Buffalo Bills Season over. Ow.

The best thing the Bills did this past offseason, though inadvertent, was get younger. That would be my big push:
  • Re-sign Mack, Gilliam, and Johnson, but otherwise let most of the UFAs walk
    • Don't even consider re-signing Douglas, Hamlin, Austin Johnson
    • Only re-sign Cooper if he's dirt cheap
  • Cut Von and either cut or force pay cuts on Daquan and Epenesa
  • Figure out a way to make Knox's cap hit not 14 million
  • Prioritize Benford, Bernard, and Shakir for extensions, consider trading Rousseau if you're not going to be able to pay him too
  • Spam defense in the draft, especially on DL.
  • Other than plugging small holes, use FA to take some value swings on young guys, no more olds
 
The best thing the Bills did this past offseason, though inadvertent, was get younger. That would be my big push:
  • Re-sign Mack, Gilliam, and Johnson, but otherwise let most of the UFAs walk
    • Don't even consider re-signing Douglas, Hamlin, Austin Johnson
    • Only re-sign Cooper if he's dirt cheap
  • Cut Von and either cut or force pay cuts on Daquan and Epenesa
  • Figure out a way to make Knox's cap hit not 14 million
  • Prioritize Benford, Bernard, and Shakir for extensions, consider trading Rousseau if you're not going to be able to pay him too
  • Spam defense in the draft, especially on DL.
  • Other than plugging small holes, use FA to take some value swings on young guys, no more olds
Generally agree — aside for not re-signing Groot. He was excellent this year. And he hasn’t played his best ball yet imo. If his extension is reasonable then you bring him back. He’ll be better with an improved Dline as well.
 
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Generally agree — aside for not re-signing Groot. He was excellent this year. And he hasn’t played his best ball yet imo. If his extension is reasonable then you bring him back. He’ll be better with an improved Dline as well.
His extension will cost over 20 million a year - you still do it? In a vacuum I like him. But if you bring him back you're paying elite money for very good player.
 
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I got all my overreactions out of my system. The truth is we failed on two 4th down conversations in the 4th quarter. Both were close, and plays they needed to make. And they just didn’t.

Neither the offense or defense had their best games. Allen was off the first 27 minutes. The tush push play sucked. And we had some drops. The defense couldn’t generate a decent pass rush, and gave up too many easy TD drives.

BUT, both the offense and defense played good enough to win a game (if the other unit played slightly better)…but they just didn’t win. The last three losses to KC came down to the execution of a few plays, and that’s that. We have just happened to come up short every time, it’s not a big picture issue. It’s literally a couple plays

And I agree the defense is the unit to upgrade. While both units deserve equal blame today, the offense is a much better unit.

It was a wildly successful season, the idea of losing to one team 4 times in the playoffs makes it sting though.
 
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His extension will cost over 20 million a year - you still do it? In a vacuum I like him. But if you bring him back you're paying elite money for very good player.
I’m not suggesting we give him a blank check. But I’d be more than willing to give him an extension that pays him what he’s earned.

Are we’re better off trading him and bringing in someone like Myles..? No. MG is about to be 30. He’ll be hitting the downside of his career while Rousseau be hitting his prime.
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Myles is clearly the better player. But will he be a better player over the next 5 years? IMO, no.
 
I’m not suggesting we give him a blank check. But I’d be more than willing to give him an extension that pays him what he’s earned.

Are we’re better off trading him and bringing in someone like Myles..? No. MG is about to be 30. He’ll be hitting the downside of his career while Rousseau be hitting his prime.
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Myles is clearly the better player. But will he be a better player over the next 5 years? IMO, no.
It's not about Rousseau vs. Myles, for me, it's about Rousseau vs. Benford, Bernard, Cook, and Shakir, all of whom need extensions the same offseason as him. And once you factor in that he will demand the most money, I think I lean towards prioritizing others over him. You can't pay everyone.
 
From a long-term/comprehensive view, great season. Felt like we were playing with house money after beating BAL.

From a short-term view, it feels like ****ing groundhog day every time we go up against KC in the playoffs.

-We have at least a few injuries to significant players or guys are playing hurt, and they're somehow magically at or near full health every ****ing time. Their injury luck throughout this entire run, in terms of postseason player availability vs. how often they get to face banged-up or outright decimated squads, is insane.

-We collectively get out-executed by a small to decent-sized margin on a team-wide scale.

-Spags takes away Allen's easy button options from the jump. We usually can't do the same to Mahomes. This game was more aggravating than some past ones to me because everything just looked super easy for him. First drive? RPOs out the ass for 8 yards a pop.

Oh, you can't get your screen game or QB run game working? Here's Worthy getting at least 5 yards every time he catches the ball behind the line of scrimmage and Mahomes rolling to his right and running for at least 7 whenever he feels like it.

-Refs give KC just enough favorable calls that we can't overcome due to items 1-3, and we lose a one-score game.
 
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The spotting of the Kincaid play right before the failed fourth down still annoys me. Kincaid failing to catch the ball annoys me. Those are the two plays I keep thinking about
I blame Kincaid for the loss.

Not because of those things…because he isn’t dating Beyoncé or whatever music icon would get us the first down we clearly made called correctly
 
The best thing the Bills did this past offseason, though inadvertent, was get younger. That would be my big push:
  • Re-sign Mack, Gilliam, and Johnson, but otherwise let most of the UFAs walk
    • Don't even consider re-signing Douglas, Hamlin, Austin Johnson
    • Only re-sign Cooper if he's dirt cheap
  • Cut Von and either cut or force pay cuts on Daquan and Epenesa
  • Figure out a way to make Knox's cap hit not 14 million
  • Prioritize Benford, Bernard, and Shakir for extensions, consider trading Rousseau if you're not going to be able to pay him too
  • Spam defense in the draft, especially on DL.
  • Other than plugging small holes, use FA to take some value swings on young guys, no more olds
Begging them to invest significant draft capital into a hulking 1T replacement for once.

You rarely have to break the bank for a big run-stuffer in FA, either. Beane's insistence on only having one true big NT year after year--and thus having to dumpster dive for a replacement if he gets hurt--is the main part of his roster-building that consistently confuses me.
 
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The spotting of the Kincaid play right before the failed fourth down still annoys me. Kincaid failing to catch the ball annoys me. Those are the two plays I keep thinking about
I felt like he'd gotten it or was even closer to the line than they spotted him. Reminded me of the Denver game with refs constantly moving the ball back on us
 
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Every single one of these losses to the Chiefs the Bills have been outcoached.
Why is that surprising? Is it that easy to replace Brady / Babbich / McDermott with a staff which is hands-down better than Nagy / Spagnola / Reid?
Every one. But Reid is generational.
Exactly
They're in really good shape to just make the playoffs. Making the SB is a different story. Changes need to be made for that to happen.

It's not an over-reaction when it's been 4+ years in a row of this.
No. THey are in really good shape to be a high playoff seed. Beyond that, high playoff seed teams need luck (turnovers for or against), stay injury free, and face playoff opponents they match up well against.
Need to replace Elam and Hamlin. Could probably stand to replace Douglas and Bishop/Rapp. Need a better DT next to Oliver.

Jesus I’ll live but this feels like shit. We choked.
Douglas has likely aged out / won't be extended/renewed. I don't think Bishop and/or Rapp need to be replaced.
You win and lose against teams like this in the margins and they always come up short. You can win a Super Bowl in any given year with a QB like Allen, but you have to maximize your chances. That can be done in the roster, the management, or the coaching, and maybe they’ll push forward. At a certain point though you have to try more than just running it back again and again.
Bills hardly ran it back again. Beane clearly did not do that this season.
Josh is going home because his defense did worse against the Chiefs than any defense has done against them all season.
Agree.
The best thing the Bills did this past offseason, though inadvertent, was get younger. That would be my big push:
  • Re-sign Mack, Gilliam, and Johnson, but otherwise let most of the UFAs walk
    • Don't even consider re-signing Douglas, Hamlin, Austin Johnson
    • Only re-sign Cooper if he's dirt cheap
  • Cut Von and either cut or force pay cuts on Daquan and Epenesa
  • Figure out a way to make Knox's cap hit not 14 million
  • Prioritize Benford, Bernard, and Shakir for extensions, consider trading Rousseau if you're not going to be able to pay him too
  • Spam defense in the draft, especially on DL.
  • Other than plugging small holes, use FA to take some value swings on young guys, no more olds
Excellent post. Agree with your 1st, 2nd, 3rd bullets.
I'd add Hollins to your list of extensions.
Agree on staying young, not pursuing aging vets.
I'd like the Bills to get another "missile" at safety. Maybe that's Bishop, maybe not.

==================
The Kincaid "non-catch" on 4th and 5... the ball was a wounded duck Allen heaved up there. Kincaid had to dive back a body length and the ball was not spiraling when it reached his hands; it was 90 degrees turned. Yes, he could have caught it, but I'm not going to say he should have caught it.

Bills D-line could have been far more impactful.

REally disliked the refereeing in this one. The non-penalty possession and placement calls against BUF were very lopsided. I also find it hard to believe Alec Anderson failed to report as eligible.

Look at the box score.
Very even game. Every stat.
Play it 9 more times, Bills win 5 and lose 4 more.

Chiefs have shitty uniforms.

As a 1st place team, Bills play five 1st place teams next season. All three other AFC division winners, the cross-conference full-division slate, which obviously includes a division winner, and the Bills 17th game next season is the 1st place Eagles, in the same way the Lions were the 17th game this season.

So the Bills will play this year's Super Bowl winner in HIghmark stadium next season, guaranteed.
 
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Begging them to invest significant draft capital into a hulking 1T replacement for once.

You rarely have to break the bank for a big run-stuffer in FA, either. Beane's insistence on only having one true big NT year after year--and thus having to dumpster dive for a replacement if he gets hurt--is the main part of his roster-building that consistently confuses me.
They usually don't even have one NT. Daquan Jones is hardly a big space eater. And when he's gone out and gotten someone like Linval McDermott barely played him. It's clear McDermott prefers even his 1-tech to be more of a gap shooter than a space clogger. Not sure if he'll ever move off that.
 
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The best thing the Bills did this past offseason, though inadvertent, was get younger. That would be my big push:
  • Re-sign Mack, Gilliam, and Johnson, but otherwise let most of the UFAs walk
    • Don't even consider re-signing Douglas, Hamlin, Austin Johnson
    • Only re-sign Cooper if he's dirt cheap
  • Cut Von and either cut or force pay cuts on Daquan and Epenesa
  • Figure out a way to make Knox's cap hit not 14 million
  • Prioritize Benford, Bernard, and Shakir for extensions, consider trading Rousseau if you're not going to be able to pay him too
  • Spam defense in the draft, especially on DL.
  • Other than plugging small holes, use FA to take some value swings on young guys, no more olds
I'll say more in the new thread that's coming.......(monday or tuesday)

But I am not on the re-sign Bernard train.
 
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