here goes. I'll try to keep these pretty charts updated.

Screenshot_20211025-095623_Sheets.jpg


Screenshot_20211025-095902_Sheets.jpg
Click to read more...
 
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12th in xGF is pretty insane considering what we've actually scored. With that said, I'd expect that to be even higher considering the desperation I guess?
 
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I think by game 25 - 30 well see if the leafs having a solid XGF% will lead to actual success.

7 games is too small a sample to determine we are the 24th or whatever best team in the league

25/30 games is 30-37% of the season and by that point if we are mediocre/bad I wouldn't expect anything to change for the year.
 
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hamzarocks said:
I think by game 25 - 30 well see if the leafs having a solid XGF% will lead to actual success.
Click to expand...

Even if they do, that xGF% isn't good enough.

That's back to a babcockian "just above average" xgf% rather than the elite xgf% we grew accustomed to under Keefe.

They gotta do better. Especially defensively.
 
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zeke said:
Even if they do, that xGF% isn't good enough.

That's back to a babcockian "just above average" xgf% rather than the elite xgf% we grew accustomed to under Keefe.

They gotta do better. Especially defensively.
Click to expand...
Good thing that elite Keefe xgf% didn't lead to jack shit for success anyway. Hell we even lost to worse teams in the playoffs.
 
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BrannigansLaw said:
Title of this thread should be Reality vs. BS.

When you look at the kind of shots and possession this team has, it's clear they'll look good on the "advanced" stats charts but when you watch the actual games they aren't doing anything to suggest those stats mean anything.
Click to expand...
That xGF is trash unless the goal is to be a middle of the pack team. You clearly have no idea what you're saying and exposed your personal bias instead. It's Reality vs Reality.
 
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zeke said:
Even if they do, that xGF% isn't good enough.

That's back to a babcockian "just above average" xgf% rather than the elite xgf% we grew accustomed to under Keefe.

They gotta do better. Especially defensively.
Click to expand...
12th isn't bad, and the sample with Keefe is skewed with the North Division, which even if we accept that quality wasn't poor, still gave any team an advantage where they only played 56 games vs the same teams allowing them to learn the playstyles and strategies of the teams. Being in the top 10ish in XGF% is good enough if it comes with a similar top 10ish play in the pts%.

The regular season is a tune-up for the big dance, for this team. As long as they continue to improve month over month in both quality of chances generated/given and amount of possession (which XGF% measures) and pts% as a team, I will feel confident for the team. We don't need to blow our load in the first month and go incredible before having a fallback (like we did in 2018-2019 when we were elite up until game 30 of the year).

I Will be happy with seeing our stars/depth and everyone else continuously improving as the season moves forward. I do think we will be at a level by the deadline where we make a decision on adding a rental again, probably a guy like Rakell. Think the leafs will get going once we have a goalie tandem, as Campbell isn't a goalie who handles a starter's workload well but rather a 1A with us having Hutchinson being as good as we would expect David Ayres to have been.

I still have confidence things will work out, with Marner being a ppg player on a down year, not a 20 or 30 point player like he is now. We probably won't win the division and Matthews won't win the rocket but that is fine as long as the team begins to form chemistry and deliver to their potential down
 
ACC1224 said:
Guessing points pace isn't a thing anymore now that they've been shitting the bed?
Click to expand...

Hey c'mon, they're .667 against the North

.125 against everyone else, but maybe they'll shut the border again ?
 
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zeke said:
Even if they do, that xGF% isn't good enough.

That's back to a babcockian "just above average" xgf% rather than the elite xgf% we grew accustomed to under Keefe.

They gotta do better. Especially defensively.
Click to expand...

Not to mention a lot of their playstyle right now is fluff that pads advanced stats without threatening the other team.

Their high-quality chances are coming with limited traffic in front and that just doesn't cut it in the NHL. And when those chances are being taken by Marner... oh boy.

There's lots of work to do for Keefe.
 
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ACC1224 said:
Guessing points pace isn't a thing anymore now that they've been shitting the bed?
Click to expand...
On pace for a whopping 59 (rounded up out of pity) points. Just a hair short of the usual 94/5 to make the playoffs.

You won't see an "on pace for" stat from Dekes or Zeke until we're north of 95. So predictable.
 
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All Mod Cons said:
On pace for a whopping 59 (rounded up out of pity) points. Just a hair short of the usual 94/5 to make the playoffs.

You won't see an "on pace for" stat from Dekes or Zeke until we're north of 95. So predictable.
Click to expand...

Points% and points pace and record are all the exact same thing.

Every time you complain about one of them skewing stats somehow you're just making a comment on your own inability to understand what a team's record actually is.
 
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If you don't understand statistics or are not capable to have a conversation about them, nobody is obligating you to post in said thread. There are many other threads that you can visit.

I already thread banned people from this since it's clear they aren't interested in conversing like adults.
 
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