Confirmed with Link: Scott Arniel named Winnipeg Jets head coach

[Buffdog]

Yes - and no.

Being stuck in an endless effort to take the next step is pretty much the same whether it is that endless rebuild or that endless weak PO performance.

They are not identical, obviously. I prefer good regular season, bad PO to bad regular season, no PO. But both are stuck in mud with the tires spinning.

Starting from either position, you want to see movement in the direction of the goal, not stagnation.

The argument against a rebuild is always the same. Look at the teams whose rebuilds fail over very extended periods. But not all rebuilds fail. At least the bottom feeders can get excited for the draft and the potential of their young players.

Like almost anything in life, progression is rarely linear. It would be unrealistic to expect 114 points and 3 playoff wins next season

It's OK to take minor steps back in order to take major steps forward. Even though the playoffs left a sour taste in pur mouths, what the team accomplished during the regular season shouldn't be dismissed. When compared with previous seasons, the team certainly seems to be trending in the right direction

 

[Maukkis]

Adams goes into last season with no goalie...how does he keep his job?
This team makes the playoffs with an average goalie.

They received above-average goaltending, mostly attributable to the goalie who played the most games for them in 22-23. Maybe you should do a little bit of research before posting.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't think they'll hit 110 again. Personally, I think they overachieved in the regular season and underacheived in the playoffs

That said, there are a lot of question marks between now and October with regards to the line up, most specifically Ehlers and the defense. It's too early to make any predictions... but if you held my feet to the fire, I'd say they'd finish 3rd in the central (but could be anywhere from 2nd to wildcard)

Moving forward, their obvious and most critical yardstick by which their progress will be measured will be in the playoffs

If we accept that the only thing that matters in the regular season is making the PO, where do you see potential PO improvement?

PO improvement could be defined as going out in a hard fought 7th game regardless of rd. Or it could be defined by what rd we go out in. Or it could be defined by winning the last game we play.

If we were a young, up and coming team incremental improvement each year would be progress toward the goal. We are not that. Barring some unexpected roster improvement this season should have been our best shot. Our core players should be expected to be just a little less good each year from now on until they age out. Can our young players take over from that core and be better? Or will it just be a transition over time with no real improvement?

Do Lambert, Divincentiis and Salomonson have the potential to match and replace Scheifele, Hellebuyck and Morrissey? McG, Barlow and Chibrikov will need to step in to replace Ehlers, KC and Lowry. One player is a little better than the one he replaces and another is a little worse. Are we equal to today's roster? A little better? A little worse? I would guess worse because I don't see those first 3 equaling the players they have to replace. Of course a lot of unpredictable things will happen so none of that is carved in stone.

 

[GaryPoppins]

Imagine being a fan of the Buffalo Sabres

I’d swap our position for Buffalo’s in a heartbeat. A solid coach and NHL average goaltending and you’re a shoe-in. They have an ELITE pipeline.

 

[Channelcat]

I’d swap our position for Buffalo’s in a heartbeat. A solid coach and NHL average goaltending and you’re a shoe-in. They have an ELITE pipeline.

I thought they'd be contending by now. Perhaps if they had bothered to find a G.

 

[SensibleGuy]

Like almost anything in life, progression is rarely linear. It would be unrealistic to expect 114 points and 3 playoff wins next season

It's OK to take minor steps back in order to take major steps forward. Even though the playoffs left a sour taste in pur mouths, what the team accomplished during the regular season shouldn't be dismissed. When compared with previous seasons, the team certainly seems to be trending in the right direction

Sure, but that's pretty much been the story since 2020.

 

[Buffdog]

Sure, but that's pretty much been the story since 2020.

Huh?

2019 -2020 - 92 point pace (80 points in 71 games due to covid)
2020 - 2021 92 point pace (56 points in 61 games)
2021 - 2022 89 points
2022 - 2023 96 points
2023 - 2024 110 points

The major regular season improvement from this season over last season is that they avoided the second half collapse (despite a losing skid).

Any way you want to look at it, the team is heading in the right direction during the regular season. It's a much better story now than in 2020

The next realistic step is playoff success. Let's see if they can get it done. There aren't many teams that go from 20th in the league (as the Jets did in 2020) to winning the cup in 4 years, so I'm not sure what you're expecting

 

[Buffdog]

If we accept that the only thing that matters in the regular season is making the PO, where do you see potential PO improvement?

PO improvement could be defined as going out in a hard fought 7th game regardless of rd. Or it could be defined by what rd we go out in. Or it could be defined by winning the last game we play.

If we were a young, up and coming team incremental improvement each year would be progress toward the goal. We are not that. Barring some unexpected roster improvement this season should have been our best shot. Our core players should be expected to be just a little less good each year from now on until they age out. Can our young players take over from that core and be better? Or will it just be a transition over time with no real improvement?

Do Lambert, Divincentiis and Salomonson have the potential to match and replace Scheifele, Hellebuyck and Morrissey? McG, Barlow and Chibrikov will need to step in to replace Ehlers, KC and Lowry. One player is a little better than the one he replaces and another is a little worse. Are we equal to today's roster? A little better? A little worse? I would guess worse because I don't see those first 3 equaling the players they have to replace. Of course a lot of unpredictable things will happen so none of that is carved in stone.

Lots of good questions and I guess only time will tell.

As for judging playoff success, I think that performance is as important as outcome (as you alluded to). I doubt the Avs are super pumped right now just because they made the second round since their first round win was basically a walkover vs us.

The Jets need to undestand that the playoffs are a different beast and you need to play the game differently to have success. People have shit on the teams post season pressers, but many of them seemed to acknowledge that. Let's see what, if anything, that translates to

 

[LowLefty]

Lots of good questions and I guess only time will tell.

As for judging playoff success, I think that performance is as important as outcome (as you alluded to). I doubt the Avs are super pumped right now just because they made the second round since their first round win was basically a walkover vs us.

The Jets need to undestand that the playoffs are a different beast and you need to play the game differently to have success. People have shit on the teams post season pressers, but many of them seemed to acknowledge that. Let's see what, if anything, that translates to

Many of them do understand (and have acknowledged) that they need to bring more to the PO's - it was refreshing to hear some of the comments.

 

[KingBogo]

I’d swap our position for Buffalo’s in a heartbeat. A solid coach and NHL average goaltending and you’re a shoe-in. They have an ELITE pipeline.

I sure wouldn't, they have now missed the playoffs for 13 straight seasons, and took a big step backwards again last year. They now have a whole generation of players who have never experienced even the smallest whiff of any sort of team success. Not even mushy middle regular season squeak into the playoffs lowest bar of success. Their disfunction goes far deeper than poor goaltending.

 

[gojetsgo]

I’d swap our position for Buffalo’s in a heartbeat. A solid coach and NHL average goaltending and you’re a shoe-in. They have an ELITE pipeline.

for the past like 6 off seasons people have been talking about how they are going to take a major step, but hey I mean bound to be right sometime...

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Lots of good questions and I guess only time will tell.

As for judging playoff success, I think that performance is as important as outcome (as you alluded to). I doubt the Avs are super pumped right now just because they made the second round since their first round win was basically a walkover vs us.

The Jets need to undestand that the playoffs are a different beast and you need to play the game differently to have success. People have shit on the teams post season pressers, but many of them seemed to acknowledge that. Let's see what, if anything, that translates to

They are no longer the PO experience lacking team that they were in 2015. They should have sufficient PO experience now to know the level of intensity that is needed. Aside, I think that intensity is the best word to describe what we see from teams that go on deep runs. Some use compete level but when I watch PO games it is intensity that keeps coming to mind.

I don't know why Jets seem to lack that. Talk to any one of them and I am sure they will emphasize how badly they want a Cup. Even how badly they want to play in an elimination game in the Cup final. It is their holy grail, the object of their quest. And yet, they lack the intensity to match their opponents to get there.

 

[bustamente]

I sure wouldn't, they have now missed the playoffs for 13 straight seasons, and took a big step backwards again last year. They now have a whole generation of players who have never experienced even the smallest whiff of any sort of team success. Not even mushy middle regular season squeak into the playoffs lowest bar of success. Their disfunction goes far deeper than poor goaltending.

for the past like 6 off seasons people have been talking about how they are going to take a major step, but hey I mean bound to be right sometime...

Plus they recycled their own former HC

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Like almost anything in life, progression is rarely linear. It would be unrealistic to expect 114 points and 3 playoff wins next season

It's OK to take minor steps back in order to take major steps forward. Even though the playoffs left a sour taste in pur mouths, what the team accomplished during the regular season shouldn't be dismissed. When compared with previous seasons, the team certainly seems to be trending in the right direction

Of course it doesn't need to be that regular progress each and every year. But losing the last 4 games in a row every PO sure looks like stuck in the mud to me.

The regular season was great, mostly. Then the PO came along to show that the regular season was a mirage.

What concerns me now is that I can't see a trend in the right direction. The players we count on the most are all past their peaks. The drop offs will probably be quite small for a couple of years but this was probably our best chance to compete with Scheif and Helle.

All of the speculation here seems to be that we will lose Ehlers and Dillon and maybe DeMelo. The Ehlers return might replace 1 Dman but we are still left with a net loss. Perfetti might pick up some of the loss. Maybe there will be a rookie or even 2. But where is the needed improvement? A full season from Vilardi might help.

 

[DannyGallivan]

In regards to the Commodore comments if they are not “fake news”

Mike used up his coach hating chips with Babcock. I get why any player could have an issue with Babs but when Mike trashes a second coach like this for his usage he comes across like a whiny Douche bag.

Yeah I saw that already. Commodore just sounds like a real asshole, even if he’s right. He’s also shat all over Babcock… he’s a world class whiner and a piece of shit himself.

Having said that, I’m not that confident in the Arniel decision myself. He has never stood out as a capable coach before. Just another alumni guy. Hopefully he can prove himself this time.

 

[10Ducky10]

They received above-average goaltending, mostly attributable to the goalie who played the most games for them in 22-23. Maybe you should do a little bit of research before posting.

Their "number one goalie" had a .910 sv%.
Comrie (the highest paid goalie at 1.8m) and a rookie were the backups.
He should lose his job.

 

[SensibleGuy]

Huh?

2019 -2020 - 92 point pace (80 points in 71 games due to covid)
2020 - 2021 92 point pace (56 points in 61 games)
2021 - 2022 89 points
2022 - 2023 96 points
2023 - 2024 110 points

The major regular season improvement from this season over last season is that they avoided the second half collapse (despite a losing skid).

Any way you want to look at it, the team is heading in the right direction during the regular season. It's a much better story now than in 2020

The next realistic step is playoff success. Let's see if they can get it done. There aren't many teams that go from 20th in the league (as the Jets did in 2020) to winning the cup in 4 years, so I'm not sure what you're expecting

no what I meant was we had our "step back" after getting to round 3 in 2018/19. That appears to have been this core's peak. The step back isn't generally supposed to last 6 seasons. Our next realistic step of PO success really should have happened a few seasons ago already. I don't have quite the same sense of conviction you do that last season was any big step in the right direction. I'd say we barely avoided the second half collapse of the previous season, and we arguably looked worse in the post-season than the previous year.

 

[surixon]

They simply put need to have learned from being embarrassed. Pretty much everyone needs to up their effort and the coaching needs to stay on top of things and optimize what they can control.

I am assuming we will get the press conference tomorrow. It will be interesting to hear what Arniel and Chevy have to say.

 

[Buffdog]

Sonyohr

no what I meant was we had our "step back" after getting to round 3 in 2018/19. That appears to have been this core's peak. The step back isn't generally supposed to last 6 seasons. Our next realistic step of PO success really should have happened a few seasons ago already. I don't have quite the same sense of conviction you do that last season was any big step in the right direction. I'd say we barely avoided the second half collapse of the previous season, and we arguably looked worse in the post-season than the previous year.

So you're just talking playoff success?

Why do you think the team is improving in the regular season but not the playoffs? I'm legitimately curious what both you and others think. It stands to reason that having a team that is successful over 82 games *should* increase the likelihood of winning in the playoffs, but history doesn't always show that.

Based on the fact that 3 of the 4 teams still playing finished in the top 5 in the league this year, it seems like a good strategy to build a team that has success during the season. The big question is why it hasn't translated for the Jets. Clearly its not because rhe team make up sucks, otherwise we wouldn't have finished 4th

 

[Maukkis]

Their "number one goalie" had a .910 sv%.
Comrie (the highest paid goalie at 1.8m) and a rookie were the backups.
He should lose his job.

Correct - league average came in at .898 this year, according to Hockeyreference. A pretty sizable gap, if you ask me. Also, that rookie backup finished 5th in GSAX/60 among all goalies with 20+ games (there were 65 of them in total, so you could argue that it covers basically all starters and backups). And even if you use the opposite metrics for each goalie, both of them still performed above league average. The only inarguable mistake they did was trusting Comrie, but they also realised their mistake much quicker than previously and let the youth take over.

They handled their goaltending well this year. Your argument stands on absolutely nothing. If you want a reason to fire Adams, that would be trading their high picks for overpaid veterans like Pionk and Iafallo... oh wait.

 

[10Ducky10]

Correct - league average came in at .898 this year, according to Hockeyreference. A pretty sizable gap, if you ask me. Also, that rookie backup finished 5th in GSAX/60 among all goalies with 20+ games (there were 65 of them in total, so you could argue that it covers basically all starters and backups). And even if you use the opposite metrics for each goalie, both of them still performed above league average. The only inarguable mistake they did was trusting Comrie, but they also realised their mistake much quicker than previously and let the youth take over.

They handled their goaltending well this year. Your argument stands on absolutely nothing. If you want a reason to fire Adams, that would be trading their high picks for overpaid veterans like Pionk and Iafallo... oh wait.

Ehlers is a God in your eyes so maybe we can trade him to play goal for them?

Going into a season with Comrie, UPL and a rookie as your goalies is reason enough to be fired.
How much better would they have been with a starter with some experience not someone like Comrie or UPL with all of his 46 games played not to mention throwing Levi to the wolves as a rookie.
Many reasons to fire Adams, goaltending is just one of them.

 

[BobTheSolarsystem]

I thought they'd be contending by now. Perhaps if they had bothered to find a G.

Bross gonna get PAID this summer... Between Jersey and Buffalo he'll end up with $6-7 mill for five years

If Edmonton doesn't win the lottery, their rebuild succeeds around McDavid instead they got asshole Eichel... then panicked and decided to build a team around Jeff Skinner

Brendan Dillon would be a really solid move to mentor their d-core but not sure they have the $$... maybe throw some $$ at Necas and bring in Stenlund to teach their kids how to win a face-off.

Ruff is a good place for them to start...

 

[Maukkis]

Ehlers is a God in your eyes so maybe we can trade him to play goal for them?

Going into a season with Comrie, UPL and a rookie as your goalies is reason enough to be fired.
How much better would they have been with a starter with some experience not someone like Comrie or UPL with all of his 46 games played not to mention throwing Levi to the wolves as a rookie.
Many reasons to fire Adams, goaltending is just one of them.

You argued that they would have made the playoffs with an average goalie, and I pointed out that they had an above-average goaltender in net. I taught you something you clearly didn't know (or understand) - you should be thankful, not annoyed.

 

[Buffdog]

Correct - league average came in at .898 this year, according to Hockeyreference. A pretty sizable gap, if you ask me. Also, that rookie backup finished 5th in GSAX/60 among all goalies with 20+ games (there were 65 of them in total, so you could argue that it covers basically all starters and backups). And even if you use the opposite metrics for each goalie, both of them still performed above league average. The only inarguable mistake they did was trusting Comrie, but they also realised their mistake much quicker than previously and let the youth take over.

They handled their goaltending well this year. Your argument stands on absolutely nothing. If you want a reason to fire Adams, that would be trading their high picks for overpaid veterans like Pionk and Iafallo... oh wait.

Pionk and Iafallo... and Heinola and Vilardi and Kupari and 37th overall

Plus 7 years of Trouba on cheap contracts

Plus 4 years of Laine on cheap contracts

Plus 3 years of Dubois

I think Chevy got decent value out of those two draft picks. Would have been even better had Laine not been a typical "high draft pick Finnish bust"

 

[LowLefty]

They simply put need to have learned from being embarrassed. Pretty much everyone needs to up their effort and the coaching needs to stay on top of things and optimize what they can control.

I am assuming we will get the press conference tomorrow. It will be interesting to hear what Arniel and Chevy have to say.

I'll predict Chevy's comments right now -
He'll say they had a great reg season and fell short in the PO's - and now they need to spend the offseason working on that 10% increase in skill / conditioning / whatever.
He will not come out and state they need to step up their level of compete - if he does, I will be beyond shocked.

I think every team learns from their failures - but I do not think every team does what they need to do to over come those failures. And I'm not referring to teams that simply do not have a lineup that will take them all the way - I'm referring to 110 pt reg season teams that fall on their face when the chips are down.

I found KC's post season comments very encouraging - he acknowledged that one of the major parts of the process that the players control, is the level of compete they bring to the game. It's not a learning curve - you either bring it or you don't. All of these players watch what other top teams bring to the PO's - just like the fans. It's no secret and doesn't require any special skills or insight to understand what these top teams are bringing. So the hard part is not understanding / learning - it's actually following through and doing what needs to be done.