Toggle sidebar

Season Tracker Thread

  • Xenforo Cloud will be upgrading us to version 2.3.5 on March 3rd at 12 AM GMT. This version has increased stability and fixes several bugs. We expect downtime for the duration of the update. The admin team will continue to work on existing issues, templates and upgrade all necessary available addons to minimize impact of this new version. Click Here for Updates
Screenshot_20211113-084525_Sheets.jpg



Screenshot_20211113-084549_Sheets.jpg
 
  • Like
Reactions: kb
Zybalto said:
You go to evolving hockey to get those score-adjusted all situations xGF%?

I probably should start using those more TBH.
Click to expand...

Yeah from evolving.

The stat I think is appropriate here for simplicity and standings-like usage here - but breaking it down into game situations would still be more useful when really trying to look at what's going on with the team.
 
zeke said:
Yeah from evolving.

The stat I think is appropriate here for simplicity and standings-like usage here - but breaking it down into game situations would still be more useful when really trying to look at what's going on with the team.
Click to expand...

Yea, I break it down to 6 different things in the division thread (5v5 corsi, 5v5 xGF, PP xGF, PK xGA, team save %, team shooting %) along with NHL rank but even that feels like a ton of work. I really should throw a few bucks down on getting access to more premium content though. I spend enough frigging time on this stuff.
 
Zybalto said:
Yea, I break it down to 6 different things in the division thread (5v5 corsi, 5v5 xGF, PP xGF, PK xGA, team save %, team shooting %) along with NHL rank but even that feels like a ton of work. I really should throw a few bucks down on getting access to more premium content though. I spend enough frigging time on this stuff.
Click to expand...

Yeah tbh I don't even use much of their more advanced gar/war stuff but just for the basics it's worth the money for me.

If naturalstattrick.com just figured out how to give us a score-adjustment filter for situations other than just 5v5 I probably wouldn't be paying for evolving-hockey.com tbh.
 
EDIT - I apologize if this is the wrong place to ask this…but hopefully I learn something on the other side.

This is not a snide or sarcastic post, I genuinely want to talk about this stuff.

What does XGF%, or, to be honest, generally all advanced stats, have to do with wins?

I am trying to get into advanced stats, but have a tough time reconciling reading a stat, or a team’s rank in a particular stat, and determining just how that relates to winning percentage.

PIT - 7th in XGF%, yet 25th in Win%.

NYR - 15th in XGF%, yet 5th in Win%.

I love stats as much as the next guy, but I love stats that explain WHY something is the way it is. Plus, if stats can help gain an edge when finding value on, say, ProLine+….
 
Statsman1 said:
EDIT - I apologize if this is the wrong place to ask this…but hopefully I learn something on the other side.

This is not a snide or sarcastic post, I genuinely want to talk about this stuff.

What does XGF%, or, to be honest, generally all advanced stats, have to do with wins?

I am trying to get into advanced stats, but have a tough time reconciling reading a stat, or a team’s rank in a particular stat, and determining just how that relates to winning percentage.

PIT - 7th in XGF%, yet 25th in Win%.

NYR - 15th in XGF%, yet 5th in Win%.

I love stats as much as the next guy, but I love stats that explain WHY something is the way it is. Plus, if stats can help gain an edge when finding value on, say, ProLine+….
Click to expand...

1. Xgf% ignores goaltending completely, which is a huge part of both NYR and PIT discrepancies.

2. All stats - including Wins - are unreliable in the short term. It is very early days yet so I wouldn't put too much confidence in any number yet, including team record.

3. In general in the short term xgf% gives us a better idea of how teams are actually playing on the ice than anything else (goaltending excepted).
 
zeke said:
1. Xgf% ignores goaltending completely, which is a huge part of both NYR and PIT discrepancies.

2. All stats - including Wins - are unreliable in the short term. It is very early days yet so I wouldn't put too much confidence in any number yet, including team record.

3. In general in the short term xgf% gives us a better idea of how teams are actually playing on the ice than anything else (goaltending excepted).
Click to expand...

Hi Zeke, thank you for replying….

So, is the goal, so to speak, to have the teams’ Win% standings closely parallel the teams’ XGF% rank as time progresses?

And you say that the XGF% ignores goaltending…so, presumably, there are stats that measure relative goaltending results AND these stats are married somewhere in a stat that says “expected wins” or something?

With all the advanced stats out there, I feel like there must be something more reliable than a modified Pythagorean Theorem that would indicate a teams’ expected win%.

I want to believe. =)
 
Statsman1 said:
Hi Zeke, thank you for replying….

So, is the goal, so to speak, to have the teams’ Win% standings closely parallel the teams’ XGF% rank as time progresses?

And you say that the XGF% ignores goaltending…so, presumably, there are stats that measure relative goaltending results AND these stats are married somewhere in a stat that says “expected wins” or something?

With all the advanced stats out there, I feel like there must be something more reliable than a modified Pythagorean Theorem that would indicate a teams’ expected win%.

I want to believe. =)
Click to expand...

Sure, there's plenty of expected wins models out there, and all the models incorporate goaltending.

On this thread though I'm not interested in tracking the prediction models per se. This thread is just tracking what is actually happening this year so far.

But all models said the Leafs would be elite this year, for the record.
 
5 Game heater, 1 loss, 4 game heater

Very encouraging stuff. Our biggest problem right now is backup goaltending, Mirtle suggested that maybe if a vet gets waived we can get lucky and claim them. We'll have to play Woll or Hutch against a strong team a few times soon.
 
Punch Drunk Loov said:
5 Game heater, 1 loss, 4 game heater

Very encouraging stuff. Our biggest problem right now is backup goaltending, Mirtle suggested that maybe if a vet gets waived we can get lucky and claim them. We'll have to play Woll or Hutch against a strong team a few times soon.
Click to expand...
If your talking about the Islanders being a strong team, I've got some news for you. They are not. 2nd last in goals scored this year and although their goals against is still low, they average 3 goals against per game.
 
zeke said:
Sure, there's plenty of expected wins models out there, and all the models incorporate goaltending.

On this thread though I'm not interested in tracking the prediction models per se. This thread is just tracking what is actually happening this year so far.

But all models said the Leafs would be elite this year, for the record.
Click to expand...

Thanks, Zeke! I will dig into the stats and see what I can learn.
 
diehardleafsfan9878 said:
If your talking about the Islanders being a strong team, I've got some news for you. They are not. 2nd last in goals scored this year and although their goals against is still low, they average 3 goals against per game.
Click to expand...
They also have been on the road since the season began. I don't think anyone knows what they are yet, regardless it will be a tough game.
 
Confucius said:
4 of last years north teams in the top 11 league wide this year. Yeah, that North division was weak. lol!
Click to expand...

3 of the worst bottom 5 teams in the entire league standings Vancouver, Ottawa and Montreal are from the former North, and one of the other bottom 5 teams is the expansion Kraken.
 
Mess said:
3 of the worst bottom 5 teams in the entire league standings Vancouver, Ottawa and Montreal are from the former North, and one of the other bottom 5 teams is the expansion Kraken.
Click to expand...

Ottawa and Montreal completely ravaged by injuries and covid. At least try to be honest.
 
  • Like
Reactions: LeafChief
You must log in or register to reply here.

Latest posts

Ad

Ad

Top Bottom