Value of: Sean Walker and Travis Konecny

[hamzarocks]

FWIW, Cowen barely made Pronman’s list of 169 U-23 players.

A medium size fish in a small pool ≠ big fish in a medium or large pool.

Cowan is a top 5 player in the OHL this year

He isnt a medium fish. Pronman can rank him how he wants but Cowan is producing most higher picks and his strengths have always been his motor and effort. High floor guy initially who looks to potentially have a pretty high ceiling now with his dominance.

Plus that list must have guys like Powers or sanderson etc. NHL players

Im talking pure prospects in either CHL, AHL, NCAA, KHL, other Euros

Cowan is top 25 for that prospects listing or close enough

If a team gives a really good young nhl player for 1.5 years of TK then yeah, cant beat that overpayment.

 

[AngryMilkcrates]

Why would the flyers deal TK for a 60% version of him?

You deal a guy like Konency for futures. A high end prospect, a 1st and a bit more.

Debrusk has regressed this year and wants a new deal.

Boston would have to do

Lysell + 1st + 2nd for TK likely retained

Think that offer gets beat though

This made me think.

You're right. Jake is much more of a 100ft player and can play both PP and PK. I'd rather keep him for an extra few months for hammering out a long-term deal.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

DIsagree there

He is older, and not dominating the AHL. Maybe the flyers value hik more which at that pt sure they can create a bidding war

But i dont see a 21 year old Samoskevich who has poor AHL and donuts so far at NHL better than 18 year old Cowan whose 1st in ppg in the OHL. Robertson as a 20 and 21 had better AHL stats than Samoskevich in his 21 year season, but he hasnt transitioned to NHL as we hoped for (better this year) with his value being a ~2nd most likely

Though this ignores the pt... do the panthers even want/need TK? Dont you guys have decisions to make on your big names

Reinhart, Forsling, Montour, Bennett etc. Unless panthers are happy to move on from 1 of those guys shortly TK doesnt make much sense to their team

What would constitute dominating the AHL?
He has 11 goals and 26 pts in 35 games as a rookie.
That's a 20+ goal, 50+ pt pace if he plays 70ish games.
He was nearly a PPG player in NCAA.

I'm not saying Florida would trade for TK but more just wondering why Cowan is better than Samoskevich as of today when OHL is a league lower than both NCAA and AHL.

I get Cowan isn't old enough for AHL but ya I'd think PHI would value Samoskevich higher than Cowan if those were the two players offered as the main piece.

 

[hamzarocks]

What would constitute dominating the AHL?
He has 11 goals and 26 pts in 35 games as a rookie.
That's a 20+ goal, 50+ pt pace if he plays 70ish games.
He was nearly a PPG player in NCAA.

I'm not saying Florida would trade for TK but more just wondering why Cowan is better than Samoskevich as of today when OHL is a league lower than both NCAA and AHL.

I get Cowan isn't old enough for AHL but ya I'd think PHI would value Samoskevich higher than Cowan if those were the two players offered as the main piece.

Guess would depend on the flyers

I thought they would want someone younger who can join them around Mitchkovs entry to the NHL.

I might be underrating Samo in that case. Was basing my valuation on him by Robertson.

He has played really well in the AHL past 3 years in short sample sizes and now is almost 0.5ppg in the NHL with Leefe as his coach (cant develop young players and robertson plays only 10 mins a night b/c keefe keeps overplaying the top guys even when they are having shit games)

Im 99% sure neither the leafs or Panthers make a deal for TK any way haha

Ill say it again, the sabres 100% should make this type of deal

They need to sell 3-4 of;

Savoie
Benson
Kulich
Ostlund
Rosen
2024 1st
2025 1st

Upgrade the NHL team big time with guya like Chychuran, Konency, Saaros

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

Cowan is a top 5 player in the OHL this year

He isnt a medium fish. Pronman can rank him how he wants but Cowan is producing most higher picks and his strengths have always been his motor and effort. High floor guy initially who looks to potentially have a pretty high ceiling now with his dominance.

Plus that list must have guys like Powers or sanderson etc. NHL players

Im talking pure prospects in either CHL, AHL, NCAA, KHL, other Euros

Cowan is top 25 for that prospects listing or close enough

If a team gives a really good young nhl player for 1.5 years of TK then yeah, cant beat that overpayment.

In the 70s by a quick count excluding players that spent most of the year in the NHL this season.

I’d just be careful with the term “elite.” Some organizations don’t have an elite prospect(s). I don’t see Avs fans trying to give that label to Ritchie, who is scoring at a comparable rate and drafted in a similar spot.

Not to say that Cowan couldn’t be a competitive trade asset in this scenario.

 

[Rebels57]

Naw he isnt bringin that much back

Look at Hagel trade. He got 2 1sts and a couple of bad prospects back @50%. Hagel is a bit worse than TK.

Cowan is an elite prospect right now, the best piece in most deals. If you dont want bertuzzi thats fine. Leafa find a suitor for him seperately and trade the 2nd they get from him

2024 1st + Cowan + 2024 2nd for TK@50% thats the max value Konecny would fetch imo at 50% retained

He is only valuable for the next 2 years, after that he gets a gross UFA deal and teams get saddled with a bad LT contract.

LMAO, Hagel isn't close to Konecny. I don't care what his counting stats show on a stacked Lightning team. He's not close.

 

[hamzarocks]

In the 70s by a quick count excluding players that spent most of the year in the NHL this season.

I’d just be careful with the term “elite.” Some organizations don’t have an elite prospect(s). I don’t see Avs fans trying to give that label to Ritchie, who is scoring at a comparable rate and drafted in a similar spot.

Not to say that Cowan couldn’t be a competitive trade asset in this scenario.

Ritchie is a similar prospect and a guy id say is elite himself. Forgot about him tbh

Pronmans list likely includes guys taken hifher than Cowan/Ritchie who aren't having as good seasons as them but have draft pick value/upside (Marco casper, Shane Wright, type of guys)

Cowan/Ritchie arent franchise prospects who you can be assured will be 1Cs/1W/Top2D

But they are pretty safe bet to be Top 6F/Top4D who can contribute heavily at the NHL level once they make the transition over

Ritchie + 2024 1st + 2024 2nd for Konecny@50% is the exact type of deal avs should offer for Konecny

 

[hamzarocks]

LMAO, Hagel isn't close to Konecny. I don't care what his counting stats show on a stacked Lightning team. He's not close.

Tampa isnt stacked

Its a good offense with a top 2 player this year in Kuch who carries their PP and is incredible at EVS too

I dont think Hagel plays with Kucherov much and/or gets a ton of PP1 time

He had 37 in 55 on Chicago a bad team in 2021 showing he can produce similar to konecny this year.

Hagel got 2 1sts but they were expected to be mid 20s and then two low end prospects /young players

 

[JRichard]

Sorry, my bad. But I guess the price for Konecny still would be really high.

Thought you meant 2 firsts since Tippett was a 1st round pick so technically you were not wrong!
At the time of the deal though OT was an underwhelming former 1st in his D+4 year.

 

[GOilers88]

I was thinking something like

2024 1st + 2025 1st + Broberg + Bourgault + Kulak + Foegele. I'd throw in another 2nd or 2 if that's what it took.

My thought is to try to retain Ceci and add Walker to the mix making the right side pretty solid. This would require retention on Philly's part. Not entirely sure who Edmonton throws on the third pair left side, but that seems relatively marginal when adding Konecny as well. Basically I'd pay out the ass to make it happen. But then Edmonton could look to offload Campbell somehow or buy him out this summer clearing up another chunk of cap for next year. Foegele whom I like is looking like he'll earn a decent contract and I don't know if Oilers should do it or not, I'm torn on that one.

Edit: Lots of edits, sorry.

 

[Czechboy]

I think walker will cost a first. I hope my oil are looking into him.

TK should cost the moon and I don't know why the flyers would trade him?

 

[GOilers88]

I love TK but seriously how many players in the past 20 years have been traded for 2 1st round picks?

My guess it would be a 2024 1st rounder and then a former 1st rounder like Broberg or Bourgault + maybe a 2nd round pick depending on retention.


(Mod)

I see it as two late 1st rounders, a couple of decent prospects, and a couple of capable roster players for TK with some retention for a couple of playoffs, and a really good add to deepen the blueline that you could extend or walk away from in the summer.

I think Edmonton should be pushing this year. There's no reason not to. But I'm super high on TK. Holy christ they'd be screaming offensively in front of an even deeper blueline.

I think walker will cost a first. I hope my oil are looking into him.

TK should cost the moon and I don't know why the flyers would trade him?

I get that Philly probably wants to keep him. But stranger things have happened, so hypothetically I'm just curious if I'd be close from Philly fans perspective. I don't expect it to happen but it's a move that would immediately make the Oilers very solid contenders imo. Let's see some balls of steel in Edmonton and just go for it.

 

[Faceboner]

I don’t think the Oilers realistically have what it would take to pry both of those pieces out of Philly in one deal.

Bourgualt, 1st, 2nd, broberg, Lavoie and akey

 

[SnS]

None of these offers really entice me as a Flyers fan. But I also don’t want to see TK traded unless the other team is giving up something that will hurt them.


Flyers are still technically in the playoff hunt. But I think they’re cooked cause of their bottom 6 and goalie. Ersson isn’t ready for a 1A workload.

 

[Czechboy]

I see it as two late 1st rounders, a couple of decent prospects, and a couple of capable roster players for TK with some retention for a couple of playoffs, and a really good add to deepen the blueline that you could extend or walk away from in the summer.

I think Edmonton should be pushing this year. There's no reason not to. But I'm super high on TK. Holy christ they'd be screaming offensively in front of an even deeper blueline.


I get that Philly probably wants to keep him. But stranger things have happened, so hypothetically I'm just curious if I'd be close from Philly fans perspective. I don't expect it to happen but it's a move that would immediately make the Oilers very solid contenders imo. Let's see some balls of steel in Edmonton and just go for it.

Exactly this.. this kind of player and trade is what we need to bump up the d core a little.

 

[FromOyVey2Matvei]

Bourgualt, 1st, 2nd, broberg, Lavoie and akey

Lot of trash for 1 star and 1 extremely high quality rental defenseman.

 

[Alex K]

Bourgualt, 1st, 2nd, broberg, Lavoie and akey

Well, I'm not a prophet but I see if Briere eccepts this deal, there will be riots in Philadelphia.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

TK would be the standard blue chip prospect + 1st + roster player (for cap reasons). The first will most likely be a later one, so I’d imagine the ask of for a roster player would be a goodish youngish player

 

[McDoused]

Well, I'm not a prophet but I see if Briere eccepts this deal, there will be riots in Philadelphia.

Flyer fans would Riot if they got a 1st round pick, two former first round picks, a 2nd round pick and two former 2nd round picks? That's 6 assets. When was the last time a guy was traded for 6 assets and rioted?

Just ridiculous.

 

[SnS]

Flyer fans would Riot if they got a 1st round pick, two former first round picks, a 2nd round pick and two former 2nd round picks? That's 6 assets. When was the last time a guy was traded for 6 assets and rioted?

Just ridiculous.

I don’t think they’re good assets, personally.

 

[Big Daddy Cane]

The Oilers asset pool is lacking in wow futures. Not a criticism; that happens to contending teams. It's future late 1sts and drafted late 1sts. The guys from the end of the rebuild, Broberg (D+5) and Holloway (D+4), have lost their luster. The Oilers can certainly compete if the Flyers make him available. None of those assets is providing motivation otherwise. Hence, the idea of overwhelming quantity.

There was a flurry of notable rental+1 trades 4-6 years ago: McDonagh+Miller for Namestnikov+Howden+Hajek+1st+Conditional 1st (turned out to be a 2nd) and that complicated Brassard three teamer in 2018, Granlund for Fiala and Muzzin for 1st+Durzi+Grundstrom in 2019, Coleman (because of his contract) for 1st+Foote in 2020. Not any since, however. Meier and Jeannot were only defacto rental+1s; both re-signed with the acquiring clubs as RFAs.

 

[Faceboner]

Lot of trash for 1 star and 1 extremely high quality rental defenseman.

Would you want holloway from them too?

 

[Alex K]

Flyer fans would Riot if they got a 1st round pick, two former first round picks, a 2nd round pick and two former 2nd round picks? That's 6 assets. When was the last time a guy was traded for 6 assets and rioted?

Just ridiculous.

Sorry, but "former 1st round pick" is not an actual quality.

 

[Seachd]

There was a flurry of notable rental+1 trades 4-6 years ago: McDonagh+Miller for Namestnikov+Howden+Hajek+1st+Conditional 1st (turned out to be a 2nd) and that complicated Brassard three teamer in 2018, Granlund for Fiala and Muzzin for 1st+Durzi+Grundstrom in 2019, Coleman (because of his contract) for 1st+Foote in 2020. Not any since, however. Meier and Jeannot were only defacto rental+1s; both re-signed with the acquiring clubs as RFAs.

Although last year the Oilers got a more impactful player than Konecny, who wasn’t a rental, for a great price. Comparing trades doesn’t always work out.

 

[Nabrules]

Friedman has essentially hinted a couple time recently that PHI is going to sign Konecny to an extension when he’s eligible on July 1.

My guess 8.5 X 7 years